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Researcher & writer based in Hong Kong. Former academic. Longform articles archived at https://lauraruggeri.substack.com and https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com. Email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
Russia's FSB Foiled Ukrainian and British Plot to Hijack a MiG-31
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has announced it successfully thwarted an alleged plot by Ukrainian and British intelligence services to hijack a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet armed with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile. According to the FSB, the plan aimed to provoke a major international incident by directing the aircraft toward NATO territory, where it could be intercepted and destroyed.
“Thanks to the measures taken, the plans of Ukrainian and British intelligence to stage a large-scale provocation have been disrupted,” the FSB stated in its official release.
The agency further revealed that Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate had attempted to recruit Russian military pilots, offering up to $3 million and the promise of Western citizenship. In one case, a navigator was allegedly instructed to kill or incapacitate the pilot during the hijacking attempt.
The operation reportedly involved flying the MiG-31 to a NATO base in Constanța, Romania, where it would be shot down by allied air defense systems — a move intended to escalate tensions and generate global headlines.
The FSB also implicated individuals affiliated with Bellingcat, claiming they played a role in the scheme. One pilot recounted being contacted last autumn by a man identifying himself as Sergei Lugovsky, who presented a press card and offered payment for military consultations. The pilot declined further interaction.
“I believe the intent behind contacting me was to compromise my position and later exploit it for intelligence purposes,” the pilot said.
Russia 24 later aired an audio recording, allegedly of a Ukrainian intelligence officer briefing the pilot on how to execute the hijacking — including specific altitude and speed parameters. The officer reportedly assured him that “there’s nothing difficult about it.” (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
Washington is trying to address the problematic asynchrony of those EU governments and institutions that are still following the Dem, globalist script. The Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative think tank and architect of the controversial Project 2025 aimed at dismantling and rebuilding the administrative state is now extending its influence across Europe. Under the banner “Make Europe Great Again” (MEGA), the organization is forging ties with right-wing movements throughout Europe. Steve Bannon had tried that during Trump's first term, but with mixed results.
According to Politico, the Foundation’s outreach focuses on culturally charged issues: opposition to abortion and LGBT activism, resistance to gender ideology, criticism of migration policies, and efforts to counter what they call "Chinese influence." But the agenda goes deeper. Conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic are exploring the transfer of current American-style initiatives to Europe, including reforms to media policy.
In the past year alone, Heritage has held seven officially registered meetings with members of the European Parliament — a sharp increase from just one meeting over the previous five years. This shift signals a strategic pivot from passive observation to active political engagement. Beyond formal channels, the Foundation has also arranged informal meetings, including with three deputies from Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party.
By 2025, Heritage had established regular contact with a network of national-conservative groups across Europe. These include Hungary’s Mathias Corvinus Collegium, linked to Viktor Orbán’s government; Poland’s Ordo Iuris Institute, aligned with Catholic fundamentalism; Italy’s FareFuturo Institute and Brothers of Italy; France’s Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen; Germany’s AfD via Patriots for Europe; and right-wing parties in Spain and the Czech Republic interested in Project 2025’s blueprint.
In October, Heritage co-hosted a conference on Europe’s demographic decline at Silvio Berlusconi’s former residence in Rome. The event featured key figures such as Roger Severino, Heritage’s Vice President and a leading voice in the US anti-abortion movement; Italy’s Family Minister Eugenia Roccella; the Deputy Speaker of the Italian Senate; and heads of conservative think tanks.
For Europe’s right-wing factions, Heritage offers a gateway to Trump’s inner circle. For the Foundation, Europe represents fertile ground to expand its ideological footprint. While the success of Project 2025 remains uncertain even within the US, the growing alignment between European conservatives and Trumpist doctrine suggests a deepening transatlantic resonance — one that could reshape not only the battle against Brussels-style globalism but also the EU's geopolitical stance. In short, US conservatives are trying to refashion American hegemony, put the right pieces in place and set the stage for a transatlantic, coordinated action against China. @LauraRuHK https://www.politico.eu/article/the-heritage-foundation-goes-from-maga-to-mega-make-europe-great-again-donald-trump-us-influence/
US government shutdown forces some overseas bases to stop paying workers. Some European countries have been forced to fund US military bases themselves due to the government shutdown in the US. Thousands of people working at overseas bases in Europe have had their salaries interrupted since the shutdown began almost six weeks ago. In some cases, governments hosting the US bases have stepped in to foot the bill, expecting Washington to eventually make good. In others, including in Italy and Portugal, people have simply kept working unpaid as the gridlock in Washington drags on.
