Almost 30 pitches for Imanaga but NRFI comes through โ
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
#KOLDINTEL
JULY 10 2024
1๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | nationals +1.5 | -125 | TO WIN 0.4 U
2๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | rangers U 9.5 | -125 | TO WIN 0.4 U
/channel/+_UoKO4YQAaowOTli
๐ค Highest public concentrations...
๐ WNBA: Indiana - Las Vegas/Seattle OVER
โพ๏ธ MLB: NY Yankees - NYY/TB OVER
โ ๏ธThese are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.โ ๏ธ
Phillies, Red Sox, Brewers... Cappers are squares today again! Last time it didn't well. Let's see how it goes today ๐ค
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
MLB POD plus money fades: 5-0ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
MLB POD minus money fades: 0-4
๐ Euro 2024
๐ช๐ธ Spain vs France ๐ซ๐ท
1 UNIT: First half DRAW (ODDS: 1.95)
1 UNIT: Full game DRAW (ODDS: 2.90)
SOCCER TIME: ๐ช๐ธ vs ๐ซ๐ท
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
Here's one way to approach sports betting that some of you may not have thought about...
Let's think about who we're trying to beat. Is it the books?
In essence, oddsmakers' task is to set the right odds and earn on the margin (because obviously there will be people betting on opposite outcomes of each game). Our task is to find the oddsmaker's mistakes and to turn the margin in our favor - it will be our income.
It is impossible to earn more in theory, no matter how you look at it. Only with a large volume of bets - the more positive value bets we make the more profit we get (+EV or positive expected value bets have value at the current price and are expected to generate a long-term profit when used for wagering). It is not easy and requires full dedication to the work and few people do it.
Most people trust either cappers or their own gut. Hence the question, are we really competing with bookmakers? Are we not playing games with our mind, deceiving it with false hopes of "get rich quick" through betting? And getting a low blow most of the times?
Well, many people still do the same, and I've been doing it for years until I've finally realized there's no way you can get rich quick in sports betting. When I was saving some money for a BIG bet I would usually win this one bet, but lose it all in the next few bets... because again psychology kicks in โ humans are greedy and we always want MORE. But greed is the short way to poverty.
So how do you actually avoid all that?
Well, the answer is what you must've heard a hundred times already โ have a clear plan of action, financial and mathematical strategy: don't spam 100 bets a day, stick with a system, set up a bankroll and stick to bankroll management (5% of bankroll is fine if you're doing 1-3 plays a day as long as you're following decent cappers who don't go on 0-10 losing streaks like Sean Perry). Also balls of steel are required โ don't ever get emotional over losses. Bettors who go on tilt are books' favorite clients. And we're all trying to beat books here, right?
Also, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that tailing some cappers that consistently feed their followers -150 bets or betting heavy favorites is necessarily bad โ it's all good as long as we profit, right? Even more so, my job here is to work with what cappers have, I don't come up with my own picks, I'm just trying to find the best approaches to the material while most of the time cappers are square and bet neutral expected value (0EV or a neutral expected value means that angles of this type show no value at the current price and will likely lose vig over the long-term).
I'm not perfect either, but I can say for sure that we are consistently going in a tedious direction and every day we gain experience, which should grow into results step by step. If you see sports betting differently - you are mostly just an action junkie who bets just to bet, to feel the adrenaline rush.
So now who do you think should be outplayed first of all: your mind or oddsmakers?
P.S. This article turned out to be longer than I expected, but I think it's an interesting read, especially for new bettors.
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions
๐ค Highest public concentrations...
โพ๏ธ MLB: Minnesota - Texas/LAA OVER
โ ๏ธThese are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.โ ๏ธ
Cody Covers surprisingly went 16-0 yesterday. I know no one tails his picks nor takes him seriously but that was wild. LawkeItUp proves haters wrong, I don't know why some are hating on him, his picks are good ๐คทโโ๏ธ TylersMindset worked on his mistakes and looks decent this month. Madcapped - another new capper - swept yesterday. Bosh Bets and Bass Picks keep doing a good job.
All in all, things went well after a shitty Saturday.
