A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

12 Jun 2024 14:36

Cooler CPI numbers across the board... probably going to be weaker dollar with strong indices and gold

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 Jun 2024 18:47

Gold
Gold rises at the market open as stocks fall. Investors are still trying to figure out which asset would work best against the dollar as we expect lower inflation data tomorrow. Regardless of why the Fed may cut rates this year, it will still be a bullish sign for gold as it means a weaker dollar. However, if CPI runs hotter than expected, rates will have to stay higher for longer which could hurt gold’s price over time.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 Jun 2024 21:31

The reason for this confusion couples with the fact that COT is also short this week on the indices. US30 and SPX are the largest changes to the short side. This may suggest that no one knows where the market is heading for now. This week will definitely provide a clearer picture on smart money sentiment, but there is so much uncertainty that it is hard for me to guess where I think indices, gold and dollar are headed in the short term.
-Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 Jun 2024 20:46

Adding to the overall market indecisiveness, retail is strongly short biased against the S&P at over 70% short. NAS is also majority short, and Dow Jones is mixed.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 Jun 2024 18:36

The demand for gold remained mostly unchanged from last week's COT. Price crumbled on Friday on better than expected NFP. However, with an uptick in unemployment to 4%, the US has not seen this level for a few years. Once we hit this threshold, finding a job becomes increasingly harder for women and minorities.

Price hit support and may be trying to bounce from the lows after a 3% drop Friday. For this week, we are going to need to see worse economic projections from FOMC and lower CPI. The reason lower inflation is bullish is because it can prompt the Fed to cut. Higher or sticky inflation will only delay the rate cut and continue to put pressure on the metal's demand. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

09 Jun 2024 15:20

THIS WEEK'S MAJOR NEWS EVENTS!
This week is a busy week in the markets. Don't miss out on the action. Click here to see our livestream schedule.

Wednesday
🗓 8:30 AM EST: USD CPI
🗓 2:00 PM EST: FOMC

Thursday
🗓 8:30 AM EST: PPI & Unemployment

Friday
🗓 10:00 AM EST: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

⭐️ FREE RELATED COURSES:
How to Trade CPI Data
How to Trade PPI Data
How to Trade Consumer Sentiment

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

07 Jun 2024 17:06

Jobs data was perceived as bullish this morning as May added more jobs than expected although last month was revised lower by 10K. Unemployment also ticked up to 4% for the first time in two years with a slight increase in wages. Higher wages may also indicate that we could be looking at higher inflation in next week's CPI report. There is almost no fear in the market right now even with many metrics indicating an economic slowdown. The hype around an interest rate cut is still in play.

The S&P broke out of a falling wedge and is now at all time highs. It's hard to say how much further the market will move, and every dip continues to get bought back up. Sellers have not appropriately stepped in yet, so we may continue to see dip buying opportunities in the near future. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 Jun 2024 20:33

🎊 GET REIMBURSED FOR THE EDGEFINDER!
Get reimbursed for your EdgeFinder purchase by OANDA when you meet specific requirements.

Full terms & conditions available here.

Note: You MUST sign up for OANDA using THIS LINK to qualify. Only available for US Clients. Offer ends August 31st.

🎁 TAKE 20% OFF YOUR EDGEFINDER PURCHASE!
It keeps getting better 🕺Use code TGVIP for 20% off your EdgeFinder purchase here.

Have questions? MESSAGE US!

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 Jun 2024 17:07

As the market sits at all time highs, investors may start to question whether the rally is sustainable or not. Regardless of jobs numbers this week, it seems that NVDA is a key factor in the S&P's strength which is now a $3 trillion market cap and is the second biggest company in the world.

NVDA's bullish sentiment is revolved around the 10/1 stock split on Friday which could drive even more demand into the company. Although the stock won't become cheaper on a value basis, it will be less expensive for investors to participate in the trade. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 Jun 2024 15:59

Today's unemployment number came out higher than expected for the second week in a row. Wednesday's ADP NFP was softer as well indicating a slowdown in the private payrolls. Tomorrow is NFP, and analysts expect a higher number than last month. But the signs so far this week are pointing to a cooling jobs market.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 Jun 2024 15:28

USOil
Oil prices dump as we start the month of June. An indication of crumbling oil prices could be due to a growing fear of recession as jobs slow again this month. ADP NFP came in lower than expected to 152K. Yields are already falling on the day after worse than expected jobs news. This year is also an election year which could be another reason why oil prices are dropping. There is not a strong reason for the Fed to cut rates unless we see something start to break. If jobs start cooling further, we could see a risk of recession, and the Fed may be prompted to cut. However, they also have to keep in mind that inflation still remains elevated. Until then, oil may continue to fall. -Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 Jun 2024 20:43

Whats the difference between fundamental and technical analysis? Click here to find out.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 Jun 2024 17:55

There has been a steady rise in unemployment, steady fall in job openings, and a mostly-lower NFP trend. With earnings season wrapping up, it looks like PMI and NFP are the only things that will affect the stock market. Now that we are nearing all time highs in the S&P, the question is whether it can justify being at this level with a weaker economic outlook. Friday's NFP may be the market's last line of defense this week for the bull market.
-Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 Jun 2024 20:19

ISM Manufacturing PMI data came in lower than expected at 48.7 indicating another concern in the overall US economy. Events to strengthen the dollar would likely be a higher JOLTS number and a higher NFP from both the private and public sector.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 Jun 2024 19:19

Retail is now long dollar by shorting AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD. They are also long metals other than gold, long crypto, and long NAS100 and RUSSELL.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 Jun 2024 19:52

