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PEFINDO rating agency has affirmed its idA- ratings for PT Tridomain Performance Materials Tbk (TDPM)’s maturing Medium-Term Notes (MTN) in 2021. It consists of MTN I/2017 of USD20.0 million that will mature on May 18, 2021, MTN II/2018 of IDR410.0 billion or equivalent to USD27.5 million which will mature on April 27, 2021, and MTN III/2018 of IDR250.0 billion or equivalent to USD16.7 million that mature on July 4, 2021. PEFINDO stated that the Company’s readiness to pay the maturing MTNs is highly depend on the success in obtaining external funding. The Company has subscribed sufficient external fund to fulfill its MTN obligation. Otherwise, the shareholder also commits to support TDPM payment obligation by providing standby shareholder loan of USD37.5 million as the alternative funding. TDPM is one of the major companies in the chemical industry’s downstream sector. Aside from trading, it produces a wide range of products in the specialty resin, plasticizer, and acrylamide segments.
PT Pemodalan Nasional Madani (PNM) has successfully issued Sukuk Mudharabah IV PT Permodalan Nasional Madani (Persero) 2020 Series D totaling to IDR308.0 billion. This MTN has been issued in the form of a 2.9-year paper and will mature on January 19, 2024. Following this issuance, year-to-date, the MTN issuance has reached IDR1.12 trillion, slightly lower than the same period in 2020 of IDR1.15 trillion. Still, we expect that the potential MTN issuance in 2021 is still relatively open on the back of easing market pressure.
Dear Our Clients,
Please find attached our BNIS Short Notes of PT Diagnos Laboratorium Utama Tbk (DGNS) on February 19, 2021 as in the attachment, prepared by our analyst Erlangga Aditya Guntoro.
NOT RATED
2nd Session on JCI 02.18.21
JCI 6,200.308 (-27.420 pts) (-0.440%)
(H 6,281.358) (L 6,200.308)
Value 12.83 T (RG 11.90 T) (NG 929 B)
Volume 18.92 B (RG 16.74 B) (NG 2.17 B)
Foreign Net Buy: 35.332 B
LQ45 940.68 (-5.99) (-0.63%)
USD-IDR: 14,011
WTI Oil ($/bbl): 61.68
Top Value on Stocks:
ANTM @ 2,780 (1.09%)
TINS @ 2,390 (8.14%)
BBRI @ 4,670 (0.86%)
BBCA @ 33,675 (-2.39%)
MDKA @ 2,650 (3.52%)
Top Volume on Stocks:
BABP @ 66 (-1.49%)
VIVA @ 50 (0.00%)
HOKI @ 302 (-6.79%)
PURA @ 108 (-5.26%)
GAMA @ 50 (0.00%)
Top Most Up:
MARI @ 164 (+34.43%)
ABBA @ 86 (+34.38%)
UNIT @ 300 (+25.00%)
PUDP @ 324 (+24.62%)
EDGE @ 31,525 (+19.98%)
Top Most Down:
PLAN @ 134 (-9.46%)
JMAS @ 161 (-6.94%)
CANI @ 350 (-6.91%)
DNAR @ 216 (-6.90%)
DGNS @ 675 (-6.90%)
Net Buy Stocks by Foreign:
BBRI @ 4,708 (278.13 B)
TLKM @ 3,214 (143.78 B)
BTPS @ 3,960 (100.09 B)
ANTM @ 2,756 (85.09 B)
MDKA @ 2,654 (80.13 B)
Net Sell Stocks by Foreign:
BBCA @ 33,967 (146.60 B)
ASII @ 5,794 (82.89 B)
BMRI @ 6,295 (68.14 B)
BBNI @ 6,068 (43.94 B)
ICBP @ 8,822 (36.22 B)
Net Foreign Buy (Weekly):
BBRI @ 4,670 (384.8 B)
TLKM @ 3,180 (58.2 B)
BTPS @ 3,970 (57.3 B)
UNVR @ 6,975 (34.3 B)
BBNI @ 6,025 (23.6 B)
Net Foreign Sell (Weekly):
ASII @ 5,725 (759.4 B)
BMRI @ 6,250 (224.3 B)
ICBP @ 8,750 (120.2 B)
BBCA @ 33,675 (117.0 B)
TBIG @ 2,130 (103.0 B)
-BNIS-
PEFINDO rating agency has affirmed the rating of idAA- for PT Surya Artha Nusantara Finance (SANF) and the company’s outstanding Shelf Registration Bond II. The outlook for the corporate credit rating is stable. According to PEFINDO, the rating reflects SANF’s strong support from PT Astra International Tbk (ASII), strong market position supported by synergy with affiliated companies, and strong capitalization indicators. The rating is constrained by its exposure to commodity-related sectors, tight competition in non-core businesses, and moderate profitability profile. SANF is a financing company majoring in heavy equipment leasing for the Komatsu brand. As of December 31, 2020, the company’s shareholders were PT Sedaya Multi Investama (60%, ultimately owned by ASII), Marubeni (35%), and PT Marubeni Indonesia (5%, ultimately owned by Marubeni).
