$TSLA - TESLA SHARES RISE 3.5% AFTER NEW MUSK $1 TRILLION COMPENSATION PLAN LINKED TO STIFF TARGETS
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HASSETT ON FED: THERE'S A LOT OF REASON FOR OPTIMISM
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HASSETT U.S. JOBS: EXPECT IT WILL REVISE UP
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HASSETT ON JOBS: A BIT OF A DISAPPOINTMENT
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VITAL KNOWLEDGE: FED WOULD CUT 50BP IF NOT FOR TARIFFS
Adam Crisafulli says weak labor data (BLS, ADP, JOLTs, ISMs, Challenger) supports Fed easing. Without tariff-driven inflation risks, the Fed would likely cut 50bp on Sept. 17 and 25bp at the next two meetings.
Instead, investors should expect three 25bp cuts (75bp total) this year. For stocks, lower rates help, but the depth of labor weakness is a growing concern.
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MARKETS PRICE IN RATE CUT, SEE 12% ODDS OF HALF-POINT MOVE
Traders now see a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates this month, with a 12% chance of a larger 50 bp cut. Before the weak payrolls report, markets expected a cut but not of that size.
Annex Wealth’s Brian Jacobsen said revisions showed “nearly net zero job creation,” reviving talk of a bigger move. Short-term Treasury yields fell sharply after the data.
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GOLDMAN SACHS TRADER: BUY THE SEPTEMBER DIP.
Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone advises buying September’s stock dip, predicting the S&P 500 could climb to 6,700–6,900 as rate cuts boost growth.
In a note issued before the latest jobs report, he said markets are already pricing in a Fed cutting cycle that will spur economic re-acceleration. August jobs growth was just 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.3%. The weak data pushed the dollar lower, yields down, and stocks higher.
Schiavone sees the Fed’s long-run rate near 3%, similar to the ECB, and expects stretched valuations in credit and equities to persist. He recommends owning rates volatility, buying equity dips, and watching Nasdaq and Russell indexes for signals.
He also warns of risks from “fiscal dominance,” where central banks lose independence, which could raise front-end rates and stagflation risks. For now, he stresses that incoming data must “carry the load.”
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DXY DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO 5-WEEK LOW OF 97.516 AFTER JOBS DATA
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US TREASURY TWO-YEAR YIELD FALLS FURTHER, DOWN 6.2 BPS AT 3.528%
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🚨 TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER
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*US AUG. AVG WORKWEEK 34.2 HOURS; EST. 34.3
*US AUG. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL -12K M/M; EST. -5K
*US AUG. PRIVATE PAYROLLS RISE 38K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. PARTICIPATION RATE 62.3%; EST. 62.2%
*US AUG. UNDEREMPLOYMENT 8.1%
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TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.55%, LOWEST SINCE APRIL 7
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SPX Reaction Guide (09/05/2025 – NFP Scenarios)
🔸 NFP < 0: SPX -1.50%
🔸 0–24k: SPX -0.75%
🔸 25k–49k: SPX ±0.25%
🔸 50k–74k (est. +60k): SPX +0.50%
🔸 75k–100k: SPX +0.75% https://t.co/BRk5Nf0CyL
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LUTNICK: WRONG FOR INDIA TO INCREASE PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN OIL
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BLS REPORTS TECHNICAL ISSUES AHEAD OF JOBS DATA
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead of the September 5 jobs report release at 8:30 a.m. ET. It hasn’t indicated whether the outage will delay publication.
The employment report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, shaping markets and Fed policy
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*S&P 500 RISES 0.5% AT THE OPEN, NASDAQ UP 0.8%
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*TRADERS PRICE IN CHANCE OF HALF-POINT FED RATE CUT THIS MONTH
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HASSETT: ECONOMY IS PREPARED FOR TARIFFS
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INTEREST-RATE FUTURES PRICE ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF A HALF-POINT FED RATE CUT IN SEPT, UP FROM ZERO BEFORE JOBS DATA
https://t.co/MTBwgpMK1m
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*TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 3.48%
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SAUDI ARABIA WANTS OPEC+ TO SPEED UP NEXT OIL PRODUCTION BOOST
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MANUFACTURING JOBS FELL BY 12,000 AND ARE NOW DOWN BY 78,000 OVER THE YEAR: NONFARM REPORT
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SPOT GOLD HITS FRESH RECORD HIGH OF $3,578.98/OZ
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NONFARM REPORT: WITH THESE REVISIONS, EMPLOYMENT IN JUNE AND JULY COMBINED IS 21,000 LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
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🚨 *US AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 22K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.3%
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🚨 U.S. AUGUST NONFARM PAYROLLS +22,000 (CONSENSUS +75,000) VS JULY +79,000 (PREV +73,000), JUNE -13,000 (PREV +14,000)
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LUTNICK BLAMES BLS ISSUES ON OLD LEADERSHIP
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*US YIELDS DIP AMID BLS TECHNICAL PROBLEMS BEFORE JOBS REPORT
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LUTNICK ON INDIA: WE ARE ALWAYS WILLING TO TALK
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LUTNICK: US ECO NUMBERS WILL GET BETTER AFTER STAFF CHANGES
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