๐ฅCody Covers โ59.7% ๐งน16-0๐งน
๐ฅ LawkeItUp โ24.9% ๐งน๐งน๐งน๐งน
๐ฅ ๐ TylersMindset โ17.0% ๐งน๐งน๐งน
๐Pickz HUB โ14.9%
Bosh Bets โ13.8%
Bass Picks โ9.8%
Golden Gamblers โ7.1%
๐ Hidden Gem Bets โ6.2%
๐Madcappedโ5.6% ๐งน๐งน๐งน
StoneCold โณ
๐ Sammy โ 0.5%
Pardon My Pick โ 0.6%
The Baseball Lab โ 0.7%
DuckInvestments โ 1.0%
๐ Motor City Locks โ 2.1%
Trust My System โ 2.2%
Pitch Invasion โ 4.2%
MoneyLong โ 6.5%
FiveStar โ 8.2%
๐ Trapper Intelโ 12.4%
Smart Money Sports โ 12.4%
Ghidorah SI โ 17.4%
DropShot โ 20.0%
๐Safe Pickzโ 20.7%
ThePickDon โ 20.7%
VIP4FREE โ 22.6%
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions | ๐ Paid content recaps | ๐ฐ Sign up for paid content | ๐ Spreadsheets
#KOLDINTEL
JULY 7th 2024
1๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | tigers mL | -135 | 2.5 U
It was one of those Saturdays when most cappers fuck up. New cappers top the ranking, but I think it's just the beginning of the interesting part. #trustmysystem has been doing well with MLB. Hard to highlight someone else, hopefully it's temporary.
๐ฅ๐ TylersMindset โ12.1%
๐ฅ ๐ Hidden Gem Bets โ11.2%
๐ฅ ๐Pickz HUB โ11.2%
LawkeItUp โ9.8%
Golden Gamblers โ7.3%
Bass Picks โ5.3%
Bosh Bets โ1.3%
๐ Sammy โ0.6%
StoneCold โณ
The Baseball Lab โ 0.7%
Pardon My Pick โ 1.1%
Pitch Invasion โ 4.2%
MoneyLong โ 6.5%
Smart Money Sports โ 7.0%
Trust My System โ 8.6%
๐ Trapper Intelโ 10.9%
DuckInvestments โ 11.0%
๐Madcappedโ 12.3%
Ghidorah SI โ 12.4%
๐Vinny's Plays โ 12.4%
๐Safe Pickzโ 13.2%
๐ Motor City Locks โ 16.4%
DropShot โ 20.0%
FiveStar โ 20.6%
VIP4FREE โ 22.6%
ThePickDon โ 26.7%
Cody Covers โ 46.3%
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions | ๐ Paid content recaps | ๐ฐ Sign up for paid content | ๐ Spreadsheets
๐ค Highest public concentrations...
๐ CFL: Montreal - CGY/MON UNDER
๐ WNBA: Indiana - NYL/IND OVER
โพ๏ธ MLB: Baltimore - BOS/NYY OVER
โ ๏ธThese are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.โ ๏ธ
Profitable approaches to betting MLB
On the examples of our top 4 cappers/systems at MLB this season
MLB is a bitch and very few cappers are actually good at it. But let's look at what has been profitable so far.
I'll be only covering the cappers & systems I've been tracking thoroughly as it is the only material I can work with. All stats are as of 7/5/24.
1. Betting trends (#MLBTrends)
67-41 | 13.49% ROI | 62% win rate
I started tracking how the very first and last games each MLB game day go for shits and giggles. As of 7/5/24, UNDERS are 52-40 (56.52%) in the first games and 49-47 (51.04%) in the last games this season. FAVORITES are 54-41 (56.84%) in the first games and 53-41 (56.38%) in the last games of the slate. So, knowing that, we can probably somehow profit, right?
Yep. I wait for these trends to get on short losing streaks and try to get a couple wins within a short period of time & doubling down in case of loss (sometimes. sometimes not).
2. Bunch of plays every day (Your Daily Capper, Scuzzlocks)
YDC: 93-62 | 8.55% ROI | 60% win rate (MLB only)
Scuzz: 105-70 | 11.14% ROI | 60% win rate (MLB only)
This approach applies to 90% of cappers. YDC has been the most profitable so far with 7% ROI over 152 plays (+11 units). However, this is all thanks to his 14-0 run. If it wasn't for this winning streak, he wouldn't have been here. But I can't say he was bad - longest losing streak at MLB was 5 losses in a row and the lowest profit mark he ever hit was -5 units.