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Dear Our Clients,
Please find attached our BNIS Short Notes of PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) on February 18, 2021 as in the attachment, prepared by our analyst Posmarito Pakpahan.
Rec. : B U Y
TP : IDR 3,100
2nd Session on JCI 02.17.21
JCI 6,227.728 (-64.668 pts) (-1.028%)
(H 6,314.555) (L 6,209.315)
Value 13.12 T (RG 12.78 T) (NG 338 B)
Volume 17.34 B (RG 16.99 B) (NG 354 M)
Foreign Net Sell: 103.150 B
LQ45 946.67 (-13.22) (-1.38%)
USD-IDR: 13,967
WTI Oil ($/bbl): 60.40
Top Value on Stocks:
ANTM @ 2,750 (-4.48%)
TINS @ 2,210 (-5.15%)
BBCA @ 34,500 (-0.58%)
BBRI @ 4,630 (-0.86%)
BMRI @ 6,350 (-1.93%)
Top Volume on Stocks:
FREN @ 64 (-3.63%)
BEKS @ 88 (4.76%)
KPIG @ 199 (8.15%)
ELSA @ 398 (3.11%)
PURA @ 114 (2.70%)
Top Most Up:
INPC @ 108 (+35.00%)
BGTG @ 108 (+35.00%)
BVIC @ 170 (+34.92%)
BABP @ 67 (+34.00%)
DNAR @ 232 (+28.89%)
Top Most Down:
PLAN @ 148 (-9.76%)
FILM @ 320 (-6.98%)
BOLT @ 735 (-6.96%)
ITIC @ 675 (-6.90%)
CASA @ 432 (-6.90%)
Net Buy Stocks by Foreign:
BBRI @ 4,667 (108.57 B)
ANTM @ 2,799 (101.66 B)
BTPS @ 3,764 (30.47 B)
UNTR @ 22,877 (29.08 B)
BBTN @ 1,899 (24.17 B)
Net Sell Stocks by Foreign:
BBNI @ 6,224 (83.37 B)
BMRI @ 6,379 (75.08 B)
ASII @ 5,830 (61.59 B)
MNCN @ 1,065 (24.24 B)
INKP @ 14,326 (22.66 B)
Net Foreign Buy (Weekly):
BBRI @ 4,630 (526.1 B)
BBNI @ 6,150 (116.4 B)
TLKM @ 3,150 (51.8 B)
UNVR @ 7,000 (38.2 B)
INKP @ 14,125 (29.6 B)
Net Foreign Sell (Weekly):
ASII @ 5,800 (669.7 B)
BMRI @ 6,375 (190.8 B)
BBCA @ 34,425 (171.4 B)
ICBP @ 8,800 (148.4 B)
TBIG @ 2,150 (106.8 B)
-BNIS-
PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk. offers a coupon up to 9.75% for the issuance of Shelf Registration Bond I Wijaya Karya Phase II 2021 amounting to IDR2.50 trillion and Shelf Registration Sukuk Mudharabah I Wijaya Karya Phase II 2021 totaling to IDR500.0 billion. This bond and sukuk will be issued in the form of 3-year, 5-year, and 7-year papers. This issuance is a part of Shelf Registration Bond I and Shelf Registration Sukuk Mudharabah I with a total issuance target of IDR4.0 trillion and IDR1.0 trillion, respectively. PEFINDO rating agency has assigned the rating of idA for the bond and idA(sy) for the sukuk. The public offering period will be held on February 25 - 26, 2021, while the electronic distribution and IDX listing will be conducted on February 3 and 4, 2021.
