The Most Important Expected Economic Events And Data USD Today: USD 🇺🇸
✔️ Unemployment Claims 🇺🇸( 2:30PM)
Previous: 222K 💧
Expect: 229K 💧
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About 3 hours before the announcement 🕐🕐( Paris Time )
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EURUSD stays bullish as the DXY falls
On Wednesday, EURUSD gained 0.37% and finished the day just below the 1.09400 resistance level. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the support level at 104.000 and lost 0.48%.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar remained near its lowest level in four months, as comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials increased chances of a rate reduction in September. Investors are fully anticipating a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in September. Also, the probability of another rate reduction in November is 59.5% after Fed officials stated that the U.S. central bank is closer to monetary policy easing, noting progress in bringing inflation closer towards the 2% target. Investors will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision this afternoon. The market expects the regulator won't change the base rate at the meeting, but officials' comments will be crucial in determining the timing of future interest rate reductions.
EURUSD has been moving within a relatively narrow range of 1.09320–1.09400 during Asian and early European trading hours. The market awaits the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision at 12:15 p.m. UTC. Also, two reports at 12:30 p.m. UTC may increase volatility in EURUSD: the U.S. Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. If the data is lower than expected, the pair may move towards 1.10000. Meanwhile, stronger-than-anticipated numbers may bring EURUSD down towards the 1.09000 support level.
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The euro traders expect the ECB meeting this week
On Tuesday, EURUSD moved sideways within the 1.08700–1.09050 range as the U.S. Retail Sales report put significant bearish pressure on the pair.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar (USD) strengthened on Tuesday following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. However, the report couldn't change market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates. U.S. retail sales remained unchanged in June instead of a forecasted 0.3% decline. An increase in sales in all sectors, apart from automobile dealerships, demonstrated the economy's resilience and boosted economic growth prospects for Q2. Other data indicated that import prices remained unchanged in June. All this data gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to reduce interest rates this year. The markets are now sure that the Fed will reduce interest rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at the meeting in September. The probability of another rate reduction in November is currently 64.6%, according to the FedWatch Tool.
Also, the market is waiting for the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting this Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to maintain interest rates unchanged following the 25 basis point reduction in June. Investors will mostly focus on President Christine Lagarde's comments. Her speech could provide more insights into the timing of any further rate reductions.
EURUSD has attempted to rise towards 1.0920 during the Asian and early European trading sessions ahead of the eurozone inflation report release at 9:00 a.m. UTC today. If the data exceeds expectations, it may give a bullish impulse for EURUSD. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected inflation figures could trigger a downward correction in the pair.
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USDCAD moves higher on BOC survey
The Canadian dollar (CAD) lost 0.37% on Monday despite dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and lower-than-expected U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index data.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Speaking at an event at the Economic Club of Washington, Powell said that U.S. inflation readings ‘add somewhat to confidence’ that the pace of price increases is returning towards the Fed 2% target. The comments indicated that a move to cut interest rates may be coming soon. Indeed, the market has now priced in a 100% probability that the central bank will ease its monetary policy in September. Thus, additional dovish comments from the Fed officials are not really fuelling the current bearish trend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Investors may even start to look further into Q4, monitoring markets' expectations for another rate cut in November or December. While fundamental factors exert a downward pressure on the greenback, recent political events have supported the currency. Yesterday, USD rose on beliefs that a failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump would improve his reelection chances.
Meanwhile, USDCAD rose to almost a two-week high after a Bank of Canada (BOC) business survey revealed a decline in inflationary pressures. The data led to increased speculation that the central bank will implement another interest rate cut before the month ends. Indeed, interest rate swaps market data imply an 80% probability that the BOC will deliver a 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting on 24 July.
USDCAD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the key event for the pair is the publication of the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures may reverse the short-term bullish trend in USDCAD, while lower-than-expected results will extend it beyond 1.37000. Additionally, the U.S. Retail Sales report, which will be released simultaneously with the Canadian CPI data, may add extra volatility to the pair
Gold rises on dovish Powell comments
The gold price (XAU) rose on Monday following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman (Fed) Jerome Powell, which strengthened the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday, XAUUSD reached its highest point since 20 May, when gold soared towards a record peak of $2,439. Powell remarked in his speech that U.S. inflation reports from Q2 ‘add somewhat to confidence’ that the rate of price increases is sustainably returning to the Fed's 2% target. The market considered the comments dovish, suggesting that interest rate cuts might be approaching. The possibility of a lower base rate increases the appeal of gold, and the price of the non-yielding asset usually rises.
Meanwhile, a strengthening U.S. dollar (USD) and rising Treasury yields, following the assassination attempt of presidential candidate Donald Trump, may put downward pressure on gold. In other news, India's platinum imports over a four-week period from mid-June surpassed the total volume of imports for all of 2023. According to officials' reports to Reuters, bullion dealers took advantage of a legislation gap and classified alloys with about 90% of gold as platinum to avoid paying higher duties.
XAUUSD continued to rise during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The market is waiting for the U.S. Retail Sales report today at 12:30 p.m. UTC. A lower-than-expected number will positively affect XAUUSD, while a figure exceeding the forecast will likely put a bearish pressure on gold. ‘Spot gold may retest resistance at $2,438 per ounce, a break above which could open the way towards $2,457’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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XBRUSD is falling!
XBRUSD formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, and the price broke the neckline. Momentum has fallen below 100.0, and we can consider selling below MA200.
Trade: Sell XBRUSD on a breakout of 83.40;
🎯 TP: 82.50;
#XBRUSD!
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USDJPY plummets amid increasing chances of a Fed rate cut
The Japanese yen (JPY) gained 0.58% on Friday as a weaker-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Thursday continued to exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar (USD).
👉 Possible effects for traders
Even though Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data came out higher than expected, it didn't change the market expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Thus, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to fall. Currently, the market is pricing in a 92% probability that the Fed will ease its monetary policy in September. Meanwhile, interest rate swaps market data show more than 60 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the Fed and almost 20 bps worth of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) by the end of 2024. The divergence in monetary policy expectations between the two central banks has narrowed following the release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation figures. As a result, USDJPY has dropped to almost a one-month low in just two trading sessions.
At the same time, traders are on alert for any indications of further intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities. Speculation grew that the BOJ may have intervened on Thursday. According to Reuters, the BOJ's daily operations report on Friday suggested the government may have spent between $21–22 billion to strengthen the national currency. 'If they intervened (on Thursday), it makes it likely that they intervened (on Friday). And I think it's a good strategy to keep the market off balance', said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.
USDJPY briefly moved higher during the Asian trading session as safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar sharply increased following a failed assassination attempt on former U.S. president Donald Trump. However, the pair restarted to decline during the early European trading hours. Some political analysts now believe that Trump may win the election by a landslide, which will remove the uncertainty and strengthen the U.S. dollar in the long term. Today, traders should watch the Empire State Manufacturing Index report at 12:30 p.m. UTC and Jerome Powell's speech at 4:00 p.m. UTC. Both events might spur some volatility in USD pairs. However, they are unlikely to change the medium-term bearish trend in USDJPY significantly.
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SL : 177.400
TP 1 : 176.500
TP 2 : 176.000
TP 3 : 177.000
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XBRUSD May Rise!
⚡️ XBRUSD has breached the upper border of a descending channel and is targeting the 85.20 resistance level. The Momentum oscillator crossing the 100-line upwards indicates a potential bullish sentiment.
🔼 Trade: Buy XBRUSD on a breakout above 85.20;
🎯 TP: 87.20.
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AUDUSD continues to rise on strong Australian jobs report
The Australian (AUD) dollar rallied above 0.67500 against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday but failed to hold above this level and lost most of the gains.
👉 Possible effects for traders
AUDUSD has been in a clear bullish trend since mid-April as the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) shifted in favour of AUD. Indeed, while the U.S. macroeconomic data—Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) reports—has been coming out softer-than-expected lately, the Australian reports surprised on the upside. Most importantly, the Australian annual inflation rate remains above the central bank's target and higher than the U.S. price pressure.
Thus, the market doesn't expect the RBA to cut its base rate until spring 2025, contrasting sharply with investors' outlook for the Fed's interest rate path. Currently, interest rate swap market data implies roughly 140 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the Fed until July 2025 but only 30 bps worth of rate cuts by the RBA. Fundamentally, the pressure on AUDUSD remains bullish.
AUDUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading session after the Australian Bureau of Statistics published its latest Employment Report for June. It painted a mixed picture of the Australian labour market, leaving the question of whether interest rates need to rise further. Australian employment figures jumped well beyond expectations, but the jobless rate also increased as more people went looking for work. Later today, the U.S. Jobless Claims report and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reports will be released at 12:30 p.m. UTC and may add more volatility to AUDUSD. If the data indicates persistent weakness in the U.S. economy, the pair will continue to rise, probably above 0.67600. Conversely, stronger-than-expected results may push the pair down towards 0.67000.