“It’s an absurd situation because nobody has responses, nobody feels responsible,” said Angelo Zaccaria, a union coordinator at the Aviano Air Base in northeastern Italy.
“This is having dramatic effects on us Italian workers,” he told The Associated Press. In Germany, the government has stepped in to pay the salaries of nearly 11,000 local employees that work on US military bases, the nation’s finance ministry said in a statement. (Source: AP) @LauraRuHK
Britain’s deep involvement in the Ukraine conflict is not just ideological; it is a calculated response to severe domestic weaknesses and a deliberate strategy to secure influence.
War fuels the British survival machine—a seamless web of intelligence apparatchiks, bureaucrats, generals, PR and media specialists, bankers, and academics, fused into an entity that devours crises and excretes power. Post-empire, Britain mastered the art of adaptation: colonies yielded to offshore havens and shadow networks; Brexit birthed a militarized cordon against Russia, stretching from Norway's fjords to the Baltic shores. Disasters do not dismantle this apparatus—they nourish it, transforming rot into leverage.
War revives a defence-industrial base that had been hollowed out by decades of deindustrialisation. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review explicitly labels the military-industrial complex a “growth engine” for the first time since 1945. Defence spending is rising toward 2.5 % of GDP (£66 billion annually), with an extra £11 billion injected since 2022 and new orders up 25 %. Companies like BAE Systems and Thales are receiving multi-billion-pound contracts, underwritten by UK Export Finance and City banks. War-related procurement is now one of the few reliable sources of high-value manufacturing jobs and export revenue.
Through war London secures geopolitical relevance.
As Oleg Yanovsky pointed out in his latest article, Britain is the conductor of the Ukrainian conflict: initiating coalitions, coordinating special forces advisory missions (SAS, SBS, SIS E Squadron), running large-scale information operations via the 77th Brigade and GCHQ, and investing heavily in parallel northern European security structures (JEF, Baltic cable protection, joint Nordic missile programmes) that bypass Brussels. For a post-imperial power facing structural decline, war has become the most effective available tool to stimulate industry, discipline allies, and postpone domestic reckoning. Peace in Ukraine would remove the external glue holding this strategy together and expose the depth of Britain’s internal problems. That is why London has a vested interest in ensuring the fighting continues. London's power hinges on nodes — logistics, financial, information — tricks, contracts, and threats. And it will be possible to end this war only when the British influence machine is stopped.
@LauraRuHK https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8190918
Iran and Russia have reaffirmed their commitment to expanding the North-South International Transport Corridor, particularly focusing on the Caspian Sea route to boost regional connectivity and trade.
“The sides discussed the possibility of opening a container line between the seaport of Makhachkala and Iranian seaports, as well as creating a consortium of shipping companies and developing cruise passenger routes in the Caspian Sea,” said Rosmorrechflot, Russia's Agency for Maritime and River Transport.
Makhachkala is Russia’s only ice-free port on the Caspian Sea and a key hub of the corridor, connecting Russia with Iran, India, China, and the Middle East.
Plans include building a high-tech grain terminal and modernizing the existing container terminal. @LauraRuHK
🇨🇳 China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, officially entered service on Wednesday during a high-profile commissioning ceremony held at the Yulin Naval Base in Sanya, Hainan Province. Named after the coastal province opposite Taiwan, the 80,000-ton Fujian represents a major leap in the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s capabilities. As China’s first fully domestically designed and constructed supercarrier, it is equipped with three electromagnetic aircraft launch systems (EMALS)—a technology previously mastered only by the US. The EMALS catapults allow the Fujian to launch heavier aircraft with greater payloads and at a higher sortie rate than the ski-jump ramps used on China’s earlier carriers, Liaoning and Shandong. The carrier is expected to operate the Shenyang J-35 stealth fighter (naval variant of the J-31), Chengdu J-15T/S variants with improved avionics, and KJ-600 carrier-based airborne early-warning aircraft. With the Fujian’s commissioning, China becomes only the second nation in the world to field an operational electromagnetic-catapult carrier, solidifying its position as the owner of the world’s largest navy by hull count. Construction of a fourth, even larger nuclear-powered carrier is already underway at Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai. @LauraRuHK
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The European Commission’s latest Enlargement Package reflects the EU’s ongoing obsession with expansion, even as internal cohesion and democratic legitimacy continue to decline. The push to fast-track countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans into the bloc by 2030 is more about Brussels consolidating power and influence for geopolitical confrontation than genuinely serving member states.