Scuzz has had more winning streaks of 5-7 wins in a row, but his longest losing streak was 6 losses in a row. Other than that, his MLB has been much smoother and profitable all the time after the first ~20 picks (it took YDC over 100 picks to hit the 14-0 win streak).
3. One play a day (Parlay Paul POTDs)
57-31 | 7.86% ROI | 64.8% win rate (MLB only)
Paul has been doing well with MLB since the very start of the season and we hopped on that train (20-6 in April), but slowed down after that hot month. He ended May on a 6-0 run but overall it was a -1.6. And then there was a 12-0 run in June, although June was just +3.8 units. So, if you're doing just one play day get ready for steep losing and winning streaks.
However, I must say, there are other cappers who do just one play a day and don't have the same results. Maybe the answer lies in the fact the Parlay Paul mostly bets favorites and rarely underdogs on the run line (average odds - -140 / 1,70)
4. Martingale system (#KOLDINTEL)
19-17 | 10.79% ROI | 52.8% win rate (MLB only)
Quite an interesting approach Kold never told me fully about, but the essence is in multiplying the amount you bet by ~2.5x with each loss. He selects various cappers and has his own systems I don't know about but as long as it brings it's good. But if you want to try something like this on your own, you have to have a system that you will stick to - jumping from one team (or capper) to another wouldn't work.
UPD: I started writing this text yesterday when Kold was top 4 but his system lost 3.4 units on the Royals F5 yesterday so he is now top 8 ๐ฌ
To sum up, MLB can be tough as long as you don't have your own system and of course bankroll management which is always crucial in betting. And not all cappers who use the same or like approaches can be successful. I guess it's a matter of time to figure the right ones.
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions
#KOLDINTEL
JULY 5th 2024
1๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | braves mL | -135 | TO WIN 0.4 U
2๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | marlins mL | -135 | TO WIN 0.4 U
/channel/+_UoKO4YQAaowOTli
Padres of course is the "free money" type bet of the day. Many cappers on, but I can't say it's a consensus
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
Cubs / Orioles seems to be the perfect game to bet NRFI, doesn't it? Well, many cappers think so too. Including this 11-0 NRFI capper
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
The top 5 seems to be a good competition โ of course I expect Cody Covers to lose positions over time, but so far Madcapped and TylersMindset are doing great. Soccer cappers didn't do well yesterday.
๐ฅCody Covers โ38.2%
๐ฅ ๐Madcappedโ31.0% ๐งน๐งน๐งน
๐ฅ ๐ TylersMindset โ26.9%
DuckInvestments โ25.3%
Trust My System โ25.2%
LawkeItUp โ19.1%
๐ Motor City Locks โ16.7%
Golden Gamblers โ15.4%
๐Pickz HUB โ9.9%
๐ Hidden Gem Bets โ9.0%
Pardon My Pick โ4.2%
๐ Sammy โ3.5%
The Baseball Lab โ 0.7%
MoneyLong โ 1.5%
StoneCold โ 2.5%
Smart Money Sports โ 5.4%
Bosh Bets โ 6.2%
Bass Picks โ 8.9%
FiveStar โ 9.9%
๐ Trapper Intelโ 13.1%
Pitch Invasion โ 14.2%
Ghidorah SI โ 18.7%
DropShot โ 20.0%
VIP4FREE โ 20.2%
ThePickDon โ 38.9%
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions | ๐ Paid content recaps | ๐ฐ Sign up for paid content | ๐ Spreadsheets
#KOLDINTEL
JULY 9 2024
1๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | phillies -1 | -110 | TO WIN 1 U
2๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | guardians mL | -130 | TO WIN 0.4 U
/channel/+_UoKO4YQAaowOTli
๐ค Highest public concentrations...
๐ WNBA: Minnesota - Minnesota/LA Sparks OVER
โพ๏ธ MLB: Boston - Texas/LA Angels OVER
โ ๏ธThese are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.โ ๏ธ
Stake 2.50u - Win 3.00u
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
Morning! Short slate yesterday, nothing exciting. #duckinvestments apparently swept (guaranteed picks are 6-1 this month). TylersMindset and Madcapped are doing well this month so far too. That's pretty much it.
