2016
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Paradigm Session Recap – October 27
Spot is down, with BTC at $114,000 and ETH at $4,100 as of this writing. Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) begins trading on NYSE tomorrow, offering direct exposure to spot SOL and targeting 100% of assets staked.
Fronts retraced while put skew eased. BTC flows featured calendars, while ETH saw OTM calls trade — the 7 Nov 4.6k at 69v and the 14 Nov 5k at 70v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 15
Spot is down, with BTC at $110,900 and ETH at $4,000 as of this writing. SEC Chair Atkins reiterated that crypto and tokenization are “job one” for the SEC, emphasizing the agency’s goal of developing a coherent framework that can foster innovation.
Fronts retraced while skew was unchanged. Flows featured OTM puts lifted across majors, with the 31 Oct 95k put bought at 56v and the 24 Oct 3.4k put bought at 87v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 13
Spot is up, with BTC at $115,400 and ETH at $4,200 as of this writing. The market stabilized following Friday’s leverage flush, the largest crypto liquidation event in history. Stocks rebounded after dovish Trump remarks on China. Tomorrow Chair Powell is due to speak. This week also features ASML and TSMC earnings on Wednesday and Thursday.
BTC December basis sits at 7% annualized. Vols eased but remain above flash-crash levels. 25-delta butterflies are on the rise. Flows featured the 31 Oct 135k call lifted at 45v and the 14 Oct 4k put bought at 84v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 9
Spot is down, with BTC at $121,700 and ETH at $4,400 as of this writing. Fed governor Barr said he isn’t satisfied with progress on inflation, noting the median forecast of committee members doesn’t reach 2% until 2027. BlackRock’s IBIT now holds 802,197.8 BTC.
ATMs were largely unchanged with BTC fronts sitting in the 30s. BTC flows featured calendars and Oct/Nov outrights, while ETH saw Dec 3.5k puts and a 12 Oct 4.35k straddle lifted.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 6
Spot is up to new all-time highs, with BTC at $125,200 and ETH at $4,700 as of this writing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to speak Thursday. Economic data releases are likely to be postponed as the U.S. government shutdown extends into its second week.
Vol and skew barely reacted to spot. BTC December basis sits at 8% annualized. Flows featured the 31 Oct 124k/128k call spread, while ETH OTM outrights and spreads were also lifted.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 2
Spot is up, with BTC at $120,400 and ETH at $4,500 as of this writing. The federal government shutdown entered its second day with no signs of a quick resolution. Prediction markets now see the shutdown lasting until at least the end of next week. Meanwhile, CME Group announced it will shift its crypto futures and options to 24/7 trading in early 2026.
BTC put skew eased. BTC flows featured the 31 Oct 126k call lifted at 36v, while ETH saw the 10 Oct 4.5k call bought at 59v.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 29
Spot is up, with BTC at $114,200 and ETH at $4,200 as of this writing. Gold traded at record highs. A US government shutdown is looming on Oct 1 unless a short-term spending bill is passed. The September jobs report, scheduled for Oct 3, will be postponed in the event of a shutdown.
BTC put skew eased while ETH skew flipped to calls. Flows featured the 31 Oct 135k call sold at 36v and the 3 Oct 4k put sold at 58v.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 24
Spot is up, with BTC at $113,500 and ETH at $4,200 as of this writing. The CFTC unveiled a new initiative to allow traders to post tokenized assets such as stablecoins as collateral. On Friday, $17 billion in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of $110k, alongside $5 billion in ETH options with a max pain price of $3.8k.
BTC put skew retraced. The 3 Oct 122k call was bought at 35v. ETH flows featured OTM puts lifted.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 22
Spot is down, with BTC at $112,000 and ETH at $4,200 as of this writing. Stock indexes and gold are trading at new records. Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow at 12:35 PM ET. August PCE data is due Friday.
Fronts are up a notch. BTC flows featured calendars. The 3 Oct 190 and 200 SOL puts were sold at 77v and 73v.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 18
Spot is up, with BTC at $117,000 and ETH at $4,600 as of this writing. A rally in tech pushed indexes to fresh records. XRPR and DOJE traded $38M and $17M respectively, which Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted as a positive sign for the upcoming ETF launches.
Fronts continue to trend lower while put skew pulled back. Flows featured calendars and puts sold.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 16
Spot is mixed, with BTC at $116,900 and ETH at $4,500 as of this writing. A group of crypto execs including Michael Saylor and MARA CEO Fred Thiel joined Sen. Cynthia Lummis and Rep. Nick Begich in Washington, D.C. to push for U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve legislation.