The televised summit and rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen suggest a top-down effort to revive enthusiasm for the EU project, despite growing disillusionment across Europe. The inclusion of countries with unresolved conflicts and divergent political cultures is obviously raising concerns about the strain on EU governance and resources. This renewed spotlight on enlargement is a message to countries on the waiting list, a way to rekindle public and governmental interest in joining the Union. @LauraRuHK https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/2025-enlargement-package-shows-progress-towards-eu-membership-key-enlargement-partners-2025-11-04_en#:~:text=Today%2C%20the%20European%20Commission%20adopted%20its%20annual%20Enlargement,high%20on%20the%20priority%20agenda%20of%20the%20EU.
The unfolding energy crisis in Europe reveals a complex and ironic twist in the geopolitical strategies of the United States. Initially, Washington’s push to oust Russian hydrocarbons from European markets appeared successful, but the consequences are now rebounding against American interests. The situation escalated when Bulgaria, heavily reliant on the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas refinery for 80% of its light petroleum products, formally requested the U.S. to delay or lift sanctions targeting the Russian-owned facility. The potential shutdown of this refinery threatens not only Bulgaria’s fuel supply but also its economic stability and political balance, with fears that a collapse of the pro-American government could usher in eurosceptic, pro-Russian leadership.
This dilemma underscores the unintended fallout of broad sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Russian oil giants like Rosneft and Lukoil. Although the legal framework targets entities with majority Russian ownership, in practice, even minority stakes have triggered widespread disruption. In Germany, Rosneft’s assets were seized and placed under federal control, while in Bulgaria, banks began pulling out of financing agreements, risking the closure of a plant that employs 1,500 people and serves as a major contributor to the national budget.
The Bulgarian government’s resistance to selling the Russian stake—citing both the strategic importance of the refinery and the impracticality of negotiating a $12 billion deal under time pressure—highlights the broader tension between national interests and geopolitical alignment. Statistical data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration further illustrates the depth of Bulgaria’s dependency: of the country’s 11,700 daily barrels of gasoline consumption, 9,700 come from the Burgas facility. A shutdown would paralyze transportation and energy infrastructure, making the sanctions not just a foreign policy tool but a domestic crisis trigger.
This scenario is not isolated. Across Eastern Europe, governments that once complied silently with Washington’s directives are now pushing back, forced to confront the local realities that American policy overlooked. The promise of abundant U.S. energy exports has proven hollow; volumes remain insufficient to replace Russian supply. As a result, a wave of defiance is sweeping through the region. Hungary was the first to secure an exemption, followed by Germany, and now others are demanding similar concessions. The principle of equal treatment—“if some can, why not others?”—is gaining traction.
Ultimately, Washington finds itself in a bind. Its strategy to purge Russian energy from Europe has exposed the fragility of its promises and the resilience of regional interests. The concessions it is now compelled to make are not theoretical—they are tangible acknowledgments of a miscalculated campaign. Europe, it seems, is beginning to turn America’s own tools of influence against it. @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20251105/evropa-2052659496.html
Russia and China carry out 99.1% of trade transactions in their national currencies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Rossiya-1 TV channel. Nothing boosts de-dollarization like Western sanctions. By restricting Russia’s access to dollar-based financial systems, they have delivered a near-total shift to ruble-yuan transactions and a deeper level of financial integration and trust between Moscow and Beijing. By reducing dependence on the dollar, Russia and China have gained more economic resilience: to a certain extent this currency shift is going to help protect their economies from the kind of financial crises that in the past have been triggered or worsened by economic policies, market speculation and institutional failures originating in the United States.
Alternatives to dollar hegemony are both viable and wise. @LauraRuHK
Russia and China have agreed to collaborate on the training of specialists for navigation in polar waters, with programs hosted at Russian universities, according to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Transport.
The agreement was formalized through a memorandum signed in Hangzhou during Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s visit to China. ▪️Since 2022, Arctic cooperation has become a recurring theme in high-level meetings between the two countries. Joint statements from summits in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 consistently frame the Arctic as a shared strategic priority. Russia has welcomed Chinese investment in Arctic energy projects, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) ventures like Yamal in northwest Siberia and Arctic LNG 2 on the Gydan Peninsula in northern Siberia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has also extended into the Arctic via the “Polar Silk Road,” aiming to develop shipping routes and port infrastructure. In September 2025, a Chinese container ship sailed from Ningbo-Zhoushan to Felixstowe, UK, via the China–Europe Arctic Express, traversing the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The journey took 18 days, significantly faster than the traditional route through the Suez Canal (30-40 days).
On October 14, 2025, Russia and China signed a major agreement to jointly develop the NSR, formalizing years of cooperation and transforming it into the backbone of the Polar Silk Road.