EUR/USD
After the ECB’s rate cut, the euro might be much weaker than the dollar now. This is because the US still fears that we might not get a cut this year while Europe’s monetary policy becomes looser. The pair is now on support on a falling trend line and may have to test the lows again. If CPI is higher, we might be looking at a bearish EU pair.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 Jun 2024 17:40

S&P500
Although the market has hit a consolidation zone and technicals point to being overbought, we can’t pull a continuation of the rally off the table quite yet. Unlike most assets, the stock market tends to trend upward until a fundamental crack in the economy’s infrastructure. With CPI tomorrow and the Fed’s forecasted projection of the economy and interest rates, we have to consider another melt up if inflation numbers come in cooler. There is also long term support on the rising trend line on the 1D timeframe should price retrace. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 Jun 2024 21:02

🚨FREE GUIDE: Learn how to trade the COT Reports like a pro!

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 Jun 2024 19:27

EURUSD is no longer a strong bullish score on the EdgeFinder and is now hovering around neutral. The US economy is performing better than the EU, and ECB cut their interest rate out of concern for the economy.

Depending on the CPI data, FOMC may take a more hawkish stance if inflation remains sticky. If CPI moves lower, investors may become very excited for a rate cut in September. So, a lower CPI could be bullish EURUSD and a higher CPI may be bearish. -Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 Jun 2024 18:35

The 10 year treasury bond is bullish at +7, our most bullish asset on the EdgeFinder. The reason bond prices are in demand is due to the expectations of lower bond yields in the future. Lower yields means higher prices.

Investors are not expecting rates to go higher now that the Fed talks more about cutting than hiking. The next likely move from the Fed will be to lower interest rates, thus propelling bond prices. If we want to see a more expensive 10 year bond, we probably want to see lower inflation.
-Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

07 Jun 2024 17:07

Gold reacted negatively to the labor data this morning possibly due to the fact that NFP was higher. Maybe gold traders are not confident in a rate cut after seeing a "resilient" jobs market. The two year yield is higher today which also indicates a lack of confidence on the rate cuts. Gold is now on support on the 1D timeframe and is looking to possibly test back under the $2,300 level on support. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 Jun 2024 21:05

Retail is now 90% long USOil which is due to its heavy drop in price this week. Falling oil prices could be a result of it being an election year, so I would not bank on oil seeing heavy upside this year. The indices are majority shorted by retail which is another sign for bullishness in stocks for now.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 Jun 2024 19:25

The dollar remains weaker against the euro as rates seem capped and a rate cut could be the next move from the Fed. EURUSD is now a +10 which up 2 points from yesterday. Regardless of the reason for the cut, this means dollar weakness.

The Fed would like the luxury of cutting as in the economy shows signs of health. However, the signs of a cooling jobs market is not what the Fed wants. And if NFP comes in lower, it's going to look even more bearish for the dollar. This could cause more demand to the bullish side on EU. -Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 Jun 2024 16:00

Gold is still our best bullish reading on the EdgeFinder at +11. The reason behind the metal's bullishness is coupled with the fact that we're seeing a cooling jobs market. Obviously, NFP could change the narrative on Friday, but for now it looks like the economy is not as healthy as analysts hoped.

Investors want signs of a rate cut which coincides with a softer NFP, but it might not be for bullish reasons in the stock market. If the Fed feels forced to cut because of a worse economy, that is not a healthy reason for stocks. But it is for gold which trades as a hedge against the dollar and yields which continue to fall. -Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 Jun 2024 20:15

We got softer private payroll numbers and a much higher Services PMI report this morning. This PMI number was the highest reported since last October 2023. There is surely mixed economic figures coming out as the stock market chugs on to all time highs in the NASDAQ. Friday's NFP is expected to come in higher than last month, but a miss could signify an overall cooling jobs market. Stocks may be able to keep running if there is no clear sign of a jobs decline. If NFP does come in higher, gold might get weaker and stocks may move higher.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 Jun 2024 20:57

USD/CHF
One reason why the market may be holding up for now is the lack of bullish sentiment around the dollar. And investors want to look for an alternative to where they should put their money. The fact that US interest rates might be capped at 5.5% means that demand in bond yields and dollar are not as strong as they used to be.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 Jun 2024 18:33

The SPX500 has still not gave in to added pressure from a broader decline in economic outlook. With earnings season coming to a close, the only things left standing in its way for the week are JOLTS, Services PMI and NFP. Although we have seen pessimism in the US economy in the past, the market is quick to recover the losses it incurs from bad news.

-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 Jun 2024 17:44

Gold
Gold is now the top bullish setup on the EdgeFinder at +11. With weaker ISM PMI on Monday, the US is expecting a lower JOLTS report this morning which would mark the fourth straight month of falling job openings. If JOLTS misses, we could see more demand in the gold market. Right now, price is resting on a key support level on the 1D timeframe around a rising trend line. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 Jun 2024 19:49

COT is now short NAS and US30, long GBP, EUR, AUD and gold. Seeing this sentiment diverge with retail is a significant indicator that the dollar is weaker. USD saw little to no interest this week again.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 Jun 2024 18:49

What we are seeing in the bond market also depicts a fall in bond yields. As bond prices get higher, yields move lower. Right now, bonds are one of the top bullish scores on the EdgeFinder. Smart money is over 60% long on bond prices as they are betting on lower yields in the future.

The longer inflation remains elevated, the Fed won't cut. But they are also adamant about staying where they're at. So in a way, yields are capped in the eyes of investors. This means that it's only a matter of time before interest rates begin to drop. That's why COT is buying bonds.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP