Strong U.S. data and profit-taking fuel gold sell-off
The gold (XAU) price plunged by 1.38% on Thursday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recovered swiftly from the 104.000 level due to better-than-expected U.S. macro statistics.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday’s U.S. macroeconomic reports showed a solid 2.8% annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Q2. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5% in June—the fastest since January 2024—while initial jobless claims remained relatively stable. The better-than-expected data supported the U.S. dollar (USD), damaging gold's appeal even as traders continue to expect an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
Also, traders attribute the decline in XAUUSD to technical profit-taking. ‘There's definitely some profit taking going on, triggered by the weakness in the U.S. equity markets that was more than just a sell-off’, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. ‘We've been on a steep rise in the gold and silver market as of late ... so a combination of long liquidation and profit taking from the recent runs exacerbated the selling pressure’, said David Meger, director of alternative investments and trading at High Ridge Futures. At the same time, weakness emerged in the physical market as well. According to official customs data, China's gold imports through Hong Kong decreased by 18% in June compared to May, as higher gold prices dampened jewellery demand.
XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders await the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data is important as it could clarify when the Fed will cut interest rates. According to Reuters, the market expects a 0.1% monthly core PCE rise and a 2.5% annual increase. Higher-than-expected figures will almost certainly pull DXY above 104.500, negatively affecting all precious metals. Otherwise, the short-term bearish trend in XAUUSD will continue, and the pair may drop towards $2,336. ‘Spot gold may test resistance at $2,382 per ounce, a break above which could open the way towards $2,389–$2,394 range’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
Sell Gold @2373-2377
Sl :2379
Tp1 :2371.5
Tp2 :2369
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US500 Forecast!
#US500 has entered a strong correction phase after a robust uptrend!
⚙️ On the weekly timeframe, the US500 bounced off the 5650 resistance level, coinciding with a 161.8 Fibonacci retracement. The RSI oscillator indicates that the asset is overbought, also demoing a bullish divergence.
Important Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns have formed on the chart, which led to serious corrections in the US500 in previous cycles.
🔽 Trade: Sell US500 on confirmation of the Bearish Engulfing;
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USDCAD, 15-minute timeframe chart
USDCAD retested the resistance level of 1.37010
👉Level explanation
USDCAD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.37010.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.36940.
Set your stop loss at 1.37090 above the previous high ($1.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.36790 ($1.10 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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U.S. Elections: Trump will speak at Bitcoin conference
The world's largest Bitcoin conference started on Thursday, featuring many prominent speakers like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Vivek Ramaswamy. Still, the crypto market eagerly awaits Donald Trump's speech, which is due on Saturday at 6:00 p.m. UTC.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Trump is a Republican presidential candidate, and his opinion on the crypto industry in general and Bitcoin in particular will have a noticeable impact on crypto asset prices. Previously, he stood against the cryptocurrencies, calling them scams. However, his views have changed dramatically over the past few years, and now he seems to favour Bitcoin. According to Forbes, a respected U.S. business magazine, Trump's potential victory in November could positively affect the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin. Bernstein agency analysts led by Gautam Chhugani suggest that the BTCUSD price is closely tied to the likelihood of Trump's victory.
BTCUSD may experience high volatility today and tomorrow. The pair has already grown by more than 2% in anticipation of Trump's speech and may reach the resistance level of $70,000 on Saturday.
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Attention, traders: don't miss the week's most influential event!
Tomorrow at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report. The report contains the latest U.S. consumer spending data and individual prices. This data release will likely affect the exchange rates of all USD pairs as it could impact the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.
Most investors and traders will focus on the core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. According to Reuters, the market expects a 0.1% rise in the monthly core PCE Price Index. Should the figures come out higher than expected, EURUSD and XAUUSD will almost certainly drop. However, lower-than-expected results may push EURUSD and gold prices higher.
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Sell Gold @2375.1-2379.1
Sl :2381.1
Tp1 :2373.6
Tp2 :2371
Enter Slowly-Layer with proper money management
Do not rush your entries
US30 Sell 40400 - 40500
40000
39400
39000
Below 39000 expect huge dump.
SL 40850
#Dow Jones 30 Still crashing.
Careful Everyone, as Stocks are crashing #Gold could follow 🫡
Sell Gold @2418.2-2422.2
Sl :2424.2
Tp1 :2416.7
Tp2 :2414
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Do not rush your entries
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