Everything was fine, except everything I had planned for parlay lost ... 🥴
Home underdogs swept, home favorite (Rays) won, Dodgers over was easy. Moving on.
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Last 3 Dodgers games all did not hit the over. Dodgers coming off 3 unders are...
16-6 to the over off 3 unders
5-1 to the over off 4 unders
1-0 to the over off 5 unders (max unders streak)
76% chance that in the next 3 games dodgers hit the over. here's what I'll do:
Dodgers / Brewers over 8.5 -105 (to win 0.25U) today. In case of loss will do to win 0.5U tmrw and so on.
HOME UNDERDOGS
Saturdays are decent. Time to choose:
🥇 Blue Jays ML (+110). Home underdogs are 21-13 SU in 1st game of the day
🥈 Nats ML (+130). Fading Padres trend
🥉 Rockies (+165). Longest odds of the day. Don't like anything else.
INTEL MLB UNDERS
Reds under 8 -105
Padres under 8.5 +105
Yankees under 8.5 +100
HOME UNDERDOGS
Friday is not the best day for home dogs so no 🥇 play (still 10-6 record on those)
🥇 skip
🥈 Rangers ML (+105)
🥉 Marlins ML (+100)
MLB is back. Posting all updates as usual: home underdogs, juiced favs, etc.
Personally already locked a few plays for today. Will post my CFL play here.
Night night play & my parlay only posted in the paid subscription.
You can sign up @ https://cappersintel.com for weekly/monthly/yearly and get access to all my plays + top cappers that I track.
Updates coming soon.
MLS PARLAY
Today I'm taking a three team MLS parlay (+225):
Atlanta / Chicago over 2.5
Atlanta is 10-0 to OVER 2.5 as a favorite on Wednesdays
Charlotte is 15-6 to the OVER 2.5 on Wednesdays
Dallas is 14-4 to the OVER 2.5 on Wednesdays
Why did I start doing parlays. I mentioned a few days ago that I am doing 2-team parlays now which combine my WNBA / CFL / night night plays. I set up a small bankroll for this thing and want to see how much I can flip it to. Ideally will buy a new car 😂 but I won't get ahead of myself.Читать полностью…
I got a 1k bankroll, 1 unit is 10% ($100), the bankroll is dynamic — I bet more if I win and less if I lose.
So far the results are:
Parlay 1: Night play (Dodgers team total over 3.5) ✅ + CFL (Roughriders team total over 29.5) 🅿️ — $100 ➡️ $187
Parlay 2: Night play ✅ + CFL favorite ✅ — $108 ➡️ $283
Parlay 3: NY LIBERTY / ATL DREAM UNDER 165.5 ✅ + Edmonton +3.5 (CFL) ❌ — -$128
I have $1155 in my bankroll. Today I'm betting $115.
WNBA
Indiana / Connecticut UNDER 166.5 (-110) 1.5U ⚡️
Connecticut +16 (-110) 0.5U
1.5U plays are 3-0 this season. Let's keep the streak goingЧитать полностью…
Time for a little breather, recent performance hasn't been peaking.
But we will have WNBA.
And on Wednesday we will have MLS, And on Thursday we will have CFL (speaking of which - yesterday's second leg of the parlay - Edmonton +3.5 - was from cashing).
And so...
WNBA
CHICAGO +10.5 (-110) — 1U
PHOENIX / GOLDEN STATE UNDER 158.5 (-110) — 1U
Teaser (-110) 0.5U:
Chicago +15
PHOENIX / GOLDEN STATE UNDER 163
I really don't like Chicago +10.5 because of Cabang's 5% play 😭Читать полностью…
No night night play since my trends suggest Padres ML and I already have them as the top home underdog of the day
Читать полностью…
I got another 2-leg parlay today: WNBA + CFL.
This WNBA play is also a 1.5U play (my 1.5U+ WNBA plays are 4-0 this season), game goes in 1 hour (NY vs Indiana)
I already dropped it in the paid subscription (you can sign up at https://cappersintel.com to get all my action + top cappers that I track) or you can message me and I will send the play to you — you can tip me when it wins.
Dm me "parlay" @realdeal666
INTEL MLB UNDERS
Reds under 9.5 -105
Guardians under 9.5 -105
Mets under 8.5 -108
HOME FAVORITES
No more choosing between underdogs / favorites. Let's just stick with home teams (I will cover home underdogs in the next post).
I did some sorting on Sundays games and turns out home favorites priced between 1.60 to 1.90 (-166 to -110) are most profitable. To be even more specific: -125 to -110. Not too many teams in this price range: Yankees and Orioles.
Not a fan of betting Yankees, so my choice is Orioles ML today. Also, home favorites are 10-4 SU in the first game on Sunday. And team trends are more favorable here.
😀😀😀
Detailed breakdown on the 1U system play.
Seattle under 2.5 (yes, it's an alt line @ +180 — because I track overs&unders at 2.5 for all teams).
Seattle is the home favorite today...
29-32 to the over as home favorites (-15% ROI)
34-44 to the over on Saturdays (-18.5% ROI)
4-8 to the over off 2 overs (-42% ROI)
UNDER 2.5 is +180 which translates to 35.7% chance of hitting whereas I have it at 46.4%
I'll take UNDER 2.5 (+180). Do not attempt this at home. Take under 3.5 (-130) if you're tailing. GL!
