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Geopolitics Watch

🇺🇸 — President Trump is glazing the hell out of himself, nothing of note on Venezuela.

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🇺🇸 — President Trump has started his speech, and there is a lot of criticisms against illegal immigrants, though there is nothing about Venezuela.

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🇺🇸🇻🇪 — No irregular movements shown on FlightRadar24. If a strike comes, we will likely not be able to predict it through FlightRadar24.

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🇻🇪🛫 — Takeoff of two Venezuelan F-16s.

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❗️🇺🇸🇻🇪 — Right-wing anti-interventionist sources Tucker Carlson and Antiwar.com are claiming that President Trump will announce that the US will launch a war against Venezuela during his address to the American people tonight at 9 PM EST, approximately four hours and fifteen minutes from now. Tucker Carlson cited a member of Congress, and Antiwar.com cited a "high-ranking source on Capitol Hill".

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🇮🇱🤝🇪🇺 —The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen:

Jewish history is the history of Europe. Jewish culture is a European culture, and Jewish life must be able to thrive so that Europe can fully prosper.

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🇺🇸🇻🇪🕊 — President Maduro wore a hat exclaiming "No War Yes Peace" in the same red as President Trump's signature "Make America Great Again" hat today.

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🇹🇩 — Reports of a failed coup attempt in Chad against President Mahamat Déby.

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🇦🇪🇮🇱🔹 — The French intelligence outlet Intelligence Online reported that the United Arab Emirates is the controlling party behind the massive defense deal announced by the Israeli company Elbit Systems about a month ago. The deal, valued at approximately $2.3 billion, is the largest in the company’s history.

⚜️ @TheSimurgh313

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❗️🇺🇸🇻🇪 — President Trump has designated the entire Venezuelan government a "Foreign Terrorist Organisation" and has ordered a blockade of all oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

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🏴🇦🇺— Dashcam footage also shows the Bondi Beach attackers car with an IS flag draped over the windshield, and their first two victims being shot.

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The next large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack will probably take place tomorrow morning, between 00:00 and 08:00 Kyiv time.

It won't be anything special - just another normal-sized attack involving strategic bombers, ballistic missiles and Geran-2 drones.

3 Tu-160M strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They will then fly from Belaya Airbase to their launch lines in western Russia in order to carry out their combat sorties.

The 2 (not 3) Tu-95MS strategic bombers which redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, yesterday have subsequently flown to Olenya Airbase where they will take off from during the next attack. 1 other Tu-95MS already stationed at Olenya was also equipped with missiles (delivered by an IL-76MD cargo plane) today.

1 Tu-95MS stationed at Engels-2 Airbase is also equipped with missiles.

Thus, there are at least 4 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160M strategic bombers equipped and ready for usage. If Russia were to use this number of bombers, the number of Kh-101 cruise missiles launched would likely be somewhere around 30-40, although this is a very rough estimate.

There are no changes to the MiG-31K fighters stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. 4-6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles are expected to be used.

Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles will be used as well. Additional deliveries of Iskander-Ms to OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast has been recorded.

At least 500 Geran-2 drones are expected to be used too, which have been accumulated at all major launch sites surrounding Ukraine.

The main targets for the strike will likely be energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine (highest threat to Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts) and in Kyiv Oblast.

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🇺🇸🇧🇷🗽 — A replica of the Statue of Liberty right next to a McDonald's in Guaíba, Brazil collapsed from strong winds, nearly hitting a car.

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🇹🇷 — A Turkish F-16 shot down an unidentified drone that arrived from the Black Sea direction. According to the Turkish Ministry of Defense, the drone had "gone out of control". The drone was likely either Russian or Ukrainian.

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🇺🇸 — Representative Thomas Massie on President Trump mocking Rob Reiner's murder by stabbing:

Regardless of how you felt about Rob Reiner, this is inappropriate and disrespectful discourse about a man who was just brutally murdered. I guess my elected GOP colleagues, the VP, and White House staff will just ignore it because they’re afraid? I challenge anyone to defend it.

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇵🇸— President Trump claims to have "ended" Iran's nuclear power and ended the war in Gaza, despite Israel's regular ceasefire violations.

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🇺🇸🇻🇪 — Representative Carlos A. Gimenez:

AND IF DESPOTISM RAISES ITS VOICE
FOLLOW THE EXAMPLE THAT CARACAS GAVE!

The moment of the brave people has arrived.

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🇺🇸🛫 — Two hours ago, F-22 Raptors took off from Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, United States in three waves of 2-4 fighter jets, accompanied by at least one KC-135 Stratotanker.

