Ok maybe Falcons was the move after all. Vegas Ninja is somehow very good with NFL spreads. Bears was never the move though.
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Here's 3 trends for today that I found.
Obviously, Raiders ATS looks ugly af and obviously these trends do not take all their injuries into consideration. But historically Falcons are one of the worst ATS teams: 25-40 L65 as favorite and 26-37 L63 as a road team.
Now about the NHL game. I think this one is worth a bet right away.
NHL has been mostly about UNDERs recently. And public consensus picks (from covers.com) have been wrong 8 times in a row. There once was an 0-8 run during the 2-year span of tracking and it snapped on the 9th play. Overall if you look at the long-term stats, the win rate is about 50% (250-254). Sundays see slightly more overs.
Anyways, today's "public consensus" play is Buffalo / Toronto over 6. I'm taking it for half unit. In case it loses I might double down tomorrow.
3-star plays are good, 2-star plays are not good. Still need more data! I'm very interested in how the 5-star play will do (Steelers/Eagles under 43).
There's also a couple other interesting trends (NHL & NFL). I'll break it down a bit later.
Nice Saturday filled with a few solid setups
There was Bucks -3.5, OKC -5.5 and Avalanche 3-way ML. The start aligned and the suggested plays cashed. Other cappers did well too. Bread Head’s juicy UFC parlay cashed to improve his record to 23-2 👏
Sunday is Sunday, you know my attitude. But maybe I’ll find something worth betting.
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Mira is coming off 4 wins in the NBA and is 8-1 in these setups. And there's TMS who is 9-1 in the NBA this month. Both have Bucks spread.
LC is coming off 5 losses, 3-0 in these setups. His play is OKC -5.5.
Personally did Bucks -3.5 for a unit. Good luck if you're tailing!
Saturday. UFC. Bowl games.
Cappers mostly screwed up yesterday which was kind of anticipated (Fridays are the worst day I'll keep saying that).
But we have TMS who tops the ranking of free cappers. 9-1 NBA run in December. Solid. Trends:
TBSB's picks are 24-14 coming off 2 losses.
Analytics Capper's POTDs are 34-46 coming off 1 win with -13% ROI. 18-22 on Saturdays.
🤓 More trends and better variety of solid cappers are in the paid. You can just blindly
More interesting trends is in our premium. And of course there is a variety of solid cappers, which you can just blindly tail. And there's our chat with the masterminds of sports betting 👀
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PickzHub was wrong — everyone had 49ers. But Scuzz had Rams and his TNF picks move to 10-3 this season. Scuzz's picks might be a good move today: 16% ROI across 136 picks on Fridays. Porter Picks >=5U plays are on 0-5 run + he's good on Fridays.
Gut feeling take: PickzHub will hit a losing streak.
Friday is the worst day for betting anyways, so I'll chill today. Good luck!
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Solid “primetime under” start to the game
Guys from the chat are all hyped up
Rangers respect the coin. Let's see how these three will do:
Kings / Devils under 6
Golden Knights ML
Rams / 49ers UNDER 49
Again, I do not suggest betting nor do I tail these myself. Trying to see if all this can make sense so need to track to have some data
Two specific examples:
Pardon My Pick's NBA picks & Fivestar's NCAAB picks. Two fairly lengthy leagues with games going on almost every day (unlike the NFL and NCAAF).
PMP hangs around 50% win rate in the NBA. Fivestar is sub 50% in the NCAAB.
And both are doing well on Wednesdays which also turns out to be the best day of the week in the 15k-picks sample.
Maybe Wednesday is the day when books are sleepy and they forget to "set traps" 😁
Or maybe it's all just a huge coincidence.
I doubt there's an answer. But I find it interesting.
Open to debate 👉 @realdeal666
NY Rangers caught some attention early on but it's not a cappers consensus. Twitter is full of Sabres mockery... Buy-low spot on Sabres?
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Yesterday:
Ninja's play lost like it should have (Predators are 🔥🗑)
PickzHub's play won again even though I was skeptical about it
Sean Perry's play lost by the hook. I liked it! Had this play in the paid!
Today:
The almighty PickzHub is 8-1 coming off 4 wins! Lock of the day?
TBSB is now coming off 2 losses and his picks are 23-14 in these spots.
Rest of intel — in the paid 🫢
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Cappers took it light yesterday and I'm sure today we'll see a ton of action. But even so, the trends worked fine:
TBSB's play lost as expected; PickzHub's square parlays keep hitting; Cody Covers is the king of Monday Night Football. There are interesting trends for today too:
1. Vegas Ninja: 25-27 coming off 3 wins (-20% ROI). Looks like a fade if it's an NBA pick. 41-37 on Tuesdays (-16.1% ROI)
2. PickzHub: 9-14 coming off 3 wins
3. Sean Perry: 42-29 coming off 1 win (15.8% ROI)
4. Prof Locks PODs: 35-18 Tuesdays 🤷♂️
5. TMS: 6-1 NBA run this month
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Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong, but I'm right more often I'm than wrong:
Duck lost, Sean Perry lost, Cody won, GL won, PickzHub won. But that was yesterday. What about today.
1. TMS NBA picks are 6-1 this month. Wouldn't fade him.
2. VN is 25-27 coming off 3 wins. Would consider fading if it's NBA.
3. PickzHub is solid in the NFL (37-24).
4. TBSB is 15-26 after 2 wins.
5. Duck Investments is 4-12 in the NFL on Mondays.
6. Sean Perry is 18-29 on Mondays; 14-23 NFL.
7.Analytics Capper's POTDs are 34-45 coming off 1 win.