HOME FAVORITES
I even made a separate sheet for Saturday home favs only. And favorites in the range of 1.80 to 1.89 (-125 to -111) do well (62%). There's a few teams near this range, all will depend on the closing lines. For now I see a few teams:
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
...
Long story short, I would take Rays today. Because i have Orioles in my MLB Lab list and those trends suck on Saturdays. Will I bet it? Probably not.
CFL
Winnipeg team total over ... current number is 28.5. I locked in 26.5 in the AM... which was posted in the paid subscription where I share all the good stuff 🤓 Sign up here: https:/cappersintel.com or message me @realdeal666 and get access to all my plays + cappers that I track + our community
Go ahead and take 28.5 if you're tailing me.
Explanations on why this play and not any other play: /channel/intel_football_lab/328
JUICED FAVS
I don't remember if I showed this sheet. This one has juiced favs SPREADS.
Nothing interesting today, just sharing.
So far there's Phillies (vs Angels) and Dodgers (vs Brewers) that qualify for "juiced favs".
Imo, sketchy matchups, I think one of the two dogs wins. So I wouldn't add these teams in all parlays today. However, live betting these teams would be good. Especially since Dodgers game starts late and we'll know how Phillies game ends.
Nice parlay cash yesterday. WNBA wasn't nice but I didn't have any expectations (personally only tailing all 1.5U+ plays, you know).
No WNBA or MLS today, but we have CFL. My play is on the screenshot (Montreal team total under 30.5 -110).
Why this play and what else you can bet today — read here: /channel/intel_football_lab/325
Will also drop a post on NCAAF in that channel ^ soon.
See y'all tomorrow with MLB action!
WNBA
PHOENIX +10 (-105) — 1U ❌
Teaser (-110) 0.5U:
Phoenix +14.5
Indiana / New York under 167.5
Outplayed all cappers pretending to be WNBA experts 😁
The under was as high as 182.5 in-play. Still cashed. Never doubt my big plays 😎
No big plays today though: one 1U play and a 0.5U teaser. Will post them in a couple hours.
But I'm also eyeing some soccer for today 👀
Cash the under ✅
Cash the teaser ✅
The play that I said doesn’t look good did not cash ❌
Got two WNBA plays for today. One half unit play, one 1.5U play. 1.5U plays are 3-0, hopefully the trend continues and we win today.
Will post later. Stay tuned.
WNBA 1.5U ✅
Had the under 165.5. 151 total points scored
1 leg to go
WNBA
SEATTLE -7 (-110) — 0.5U
1.5U play goes live in 5 minutes, see post aboveЧитать полностью…
Bonus
Here's how I use the MLB trends and select what to play. Just wanted to share since I have a nearly perfect example. This is one of the "INTEL MLB UNDERS" for today (posted above)
Here we have a chart of OVERS in CINCINNATI REDS games. Clearly you can see that overs don't hit in Reds' games very often. So in the long run you can just bet unders in all their games and that's it. But since I'm here to show you my voodoo analytics, here you go:
All time overs: 195-222 (46.7%) -10.4% ROI
2025 overs: 39-54 (41.9%) -19.7% ROI
As home favorites: 42-61 (40.7%) -22% ROI
Sundays: 24-66 (34.3%) -32.6% ROI
Off 3 unders: 5-20 (20%) -61.8% ROI
My sheets have the over hitting in this game at 42.2%. Here are the parameters and the weights:
Bet Type 15% (DOG/FAV/ND)
Place 20% (HOME/AWAY)
Day of Week 10%
Month 10%
Last 10 Games 20%
Current Season 10%
Current Streak 10%
Odds Range 5%
If you have questions or suggestion on improving feel free to dm me @realdeal666 or just enjoy the Reds / Rockies UNDER
This under better fucking hit. I made it look like it's the lock of the century 😂 UPD: ✅Читать полностью…
HOME UNDERDOGS
White Sox & Giants were not the move, but Padres upset so many cappers yesterday.
Today:
🥇 Padres ML. The sweep is real. My sheets estimate them at 60% chance of winning (which translates to -150 or 1.66).
Not touching anything else. Other home underdogs: Angels, Giants, Athletics, Royals, White Sox and Tigers. Pretty much the same teams as yesterday. The only team I definitely would not bet out of this list is Royals. Mets are rolling recently and I think they can continue their streak.
Night play, CFL and my bonus parlay which I will be posting in the subscription moving on all hit ✅
WNBA, MLB underdogs — ❌
Out of all plays I personally bet yesterday I only missed White Sox ML. CFL play, night play and the parlay hit.
I got a big 1.5U WNBA play. You guys disliked my WNBA post so hard yesterday that I don't want to share it today 😭😂 Definitely will have a CFL play. Not sure about a night play.
Will also change something in here — instead of choosing between underdogs&favorites each day, I'll just start breaking down favorites. It's easier to do home favorites instead of away underdogs. So, I will be covering home underdogs and home favorites.
Also I got some more stats on juiced favorites — on their run lines specifically. So we will also have this stuff.
Good luck!