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🇺🇸📁 — The Epstein files are expected to release on Friday, per the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

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🇮🇱🤝🇪🇬 — Netanyahu has approved a 35$ billion gas deal with Egypt, the largest gas deal Israel has ever signed.

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🇪🇨🤝🇺🇸 — The US Air Force is deploying to Ecuador for a "temporary operation" for anti-drug trafficking purposes at Eloy Anfaro International Airport, despite Ecuador's population rejecting the presence of foreign bases on Ecuadorian territory in a referendum last month.

Eloy Anfaro International Airport is a dual civilian airport and Air Force base that previously housed US personnel until Ecuador banned foreign bases in 2009. Corresponding with this deployment, six US Air Force C-17A Globemaster cargo planes have been recorded flying to Eloy Anfaro International Airport since December 13.

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🇫🇷⚡️- An African leader called Emmanuel Macron this Sunday in a panic, believing France was undergoing a coup d'Etat.

In reality, the African leader had seen an AI video of a fake reporter claiming the Elysée had been seized by an armed group led by a colonel.

Emmanuel Macron told this story to medias today, keeping the African caller anonymous, to emphasize the dangers of fake news online. The French President added "It made us laugh! 12 million views!" and formally asked Facebook to take down the video.

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🇺🇸🇩🇴🇻🇪 — Four more USAF KC-135 Stratotankers have been spotted at Aeropuerto Internacional Las Américas, bringing the total number of tankers present up to ten.

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Don't forget what's supposed to come out on Friday... 📁

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🇺🇦⚡️ — At today’s Ramstein meeting, 15 countries pledged new or reaffirmed military aid for Ukraine, with a strong focus on air defense, drones, and artillery:

🇩🇰 Denmark: €250m for drones, air defense, aviation, and PURL

🇳🇴 Norway: ~$7bn in military aid, covering air defense and artillery initiatives

🇬🇧 UK: £600m for air defense, partly funded by frozen Russian assets

🇩🇪 Germany: €11.5bn for air defense (Patriot, IRIS-T), drones, and artillery

🇳🇱 Netherlands: €700m for drones, including Ukrainian-made UAVs

🇱🇹 Lithuania: €220m+ (≥0.25% of GDP) for PURL and coalition efforts

🇨🇦 Canada: CAD 30 million for drones and missiles, including AIM-9

🇪🇪 Estonia: €142m (0.25% of GDP) plus €9m for the IT Coalition

🇱🇻 Latvia: €110m (0.25% of GDP) for drones, electronic warfare, and PURL

🇱🇺 Luxembourg: €100m in direct aid plus €15m to PURL

🇵🇱 Poland: 155mm artillery shells

🇵🇹 Portugal: €10m for drones

🇲🇪🇳🇿 Montenegro & New Zealand: Contributions to PURL

🇨🇿 Czech Republic: Financing for 760,000 artillery shells

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🏴🇦🇺— Daily Mail reports: The perpetrators of the Bondi Beach attack in Australia spent a month in an IS - East Asia Province camp in the Philippines and carried out their operation mere weeks after their return.

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🇺🇸🐊⚡️- James Fishback has doubled down on comments made praising supporters of Nick Fuentes, in a post made on X.

James Fishback is the CEO of an investment firm and is running to challenge Congressman Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial elections. Donalds has been endorsed by virtually the entire Republican establishment, including by President Trump himself, in the race to succeed Ron DeSantis as Governor of Florida.

Despite the massive endorsements for Donalds and the sweeping personal as well as political attacks on Fishback, Google Trends indicates that Fishback has far more interest among the Florida population than Donalds, and online polls show Fishback with an 8% lead over Donalds in the Republican primaries; incredible considering the primaries are more than 9 months away.

Fishback is running on a campaign of "Florida First," with a heavy focus on reducing immigration and the number of H1-B visas that Florida allows.

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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: 'We wiped out the Iran nuclear threat.'

@Middle_East_Spectator

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🇺🇸 — According to Grok AI, nearly a quarter of Senator Ted Cruz's (R-TX) posts this year on X have been about either Israel, Jews, Jewish holidays, or anti-Semitism, despite Jews making up just 0.6% of Texas's population. Senator Cruz has received at least $1.8M from the Zionist lobby in the United States.

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📝 The ridiculous incompetence of US law intelligence agencies is on full display once again after the fiasco in finding Charlie Kirk's alleged shooter Tyler Robinson: Hundreds of cameras and only one still image released, and one has already been falsely arrested with his name released by the press before he was released from custody. What does the US pay Palantir all this money for?

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