2016
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Paradigm Session Recap – July 23
Spot is down, with BTC at $64,900 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Tesla shed $214.5B in market capitalization, marking the largest one-day market cap loss in the company's history. Intel shares rallied in after-hours trading following stronger-than-expected quarterly results.
BTC put skew widened while ETH skew flipped back to puts. Flows were mixed, with BTC 24 Jul puts lifted and ETH 31 Jul calls and call spreads bought.
Paradigm Session Recap – July 21
Spot is up, with BTC at $66,600 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Stock indexes moved higher as chip stocks rebounded. Coinbase shares rallied after the Clarity Act cleared a key hurdle, with the White House and a group of senators led by Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R., Wyo.) and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio) reaching an agreement on an ethics provision that had stalled the bill. Fed Funds Futures now price a 25% probability of a rate hike at next week's FOMC.
ATMs were again largely unchanged while put skew continued to ease. BTC flows featured calls rolled and outright buying, including the 7 Aug 70k bought at 38v. ETH flows were further out the curve, with the 28 Aug 2.5k lifted at 53v.
Paradigm Session Recap – July 16
Spot is down, with BTC at $63,700 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Federal Reserve should raise rates to combat elevated inflation, signaling a potential dissent if the FOMC holds rates steady later this month.
ATMs were largely unchanged while ETH skew eased. BTC flows featured puts lifted across the curve, from the 20 Jul 62.5k at 33v to the 25 Sep 50k at 49v. ETH flows, meanwhile, featured calls lifted, including the 31 Jul 2.3k at 54v and the 7 Aug 2.1k at 48v. There were also a few HYPE prints such as the 28 Aug 52 put and the 31 Jul 80 call.
Paradigm Session Recap – December 9
Spot is up, with BTC at $92,900 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner for next Fed Chair, said he would rely on his own judgment and not bow to political pressure, adding that the Fed “cannot be a political body.”
BTC flows featured the 13 Dec 90k / 98k risk reversal. The ETH 26 Dec 4.8k call was lifted at 78v.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 24
Spot is up, with BTC at $88,000 and ETH at $2,900 as of this writing. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF recorded $2.2B in net outflows month-to-date — the largest on record. Tomorrow the delayed PPI print for September is expected. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.
Fronts retraced and put skew softened. Flows featured a 26 Dec 100k/106k/112k/118k condor. Activity was elevated, with $3.8B traded via Paradigm (53% of Deribit volume).
Paradigm Session Recap – November 17
Spot is down, with BTC at $92,000 and ETH at $3,000 as of this writing. Markets now look ahead to Wednesday’s October Fed minutes release at 2 p.m. ET and Nvidia earnings after the close. The long-delayed September jobs report is scheduled for Thursday.
Put skew is up slightly. BTC flows featured the 28 Nov 90k put lifted at 53v, while ETH saw 4k calls rolled.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 13
Spot is down, with BTC at $100,000 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. The Nasdaq Composite led indexes lower, losing 2.3%. Fed Funds Futures are now evenly split between a December cut and hold.
Fronts are up while skew remained unchanged. BTC flows featured the 28 Nov 90k/110k risk reversal and the 28 Nov 90k outright put lifted. ETH flows were muted.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 10
Spot is mixed, with BTC at $106,000 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. The longest government shutdown on record appears close to ending. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3%, the largest one-day rally since May. Tomorrow the U.S. bond market is closed for Veterans Day, while equities remain open.
Fronts and put skew eased. Flows featured a 1dte strangle bought. There was also OTM activity, with the 28 Nov 80k put lifted at 64v and the 21 Nov 110k call bought at 40v.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 5
Spot is up, with BTC at $104,000 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Tech led markets higher today. The Bitcoin and Ether ETFs outflows streak continues. Tomorrow the Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady.
Fronts and put skew retraced. BTC saw a December 112k/120k/150k fly print, while ETH flows featured November OTM customs and call spreads.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 3
Spot is down, with BTC at $106,500 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded net outflows last week. Democrats are pressing President Trump to negotiate as the government shutdown passes the one-month mark, nearing the record 35-day stretch. Tomorrow brings New York’s mayoral election alongside gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
Fronts are up and skew followed spot. Flows diverged: the 28 Nov 108k / 102k put spread was sold while the 7 Nov 3.5k put was lifted at 83v.