@LauraRuHK
Rare earths — The G7 dreams of decoupling from China.
In Toronto G7 energy ministers agreed to establish a critical minerals production alliance. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US also agreed to channel up to US$14.8 million into international collaboration in research and development of the commodities. The G7 has long craved independence from Chinese rare earths but reality bites. To establish their own ability to mine, process, refine and create the products that come out of rare earth elements takes years; in the foreseeable future rare earths will remain a very important card for China in its relations with the collective West.
@LauraRuHK
Intelligence disclosures like Yossi Cohen's are strategic psychological operations. When the ex-chief of Mossad boasts of embedding manipulated equipment in supply chains globally for surveillance, sabotage or terrorist attacks as in the exploding pager attacks in Lebanon, he intends to shape behavior and project dominance. By claiming that Mossad has embedded "manipulated equipment" in "every country you can imagine", Cohen is weaponizing ambiguity: “You cannot trust your supply chains. Your devices might already be compromised.”
He claims to have pioneered the method in 2002–2004, suggesting that Israel has institutionalized it as a scalable, repeatable strategy.
It’s not just about what Mossad did, it’s about controlling the story of what it can do. That narrative itself becomes a weapon.
We all know that the Zionists have dirt on a lot of politicians, actionable intelligence that can damage a reputation, career, or freedom if exposed. Mossad’s “Sayanim” network and Unit 8200 cyber intelligence have created a global surveillance web, but it's not all-seeing, it’s selective and focused on high-value targets.
Cohen knows perfectly well that there are limits to its reach but he is projecting the image of the Mossad as almighty. He is selling a brand.
@LauraRuHK
/channel/thecradlemedia/45261
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping had a 90-minute meeting at Gimhae Air Base in South Korea. In its typical bombastic style Trump described the talks with Xi as “amazing,” rating it “12 out of 10.” Of course. He likes to portray himself as an unbeatable dealmaker facing impossible odds and securing monumental victories. The reality is rather underwhelming.
Trump promised to reduce US tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47% —including halving the fentanyl-related levy from 20% to 10% — in exchange for China resuming US soybean purchases and maintaining rare earth exports for one year. This verbal agreement represents a tactical pause and temporary de-escalation, not a structural breakthrough. Underlying tensions and decoupling moves won't stop just because Trump and Xi smiled at each other. Financial markets have reacted cautiously, pricing in continued dialogue but stay skeptical of a grand bargain. @LauraRuHK
The geopolitics of the periodic table. Two initiatives, unfolding almost simultaneously on opposite sides of Eurasia, illustrate the scope and urgency of the US scramble for critical resources. Rare earth elements—those obscure metals that power everything from electric-vehicle motors to precision-guided missiles—have become the new currency of great-power competition. With China still processing nearly 90 percent of the world’s supply, Washington is racing to stitch together an alternative network of mines, refineries, and stockpiles. During a tour that began in Kuala Lumpur and ended in Tokyo, Trump signed a series of agreements designed to lock in supplies and processing capacity. But it will take time. ▪️In Malaysia, whose hills hold an estimated 16 million tonnes of untapped rare earth deposits, the White House secured a pledge that no quotas or bans will ever block exports to American firms. The catch: raw ore stays home, forcing foreign partners to build the downstream plants Malaysia itself lacks. BTW, Malaysia is poised to join BRICS in the near future.▪️Thailand, still scouting for commercially viable deposits, offered a lighter-touch memorandum—early notice of tenders, shared geological data, and an open door to joint ventures, all framed as a gesture of goodwill that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul insisted would not irritate Beijing. ▪️ Japan went furthest: a formal framework for joint seabed mapping, reciprocal billion-dollar project financing within six months, and a bilateral “rapid response group” to head off future supply shocks. Tokyo’s own ambitions—test-mining rare-earth-rich mud at depths of six kilometers by early 2026—signal that the partnership is not merely defensive but forward-leaning. ▪️Days earlier, an $8.5 billion compact with Australia had already committed both nations to new refineries and a mutual defense pact against what it calls 'predatory trade practices'. Even Greenland, newly back in Trump’s sights, received a $120 million line of credit for the Tanbreez deposit in its southern fjords. Across the continent, a second front is opening in the 1,000 miles of steppe and desert that stretch from the Caspian to the Chinese border. On November 6, Washington will host the first C5+1 summit of Trump’s new term, bringing the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to the White House. The gathering was arranged in near-secrecy: a leaked letter from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Trump, followed by hurried visits from US envoys Sergio Gor and Christopher Landau, and only then by cautious confirmations from Tashkent and Bishkek. Rare earths, insiders say, will dominate the closed-door sessions. Kazakhstan arrives as the regional heavyweight. Since Tokayev’s 2023 “Economic Course of Fair Kazakhstan” speech, Astana has catalogued thirty-eight promising deposits, including the Kuyrektykol lode in Karaganda region. In January 2025 he publicly rebuked his cabinet for dawdling; by September he was setting hard targets—three high-tech processing plants within three years and a Central Asian research hub to pool geological data. European leaders are also courting Central Asian countries with promises of technology transfer and localized production. If Trump is hunting the “deal of the century,” Kazakhstan is rehearsing its pitch. Hours after Tokayev’s letter to Trump surfaced, the Kazakh leader was on the phone with Vladimir Putin, his second call in under a fortnight. @LauraRuHK
