A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 Aug 2024 19:11

Gold has mostly remained steady in COT positioning while retail went heavily long. This is usually not a great sign for continued bullishness on an asset that has already run up so far.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 Aug 2024 16:31

USDJPY rises on the day after the positive GDP numbers in the US this morning. But the score still remains very bearish on the EdgeFinder's outlook. Other factors like smart money pouring into the yen, weak seasonality, poor labor conditions, and expected lower yields next month are keeping the score negative.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 Aug 2024 15:29

The $3 trillion tech giant beat all estimates except guidance on next earnings. Because it wasn't a perfect report, the stock is struggling to push any higher than where it is now. In order to see higher highs in the stock and the index it resides, earnings needs to be constantly blowing it out of the water.

This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 Aug 2024 20:50

Just joking. I have stops trailed and curious to see how it goes. If markets tank, I'll adapt!

Expect high volatility for those watching indices & tech stocks.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 Aug 2024 17:11

Tech stocks are rattled this morning in the wake of a heavy earnings report from NVDIA today after the bell. It’s hard to tell what we are going to get this quarter from AI earnings, but analysts predict it will bring lots of volatility to the markets. The chip maker will have to beat revenue, earnings, and have a strong guidance in order to justify these prices. If not, we could see a large move lower which may carry the NAS100 with it. Watch for a break under support around the 50 DMA at $19,400s.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

27 Aug 2024 18:52

Gold is down at the start of the New York session, but has shown a better resolve than the US indices. The dollar is likely going to be weaker now that investors expect a rate cut soon, so gold is probably getting more attention on the demand side than other assets. Whether it’s a stagflation issue or a deflationary issue, gold looks healthier and safer than buying stocks near the highs or hoping for a dollar reversal.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 21:07

With GDP coming up, analysts are not expecting much in terms of growth. Last month was a strong reading which is expected to happen again at 2.8%.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 18:41

Retail is buying all the global indices except UK100, so the contrarian score is bearish for most indices. Gold is mixed while the dollar is getting heavily bought.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 17:07

Precious metals are in high demand as gold touches near the all time highs again. With the Jackson Hole Symposium behind us, investors are now expecting a rate cut next month. This cut is in response to a declining jobs market which is not a good sign for the US economy.

As much as we may try to overlook the fact that inflation is stubborn and jobs are falling behind, this rate cut is not good news. In this scenario, the Fed is cutting because they think they have to, not because they have the luxury to do so. That's the thesis behind why gold will see further demand most likely. The metal is a great hedge against the weaker dollar and stock market.
- Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 16:01

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 Aug 2024 20:04

Jobless Claims Come in

Numbers came in as expected for this week's jobless claims at 232K. Markets are mostly mixed on the day as a result, but the initial reaction was negative. Because claims have been so influential on price action, the meet in expectations is probably not great for bullishness.

On top of that, NFP revisions suggested that the job market is not as healthy as we thought. The tech index is stuck between support and resistance again, but the support seems stronger due to the 50 DMA, previous double bottom and previous top.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 Aug 2024 19:06

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

21 Aug 2024 16:18

Tech stocks took a break yesterday and are holding price above heavy support. FOMC Meeting Minutes is today which will kick off this week’s volatility. Traders are anticipating talks of rate cuts in September, but Meeting Minutes are usually reiterations of the most recent FOMC. So today, Powell will likely just talk about the same thing, “data dependent” has been a popular term from the Fed. We will likely not know what the Fed’s decision is next month regarding monetary policy. The index will likely remain mixed for the day as we get economic data tomorrow and the start of Jackson Hole.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 Aug 2024 19:02

USD/JPY is the key pair to watch for insights into stock market sentiment. Investors have labeled the unwinding of the carry trade as an overreaction, expecting the dollar to regain strength. However, the chart suggests a different narrative. Time will tell if the carry trade continues to push investors out of the dollar and into the yen. The pair has hit a strong support trend line on the daily timeframe, and if it breaks this level, we could see a shift back to risk-off sentiment. This could lead to another sell-off in stocks and the dollar, while gold may gain upside demand.
- Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 Aug 2024 18:21

