A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 20:45

Should we give away some EdgeFinder copies?

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 17:43

This setup with high retail optimism and lower COT bullishness suggests the potential bearishness we may start to see in currencies trading against the dollar. This chart shows that smart money is increasingly short NZDUSD while retail is heavily long after yesterday's FOMC conference.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 16:41

Right now the US indices are neutral for the most part. The market doesn't know where to go with the data we have now. Mixed sentiment is usually a bad place for traders unless they are taking quick intraday moves like what we have seen the past couple weeks.

The Russell is very interest rate sensitive as it consists of smaller companies that need yields lower for a smoother business operation. If you take a look at the US indices, you might have noticed that despite the 2-3% moves that happened during the day ended up closing back to where they opened.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 15:39

NZDUSD is flashing bearish signals on the EdgeFinder. The score is now -12 and has remained lower than -10 for the most part for the last month. This is likely due to the monetary shift in Fed sentiment who had originally forecasted three rate cuts by the end of this year.

However, we are not seeing any of these plans come to fruition as we approach the middle of the year. Now the question remains when, if any, the cuts will come. As forecasts keep getting pushed back deeper into the year, it raises fears that they won't come until next year.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

01 May 2024 19:14

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01 May 2024 16:38

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 20:46

Point 4: USD outperformance is clear on the top setups scoring page.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 20:45

Point 2: Jobs data is strong. People are employed, consumer still spending, earnings still healthy for companies. This could lead to a persistent period of demand induced inflation!

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 20:45

It is unlikely, but don't rule out the possibility of Powell mentioning rate hikes potentially being appropriate tomorrow.

This could lead to continued USD strength, and a continued selloff in the stock market.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 18:10

EURUSD Daily Chart:

Big picture, the dollar continues to look strong relative to European peers.

Like this message if you want me to expand more details... for those of you fundamental nerds like me!

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 17:20

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 20:23

Unemployment claims came in lower than expected but matched last month's number of 212K claims. Lesser claims than expected is a good sign that unemployment is slowing down and the job market is still in line with Fed policy.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 19:31

Retail is betting heavily on crypto right now. The majority of the crowd is bearish dollar despite the continued rise in yields. The US indices are now mixed after being in retail's short positions. This could be a sign that traders are getting more bullish on stocks.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 18:56

Small cap stocks are taking the biggest beating right now due to their highly sensitive nature to interest yields and borrowing costs. Geopolitical tensions are also not going to help this index perform well if sentiment turns to risk off.

Despite strong economic data, it is actually hurting optimism in the short term due to the fears of higher interest rates for longer. The market is trying to pare some of the losses from the last few days, although the S&P and NASDAQ have broken under significant levels on the 1D timeframe.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 17:55

EdgeFinder's Indices Data Scanner Page: Russell 2000
- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 18:14

The yield curve has been a very accurate predictor of a stock market correction. You can see when the chart crosses below the inversion level, a correction has happened in the years following. 2000, 2008, 2020 have all been major market crashes. But right now, we are sitting at over 600 days on being inverted with no signs of a market crash.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 17:01

Retail is now decisively short the dollar as GU and AU sit in the top sell positions while metals, oil, crypto, and indices mostly remain in their top buys.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 May 2024 16:02

The NAS100 seems relatively unbothered by the fact there might not be any rate cuts this year. Price is only 5% off the highs it made earlier in the year as the lack of volatility this week is keeping stocks within a range of support and resistance.

What we can likely expect is choppiness from positive growth in earnings yet stubborn inflation. Tomorrow's NFP is going to be another big news day, and we'll see if that is enough to give the markets a decisive move. It seems that a lower jobs number will be bearish for the indices given the fact we would have a slower jobs market and higher than expected inflation.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

01 May 2024 20:24

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

01 May 2024 17:24

USDCAD remains strong as yields stay elevated above 5% and oil prices fall. As we get ready for FOMC today, stocks dip at the bell and wait for Powell’s speech on monetary policy and interest rate decision. The most probable outcome is for rates to stay where they are at 5.5% with a mention from Powell that they may remain elevated until they see further confidence in inflation returning to their 2% target.
- Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

01 May 2024 14:23

Update on my IWM / Russell position:

I've moved my stop slightly in profit. While I believe the Powell may sound more hawkish today due to sticky inflation, these events can be volatile and if a surprise dovish note causes markets to pop, I will take profits. - Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 20:45

Point 3: COT data shows steady demand for USD, and recent selling of indices.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 20:45

Point 1: US Inflation progress has slowed. - measured by CPI

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 18:19

Check this table out. Here's a quick rundown!

- COT data: shows bullish preference for USD over EURO
- Retail positioning: Retail is long this pair, which is a contrarian signal
- Seasonality: April historically bearish
- Trend: bearish!
- GDP: favors Euro
- PMI data favors USD
- Retail sales: strong in the US, weakening in Europe
- Inflation: sticky in the US, which could mean monetary policy remains restrictive in the US when compared to the ECB
- Jobs data: strong USD

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 17:20

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 Apr 2024 17:04

Gold
Metals grow weaker as a result of the shift in risk sentiment. Yields are an important factor in gold’s health so the higher it goes, the weaker gold may get. Price could test a broken trend line on the 1D timeframe should price move lower. If the Fed wants to remain restrictive, this could hurt gold as well.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 20:01

GBPUSD shifted from appearing more bullish to mixed as COT has flatlined the number of positions added to the long side on this pair. Meanwhile, retail is getting increasingly long indicating that the pair could dip further.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 19:16

Russell down.. - Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 18:31

Gold is still very strong on the 1D timeframe. Price clearly does not want to break under the support zone around $2300 despite rising yields. This is a concerning indication to investors that we could be in a heavy risk-off environment suddenly.

Rate cut forecasts keep getting pushed back further into the year, and at this rate, may get pushed into next year. The shift we saw in October through March was an optimistic one, but now it seems like we are back to the strict monetary policy we thought was over. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 Apr 2024 17:54

Russell 2000, 4H chart: I am short! Let's see how it goes. I've written up my reasoning below.

- Interest rates look like they may remain higher for longer. This bodes poorly for the russell 2000, which is an index comprised of smaller cap stocks that are more interest rate sensitive. This is due to their larger need for borrowing, as well as having less cash on hand when compared to large cap companies (S&P500)
- Retesting resistance, downtrenc, 20 period moving average retest. Stops above structure
- EdgeFinder bearish reading on the indices data scanner page

- Nick