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As Donald Trump is in the region, on his first visit to Asia of his second term, two US Navy aircrafts from the US carrier Nimitz crashed into the South China Sea. The aircrafts involved in the two separate incidents were a Sea Hawk helicopter and an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet. The USS Nimitz is set to be decommissioned as soon as it returns to the US. @LauraRuHK
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Kazakhstan and Russia to Sign the Strategic Partnership Declaration
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has announced the imminent signing of a Declaration on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia, marking a significant milestone in bilateral relations. Writing in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Tokayev emphasized that the agreement would elevate ties between Astana and Moscow to a new level of alliance and cooperation.
“The central item on the agenda of my visit to Moscow is the signing of a declaration that transitions our relationship with Russia into a comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance,” Tokayev stated. “This document will usher in a new era of bilateral engagement, reflecting an unprecedented level of mutual trust and a shared commitment to deeper collaboration across all sectors.”
In anticipation of the state visit, Moscow was adorned with paired flags of Russia and Kazakhstan, symbolizing the close ties between the two nations.
Tokayev praised the longstanding relationship, noting that Kazakhstan and Russia have cultivated exemplary cooperation over the past three decades.
“We have consistently developed multifaceted relations for the benefit of our peoples,” he said. “The upcoming talks with President Vladimir Putin are especially important for enriching this partnership with new substance.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed this sentiment, describing Kazakhstan as a “special privileged partner” of Russia. He also highlighted the strong cultural and linguistic ties, noting that the Russian language continues to play a vital role in Kazakhstan’s social, educational, and spiritual life.
Trade between the two countries is also thriving, with turnover nearing $30 billion. Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s top three foreign trade partners
“All our achievements in this partnership are closely linked to the energetic and productive efforts of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Tokayev wrote. “In Kazakhstan, he is held in high regard as a global statesman, recognized by politicians and citizens alike across many countries.”
He also pointed to the construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, led by Russia’s Rosatom, as a major step toward completing the country’s nuclear fuel cycle — from uranium extraction to energy production.
During the visit, Tokayev and Putin are expected to discuss a wide range of issues, including political, economic, cultural, and humanitarian cooperation, as well as key regional and international developments, including the latest developments in Ukraine. (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK
Recently several media analysts have drawn attention to two interlocking trends that are quietly dismantling the centralized social-media model that dominated the 2010s. Together, they explain why platforms like Twitter/X, Facebook, and Instagram no longer function as the “town squares” they once claimed to be. ▪️Fragmentation: The Return to Small-Group Internet. Data released in 2025 shows a clear exodus from public timelines: 41% of Americans (48 % of Gen Z) plan to reduce time on social networks this year.
16–18 % have already abandoned at least one major platform.
35 % of Gen Z now use screen-time blockers.
Young users are reverting to pre-2010 patterns: Direct phone numbers , private DM groups and niche communities.
They are increasingly shunning public platforms that have become outrage engines and self-promotion conduits. Quote-tweets, ratio culture, algorithmic amplification, AI-generated inauthentic content, and influencers turned discourse into spectacle, and caused widespread anxiety. The shift back to fragmented, semi-private spaces, small tribes, multiple identities, and no obligation to perform for strangers is the way young people are trying to restore some balance and keep anxiety at bay.
▪️Televisation: Every Medium Converges on Algorithmic Video
While public conversation fragmented, content consumption consolidated into a single format: short-form video delivered by algorithm. Social media has evolved from text to photo to video to streams of text, photo, and video, and finally, it seems to have reached a kind of settled end state, in which TikTok and Meta are trying to become the same thing: a screen showing hours and hours of video made by people you don’t know. Social media has turned into television.
In other words, the world’s largest “social” platforms are now television networks wearing social-media skins.