8. Prof POD's are 21-27 on Mondays.
9. Porter Pick's big plays (>=5U) are suspiciously good on Mondays.
As always, these are just trends, not always there is any correlation.
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NHL was good, NBA was ok, NFL… I don’t even bother looking at it
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TMS keeps surprising me. In a good way. Just like Cody and Smart Money Sports whose picks I forgot to post yesterday. The rest of cappers are a good part of the fade parade.
I've got two trends for you today:
Porter Picks (>=5U): 24-8 on Mondays
TBSB coming of 2 wins: 15-27
But still I wouldn't be too hyped about TMS — his MNF picks are 15-16. Basically you have a 50% chance of winning if you tail him. Same as tossing a coin.
PickzHub, however, is 38-24 with NFL picks overall, but just 7-7 on Monday Night Football. Same coin flip. But at least he has an overall-positive winning record with NFL picks.
Who else? Maybe the same Cody Covers will pick a winner today. He is 12-3 with ML picks & 14-5 with Totals on Monday Night Football. Spreads are just 7-8. Don't ask me how and why. I just tell you the numbers.
And I'll also have my team trends posted here (/channel/cappers_journal) as always. The first-ever 5-star play was a winner with Eagles / Steelers under 43. 3-star plays are also doing pretty well. 2-stay plays are shabby. Might get rid of them if they stay hanging around 50% win rate by the end of the month.
Good luck in your action today!
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A couple thoughts on the Lions / Bills game
Lions ATS: 31-19 as favs, 62-43 on Sundays. Bills are 35-24 ATS as away team. If some decent cappers pick Lions it might be a play for me. So for 60/40 in favor of Lions.
Totals are interesting here too. Bills are 5-0 L5 to the OVER. Never been more than 5 overs in a row since 2017. But Lions at home = OVER (40-23 since 2017).
Not sure to expect from the cappers now. Sundays are usually pretty whack after good Saturdays, NFL is always a shitshow. My fade contenders: TMS, Duck Investments, Sean Perry. Be seein'.
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Bucks -3.5 was a winner for me and the team today. Really like the setup on OKC -5.5 but I’m chickening out. So decided to share with everyone. GL!
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2-1 yesterday. 3-star plays are 3-0. Decent tendency. Hope these trends keep it the same way and if we have a 60% win rate over a decent chuck of plays it'll be a goldmine.
Also including the NFL picks for tomorrow. There's the first 5-star play. Let's see how it goes. Will most likely start with a loser like always but who knows 🤪
That was a nice 3-0 progression for the trends yesterday but still to early to draw any conclusion.
One NHL under today in the Hurricanes game. Lakers on average do not cover in away games and games mostly go over.
Also compiled NFL sheets so I'll have NFL trends too.
Whenever you discover some trend it just immediately stops working. Happens all the time.
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There's an interesting TNF trend over the last 7 games:
Game goes over the total = underdog covers
Games stays under the total = favorite covers
And what's more interesting, this trend happens every other game the last 7 weeks:
10/24: Rams (underdog vs Vikings, won outright) covered + over
10/31: Jets (favorite vs Texans) covered + under
11/7: Bengals (underdog vs Ravens) covered + over
11/14: Eagles (favorite vs Commanders) covered + under
11/21: Browns (underdog vs Steelers, won outright) covered + over
11/28: Packers (favorite vs Dolphins) covered + under
12/5: Packers (underdog vs Lions) covered + over
Paid content had a juicy day as most relied upon cappers did very well. Free stuff was not so great — Knicks really lost to the Hawks ☠️ and I thought PickzHub had a lock of the day parlay. Hope today will be better. I want everyone to win.
For today:
Prof Locks — 26-14 NFL on Thursdays.
Vegas Ninja — 26-25 coming off 2 losses but knowing he loves juice it's all bad bad — -12.8% ROI. NFL is good though. NBA picks are bad.
Sean Perry coming off 2 losses is 14-19; 21-23 NCAAB.
PickzHub: 44-29 coming off 1 L and 35-31 with cross-sports parlays. Good when he bets against most other cappers' NFL picks.
Good luck!
Rest of intel — in the paid 🫢
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Decided to ponder more on the correlation between capper results and days of the week. I know it's hard to believe that on certain days cappers perform worse or better and I'm sometimes skeptical about it too. And most likely we won't get a clear answer on this, but we can understand one thing.
On weekdays, cappers show better results than on weekends. That's probably because on weekends (Friday through Sunday), books get more public action. I don't really like the "books set traps" phrase but that might be it.
15k tracked picks sample proves this point.
Classic shitty start to everything new hehe. Keeping on tracking.
Again, I do not suggest to bet these nor do I bet these myself. Trying to see if all this can make sense so need to track to have some data
Let's see what a few days of work can lead to. Added more stats to the sheet that I posted a few days ago with NHL teams and their trends. But that's not the most interesting part...
Today's picks are:
Maple Leafs @ Devils over 6 -120
Panthers @ Kraken over 6 -103
Will track it for the rest of the month to see how it goes.
It's a quiet Monday with very few games to bet.
I even made this new neat sheet but there's nothing to add to it 😁
Solid Sunday across all leagues in the paid:
AFS ✅ (129-85)
Tommy NBA capper ✅ (155-115)
Shark NHL capper ✅ (50-21)
GL ✅ (29-4 NFL)
Prof Locks POW ✅ (35-10)
Full recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Good old cappers like Fivestar and YDC had a good day too (I don't really like them because of high volume of picks but everyone has their own taste 🤓)
Rest of the year special 👉 @realdeal666
