Off to a decent start. Vegas Ninja had a slammer if you read the SNF preview. PickzHub is still doing well. TBSB bounced back coming off 2 losses as he usually does. Sean Perry's play lost like expected. I told you all that. If I did not then probably dropped it in the paid - the heat is there. But I have a few angles to look at today for you too:
1. Porter Picks >=5U plays are 24-8 on Mondays
2. PickzHub is good at NFL, especially when he's against most other cappers, and Monday is his best day.
3. Duck Investments is 4-12 in the NFL on Mondays
4. Sean Perry is 2-6 coming off 5 losses; 18-28 on Mondays; 14-22 in the NFL.
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I think the idea of fade ranking is quite realized, as you can see most of the sheet is in red - that's what was expected
Added a couple new cappers:
Pickz Hub - the public's favorite. He had a decent month, but his flamboyant manner with plays of the year every other day and claims like cutting his dick off in case picks lose (he's 0-2 on such picks) leave me no choice but to add him here.
Prof - I hope he will prove me wrong and it was just a bad month for him. His 2U plays have been fire (5-0 in November) and they brought me and the guys from the paid a couple extra units, but his PODs have not been it.
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
And what about yesterday and today.
Yesterday wasn't good or bad, cappers mostly split out their picks, TPD and EP won, AFS, BTBB and LC screwed up. I didn't like any of the NCAAF setups but managed to grab Texas A&M +20.5 in-play.
Today we have a few things to look at:
1. PMP is on a 0-5 run and he's never gone past that mark (3-0 coming off 5 losses); 45-28 in the NFL, 22-14 on Sundays.
2. Sean Perry: 0-4 run, 3-8 coming off 4 losses, 14-21 in the NFL, 19-23 on Sundays. I don't know how he can get a win today if it's going to be an NFL pick.
3. NHL cappers:
Shark: 5-0 on Sundays
Scuzz: 1-6 on Sundays
Lawke it up: 8-16 on Sundays
4. NBA cappers:
Vegas Mira: 20-8 on Sundays
Tommy: 24-14 on Sundays
As always, will have to see the picks before saying anything but these are probably the best spots for today. I definitely don't think either Fivestar, BTBB or YDC will go off on Sunday with their NFL handicapping abilities.
Good luck!
Hey everyone! Let's see how we approach the new month:
1. TPD did a great job bouncing back from a bad October.
2. Fivestar was solid all-month long.
3. BTBB cooled off at the end of the month but remains a top-3 capper.
4. AFS also cooled off a bit but his NBA picks were money.
5. Scuzz's NHL picks is in top-3 in ROI - solid.
6. LC was inconsistent but managed to stay profitable this month.
7. EP was useful since there's a lot of trends on him and they win more than lose but overall he's almost always a breakeven capper.
8. Vegas Mira did not live up to expectations even though he was off a to a good start of the month; expecting him to step up in the NBA.
9. YDC — not expecting anything from him really, he's a long-term losing capper who can get streaky sometimes. His NHL is ok though, we know it.
10. Dan — this guy had like 4 picks last month, we now have a new NHL capper so I'll just replace him.
12. MDB — not impressive, a lot of picks
13. ATC — NFL has been about not overthinking it so betting against public did not bring good results
14. Martingale Mania — I don't know what happened here but he told me he will get back to what has been working. Eventually.
15. Tommy — disasterclass. He's been a solid NBA capper and this was the worst month ever. Should bounce back.
Overall it was a decent month, I managed to earn a few units with the analytics plays. It wasn't much but it's an honest work, eh. I like the new approach to selecting picks — not forcing action and waiting patiently.
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"Cappers Intel + — what the hell is that?"
🤫 Effort
We do a ton of work tracking cappers, delivering picks & assessing action. Basically 24/7 in touch with all of you — we live this. 168 hours a week, $50 (weekly subscription cost) / 168 = 0.3$ per hour. If you value time — you can get it for cheap. The routine is on us.
🤓 Analytics
I don't just crunch numbers but also select the plays I find worth betting. You all know I suck at handicapping but I might be not bad at selecting what cappers have.
Analytics plays is sort of a measurement of success (or unsuccessfulness) of paid content:
November performance: 16-11 | +3 units (average risk: 1 unit flat)
All-time (L19 months) performance: 520-399 | +61.4 units (average risk: 0.91 units flat)
Nothing really stood out among the early games with such a schedule.
Michigan wins outright as a +800 underdog — TMS's Ohio State pick was never close. Up next he's got Bama and something tells me this one will be another L but what do I know lol.
Guess cappers are saving their abilities for the Texas / Texas A&M resumed rivalry.
Let's go through the list one by one
1. Analytics Capper POTD's:
17-9 in November
38-31 in the NCAAF — his only profitable sport.
2. Smart Money Sports 4U plays and above:
There's two of those plays today. 5U plays are hitting way better than 4U plays.