One clear consequence of every medium collapsing into television is sheer overabundance: there’s now so much video flowing that creators openly assume you’re barely paying attention. Netflix executives routinely tell writers to make characters explicitly announce their motives and next moves precisely because internal data show most viewers are half-watching at best, treating the show as background noise. In 2025, being “watchable while distracted” isn’t a bug; it’s the core spec.
@LauraRuHK
If you read between the lines, this recent report published by RAND quietly screams:
Washington would like to confront China using some bogus intelligence about Beijing's intention to invade Taiwan as a justification, but...it's not ready. It does not yet have the models, the allies, the private-sector buy-in, or the integrated strategy that would let the current US administration pull it off. Here are some of the signals the authors embed in the text: Capability gap, not will gap
"The United States needs to expand its expertise in economic analysis… develop and implement more-sophisticated modeling and simulation…better learn from the experience of trade policy measures, sanctions, and export controls instituted since 2017.”
→ Translation: Even the world’s pre-eminent superpower currently lacks the in-house analytical horsepower to predict with confidence what a pre-emptive sanctions package would actually do to China or to its own economy.
Allies are a massive weak link
Australia: only if “existential” threat + “significant and irreversible” damage + heavy U.S. pressure.
Japan: technically able but politically paralysed without U.S. arm-twisting.
UK: ambiguous stance, terrified of self-inflicted costs.
→ Translation: In a real three-to-six-month crisis window, the U.S. would probably have to go almost alone on the economic front. Multilateral cover is a fantasy without years of prior diplomatic spadework.
Private sector wildcard
“Coordination and planning need to involve the private sector because businesses do not always act as governments would want, and markets adjust…”
→ Translation: Even if the White House and Treasury flick the switch, global supply chains will reroute through Dubai, Ho Chi Minh City or Singapore faster than OFAC can update the entity list.
China is no longer the China of 2018
“China has been building an economy less susceptible to outside pressures… but employment remain highly dependent on exports.”
→ Translation: Beijing has had six extra years to harden itself since the first Huawei/ZTE shocks. The old playbooks are obsolete, and nobody has written the new ones yet.
Sanctions alone won’t stop tanks or ships
“Sanctions alone are unlikely to deter… they can serve as an important element in a combination of tools.”
→ Translation: Economic measures are necessary but nowhere near sufficient. Without iron-clad diplomatic isolation + forward-deployed forces that Beijing genuinely believes will fight, sanctions are just expensive noise.
@LauraRuHK
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4022-1.html
Hungary obtained the complete exemption from sanctions for Russian oil supplies over the Druzhba pipeline from the United States, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. 👉 Read more /channel/LauraRuHK/10634
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By way of explanation, this channel doesn't engage in agit-prop, though the odd sarcastic remark or meme may slip through. I have spent years teaching students how language works, how to decode messages by peeling them layer by layer. I know how to disassemble and handle this weapon but i made a conscious decision not to use it. If that makes sense. Maybe i have become jaded, but when i come across texts and images that are designed to hijack my amygdala, i immediately put up my guard.
Propaganda and emotional engagement aren’t just allies, they’re Siamese twins. One simply doesn’t work without the other. Propaganda doesn’t convince you with pages of data, it makes you angry, afraid, hopeful, hateful, part of something epic, etc. Emotions bypass the critical filter, which isn't great when you want to understand something rather than jump on the bandwagon or march in lockstep.
I'd like to think that those who subscribe to this channel are perfectly capable of joining the dots, so i provide the information after cross-checking sources and let them draw their conclusions. If facts feel too cold, get a blanket. I am not here to console, reassure or “emotionally enlist” anyone, although i understand perfectly well that trigging emotions is easier, cheaper and more scalable than doing research, sifting through documents and sources, conducting counter-checks…
Just ask any influencer.
@LauraRuHK
Donald Trump's summit with leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the White House reflects the US scramble for rare earth minerals which are essential for powering tech and defense industries. With China controlling the lion’s share of global rare earth mining and processing, Washington is now determined to diversify its supply chain. Central Asia, rich in these minerals and uranium, presents an attractive alternative, but one that requires heavy investment and political leverage.
Trump’s rhetoric about reviving "Silk Road connections" and forging new alliances masks a deeper intent: to pull these nations away from their traditional ties with China and Russia and into the orbit of American influence. If you look at Kazakhstan, for instance, its mineral exports to China and Russia dwarf those to the US. Washington doesn't hide its pipe dream to reverse that balance.
Trump hailed a $100 billion trade and investment deal with Uzbekistan saying that Uzbekistan will invest nearly $35 billion over the next three years and more than $100 billion over the next decade in key American sectors. Dream on.