Paradigm Session Recap – October 29
Spot is down, with BTC at $109,900 and ETH at $3,900 as of this writing. As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps in a decision that drew dissent from both sides — one calling for a deeper cut and another for no cut at all. The outlook remains uncertain, further complicated by the ongoing data blackout from the government shutdown. Fed Funds Futures now price 66% odds of another cut in December.
Fronts rebounded and BTC put skew increased. ETH flows featured the 31 Oct / 28 Nov 4k put calendar.
Paradigm Session Recap – July 22
Spot is down, with BTC at $66,100 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Treasury yields continued to climb alongside oil prices, pushing the 10-year yield near its 2026 intraday high of 4.69%. Alphabet reported 24% revenue growth in Q2, driven by its cloud business, but free cash flow turned negative as AI data center spending accelerated. Shares traded lower after hours.
BTC vols were largely unchanged while ETH skew flipped to calls. Flows featured the 7 Aug 70k call again, alongside the 25 Dec 58k put at 43v. ETH also saw OTM activity, with the 25 Dec 3.5k trading at 58v.
Paradigm Session Recap – July 20
Spot is up, with BTC at $65,300 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. Q2 earnings season continues this week, with results due from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. It is a light week for macro data, and no Fed speakers are scheduled as policymakers are in the blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
ATM term structures were once again largely unchanged while ETH skew eased. BTC flows featured a Dec 56k/40k put spread sold, while ETH 7 Aug 2.1k calls were lifted. SOL also saw notable activity, with the 31 Jul 85 outright call bought and a 31 Jul 73/77/83 seagull traded.
Paradigm Session Recap – July 15
Spot is flat, with BTC at $64,700 and ETH at $1,900 as of this writing. ASML reported record quarterly orders and raised its sales guidance. Shares in Amsterdam rallied before trimming gains as U.S. semi stocks sold off. Following softer inflation prints, Fed Funds Futures now lean toward a hold at the 29 Jul FOMC.
Fronts are down slightly and put skew eased. BTC flows featured the 31 Jul 70k/72k call spread lifted in 10,000x, while the ETH 28 Aug 2.4k call was sold. There were also notable SOL and XRP prints. A strong session with $1.8B traded via Paradigm, totaling 54% market share.
Paradigm Session Recap – December 8
Spot is up, with BTC at $90,700 and ETH at $3,100 as of this writing. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps. New economic projections are due at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Powell.
Fronts retraced while skew is largely unchanged. Flows featured a December custom. The 12 Dec 96k call sold at 51v.
Paradigm Session Recap — December 1
Spot is down, with BTC at $86,500 and ETH at $2,800 as of this writing. The September PCE print—likely the final inflation datapoint ahead of the Fed’s rate decision—is due Friday at 10am ET.
Fronts widened and put skew increased slightly. Flows featured OTM puts, with 5 Dec 75k lifted at 84v and 12 Dec 2k bought at 110v. There was also interest further out the curve, with the 26 Jun 26 80k bought at 51v.
Paradigm Session Recap — November 25
Spot drifted lower, with BTC at $87,300 and ETH at $2,900 as of this writing. Grayscale and Franklin Templeton’s newly launched spot XRP ETFs each recorded over $60M in day-one inflows.
Fronts slipped slightly. Flow was concentrated in ETH OTM calls, with Dec 5k / 5.2k lifted at 91v and Dec 5.5k lifted at 98v.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 11
Spot is down, with BTC at $103,000 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. As the government reopens, delayed economic data should begin to roll out. The September jobs report, originally scheduled for Oct. 3, is expected to be among the first releases. It remains unclear how the BLS will handle October inflation figures given the survey disruption during the shutdown.
Put skew increased slightly. BTC flows featured the 26 Dec 108k / 95k put spread sold, while ETH saw calls lifted in November and December across strikes ranging from 4k to 7k.
Paradigm Session Recap – November 4
Spot is down, with BTC at $100,500 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. The Nasdaq dropped 2% amid broad tech weakness. Paris-based digital asset treasury firm Sequans sold 970 BTC to repay $94 million in debt, trimming its bitcoin holdings to 2,264 BTC.
Fronts rose sharply while put skew edged higher. Flows featured the 28 Nov 102k/110k call spread bought and the 26 Jun 26 3.4k/3k put spread sold.
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Paradigm Session Recap – October 28
Spot is down, with BTC at $112,700 and ETH at $4,000 as of this writing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at new record highs. Tomorrow the Fed rate decision is due at 2 p.m. ET.
BTC put skew increased. Flows featured OTM puts, with the 26 Dec 85k bought at 57v and the 26 Dec 2.8k lifted at 77v.