BTC fronts are up a notch while put skew edged higher. The 19 Sep 116k call was lifted at 38v while the 31 Oct 100k put was bought at 40v.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 9
Spot is down, with BTC at $111,400 and ETH at $4,300 as of this writing. The first US Dogecoin ETF is expected to launch Thursday under the ticker DOJE. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noted it’s an Act 40 product, with a larger cohort of '33 Act-ers still awaiting SEC approval.
Fronts are down slightly again. Flows featured the 26 Sep 4k put lifted at 70v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 16
Spot is down, with BTC at $108,000 and ETH at $3,900 as of this writing. Fed governor Christopher Waller backed another rate cut this month but noted the path ahead remains uncertain, further complicated by the shutdown delaying key economic data releases.
Fronts are bid while put skew increased. BTC December basis trades in the 6% annualized range. Flows featured the 18 Oct / 24 Oct put roll and the 31 Oct 4k puts sold at 71v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 14
Spot is down, with BTC at $113,100 and ETH at $4,100 as of this writing. Chair Powell kept the Fed on track to cut rates again later this month, noting that labor market weakness outweighs concerns over sticky inflation. He also hinted QT could end in the coming months.
Vols are up a notch and put skew increased. Flows featured the 31 Oct 115k put sold at 43v and the 18 Oct 108k put lifted at 52v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 8
Spot is up, with BTC at $123,500 and ETH at $4,500 as of this writing. The debasement trade continues with gold reaching fresh all-time highs. September Fed minutes reiterated a divided committee on the path for rates, though Fed Funds Futures remain overwhelmingly tilted toward an Oct 29 cut.
ATMs were largely unchanged while put skew eased. The session saw heavy flows, including the Oct 11 117k/128k risk reversal bought and the largest ETH block trade ever at $957M notional (211,400 ETH).
Paradigm Session Recap – September 30
Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $114,000 and ETH at $4,100 as of this writing. A US government shutdown appears likely as the Senate is expected to vote against the House-passed Republican stopgap measure. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas now views Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETF approvals as certain.
ETH fronts slipped a notch while skew flipped back to puts. Majors flows were muted. The SOL 31 Oct 235/240 call spread was sold.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 23
Spot is flat, with BTC at $112,000 and ETH at $4,200 as of this writing. Chair Jerome Powell implied there is room for further rate cuts this year. White House Crypto Council’s Patrick Witt expects the crypto market structure bill to pass by year-end.
Put skew edged higher. Flows featured calendars and 27 Sep outrights. ETH flows were muted.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 17
Spot is flat, with BTC at $116,200 and ETH at $4,500 as of this writing. As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps as labor market jitters outweighed inflation risks. A narrow majority of voting members now expect two additional cuts this year. In other news, CME plans to launch options on Solana and XRP futures in October.
Fronts rose higher ahead of the FOMC but then retraced. BTC flows featured the 20 Sep 111k/106k put spread bought, while the ETH 26 Sep 3.4k/3.8k call spread was sold.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 15
Spot is down, with BTC at $115,500 and ETH at $4,500 as of this writing. A Senate confirmation vote on Stephen Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, to join the Fed's board is set for the evening. On Wednesday at 2pm ET, the Fed is widely expected to cut 25 bps, with updated projections providing guidance for the rest of 2025. Monetary policy decisions from the BoE and BOJ follow on Thursday and Friday.
ATMs were largely unchanged while put skew eased. Flows featured calendars and some outright calls. The SOL 17 Sep 244 call was sold at 64v.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 10
Spot is up, with BTC at $113,700 and ETH at $4,300 as of this writing. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said spot ETF approvals and corporate treasury purchases could usher in Solana season. Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, Franklin, Fidelity, CoinShares, and Invesco await SEC decisions on their spot Solana ETF filings by Oct. 10.
Fronts continue to trend lower. Flows again featured the 26 Sep 4k put, lifted up to 73v.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 8
Spot is up, with BTC at $112,400 and ETH at $4,300 as of this writing. The August producer inflation report is due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by CPI on Thursday, with headline expected at 2.90% YoY.
Fronts are down slightly and put skew increased. Flows featured September puts bought and calls sold.
Paradigm Session Recap – September 3
Spot is up, with BTC at $112,000 and ETH at $4,400 as of this writing. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said “recent data have further increased my perception of downside risks to the labor market.” Fed Funds Futures remain overwhelmingly tilted toward a September cut.
Fronts continue to trend down, with ETH put skew easing. Flows were mixed, featuring the 12 Sep 116k call lifted at 36v and the 26 Sep 4k put lifted at 73v.