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PROFIT SYSTEMS 🔬📊

29 Aug 2024 01:07

MLB PLAY

TOR BLUE JAYS +120 ML FOR GAME

PROFIT SYSTEMS 🔬📊

28 Aug 2024 23:28

Well, I'm a meticulous person. Thought it'd be interesting to get into the essence of streaks in betting. And adjust morale a bit.

I'm a huge proponent of the "80-20 rule" but in betting I interpret it in a slightly different way.

Let's suppose in sports betting 80% of our bets depend on luck and 20% depend on the work we put in. Math is simple here: divide 80% by 2 (win or loss) and you'll get 40% [win rate] — that's the base number or the minimum we'll get by blindly betting any outcomes with all other odds being equal (not including parlays or high risk bets).

It's pretty bold to say 80% of our bets depend on luck, but even the worst cappers or people who don't know a thing about sports betting can't lose all time.

That's when 20% comes into play. So if we put in the remaining 20% effort, we get our win rate somewhere around 60% — I think this is the limit. Even at 56% win rate we are already profitable (of course we bet -110 or better and don't bet juiced lines). 60% win rate is just a dream. Short-term it is achievable, but long-term it's impossible to maintain such efficiency.

I have not seen a single capper with a win rate above 60% over the span of 500+ bets (again, we are talking about more or less even odds (-120 to +100 or 1.83 to 2.00). And you won't see too. Because no one can beat math.

I hope the logic is clear. Let's see on the example of my bets from the premium this month.

Win rate throughout August — 60%. First half of August win rate — 72%. Second half of August win rate — 48%. And at the same time, I honestly worked like a motherfucker all August, you know it. All plays were posted and recapped.

It only means that it is simply temporal distribution of luck. Basically ran out of luck lol.

Remember the age-old example of heads and tails. If you toss a coin 10 times, there may be the same side 10 times. But if you do it 1000 times the results will get close to 50/50.

This is also why I always preach that tailing cappers on continuous winning streaks is not a good idea — they might run out of luck at any moment (happened yesterday with our Pirates ML bet).

This is also why 99% of cappers only show off their short-term stats — to impress fools and get their money.

In an ideal world everyone lives with the idea that they will win every day, but unfortunately the above mentioned theory disproves this. And the worst thing is that the win streak I had at the beginning of the month makes me forget that it is impossible to win every day. So, in such cases remember the "80-20 rule" and heads and tails and maybe it will save someone from a nervous breakdown, disappointments in betting, and of course debts. This is very serious, just remember that the the long run will put everything in its place.

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