Waiting on today's soccer plays from Bosh Bets, Pitch Invasion and Moneylong.
๐ฅCody Covers โ41.7%
๐ฅ LawkeItUp โ24.9%
๐ฅ ๐ TylersMindset โ17.0%
DuckInvestments โ21.7% ๐งน6-0๐งน
๐Pickz HUB โ14.9%
๐Madcappedโ13.6%
๐ Hidden Gem Bets โ9.0%
Bosh Bets โ6.3%
Golden Gamblers โ5.6%
๐ Sammy โ4.8%
Pardon My Pick โ 0.6%
The Baseball Lab โ 0.7%
StoneCold โ 2.5%
Pitch Invasion โ 4.2%
Bass Picks โ 6.4%
MoneyLong โ 6.5%
๐ Trapper Intelโ 6.8%
๐ Motor City Locks โ 11.9%
Trust My System โ 13.4%
Ghidorah SI โ 13.7%
Smart Money Sports โ 14.0%
FiveStar โ 15.2%
๐Safe Pickzโ 18.4%
DropShot โ 20.0%
VIP4FREE โ 22.6%
ThePickDon โ 35.7%
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions | ๐ Paid content recaps | ๐ฐ Sign up for paid content | ๐ Spreadsheets
There's not much action today. I wish I could send something like "today's highest cappers concentration is Rangers..." But action is too quiet today.
The only thing I like about Rangers is that #KOLDINTEL has them as a big play. His plays above 1U are 12-8 for + 7.16 units this all-time
More free picks: /channel/betting_intel
P.S. Posting an article soon
#KOLDINTEL
JULY 8th 2024
1๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | rangers mL | -150 | TO WIN 2.5 U
2๏ธโฃ | โพ๏ธ | rockies +1.5 | -130 | TO WIN 0.4 U
#MLBTrends
Red Sox / Yankees UNDER 8.5 (-110) | 1U
๐ค Highest public concentrations...
๐ CFL: B.C. - Hamilton/BC OVER
๐ WNBA: Connecticut - Dallas/Las Vegas OVER
โพ๏ธ MLB: Baltimore - San Francisco/Cleveland OVER
โ ๏ธThese are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.โ ๏ธ
#KOLDINTEL
JULY 6th 2024
1. Bobby witt jr over 3.5 total hits + runs + rbis ( go to player props the combo should be there ) | +100 | to win 1 U
2. Rays mL | -105 | to win 1 U
/channel/+_UoKO4YQAaowOTli
Bosh Bets sweeps again and gets the first place. Yesterday was full of underdogs in the MLB, in such cases Lawke It Up and CapCitySports are feeling fine. Vinny's Plays started ok, tennis cappers are always wanted.
๐ฅ Bosh Bets โ31.3% ๐งน๐งน๐งน
๐ฅ ๐Pickz HUB โ16.2%
๐ฅ Golden Gamblers โ7.3%
๐ TylersMindset โ7.0%
LawkeItUp โ5.5%
๐Vinny's Plays โ5.2%
The Baseball Lab โ4.4%
๐ Hidden Gem Bets โ1.8%
Pitch Invasion โ1.1%
Pardon My Pick โ0.9%
๐ Sammy โ0.6% ๐งน๐งน
StoneCold โณ
Bass Picks โ 1.1%
๐Safe Pickzโ 5.7%
๐Madcappedโ 6.1%
MoneyLong โ 6.5%
๐ Motor City Locks โ 6.7%
Ghidorah SI โ 7.4%
Smart Money Sports โ 10.8%
DuckInvestments โ 11.1%
ThePickDon โ 11.7%
๐ Trapper Intelโ 13.2%
DropShot โ 20.0%
FiveStar โ 20.0%
VIP4FREE โ 22.6%
Cody Covers โ 28.9%
Trust My System โ 30.5%
๐ Free picks | ๐ฌ Main channel | ๐จโ๐ป DM me with any questions | ๐ Paid content recaps | ๐ฐ Sign up for paid content | ๐ Spreadsheets
Posted review of today's cappes' action on the second channel: /channel/betting_intel
ะงะธัะฐัั ะฟะพะปะฝะพัััั…
#MLBTrends
Dodgers ML (-200) | 1U
