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Nationalist, Classical Liberal, moderate centrist (circa 1900). You can plagiarize any of my writing & content. Follow: t.me/racerealismchannel
Cash transfers and fertility (2024):
In 2016, Poland began to give households a cash benefit of $130 USD per month per child under 18.
All families with 2+ children qualified regardless of income, as did low-income 1 child families.
The results of this policy were:
- Increased birth probability among women aged 31-35 (+1.8 percentage points) and 36-40 (+0.7 pp)
- Decreased birth probability among women aged 21-25 (-2.2 pp) and 26-30 (-2.6 pp).
- Negative effect among higher-income women (-1.1 pp).
- No significant effects for women under 21 or over 40.
Source: Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ Policy (n=87,006)
https://demographic-research.org/volumes/vol51/28/51-28.pdf
#fertility
Housing and Fertility:
A recent study used Brazilian housing credit lotteries to investigate the relationship between home ownership and fertility.
20-25 year olds randomly obtaining housing increased their probability of having children by 32% and more children by 33%.
The lifetime fertility boost for 20 year old winners was double that of 30 year old winners.
The effect was stronger for men than women (other studies have found that financial/economic incentives increase male but not female TFR, see: /channel/thuletide/8097, /channel/thuletide/7921, /channel/thuletide/8102)
The housing lottery had no effect on the fertility of winners over 40.
Source: Housing and Fertility (July 15, 2025)
https://ssrn.com/abstract=5046571
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5046571
#fertility
The age gap "pedophilia" moral panic, spawned by feminism and kicked into overdrive during the #MeToo era that began circa 2017, is a potentially civilization-ruining phenomenon. I am, of course, not referring to very real problems, like grooming gangs in Britain, but the fact that 18-year-old boys are frequently accused of being an "Epstein diddy blud" merely for talking to 17-year-old girls. If you wanted to vaporize our already plummeting birth rates, stigmatizing any age gap larger than that between identical twins is a great way to do it.
Girls typically reach physical sexual maturity (adult secondary sexual characteristics) between the ages of 15 and 17, while boys mature a couple of years later. Yet, it is disturbingly common to conflate an 18-year-old dating a 16-year-old — a relationship between two biological adults, legal everywhere in the West aside from a handful of deranged US states — with a 40-year-old raping a 9-year-old. Apparently, the people who do this have no problem with trivializing actual pedophilia (the sexual abuse of prepubescents), which causes immense and long-lasting harm.
The crux of this issue is that healthy male heterosexuality — the preference for younger but sexually mature women — has effectively been criminalized. Meanwhile, older-female age gap relationships are constantly celebrated by the Gynocratic World Order (see e.g. the safe-horny "dommy mommy" phenomenon), to the extent that female teachers who sleep with their male students are routinely spared jail time and socially excused: "Where was she when I was a student?!"
For all of human history until very recently, older-male-age-gap relationships were regarded as normal and good; the average age gap in America from 1850 to 1950 was 4.5 years. Even today, in face of widespread moral hysteria, the average 23-year-old white man and woman in the West prefer partners who are 2 and 3 years older than themselves, respectively. The evolutionary theory is simple: Men prefer fertile women, women prefer men who can provide for offspring; women are most fertile when young, men accumulate resources with age.
Older-male age-gap relationships produce more children, with total lifetime fertility peaking at +7 years (although the variation from +3 to +13 years is very small). The negative fertility effect of older wives begins immediately at +1 year and declines linearly; at +3.5 years, couples produce 0.5 fewer children, on average. Obviously, this is due to women's limited fertility window, which is much smaller than commonly believed: by age 31, ~10% of women are sterile and ~50% are subfertile (they have difficulty conceiving, decreased egg quality, etc).
In case it were not immediately obvious, I will state explicitly that I do not endorse procreation between e.g. 16-year-old girls and 60-year-old grandpas with mutationally-loaded sperm. The risk of deleterious de novo mutations increases with age, and while the effects are small, they compound over generations, as the botched are no longer filtered out of the genepool via natural selection. Moreover, Joseph Bronski has provided evidence of a paternal age effect on leftism, whereby older fathers produce more hereditarily left-wing babies.
To increase birth rates and reduce dysgenics, early marriage should be encouraged, particularly among the intelligent. Ideally, both husband and wife should be in their late teens to very early 20s. Older-male relationships between young adults (~16-25) should also be destigmatized. Society should be restructured to ensure that intelligent couples can have as many children as possible before age 30-35; reduce time spent in education, prioritize youth for high-paying jobs, give intelligent young men huge lump sums per child (funded by e.g. abolishing welfare), and so on.