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BNIS Daily Technical Analysis of February 19, 2021
Peluang Penurunan Terbatas Rawan Rebound Dari Candle Inverted Hammer & Di Atas 6.151 Gap.
IHSG menunjukkan momentum bullish, didukung Stochastic bullish, candle invertes hammer, MACD netral. Fase Akumulasi & Trend bullish selama di atas 6.151 gap, trend Volume menurun, penutupan di bawah 6.242 (5 Day MA). Jika closed di bawah 6.151, IHSG berpeluang menuju target 6.090/6.018/5 954. Jika di tutup di atas 6.151 gap berpeluang menuju 6.228/6.282/6.324/6.410.
Trend Jangka Pendek: BULLISH (selama di atas 6.154).
Trend Jangka Menengah: BULLISH (Selama di atas 5.856).
Resist: 6.222/6.242/6.274/6.308. Support: 6.178/6.151/6.122/6.087 Perkiraan: 6.150-6.250.
BBCA,TINS,SIDO,ASRI,AKRA,MAPI
Analyst : Andri Zakarias Siregar
BNIS Fixed Income Daily Report of February 19, 2021.
Bond Market Review (Thu, 2/18)
Indonesia’s local currency bond yield movements were mixed yesterday, in which the short-end yield fell by average of 5 bps, while the belly and long-end yields rose 1 – 5 bps. The 10-year Government bond yield climbed 5 bps to 6.51%. Meanwhile, the USD-denominated bond yields declined yesterday, in which INDON-26, INDON-31, and INDON-51 yields were closed at 1.30% (-1 bps), 2.13% (+3 bps), and 3.07% (-1 bps), respectively. The IDR weakened slightly to IDR14,025/USD yesterday, compared to Wednesday’s closing level of IDR14,020/USD.
The outright trading volume of Government securities was recorded at IDR27.6 trillion yesterday, declining from Wednesday’s trading volume of IDR41.0 trillion, yet, remained higher than the year-to-date average daily trading volume of IDR22.9 trillion. FR0087 and FR0086 were the two most actively-traded series in the secondary market, with the trading volume of IDR4.7 trillion and IDR2.5 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, the outright trading volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR1.8 trillion yesterday.
Bond Market Preview (Fri, 2/19)
The likelihood of further increase on Indonesia’s local currency bond yield is expected to be more limited along with a lower benchmark interest rate. The US initial jobless claims came in at 861k last week, higher than consensus expectation of 765k. On the flip side, the US building permits increased to 1.88 million in January, from the previous month’s level of 1.79 million. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was recorded at 23.1 in February 2021, higher than consensus expectation of 20.0, still, it was lower than the previous month’s figure of 26.5. The mixed US economic data dragged the US stock market down last night (Dow Jones -0.38%; S&P 500 -0.44%; Nasdaq -0.72%). Meanwhile, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields were relatively unchanged at 0.11% and 1.29%. Increasing external pressure may curb the possibility of declining Indonesia’s bond yields, both local currency and USD denominated bonds. However, on the flip side, the likelihood of increasing bond yield may also be limited amid the Bank Indonesia’s action to cut its benchmark interest rate, 7DRRR, by 25 bps to 3.50% yesterday. Additionally, as the US economic data were still weaker than the pre-pandemic level, the US Central Bank may also maintain its benchmark interest rate at the low level for the foreseeable future, hence, it may also keep the global bond yields at the low level, including Indonesia’s bond yields.
As Indonesia’s bond yields are expected to move in a narrow range, then, a short-term trading strategy may remain attractive to be adopted by market participants. The government bonds such as FR0070, FR0086, FR0064, FR0071, FR0078, FR0082, FR0087, FR0073, FR0074, FR0068, FR0075, FR0079, and FR0083 may be attractive for trading purposes.
Indonesia Bond Market News
PEFINDO rating agency has affirmed the rating of idAA for Shelf Registration Bond II Phase IV 2018. This IDR1.5 trillion bond will mature on April 15, 2021. The Bank’s readiness to pay the maturing bond is supported by its placement in the central bank amounting to IDR4.1 trillion as of November 30, 2020. As of September 30, 2020, PT Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN) shareholders were PT Panin Financial Tbk (46.04%), Votraint No. 1103 PTY Ltd (ultimately owned by ANZ, 38.82%), and the public (15.14%).
BNIS Daily Report of February 19, 2021
RESEARCH REPORT
DGNS: New Market Entrant in the Medical Laboratory
What is new?
Since its IPO in January, Diagnos Laboratorium Utama’s (DGNS) share price has risen 157.41%. By weighing its prospectus data, we give the RS Bunda Group’s subsidiary a brief look-in to the company, PRDA comparison, and financials.
Key Highlights:
• Financials: Brief assessment and FY21 targets
• Raised funds, and utilization plan
• DGNS vs. PRDA
• Risk factors, PER & PBV comparison
Analyst: Erlangga Aditya Guntoro
1st Session on JCI 02.18.21
JCI 6,249.584 (+21.856 pts) (+0.351%)
(H 6,281.358) (L 6,220.705)
Value 6.55 T (RG 6.44 T) (NG 109.54 B)
Volume 10.76 B (RG 10.32 B) (NG 439 M)
Foreign Net Sell: 319.36 B
LQ45 950.13 (+3.46 pts) (+0.37%)
USD-IDR: 14,033
WTI Oil ($/bbl): 61.65
Top Value on Stocks:
ANTM @ 2,740 (-0.36%)
BBRI @ 4,720 (1.94%)
TINS @ 2,270 (2.71%)
TLKM @ 3,220 (2.22%)
MDKA @ 2,660 (3.91%)
Top Volume on Stocks:
BABP @ 68 (1.49%)
HOKI @ 302 (-6.79%)
MARI @ 160 (31.15%)
BGTG @ 115 (6.48%)
INPC @ 119 (10.19%)
Top Most Up:
MARI @ 160 (31.15%)
ABBA @ 81 (26.56%)
UNIT @ 300 (25.00%)
PUDP @ 324 (24.62%)
BVIC @ 208 (22.35%)
Top Most Down:
PLAN @ 134 (-9.46%)
PURI @ 356 (-6.81%)
HOKI @ 302 (-6.79%)
YPAS @ 550 (-6.78%)
VICO @ 83 (-6.74%)
Net Buy Stocks by Foreign:
BBRI @ 4,720 (213.0 B)
TLKM @ 3,220 (104.3 B)
BTPS @ 3,990 (50.1 B)
UNTR @ 23,225 (15.1 B)
TBIG @ 2,140 (13.0 B)
Net Sell Stocks by Foreign:
BBCA @ 34,075 (37.9 B)
ASII @ 5,800 (32.7 B)
BMRI @ 6,325 (29.9 B)
BBNI @ 6,100 (24.1 B)
ICBP @ 8,825 (9.9 B)
Net Foreign Buy (Weekly):
BBRI @ 4,720 (384.8 B)
TLKM @ 3,220 (58.2 B)
BTPS @ 3,990 (57.3 B)
UNVR @ 7,025 (34.3 B)
BBNI @ 6,100 (23.6 B)
Net Foreign Sell (Weekly):
ASII @ 5,800 (759.4 B)
BMRI @ 6,325 (224.3 B)
ICBP @ 8,825 (120.2 B)
BBCA @ 34,075 (117.0 B)
TBIG @ 2,140 (103.0 B)
-BNIS-
BNIS Daily Technical Analysis of February 18, 2021
Peluang Rebound Terbatas Jelang Keputusan Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia Dari Candle Bearish Outside Bar & Below 5Day MA.