3. Porter Picks 5U plays and above:
Two of those were posted yesterday. Can't say anything.
4. TB Sports Betting:
Bad on weekends (16-22 on Saturdays).
5. Sean Perry:
Generally always bad. 0-3 run. 7-11 coming off 3 losses.
6. Duck Investments:
Heating up at the end of the month: 3-0 run. 13-16 coming off 3 wins. Sucks on Saturdays.
7. Vegas Ninja:
Good on weekends, sucks at NBA.
8. TMS:
Actually he's doing well on Saturdays: 77-58 over the last 14 months.
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
Cappers really like Twolves today. My two cents 👇
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Did I talk about “not overthinking it”? 🙄😂
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There's nothing outstanding in the cappers' action so far — all action is focused on the night game.
Since the money-printing machine in the face of the Lions jammed today, the next most obvious move would be to take the Cowboys.
Cowboys are coming off a very impressive win as a 10-pt underdog against the Commanders. Giants got blown out at home by the Bucs
Give me the Giants with the points
1.74 turkeys to win 3.23 turkeys
P.S. I absolutely suck at handicapping so be warned🤠
This NFL season has been all about not overthinking it... We have three home favorites today.
Home favorites are 71-35 SU and just 52-52-2 ATS this season
🏈 Lions x Bears 🏈
Lions ATS: 9-2 (4-1 ATS at home)
Chicago ATS: 5-4-2 (0-3-1 ATS on the road)
🏈 Cowboys x Giants 🏈
Cowboys: 3-8 ATS (0-5 ATS at home)
Giants ATS: (2-2 ATS on the road)
🏈 Packers x Dolphins 🏈
Packers ATS: 5-6 (3-3 ATS at home)
Dolphins ATS: 5-6 (3-2 ATS on the road)
We have Porter Picks' >=5U plays heating up: 4-1 L5. Others? Not sure. Wednesdays and Thursdays have been good days for cappers — 57% win rate on average. So wouldn't fade anyone rn. Yesterday was quiet so maybe something good pops up today.
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
The perfect guide to finding yourself a capper
There's so many touts selling sports picks these days because people by nature are a) are greedy and want to get rich quick and b) don't think for themselves and would rather give the money to someone else to give them sports picks
The guy from the screenshot above legit told me he hates his job and wants to start betting to get rich. Do you think he will succeed? Well I surely hope he does but I'm also sure he will be a daily sportsbook depositor because it simply doesn't work like that
Grow up people, it's a cruel world we live in
Looks like Ravens and OVER are the most obvious plays for today. And as always cappers have action on all sides of this game:
Cody (12-5 totals; 10-3 ML picks) has OVER and Ravens ML
Duck (3-11) has the OVER too...
And there's a ton of other cappers who have Chargers and unders.
No clear consensus today. So I can't jinx anything today 😭
25/11 Briefing
Hey everyone!
I didn't really expect Sunday to be full of winners. All I wanted was cappers to get on their streaks. LC, TPD did not do it. Only EP lost and is now coming off 2 losses. I will consider EP as the main option for today.
A couple words on the NFL. This season is tough — eye-test: cappers aren't doing even 60% of what they're capable of. I see the reason for such poor results in the fact that NFL is the hardest league to predict. Simple example: last season, 55.5% of all games stayed UNDER the total. This season: 53.5% OVERS.
The NFL's hottest betting trend the last few years has been primetime (Thursday, Monday, and Sunday Night Football games) UNDERs. Going below the point total hit at an 60.2% clip over the last six seasons and it hit in nearly 70% of Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night games in 2023-24.
This season? Primetime OVERS are slightly dominating: 18-17-1 to the OVER. Away favorites have been the most successful angle in the NFL this season so far: 40-29-3 (58%) ATS. Other than that, all other angles aren't hitting above 53%.
So what's the solution?
Well, we can just not bet on the NFL at all — less stress, less losses (less potential winners). There's enough room for betting without NFL. But we're paying cappers — they have to improve. Jumping from one capper to another is also not the smartest decision...
Maybe we (especially me since I'm the one to take all responsibility) just haven't been too smart to realize how silly we were 🤓 Because it feels like this season has been so easy and we were trying to find the traps and there was no traps at all.
Live and learn. Adjust. Be patient. That's how it goes in betting. Anyways, I'm good with not betting the NFL but I'll keep trying to find good stuff.
Bills / 49ers
Still nothing worth making an "analytics" play here in my opinion but let's see what we can get here:
Cappers from the ranking:
TPD has UNDER 44.5. He's our totals guy, he's 42-34 coming off 2 wins. And that's probably it. There's BTBB with 49ers but he is not good with primetime games historically.
Cappers outside the ranking:
There's Vegas Ninja with Bills -4 — he's historically good on weekends (64% win rate) but what's more interesting, he is 13-2 with NFL spreads.
