BTCUSD Daily:
Is this the top?
Bitcoin is seeing some selling pressure after coming just short of $100K.
I personally think bitcoin has more room to move higher, but do think we're due for a pullback...
- Nick
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Although not a big correction right now, price inched close to the $100K price target before pulling back on what could be profit taking. What makes this position tricky is that a reversal could take the crypto down 25% to the nearest support level, but price is only about 5% away from the anticipated price goal.
The psychological level has prevented price from moving to it despite the demand from businesses around this asset. One outcome we could see is a stall in price for a while where Bitcoin moves lower and stalls in the $80,000-99,000 range before we get another push.
-Frank
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Nick's Gold Trade Breakdown
August 2, 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 2472.47
🔴 Exit Price: 2567.87
Trade Result: $1,816.36 (3.97%)
Technical Analysis:
After breaking a key level of daily resistance, and pulling back into now support, a buy entry was executed with stops just below recent swing lows.
Fundamental Analysis:
With the fed poised to cut rates in 2024, and uncertain economic conditions (notably, cooling jobs data and a weakening US dollar)
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Jobless claims came in lower for the third straight week in a row. Revisions are slightly holding us back as previous numbers keep getting revised higher. The overall trend is lower however, and seeing a steady in the jobs market could be what investors are looking for.
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Here is bitcoin's COT vs retail positioning. We can see that retail is getting increasingly long while COT is dropping their positions. This could be telling us that this current wave of price swings could be retail-led. With the introduction of more options trading on BTC ETFs, institutions and retail traders alike could be flooding the market with interest.
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Bitcoin to $100,000
The reason Bitcoin's price could come up to $100k by month end is not just because it's very close to target, but because there are opportunities for the crypto to fly to $110,000. Options on crypto ETFs have been launched by Black Rock to allow and encourage further speculation in the coin's price. This could lead to short term interest and take Bitcoin past expectations, become over extended, and possibly correct. In the short term, $110,000 might be the top, with support much lower at $80,000.
-Frank
S&P 500
The market slid this morning on Russia-Ukraine tensions. Now price is back to break even on the day as we await NVDA’s earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Walmart beat earnings this morning which was good news for the countercyclical business and may suggest higher demand in consumer defensive stocks. However, we now have perhaps the biggest earnings play of the year at 4 pm EST tomorrow. This report will likely set the tone for all of tech, especially semis and AI companies. If we do see a beat in both EPS and revenue along with an upward guidance, we will likely get the green light on indices.
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BTCUSD Daily Chart
The crypto gods are favoring us this day.
Bitcoin just became my top performing trade this year...
- Nick
I'm watching several charts - but I wanted to share this screenshot.
I am finding it hard to find new entries at this time, because several of the top setups ideas are currently not fully agreeing with price action.
I would like to see a technical setup + fundamental setup, and currently don't see many setups that have confluence between the two.
Staying patient, but watching!
- Nick
This week we will see another GDP number on Wednesday. Expectations are 2.8% which was October's actual. This means that forecasts have declined from the 3% from the last two months. As long as the actual number is in line with analysts' forecasts, it should be a mild reaction in the market.
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Yen sees the most change to the buy side from institutions while the dollar was lightly sold. There is a divergence between US indices which has been a common story this year. Small caps and blue chips are getting sold while tech and S&P are getting bought up.
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USOIL Daily Chart:
Price action looks rough here, with possible downside momentum picking up if we break through the $67 per barrel mark.
Today's good news about peace negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah has oil prices sliding this morning.
Additionally, with Trump's goal of drilling significant amounts of oil and making USA a major exporter could also drive supply higher, and price lower.
Looking bearish for now!
- Nick
After the announcement of Scott Bessent as Secretary of Treasury on Friday, gold's price dropped like a rock. This pick has somewhat eased concerns over the inflation trend which may help with the Fed decisions on cutting rates and bringing CPI down to the 2% target. Gold is down nearly 3% at the time of writing this and looks like it will try support around the $2,600 level which has served as a major level to break or bounce.
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NASDAQ, SPX and DOW are mixed while RUSSELL and gold are getting bought. The crowd is also getting long USOil despite the amount of oil production happening in the US. This could be a short term trade to the upside as geopolitical tensions increase in Russia-Ukraine.
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Gold is making another attempt at the highs after geopolitical tensions swell in Ukraine/Russia. This has not really affected Bitcoin's price, but it has startled the US markets. If the metal continues to climb, price could come up to the $2,680s and form a head and shoulders pattern on the 1D timeframe. Gold had a year notching better returns than the stock market, but upside seems more limited than other assets such as stocks, bitcoin, dollar (maybe). I would imagine that when tensions fall again, so will the price of gold.
-Frank
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Gold bounced for the second day after a harsh pullback to a strong trend line. The metal may have limited upside as demand for the dollar and stocks stays high. This short term swing could be another setup to the short side after price tested resistance above $2,615. Gold had a good technical bounce off a clear support level, but it might not be enough to bring prices back to all time highs. The EF ranks gold at a -4.
- Frank
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There was another change of 0.4% retail sales growth last month indicating steady rises in consumer spending. This is a good sign because investors don't want to see a surprise increase in spending and at the same time, don't want to see a decline. The economy needs to stay healthy, but not rum rampant and cause another inflationary concern.
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