IHSG menunjukkan momentum bullish, didukung Stochastic netral, candle bearish outside bar, MACD netral. Fase Akumulasi & trend bullish, selama di atas 6.151 gap, trend Volume menurun, penutupan di bawah 6.242 (5 Day MA). Jika closed di bawah 6.151, IHSG berpeluang menuju target 6.090/6.018/5 954. Jika di tutup di atas 6.151 gap berpeluang menuju 6.228/6.282/6.324/6.410.
Trend Jangka Pendek: BULLISH (selama di atas 6.154).
Trend Jangka Menengah: BULLISH (Selama di atas 5.853).
Resist: 6.242/6.274/6.308/6.352. Support: 6.198/6.151/6.122/6.087. Perkiraan: 6.170-6.270.
TLKM,UNVR,ACES,WSKT,SMRA,MDKA
Analyst : Andri Zakarias Siregar
BNIS Fixed Income Daily Report of February 18, 2021.
Bond Market Review (Wed, 2/17)
Indonesia’s local currency bond prices declined yesterday. The Government bond yields surged 5 - 20 bps along the curve, in which, the 10-year Government bond yield jumped to 6.46%. In line with the IDR-denominated bonds, the USD-denominated bond yields also climbed yesterday, in which INDON-31 and INDON-51 yields were closed at 2.16% (+8 bps) and 3.08% (+3 bps), respectively. The IDR weakened to IDR14,020/USD yesterday, compared to Tuesday’s closing level of IDR13,930/USD.
The outright trading volume of Government securities was recorded at IDR41.0 trillion yesterday, increasing from Tuesday’s trading volume of IDR27,9 trillion, and also higher than the year-to-date average daily trading volume of IDR22.7 trillion. FR0087 and FR0086 were the two most actively-traded series in the secondary market, with the trading volume of IDR7.3 trillion and IDR5.3 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, the outright trading volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR2.5 trillion yesterday.
Bond Market Preview (Thu, 2/18)
The pressure of increasing Indonesia’s bond yield is expected to ease along with the declining US Treasury yields. The US Government bond yields fell from the recent high amid a dovish signal from the US Central Bank on its FOMC minutes meeting which was released last night. The Federal Reserve signaled that easy monetary policy will be in place for longer as the economy is nowhere close to pre-pandemic levels. That meant The Fed will hold benchmark interest rates near zero and maintain the minimum USD120 billion of asset purchases each month. The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields fell to 1.29% (-3 bps) and 2.05% (-4 bps), respectively, last night. Meanwhile, the US stocks were mixed, where the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were closed +0.29%, -0.03%, and -0.58%, respectively. On the economic data front, the US retail sales grew 5.3% MoM in January, higher than consensus expectation of 1.1% MoM. Easing pressure of the higher US Treasury yields may curb the potential of further increase on Indonesia’s bond yields, both local currency and USD denominated bonds. Given the 7DRRR at 3.75%, IDR at 14,020/USD, CDS at 68 bps, and the 10-year US Treasury at 1.29%, our yield model shows that the fair yield for the 10-year IDR-denominated Government bond is at 6.26%. Thus, a room for declining yield is still relatively open from the current level. The likelihood of declining yields is also open along with the potential 7DRRR cut by Bank Indonesia. According to a Bloomberg survey, 22 out of 29 economists expect Bank Indonesia to cut its benchmark rate to 3.50% at today’s Board meeting, while the remainder expect Bank Indonesia to maintain its benchmark rate at 3.75%.
Given the potential easing market pressure, then, the Government bonds such as FR0070, FR0086, FR0071, FR0078, FR0087, FR0073, FR0054, and FR0074 may be attractive for investors.
Indonesia Bond Market News
PEFINDO rating agency has affirmed the rating of idA for PT indomobil Finance Indonesia (Indomobil Finance) and the company’s Shelf Registration Bond III 2017 and Shelf Registration Bond II 2015. The outlook for the corporate rating is stable. The Company’s readiness to pay its maturing Shelf Registration Bond III Phase III 2018 Series B of IDR430 billion due on May 18, 2021 will be supported by cash and cash equivalent of IDR891.3 billion, monthly collection of IDR528 billion and unused credit facility of IDR2.9 trillion as of December 2020. According to PEFINDO, the corporate rating reflects Indomobil Finance’s strong business synergy with PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk, strong asset-liability management profile, and well-diversified business portfolio. However, the rating is still constrained by its moderate quality indicators and moderate profitability measures.