Tech stocks are turning lower in premarket trading after a substantial run to the upside, breaking above significant resistance on the daily timeframe. If the index pulls back further, it may seek support around the 50-day moving average. There’s likely nothing new to expect from tomorrow's FOMC meeting minutes, as Powell is expected to reiterate recent statements. With no major USD news today, we’ll likely see lighter volatility. However, volatility is expected to pick up later this week with PMI and jobless claims data on the horizon.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 Aug 2024 17:56

Retail turned bearish on the S&P, but remain mixed on NASDAQ and long RUSSELL small caps. Gold is now one of the top buys from retail too, suggesting that the metal may have topped out.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 Aug 2024 16:03

A key inflation report for the Fed is coming out tomorrow which is expected to come out unchanged. Core PCE will show us the price of goods and services purchased by consumers and tell whether or not prices are getting more or less expensive.

Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 Aug 2024 21:44

NASDAQ falls under the 50 DMA about 30 minutes before close. VIX spiked about 15% today, but it's not necessarily a warning for a sell off. Implied volatility is going up as a result of the upcoming NVDA earnings which is highly anticipated. We are pretty sensitive to news at these high prices, and investors need to see a justification to be at this level.

The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 Aug 2024 17:57

I'm waiting on the sidelines for EU and GU, but would like to buy a pullback if we see some meaningful selling in the next few days/weeks.
-Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

27 Aug 2024 20:17

USDJPY turns lower on the day too, breaking under the long term support trend line. Overall, I think it’s important to monitor this pair as it depicts economic health in the US and the unwinding of the carry trade. It somewhat looks like today may be the deciding factor on index trend. We just need to watch UJ’s potential break lower.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

27 Aug 2024 18:10

Looking at tech stocks as we approach NVDA earnings tomorrow. The index is now under the 50 DMA but has not necessarily confirmed a break below this strong level of support. The market hasn’t really moved for the past week as we bump around within this consolidation zone. Powell has pointed to a rate cut in September, but the market has not followed through with a bullish move to the highs yet. With a light news week, it seems like the indices are going to shift their focus towards earnings. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 20:05

COT reports show strange activity with the indices. NIKKEI and DOW are the top most bought. Meanwhile SPX and RUSSELL are at the bottom of the list. The dollar is also getting sold while gold and NAS are more neutral.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 18:17

Japan's stock market has recovered over half of what it lost in early August. COT shows a lot of buying in the stock market which has outpaced the yen this week. NIKKEI is usually correlated with the US stock market, so tech earnings does have an impact on Japan's stocks as well.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 Aug 2024 17:01

The NASDAQ is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder and is still a bullish reading. There is not much news around the USD this week, so most of the sentiment is going to revolve around big tech earnings. The year's money-maker has been NVDA, so there is much anticipation around the stock's earnings.

This is because investors want to be able to justify the company's valuation at current price. Unless NVIDIA cannot blow the latest report out of the water, it may cause the stock to take a sharp turn lower. Likewise, a strong beat in earnings, revenue and guidance could keep the tech market up.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

23 Aug 2024 19:38

DXY Daily Chart:

The slide in the US dollar continues - as Powell signals the fed's attention has squarely shifted away from inflation and towards employment.

This shift in focus greatly increases the chances of the fed cutting interest rates in the coming months/years, to help bolster the jobs market from its recent slowing signals.

Congrats to fellow bears - this has been a heck of a move!

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 Aug 2024 19:43

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 Aug 2024 18:37

Mixed PMI?

The latest round of PMI data came in with a beat on Services and a miss on Manufacturing. Traders might count this as mixed sentiment from purchasing managers, but it may be arguably good for the economy. Because the US is primarily a service economy, it seems more important to see improvement in that area over the other.

Gold has reacted negatively to this news and is down a little over 1% today. The EdgeFinder still think the metal is bullish, giving it a slightly stronger reading today after retail sentiment became more short.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 Aug 2024 21:25

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 Aug 2024 18:45

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

19 Jul 2024 15:01

Gold Daily Chart:

I am officially out of this trade! What a ride. Until next time XAU :)

Watching for further setups on this one!

- Nick