SNF trends:
Favorites are 8-4 ATS
UNDERS are 7-4-1
Not interfering with your thought processes, just highlighting the cappers' action. Good luck with whatever you're betting!
Monthly recap, long-term stats, daily briefing from the paid 👆
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My prehistoric excel sheet shows that Decembers are usually good for most cappers, Vegas Mira and Fivestar might have a good month. What about newer cappers?
December '23:
1. Tommy: +5.5U
2. Fivestar (golden whales): +7.19U
3. TPD (best bets): -1U (might cool off after a good month)
4. EP: break even as usual
5. PMP: +57.2U (he was betting 5U per pick at the time) - expecting him to pick up
6. Porter Picks (>=5U): was cashing nearly everything, +32U
7. Prof Locks: -5.85U - only looking at POWs here
So, I will be paying closer attention to Vegas Mira, Fivestar and PMP this month.
Someone told cappers Texas A&M is going to cover 100%... At least it's how it feels because I've only been seeing A&M spreads today, no Texas plays. Not a cappers consensus — not enough volume on this game. Which is surprising to say the least — such good games and no consensus!
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I won't name a single player from either Georgia State or Coastal Carolina team but I think it is safe to say that Coastal Caro is a winner
Save the date for next year's matchup 🤠
My play today is Coastal Carolina ML +100.
Pretty interesting and consistent trend here: away teams are winning this head to head matchup
P.S. I'm not a capper and I suck at handicapping 🤠
My two cents on the Timberwolves/Clippers game
I really liked the clippers when I saw the point spread in the morning (-5) but since then it has moved to -6
Timberwolves are my favorite team to fade this season — they are just overvalued in 9/10 matchups. They are bad ATS, while Clippers have been covering.
And I feel like this is the “too good to be true” setup when Timberwolves actually step up and play like a contender team.
Not betting anyways
Hey everyone!
As I said yesterday I delivered more picks. The two cappers from the paid content did their job very well:
GL cashed both his plays and is now 24-4 on the season
Prof Locks cashed a 2U play (forgot to forward his pick but mentioned it in the game preview)
The rollover was no good. I warned you I suck at handicapping!
Friday is packed with action and we also have NFL today (note to self: do not overthink it 🤓). I'll try to share something like yesterday.
Good luck!
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
Dolphins / Packers. Mixed action as always.
On the one hand:
Prof Locks POW (Packers -3) (33-15 all-time, 13-5 NFL, 4-0 this month)
On the other hand:
TPD (Dolphins +3.5) (26-15 coming off 3 wins, 15-7 NFL on Thursdays)
AFS (Dolphins +3.5) (12-10 NFL, 19-8 on Thursdays, 22-8 coming off 2 wins)
BTBB (Dolphins +4) (28-10 on Thursdays)
Would've been great if Prof did not drop his POW on Packers. Not playing anything here. My two cents: the setup on Dolphins looks better.
Spontaneous Thanksgiving rollover
Live: Goff under 21.5 completions -135
I liked that prop pre game anyways. Only 4 times in 11 games has Goff made over 21 completions. Detroit has established a comfortable lead, so I'm expecting they will caryy the ball more and burn the clock.
Risking 1 turkey to win 1.74 turkeys
Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate this holiday!
I won't overload you with numbers today, I'll just try to deliver more picks so we all get the sauce for dinner 🦃
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
I was wrong. NFL is easy. Just bet all away favorites:
52-21 (71.2%) SU
41-29-3 (58.6%) ATS
But that didn't help AC who lost another 12U play (Chargers +2.5). Cody Covers had a day though - cashed both Ravens and Over (so did Duck). Fun fact: Cody holds 67.4% win rate on Monday night football picks and if I isolate it to ML / Totals only it's 75% (24-8) since last season.
Anyways, what I can say about free cappers:
TBSB is 22-12 coming off 2 losses
Sean Perry is 13-18 coming of 2 losses
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
They told me to sit in the corner yesterday
Now they tell me I will suffer
You guys crack me up 🤣
But we’re all betting on Monday night football anyways, right?
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Hey everyone!
Expectedly, NFL was a rollercoaster. Probably the hardest league to handicap. I'll drop my opinion on that a bit later. For now I'll just highlight the angels in the free content.
AC lost his big play like most other cappers yesterday. Still sits at 68% win rate this month. 25-19 on Mondays.
TBSB was the perfect read yesterday — Rams +3 was a big L. Nothing today though.
Sean Perry is just Sean Perry. I don't like him and on Mondays you shouldn't like him too — he is 18-27 on Mondays.
Porter Picks (>=5U) might have a good move today; 23-8 on Mondays.
Duck Investments — 3-12 in the NFL on Mondays.
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
By the way, I hope this format is pretty clear. You all know what to do with this intel right?
RIGHT?
👍 — aye aye captain
👎 — just give us the LOcKs already 😭