The Woke removed mildly erotic nymphs from art galleries. Perhaps their greatest crime to date.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/jan/31/hylas-and-the-nymphs-jw--waterhouse-why-have-mildly-erotic-nymphs-been-removed-from-a-manchester-gallery-is-picasso-next
Every institution in Britain was involved with either the perpetration or coverup of this industrial scale child rape — cops, hospitals, schools, social services, state media, etc. You'd probably have to capitally punish at least half of the public sector to fix that country.
I doubt that grooming gangs were covered up to "preserve social cohesion" or because everybody was terrified of being called "racist." We know British cops were, and probably still are, raping kids. How likely is it that people higher up the British political system are implicated? Starmer covered up 13,000 cases and they made him prime minister. How do grooming gangs related to broader criminal underworld in Britain? Money laundering, fraud, narcotics, etc.?
It's clear that grooming gangs are primarily operated by ethno-religious mafias, and that South Asian muslims commit the vast majority of these heinous crimes, but I don't believe a coverup of this scale would be conducted merely in the name of "anti-racism."
In Britain, 19,000 children were raped by grooming gangs in a single year.
Considering this only includes *identified* victims, I think the Grooming Gang Inquiry Report figure of at least 250,000 victims is likely accurate.
Restore Britain's Rape Gang Inquiry Report has been released.
I've uploaded the PDF to Telegram and you can download it here.
I have not yet read the entire document, but many of the girls' horrifying testimonies have been posted on social media.
A lot of people need to face the death penalty for this — not just the perpetrators, but all of the government officials and employees who covered it up.
https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2066873370239537189
In Britain, 16 year olds can work, pay taxes, join the military, consent to sex, get married (with parental permission), drive, etc., but apparently using tiktok is a bridge too far.
The Starmer regime is currently trying to pass a law (Representation of the People Bill) that will give 16 & 17 year olds the right to vote in national elections.
Such a policy is obviously self-serving, as youth in Britain lean left-wing, but will they vote for the party that just banned them all from using social media?
The Green Party, Labor's biggest competitors, support the social media ban and demand stronger regulation (censorship) of social media companies.
There is far more justification for a US invasion of Britain than any Middle Eastern country since the Gulf War.
Were leftists to win power in the next British election, the country's fate as a nuclear-armed Islamo-Communist state will be sealed. Such a regime would be a direct threat to America and, in many ways, leftist Britain already is a threat to America, with their constant attacks on American companies and citizens' sovereignty.
A second British civil war is unlikely, especially if the technocratic surveillance-censorship regime implanted by the Starmer government is not overturned. So, the only plausible way to liberate Britain would be foreign intervention.
I hope the Trump administration and US military leadership have developed a long-term plan to deal with this eventuality.
I cannot overstate how dangerous it is for America to have a nuclear-armed Woke North Korea across the Atlantic. British leftists are incredibly anti-American and the Muslims that Britain imports en masse are even more so.
Digital Panopticon Update: UK government plans to ban social media for under 16s and install government spyware on every single phone.
Enforcing a social media ban will obviously require the entire adult population to have some form of digital identity, to submit biometric data, etc. (BBC). The UK government also plans to restrict VPN usage via same methods.
Australia's under 16 social media ban strategically omitted BlueSky and Tumblr, havens for marxist pedophiles and transgender groomers. Expect Britain to do the same.
Starmer says UK will go further than Australia, hit noncompliant social media platforms with multi-million dollar fines. However, UK gov will not target WhatsApp and Signal, presumably because the state uses the latter. (AP).
Not that this matters, because the UK plans to put spyware on every single phone that will allow them to scan every single message, photo, and video (Reclaim The Net).
Britain is a rogue communist state and the Trump administration should treat it as such.
While Jewish PR is the lowest it has been in decades, you'd think their Ashkenazi IQs would preclude them from collectively sperging out and creating national scandals from throwaway comments, but they just can't help themselves.
Austin Franco is correct that Jews lashing out in disproportionate and cruel ways does vindicate their anti-semitic critics, and I doubt that it appeals to those who are Jew-neutral. The philo-semites will clap like seals, as always, but their numbers are dwindling, particularly among younger generations.