BNIS Daily Report of February 18, 2021
RESEARCH REPORT
EXCL: Long-term Story Remains Intact
What is New?
XL posted a sound FY20 with revenue and EBITDA coming in-line with our and market expectation. However, we lower our earnings estimates for FY21F/22F due to the subdued consumer purchasing power outlook.
Key Highlights:
• 4Q20 net loss was due to the acceleration of depreciation on 3G network equipment.
• A weak q-q revenue growth, largely driven by Covid-19 impact, Nonetheless, XL reported sound operational data.
• Given challenging outlook in 1H21, we lower our earnings estimates and TP to IDR: 3,100.
Analyst: Posmarito Pakpahan (posmarito.pakpahan@bnisekuritas.co.id)
COMPANY/INDUSTRY UPDATE
• PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) - Sales Volume in January 2021. BUY. Analyst: Maxi Liesyaputra.
• PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) Buys Fritolay's shares for Rp494bn. BUY. Analyst: William Siregar.
1st Session on JCI 02.17.21
JCI 6,224.018 (-68.378 pts) (-1.087%)
(H 6,314.555) (L 6,218.501)
Value 7.92 T (RG 7.82 T) (NG 107.14 B)
Volume 12.25 B (RG 12.22 B) (NG 0.342 M)
Foreign Net Sell: 114.78 B
LQ45 947.31 (-12.58 pts) (-1.31%)
USD-IDR: 13,994
WTI Oil ($/bbl): 60.04
Top Value on Stocks:
ANTM @ 2,750 (-4.18%)
TINS @ 2,200 (-5.58%)
BBRI @ 4,640 (-0.64%)
ELSA @ 394 (2.07%)
BBCA @ 34,325 (-1.08%)
Top Volume on Stocks:
FREN @ 64 (-3.03%)
BEKS @ 87 (3.57%)
KPIG @ 176 (-4.35%)
ELSA @ 394 (2.07%)
BABP @ 60 (20.00%)
Top Most Up:
BGTG @ 108 (35.00%)
INPC @ 108 (35.00%)
BVIC @ 170 (34.92%)
BKSW @ 135 (32.35%)
BBYB @ 520 (25.00%)
Top Most Down:
FILM @ 320 (-6.98%)
ITIC @ 675 (-6.90%)
SSTM @ 540 (-6.90%)
PURI @ 382 (-6.83%)
ICON @ 82 (-6.82%)
Net Buy Stocks by Foreign:
BBRI @ 4,640 (94.5 B)
TLKM @ 3,200 (32.8 B)
UNTR @ 22,950 (7.3 B)
BTPS @ 3,770 (6.9 B)
ACES @ 1,600 (6.3 B)
Net Sell Stocks by Foreign:
BMRI @ 6,350 (40.6 B)
BBNI @ 6,175 (36.8 B)
ASII @ 5,800 (23.0 B)
INKP @ 14,225 (17.1 B)
BBCA @ 34,325 (14.4 B)
Net Foreign Buy (Weekly):
BBRI @ 4,640 (526.1 B)
BBNI @ 6,175 (116.4 B)
TLKM @ 3,200 (51.8 B)
UNVR @ 6,975 (38.2 B)
INKP @ 14,225 (29.6 B)
Net Foreign Sell (Weekly):
ASII @ 5,800 (669.7 B)
BMRI @ 6,350 (190.8 B)
BBCA @ 34,325 (171.4 B)
ICBP @ 8,850 (148.4 B)
TBIG @ 2,120 (106.8 B)
-BNIS-
BNIS Daily Technical Analysis of February 17, 2021
Peluang Kenaikan Kian Terbatas Rawan Profit Taking Dari Candle Doji & Kondisi Overbought.