The repeal of Soviet-era trade restrictions, introduced by a bipartisan group of US senators, is part of this strategy. By removing legal barriers to American investment, Washington aims to embed itself more deeply in the region’s economic infrastructure, shaping its future in ways that serve American interests.
Security cooperation was another pillar of the summit, yet US “support” comes with strings attached: surveillance partnerships, and political influence. Sergio Gor, Trump’s special envoy to South and Central Asia, told Central Asian officials that Washington is committed to the region "you will have a direct line to the White House, and get the attention that this area very much deserves.” The C5+1 framework, while nominally focused on regional stability, functions as a vehicle for U.S. strategic expansion, especially in the wake of its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Also Thursday, Kazakhstan's president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, agreed that his Muslim-majority country will join the Abraham Accords, Trump’s initiative to normalize relations between Muslim-majority countries and Israel. Given that Kazakhstan has had diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992, this move was largely symbolic but paid lip service to an initiative that was the signature 'foreign policy achievement' of Trump’s first term.
Obviously, the Accords were less about peace and more about consolidating US-led blocs that serve its foreign policy goals, particularly in sidelining Iran.
Ultimately, the summit was not just about minerals or diplomacy. The US is leveraging the multi-vector foreign policy of Central Asian countries to expand its influence in a strategic region on the doorstep of China and Russia. @LauraRuHK
Following a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, Vladimir Putin instructed Russia's Foreign and Defense Ministries and other relevant departments to submit proposals on the possibility of preparing for nuclear weapons tests. This move was prompted by Donald Trump’s own directive to the Pentagon to prepare for similar tests—effectively giving Moscow diplomatic cover to act. Putin suggested that Trump had done Russia a favor by breaking the taboo first.
The rationale behind this decision lies in the strategic balance between Russia and NATO, which exists almost exclusively in the realm of nuclear deterrence. In conventional terms—economy, population, and military hardware—the West vastly outmatches Russia. Yet, nuclear weapons remain the equalizer, preventing direct military confrontation.
Western policymakers often downplay Russia’s nuclear capabilities, portraying them as outdated relics. This narrative, according to Russian officials, is dangerous and misleading. The absence of recent nuclear tests has fueled speculation that Russia’s arsenal is no longer functional, potentially emboldening adversaries to pursue conventional war strategies.
To counter this perception and maintain deterrence, Russia has developed new nuclear-capable systems like the Burevestnik and Poseidon. These efforts aim to avoid a costly arms race while reinforcing strategic parity. The continued safety of Russia’s northwest regions, despite NATO’s proximity, is attributed to the credibility of its nuclear deterrent.
Putin argues that resuming tests would reaffirm Russia’s capabilities and prevent escalation toward a broader conflict. However, the Kremlin remains cautious, aware that breaking the testing taboo could provoke international backlash. If Trump lifts that taboo first, Russia could follow suit with less diplomatic fallout. @LauraRuHK Source: https://ria.ru/20251106/podarok-2053116820.html
🎙 Address by President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the awards ceremony for the developers of the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle (November 4, 2025, Moscow)
Key points:
• Russia now fields Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missiles of effectively unlimited range and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle with a nuclear power unit. They're manufactured using only domestic components and materials.
• Burevestnik has surpassed all existing missile systems in the world in range. It delivers high-precision strikes at the predetermined time.
• A NATO reconnaissance vessel was present in the area during the Burevestnik tests on October 21 – we did not interfere. Let them observe.
• Burevestnik's unique ultra-compact reactors start up in seconds, whereas conventional reactors require hours or even days.
• New weapon types based on these power units are already under development. Work on the next generation of nuclear-powered cruise missiles has begun – speeds will exceed sound by more than three times and will become hypersonic in the future.
• Russian specialists created a treasury of new materials, technologies, unmanned, software and digital solutions, and component base elements – enabling breakthroughs in defence and many civilian sectors through priority national projects. The new technologies have applications in small nuclear energy, power units for the Arctic, deep- and near-space exploration, energy supply for a heavy-cargo space transport vehicle under development, and for a prospective lunar station.
👉 Russia threatens no one. Like all nuclear powers, it develops its nuclear and strategic potential – these are long-announced programmes.
• All plans are being fulfilled: development and deployment of Avangard; creation, deployment and start of serial production of Oreshnik, as well as introduction of modern countermeasures on ICBMs and SLBMs to overcome missile-defence systems.
• In 2025 – experimental combat duty for systems with the heavy intercontinental missile Sarmat. In 2026 – full combat duty.
