GBPUSD rose on stronger-than-expected U.K. CPI data
The British pound (GBP) gained 0.18% on Wednesday as it corrected from a five-month low but continued to trade below the important 1.25000 mark.
👉 Possible effects for traders
GBPUSD has been in a downtrend since 8 March as the market lowered the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), while the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BOE) remained relatively unchanged. Recent U.K. macroeconomic data have been somewhat mixed. The Labour Force Survey indicated a sharp decline in employment and a rise in unemployment. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures remained high, prompting investors to scale back their expectations of a rate cut by the BOE. Consequently, the British pound has recently gained some ground.
Nevertheless, BOE officials continue to sound dovish. Andrew Bailey, the BOE Governor, recently stated that British inflation is broadly declining in line with the BOE's forecasts, suggesting that the U.K. is facing fewer inflation risks than the U.S. Therefore, it's crucial to continue monitoring upcoming data reports, as they may determine whether the BOE is preparing to ease its monetary policy this summer.
GBPUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's key focus is on the U.S. macroeconomic statistics and upcoming speeches by Fed officials. Specifically, the Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may trigger above-normal volatility in the market. Lower-than-expected unemployment claims figures could reverse the short-term bullish trend in GBPUSD. Conversely, higher-than-expected results could push GBPUSD higher, towards 1.25000. However, the main event is the U.K. Retail Sales report, due at 6:00 a.m tomorrow.
Gold holds near historical highs as Middle East tensions continue
The gold (XAU) price remains elevated as traders exercise caution due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
👉Possible effects for traders
Israel's air force has reported targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in eastern Lebanon, raising concerns about further tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Additionally, Jordan's Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, warned in a recent interview that Israel's response to Iranian strikes could potentially escalate into a regional war. Amidst these developments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasised Israel's right to self-defence despite international calls for restraint. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined, influenced by subdued U.S. Treasury yields, making gold more affordable for investors holding other currencies.
On Wednesday, the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, stated that U.S. inflation exceeds expectations. She noted that the Fed needs more evidence to ensure it's on the path to achieving a sustainable 2% inflation rate. Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that this year's strong economic data shows limited progress towards the regulator's inflation target, suggesting that the central bank may need more time to achieve it. His remarks hinted at a possible hawkish stance on future monetary policy, meaning the demand for non-yielding assets like gold might decrease if U.S. interest rates remain high.
XAUUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two key events: the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the U.S. Existing Home Sales report at 2:00 p.m. UTC, which could trigger increased volatility in all USD pairs. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims figures and a decline in home sales could indicate a weakening job market and a decrease in buying activity. Weak economic data could potentially increase the chances of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, supporting the gold price. Conversely, lower-than-expected jobless claims numbers and stronger home sales data could indicate a robust labour market, putting downward pressure on XAUUSD. 'Spot gold may retest support at $2,354 per ounce, a break below which could be followed by a drop to $2,332,' said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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USDJPY hits a 34-year high on Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks
The Japanese yen (JPY) lost 0.28% in a rather volatile trading session on Tuesday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Initially, USDJPY dropped below the critical 154.00 level as traders feared a possible intervention by Japanese authorities after Shun'ichi Suzuki, the Japanese finance minister, stated he was 'watching closely' the Forex market and would take a 'thorough response as needed'. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, delivered a hawkish message on Tuesday, boosting the U.S. dollar. Powell noted the lack of further progress in tackling inflation and mentioned that interest rates may need to remain higher for longer. Thus, investors had to reassess their expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
At the same time, the market continues to expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to deliver roughly 25 basis points (bps) of rate hikes in 2024. However, it is unknown when and to what extent the Japanese authorities might intervene to prevent rapid depreciation of the JPY. 'Intervention can only work today to slow or manage the pace of depreciation but cannot turn a trend. And it's actually very costly. The big challenge for a number of these Asian currencies is that as long as U.S. bond yields keep grinding higher, you're not going to get a lot of success because you're fighting a wider yield spread,' said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research, FX, and rates at Societe Generale.
USDJPY was unchanged in the Asian and early European trading sessions. The economic calendar is rather uneventful today, so USDJPY will likely follow established technical trends. However, the upcoming speeches by Fed officials at 9:30 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. UTC might trigger some volatility. The main event for the pair will arrive on Friday when the Statistics Bureau of Japan publishes its national core Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Higher-than-expected figures will almost certainly trigger a strong downward correction in USDJPY, potentially below the important 153.000 level. Conversely, lower-than-expected results will likely push USDJPY higher, increasing the risk of interventions by the Japanese authorities.
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EURUSD corrects upwards, but 1.07000 acts as a strong resistance
On Wednesday, the euro (EUR) gained 0.51% as U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar pulled back from multi-month highs.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday's worse-than-expected U.S. real estate data may have contributed to the decline in the U.S. dollar. However, the primary reason behind the EURUSD's rally was technical buying after the sharp drop in the previous trading sessions. Fundamentally, the pressure on EURUSD remains bearish as investors perceive the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy as more dovish than that of the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to interest rate swap market data, traders are pricing in roughly 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the ECB and only 45 bps of reductions by the Fed in 2024.
Recent hawkish comments by Fed officials have strengthened traders' belief that the Fed isn't ready to start cutting interest rates this summer. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that progress on lowering U.S. inflation may have stalled, and it's unclear whether the base rate is high enough to ensure that it returns to the Fed's 2% target.
EURUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on speeches by Fed officials at 1:15 p.m. and 9:45 p.m. UTC. If they maintain a hawkish stance on U.S. monetary policy, the market may completely price out the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed this summer, and EURUSD could fall. Additionally, traders should focus on the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the Existing Home Sales report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Stronger-than-expected data indicating tightness in the labour market and strong consumer sentiment could bring EURUSD below 1.06600. Conversely, weak U.S. statistics could push EURUSD above 1.07000.
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XAUUSD remains elevated on worries about tensions in the Middle East
The gold (XAU) price moved within $2,364–$2,397 on Tuesday but finished the day essentially unchanged.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The precious metals market is counterbalancing between safe-haven demand and rising expectations of fewer U.S. rate cuts this year. On the one hand, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the uncontrollable expansion of the U.S. national debt increase the metal's appeal as investors rush to buy safe-haven assets. On the other hand, strong U.S. macroeconomic statistics make it more likely that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its base rate higher for longer.
'The market is in pause mode, waiting for the other shoe to drop on this Israeli-Iran confrontation. You will see another rally in gold if the situation escalates,' said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. 'If the Middle East conflict de-escalates, market focus will turn to the Fed. It has become apparent that the Fed is not going to be able to cut rates soon, which is a bearish element for gold and silver markets,' he added. Deutsche Bank now forecasts gold prices to reach $2,400 by the end of the year and $2,600 in December 2025.
XAUUSD was essentially unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The economic calendar is rather uneventful today, so gold will likely follow technical trends. However, the upcoming speeches by Fed officials at 9:30 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. UTC might trigger some volatility. Yesterday, the Fed's Chairman, Jerome Powell, did not provide details on when the regulator may cut interest rates, saying that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer. 'Spot gold may test support at $2,367 per ounce, a break below which could be followed by a drop into a range of $2,345–$2,354,' said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 67,650.00
👉 Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.The pair moved up to the resistance level of 67,650.00.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 66,436.00.
Set your Stop Loss at 68,400.00 above the previous high ($19.35 loss for 0.01 lot) and Take Profit at 66,475.00 ($19.35 profit for 0.01 lot).
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