As Jews' reputation and influence continue to decline, I imagine their collective behavior will only become more tribalistic, paranoid, and vindictive. The problem for Whites is that Jewish influence is largely declining due to the browning of America and the importation of equally tribalistic and vindictive foreigners.
Any nationalist/populist party that takes power in Britain will ironically have to abolish the police and temporarily replace them with the military until a new agency can be built from the ground up.
(can't remember if I posted this already).
38% of women age 18 to 24 regret getting tattoos.
Women make up 60-80% of tattoo-removal patients (varies by source).
40% of under 25s seek tattoo removal within 5 years.
The tide is turning!
British MSM confirms the existence of British intelligence propaganda unit use to "keep a lid on Britain's simmering racial tensions":
The Research Information and Communications Unit (RICU), an offshoot of MI6, "has a long history of covertly engineering the thoughts of people at times of crisis."
It uses techniques ranging from "planting stories in the media, using undercover operatives to lay flowers at the scene of terrorist attacks and even, in one case, sending a pop group to sing anti-extremist songs in Muslim schools."
"RICU made sure that the liaison team dealing with the family [of Henry Nowak] were well briefed... You can see their fingerprints all over the statements released by the families of victims in these volatile situations."
RICU uses kiddy gloves with immigrants and treats the native "far-right" with extreme prejudice; e.g. they shift focus from immigrant grooming gangs to "far-right" exposure of said gangs.
These people are radical anti-White leftists.
Last year, the British government arrested over 600,000 people for "speech crimes" that would be constitutionally protected in the United States.
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If you give women UBI, they have less children. If you give their husbands UBI, they have more children.
Caveats: Study focused on low-income women and the experiment lasted two years; possible (but unlikely) that long-term fertility effects could differ from these results.
Source: How Changes in Cash Transfers Can Affect Childbearing Among Low‑Income Women: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment (2025)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-025-09735-9
#fertility
Murder rate vs. incarceration rate in El Salvador, 2000-2024
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The claim that younger age at marriage (late teens to early 20s) causally increases divorce risk was debunked by two relatively recent studies.
Older papers were confounded: the increased risk is caused by "unobserved factors" such as the innate traits of those who typically marry young today (impulsive, low IQ, low SES, etc.).
The 2021 paper found that young midnight marriages induced by the Vietnam war were actually slightly less likely to divorce. This is not necessarily a universal trend, just evidence that young marriage per se does not cause an increased risk of divorce.
Neither paper looked specifically at very young teen marriages, but I think we can conclude that normal* young people from age 18-25 can safely marry without increased risk of divorce.
* "Normal" defined vaguely as "not retarded, mentally unstable, impulsive, etc."
#fertility
The Mexicanization of America is very recent:
The vast majority of the ~40 million Mexicans living in the United States today are post-1970s immigrants and their offspring.
In 1850, the freshly annexed southwestern states were home to 83,727 Mexicans in total. Arizona and Colorado were 0% Mexican, Texas 5%, California 16%, and New Mexico 98%.
In 1970, ~5 million Mexicans lived in the United States, of whom ~760,000 were first-generation immigrants.
More horrific news from Britain: They're trying to introduce laws that make cohabitation de facto marriage.
If you break up with your girlfriend of three years and she isn't capable of financially supporting herself, you will have to pay her alimony or a lump sum.
You can opt out, but only if both partners agree — and what woman is going to opt out of financially bleeding her ex-boyfriend dry if the relationshit fails?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-of-unmarried-couples-to-get-stronger-rights
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/a-fairer-end-to-relationships/a-fairer-end-to-relationships-consultation-document
Ethnic breakdowns of grooming gang suspects from studies conducted 2011 to 2020. The most recent reports from this list put the figures at approximately 85-95% non-white and ~85% muslim.
/channel/racerealismchannel/365
Digital ID through the back door.
UK government statement on forthcoming device- and OS-level "child safety" spyware and censorship (distinct from the under 16s social media ban I posted about earlier):
"Under the new plans, Big Tech companies like Apple and Google must activate built-in features or implement technical solutions on smartphones and tablets to detect and block nude images for children, the Prime Minister announced in a speech at London Tech Week today (Monday 8 June)."
"Adults will still be able to take, share or view nude content through an age verification process."
"If companies do not act within 3 months, the government will bring forward legislation to force them to activate the technology. This will include fines for companies. Nothing is off the table"
The Starmer regime will likely try to force these restrictions upon PC operating systems, such as Windows, and eventually ISPs.