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GBP rises following mixed U.K. inflation report
The British pound (GBP) dipped below 1.3000 against the U.S. dollar (USD) following a stronger-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales report but then recovered.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The Pound Sterling (GBP) fell sharply below the key psychological level of 1.30000 during Tuesday's New York trading session. The GBPUSD pair declined following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales report for June. Monthly sales remained flat, matching expectations, but were revised upwards from 0.3% in May. Retail sales numbers, excluding automobiles, increased by 0.4% in Juna and surpassed estimates of 0.1%. The Retail Sales Control Group, closely linked to the consumer spending component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 0.9%, up from 0.4%. This data supported the U.S. dollar, although it didn't significantly impact the outlook on inflation and the U.S. interest rate path. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the greenback's value against six major currencies, rebounded strongly from the key support level of around 104.200.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets anticipate a near 100% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs in September. This expectation keeps U.S. Treasury bond yields near a multi-month low, likely capping USD gains. Consequently, the expectation of a more dovish U.S. monetary policy supports a near-term positive outlook for GBPUSD.
During the early European trading sessions, GBPUSD rose following the release of the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which presented mixed figures. Today, the focus will shift to the U.S. Building Permits report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. If the figures exceed expectations, it could adversely affect GBPUSD, possibly driving the pair below 1.29600. Conversely, lower-than-expected data could sustain the current short-term bullish trend in GBPUSD.
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Sl :2465
Tp1 :2472.5
Tp2 :2475
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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD retested the support level of 62,500.00
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 62,900.00.
Set your stop loss at 62,200.00 below the previous low ($7.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 63,900.00 ($10.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.43.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
EURUSD is moving sideways, awaiting new data
EURUSD declined by 0.12% on Monday, reaching the resistance level of 1.09200, but closed the day below 1.09000 following Jerome Powell's speech.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar (USD) has continued to move near its five-week low today as comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell increased the possibility of a rate cut in September. Yesterday, he said three U.S. inflation indicators released in Q2 had ‘added some credibility’ to the view that inflation was returning towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Powell added, ‘We have seen three positive readings, which, when averaged, represent a fairly positive situation’. The comments strengthened the expectation of a U.S. rate cut in September, with chances of a rate reduction standing at 100%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Despite the dovish inclination, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains data-driven. The central bank had previously tried to adopt a dovish policy stance too early at the end of 2022, resulting in a rise in inflation again in Q1, according to Charu Chanana, head of the currency strategy at Saxo Bank. Markets may have to wait longer to be sure about a September interest rate cut. Thus, the market will closely watch any upcoming U.S. economic data and employment figures to understand the Fed's monetary policy path.
EURUSD has been mowing sideways, just below the resistance level of 1.09000. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be released today at 9:00 a.m. UTC. This index represents the relative six-month economic outlook for the eurozone. A reading above zero indicates optimism, while a figure below zero indicates pessimism, making it a leading indicator of the region's economic health. The index is compiled from a survey of approximately 350 German institutional investors and analysts. If the data exceeds expectations, the euro may gain a bullish impulse. A lower-than-expected number will likely put downward pressure on the currency pair. Also, the release of the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. may affect the EURUSD exchange rate.
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Sl :2430.5
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EURUSD Forecast!
⚡️ In the Daily timeframe, EURUSD broke the global trend line after volatility in an upward movement and overcame the critical area at 1.0900. In this case, after the US CPI release, the beginning of a long-term bullish trend is possible.
Trade: Buy EURUSD on a breakout and consolidation above 1.0920;
TP1: 1.1000;
TP2: 1.1100;
The euro slips after an assault on Donald Trump
EURUSD rose by 0.35% on Friday, reaching the resistance level of 1.09000 and closing the trading day slightly above it, following the release of U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. producer prices rose by 2.6% year-over-year in June 2024, marking the highest increase since March 2023. The PPI numbers accelerated from the previously reported 2.4% in May, which was also higher than the forecast of 2.3%. Producer prices increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, significantly exceeding estimates of 0.1%. Still, the euro managed to recover from the initial correction that started after the report was released and reached 1.09100. Based on the Fed funds futures data from the CME Group, there is a 92.4% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease monetary policy at its September meeting. Economists also anticipate a soon rate reduction from the U.S. central bank. However, the market's uncertainty around inflation has increased. If inflation spikes unexpectedly, it could significantly impact asset prices and the outlook for the euro.
The shock over the assassination attempt of former U.S. President Donald Trump has been driving markets on this Monday. Traders' initial reaction has been to purchase the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin and sell longer-term U.S. Treasuries, leading to a 10-year Treasury bond price decline. The sell-off happened due to the expectation that Donald Trump's economic policies could accelerate inflation and increase debt levels. Today, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, will give a speech. However, this week's most important event is the upcoming ECB decision on interest rates. The decision is unlikely to surprise the markets, as there is a 95% probability that the interest rate will stay at 3.75%. Thus, more economic data will be crucial in determining the timing of the next interest rate reduction.
On Monday, EURUSD gapped downwards at 1.00870 and has been trading within a range of 1.08850 to 1.08950 throughout the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, Christine Lagarde will give a speech in Brussels that may affect the euro's exchange rate. Traders should also pay attention to the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the speech given by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 4:00 p.m. UTC.