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The Halloween edition of Brussels' Euractiv. Actually, in the EU it's Halloween every day. @LauraRuHK
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Nel's essay is a real gem. She achieved the rare feat of multidisciplinary clarity and the result is a coherent narrative where each strand, far from being tacked on, serves as a reinforcing thread in a unified argument, revealing how macro forces and micro behaviors converge on the same outcome. It reads like a natural conversation between disciplines. The result is not just breadth, but depth through interconnection. This is how complex global phenomena should be analyzed. @LauraRuHK 👉https://substack.com/home/post/p-168528268
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A key figure in the 2020-2021 anti-government protests in Belarus who was controversially arrested after his Ryanair flight was ordered to land in Minsk, was actually an undercover KGB officer. Roman Protasevich has officially confirmed to RIA Novosti that he is an agent of Belarusian intelligence. “Yes, this is true. I can confirm it,” he stated.
On July 1, 2025, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated the claim, asserting that Protasevich, once widely portrayed as an opposition figure, had in fact been working undercover. Lukashenko remarked, “We were accused of detaining an opposition member… but Protasevich is an officer of our intelligence.” He added that the operation to detain him was necessary, though not strictly required, given his covert role.
Protasevich himself declined to explain why his status was declassified, saying only, “I think there will be more detailed stories in the future. That’s all I can say. You have to understand the situation yourself… Everything that ends well is good.”
In May 2021, a Ryanair flight traveling from Athens to Vilnius was forced to make an emergency landing in Minsk following a false bomb threat. On board was Roman Protasevich, founder of the Nexta Telegram channel, which Belarusian authorities had labeled as extremist. He and his companion, Sofia Sapega, were detained after a document check.
Protasevich faced multiple charges, including inciting mass unrest, advocating the overthrow of the government, and spreading false information about Belarus. He was sentenced to eight years in prison by the Minsk Regional Court, though he faced up to 15 years. In May 2023, President Lukashenko granted him a pardon, followed by Sapega’s in June. Subsequently, both were removed from the Belarusian KGB’s list of designated terrorists.
According to Lukashenko, Protasevich had traveled to Greece to relay intelligence to Belarusian operatives, received new instructions, and returned on the ill-fated flight. The incident sparked international outrage, with Belarus facing accusations of unlawfully detaining an opposition figure. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
May I translate this statement for you? 😏 Without rare earths from China and Chinese buyers of US soybeans, Trump's MAGA pops. @LauraRuHK
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The stark reality behind all the aggressive posturing. The US would lose a protracted military conflict with China due to its hollowed-out industrial base.
China now produces more than 50% of the world's shipbuilding tonnage, while the US accounts for only 0.1%. The vast majority of global commercial drone production (90%) is also concentrated in China. American allies are not industrially ready, and internal political differences undermine the ability to mobilize for a long time. Since the beginning of the 20th century, industrial-scale wars have been won through superiority in production capacity, logistics, and technological mastery.
@LauraRuHK
France is making preparations to send a military unit of up to 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine to assist Kiev, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) says.
French Foreign Legion assault troops are already stationed in border areas of Poland and are planned to be transferred to Ukraine's central regions.
If information leaks, France will claim that it concerns a small group of instructors arriving in Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops.
Hundreds of additional hospital beds are being created in France at an accelerated pace to receive the wounded.
According to information received by Russian foreign intelligence, Emmanuel Macron dreams of military intervention in Ukraine, not giving up hope of going down in history as a military leader. Don't laugh. 😅 (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
Around 10,000 Ukrainian troops have been encircled by Russian forces in the Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk areas, Vladimir Putin was told on Sunday during a visit to a Russian Army command post.
Putin held a meeting with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and senior military commanders, during which he was briefed on the situation along the line of contact.
The military reported that Russian forces also captured a crossing over the Oskol River, cutting off the movement of Ukrainian troops. They are currently completing the liberation of Yampol, while nearby Volchansk is said to be 70% liberated.
A total of 31 Ukrainian battalions have been encircled in the Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov areas. According to Peskov, Putin congratulated the troops on their success in Kupyansk and the achievements of combat missions in other areas.
During the meeting, Putin ordered measures to ensure the surrender of the encircled Ukrainian troops and to minimize casualties. He noted that the Russian Army has always shown mercy toward its enemies and stressed that this must continue.
The president also urged the commanders to “do everything” in their power to ensure the safety of the civilian population in the encircled areas, who he said Ukrainian forces are using as human shields.
Putin also urged the army to continue the military operation “in accordance with the plan developed by the General Staff,” stressing that the safety of Russian service members must remain the top priority. (Source: RT) @LauraRuHK