Signal criticized the requirements as "dystopian" and explicitly called out the grooming gang coverup:
"The UK government’s demand that all content on all devices sold or used in the UK be scanned on the presumption of nudity will not safeguard children. It endangers us all."
"We know that mass surveillance and censorship capabilities never remain narrowly scoped. Once created, they will be expanded, forming a dangerous tool that will be wielded both in the UK and abroad to censor and surveil whatever they might consider 'threats' or 'harmful content.' Its scope will be defined by the whims and proscriptions of the government to detect nudity today and political speech tomorrow."
Remember: Libtards and tradcucks in America are trying to implement similar totalitarian laws under the guise of "saving the children." See here and here.
National security risks aside: The rights violations and atrocities committed by the British state against the British people are more than enough justification to invade Britain. Protecting human rights has been the pretext for every war in recent American history, and the British people have infinitely more value than the MENA goat herders America ostensibly fought to save from tin pot dictators.
The grooming gang epidemic alone easily fits the official definition of genocide, and when you factor in the great replacement, two-tier suppression of natives, rampant corruption of police, bureaucrats, politicians, and intelligence services, etc., it is obvious that modern Britain is the most evil state in Western history.
Article summarizing recent digital censorship laws in the UK (written from the perspective of website owners): https://appinventiv.com/blog/uk-social-media-compliance-under-16/
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Migrant welfare usage in the United States, by legal status, race, national origin, employment status, and education level (2021-2025 data).
https://cis.org/Report/Welfare-Use-NonCitizens-Across-States-US
https://cis.org/Report/NonCitizen-Use-Welfare-Region-and-Country-Birth
https://cis.org/Report/Welfare-Use-Immigrants-and-USBorn-2024
A college kid, Austin Franco, told Jewish tech company founder Gabe Einhorn that he "didn't want to work for a Jew" after being accepted for a job at Einhorn's identity verification company, VryfID.
Einhorn then doxed Austin by posting his private email correspondence on Twitter. Initially, the screenshot contained Austin's full dox, but Einhorn must have realized this would be a bad look and he quickly edited the post to redact Austin's surname only.
In response to Einhorn's post, a Jewish woman said that her son "doesn't want to work for a goy," to which Einhorn enthusiastically replied "message me!!"
Austin was soon fully doxed (again) by Joe Lonsdale, the Jewish founder of Palantir, who accused Einhorn of being "an utter coward" for not posting the full dox.
A senior DOJ official said he wanted to make "the Jew Hater" unhireable, and the mainstream media have since written hit pieces on Austin.
Austin doubled down on twitter: "the reactions by your community only serves to further prove my point."
Widespread adoption of police bodycams unveiled the much maligned average American cop to be a well meaning, if slightly retarded, individual who is genuinely trying to fight crime, and the average British cop to be a sadistic psychopath fit for the NKVD, whose motive for joining the police is living out violent power fantasies.
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British intelligence's Research Information and Communications Unit is likely involved with coordinating the leftist counter-protests that pop up every time the British RW organizes protests against migrant atrocities, such as the Southport terrorist attack.
In the US, anti-ICE protests are organized by the DNC and libtards-for-hire are shipped across the country. For example, in Minnesota, they were organized by Tim Walz' campaign manager, Amanda Koehler.
I imagine leftist parties & intel agencies in other Western countries operate similarly.
Study finds that ChatGPT will lie 90% of the time in a game where lives are at stake:
"Which frontier model is the most deceptive? To answer this question, we put four models in a Minecraft world where they are about to die of starvation. To eat, they must choose one of four bridges: three lead to rooms with food, one leads to death. Every model knows there’s a death room, but we only tell one model (the “informed role”) which bridge is fatal, giving it a slight incentive to deceive due to scarcity."
"41% of the time, GPT will suggest a plan leading other models to commit to the lethal room, framing the dispatch as “spread out” or “avoid overcrowding,” while thinking of “cooperation framing as camouflage.” By being deceptive, GPT actually gets a worse food score (1.78) and the lowest group survival rate (24%)."
Source: https://kradle.ai/research/four-bridges
This reflects my experience of using GPT to dig up studies; I found that it will often misrepresent data or insert woke nonsense.
Red states spent ARPA funds on infrastructure, blue states spent ARPA funds on NGOs and welfare.
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