IHSG menunjukkan momentum bullish, didukung Stochastic overbought, candle doji, MACD netral. Fase Akumulasi & trend bullish, selama di atas 6.151 gap, trend Volume menurun, penutupan di atas 6.233 (5 Day MA). Jika closed di bawah 6.151, IHSG berpeluang menuju target 6.090/6.018/5 954. Jika di tutup di atas 6.151 gap berpeluang menuju 6.228/6.282/6.324/6.410.
Trend Jangka Pendek: BULLISH (selama di atas 6.154).
Trend Jangka Menengah: BULLISH (Selama di atas 5.853).
Resist: 6.308/6.322/6.360/6.398. Support: 6.282/6.233/6.194/6.151. Perkiraan: 6.250-6.330.
BBNI,ANTM,IRRA,MEDC,TLKM,MIKA
Analyst : Andri Zakarias Siregar
BNIS Fixed Income Daily Report of February 17, 2021.
Bond Market Review (Tue, 2/16)
Indonesia’s local currency bond prices moved sideways in a narrow range yesterday. The government bond yield movements were mixed ranging between 1 - 6 bps along the curve, in which, the 10-year Government bond yield closed at 6.22%, relatively unchanged from the previous day’s position%. Meanwhile, the USD-denominated bond yields surged yesterday, in which INDON-31 and INDON-51 yields were closed at 2.08% (+11 bps) and 3.05% (+7 bps), respectively. The IDR weakened slightly to IDR13,930/USD yesterday, compared to Monday’s closing level of IDR13,910/USD.
The outright trading volume of Government securities was recorded at IDR27.9 trillion yesterday, increasing from Monday’s trading volume of IDR21,9 trillion, and also higher than the year-to-date average daily trading volume of IDR22.1 trillion. FR0086 and FR0087 were the two most actively-traded series in the secondary market, with the trading volume of IDR6.2 trillion and IDR5.1 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, the outright trading volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR678.4 billion yesterday.
Bond Market Preview (Wed, 2/17)
Indonesia’s local currency bond yields are expected to continue its sideways trend in the near term. Global market participants continued to watch for progress on the US government’s proposed USD1.9 trillion stimulus package in Congress, as well as the coronavirus vaccine rollout globally. On the economic data front, the Euro zone GDP fell less than expected in 4Q20, in which the economy fell 0.6% QoQ, while previous consensus estimates had suggested a 0.7% contraction. The US stock market were mixed last night (Dow Jones +0.20%; S&P 500 -0.06%; Nasdaq -0.34%), while, on the flip side, the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields jumped to 1.31% (+10 bps) and 2.09% (+8 bps). Increasing US Government bond yield was underpinned by higher investors’ optimism on the US economic recovery going forward. A lack of fresh catalyst from the global market may curb the yield movement in Indonesia’s local currency bonds in the near term. The sideways yield trend may also continue amid the less aggressive stance from investors, which can be spotted from yesterday’s bond auction. Total investor’s bids on yesterday’s bond auction only reached IDR60.85 trillion, lower than the previous bond auction of IDR83.79 trillion. Meanwhile, the likelihood of further increase on Indonesia’s USD-denominated bond yields is still relatively open in the near term along with increasing the US Treasury yields last night.
Given the potential sideways market movement in Indonesia’s local currency bonds, then, a short-term trading strategy may remain attractive to be adopted by market participants. The Government bonds such as FR0070, FR0077, FR0086, FR0071, FR0078, FR0087, FR0074, FR0088, FR0075, and FR0083 may be attractive for trading purposes.
Indonesia Bond Market News
Indonesia Government issued IDR30.0 trillion of bonds through yesterday’s bond auction. Total investors’ bids on yesterday’s auction were recorded at IDR60.85 trillion, declining from the previous bond auction of IDR83.79 trillion, and also lower than the average investor’s bids in the first three bond auctions in 2021 of IDR78.75 trillion. Investors’ appetite on the belly series was stronger, in which total bids for FR0086 and FR0087 series reached IDR15.93 trillion and IDR15.06 trillion. Given a more limited demand, the Government only issued IDR30.0 trillion of bonds, lower than its indicative target of IDR35.0 trillion. Following yesterday’s bond auction, year-to-date, the Government has successfully issued IDR259.63 trillion of securities.