QUICK MLB SZN RECAP:
Favorites are 91-54 SU ✅
Favorites are 19-4 SU on Fridays ✅
Favorites in the last games of the day are 10-2 SU ✅
Not necessarily today, but Dodgers -1.5 will feed families.. in the long run.
Читать полностью…
Sunday:
Draws:
🇮🇹 Torino / Verona DRAW (+250)
🇮🇹 Roma / Juventus DRAW (+215) — risk 0.2 U
🏴 Brentford / Chelsea DRAW (+275) — risk 0.1 U
🇪🇸 Valladolid / Getafe DRAW (+220) — risk 0.1 U
🇩🇪 St Pauli / M'gladbach DRAW (+245) — risk 0.3 U
🇩🇪 Union Berlin / Wolfsburg DRAW (+235) — risk 0. 2U
🇫🇷 Reims / Strasbourg DRAW (+250) — risk 0.2 U
Totals:
🏴 Fulham / Liverpool OVER 2.5 (-127) — risk 0.2 U
🇮🇹 Roma / Juventus UNDER 2.5 (-150) — risk 0.3 U
🇫🇷 Reims / Strasbourg UNDER 2.5 (-115) — risk 0.2 U
🇩🇪 St Pauli / M'gladbach OVER 2.5 (-120) — risk 0.2 U
Intel system: weekend soccer plays
Friday plays:
⚽️🇮🇹 Genoa / Udinese UNDER 2 (-122) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇮🇹 Genoa / Udinese DRAW (+200) —risk 0.3 U
⚽️🇫🇷 Nice / Nantes DRAW (+380) — risk 0.2 U
I'll drop Saturday & Sunday plays in the next postЧитать полностью…
MAVERICKS O/U BREAKDOWN
* These graphs show the performance of betting the OVERs in Mavericks' games since 2021 *
Mavericks have been on a hell of a OVERs run (10-1 L11 to the OVER). Will they go on? Let's see:
Graph 1: overall, Mavs are 17-28 to the OVER on Monday (37.8% win rate, -27% ROI). Mavs are 33-42 to the OVER after last game went OVER (44% win rate, -16% ROI).
Graph 2: best scenarios for Mavs UNDERS: home / away fav + home underdog + Mon/Wed/Fri. Mondays: 12-23 (34.3% win rate, -34.5% ROI). Coming off 2 overs: 3-8 (27% win rate, -48% ROI).
Mavs are facing Nets today who are 33-42 to the OVER this season and 15-21 as away to the OVER.
My intel suggests the UNDER is a decent play today. Will it cash?
👍 — UNDER
👎 — OVER
Breakdowns stats:Читать полностью…
NHL: 3-0
NBA: 0-1
MLB: 0-1
🚨 Announcement from @realdeal666:
I tried and I failed. I am killing the Intel system.
Won't blame bad luck. It must be my fault and wrong approach. Sucks that it's been working so well for the first 2 months and everything fell apart after I thought it was worth adding to the paid section.
Kold's system is still the only sustainable system I've seen love it or hate it. Even after being down on the month he still managed to profit.
I'm still be helping Kold with everything I can, we're still partners, it's all good.
From now on I will focus on intel itself: trends, breakdowns, interesting angles. All that will be posted on the free page. Might keep the soccer system going, it's been alright.
Kold offered next month free for everyone who joined us so if you still haven't join the channel for April plays, dm me @realdeal666 or Kold @koldishot
If you have any questions or want to tell me something feel free to message me @realdeal666
INTEL MLB SYSTEM TEST:
Orioles ML +115 — risk 0.5 U
Orioles / Blue Jays UNDER 9 -120 — risk 0.5 U
Braves ML +100 — risk 0.5 U
TESTING THE SYSTEM FOR MLB. NOT ACTUALLY BETTING IT. In a couple weeks, Kold will also help me with the MLB system. I will be tracking his and mine approaches for the same plays and we will see which one works best.Читать полностью…
INTEL SYSTEM 3/29 RECAP 👎
NHL:
Flyers / Sabres UNDER 6 (-107) — risk 0.5 U ❌
Islanders ML (+210) — to win 0.5 U ❌
Avalanche / Blues OVER 5.5 (-120) — risk 0.5 U ❌
Soccer MLS:
New England / New York UNDER 2.5 (-130) — risk 0.5 U ❌
NBA:
76ers +8.5 (-110) — risk 0.5 U ❌
Lakers / Grizzlies OVER 238.5 (-110) — risk 0.5 U ✅
Soccer MLS:
Atlanta / New York OVER 2.5 (-161) — risk 0.5 U ✅
Yesterday: -1.48 U
Month: -8.31 U
Adding one soccer DRAW play:
🇺🇸 MLS
Dallas / Kansas City DRAW (+280) — risk 0.1 U
The graph is below the trend line. 29-51 on Saturdays (30.5% ROI). 4-7 coming off 3 losses (29% ROI)
MARCH 28, 2025 RECAP
11-1 😱 ONE SHORT OF A SWEEP DAMN YOU RANGERS
Martingale Mania (by @koldishot)
1️⃣ | 🏒 | rangers mL | -160 | TO WIN 0.3 UNITS ❌
2️⃣ | 🏒 | hockey club +1.5 | -125 | TO WIN 0.15 UNITS ✅
3️⃣ | 🏀 | clippers -12 | -130 | TO WIN 0.6 UNITS ✅
4️⃣ | 🏀 | timberwolves -6.5 | -130 | TO WIN 0.1 UNITS ✅
5️⃣ | 🏀 | pelicans +16 | -130 | TO RISK 0.4 UNITS ✅
6️⃣ | 🏀 | knicks ml | -110 | TO WIN 0.6 UNITS ✅
7️⃣ | 🏀 | pistons +6.5 | TO WIN 0.3 UNITS ✅
8️⃣ | 🏀 | nuggets -19 | -105 | to win 0.45 ✅
9️⃣ | 🏀 | jazz vs nuggets under 241 | -130 | TO WIN 0.15 UNITS ✅
🔟 | 🏀 | suns vs timberwolves over 225.5 | +100 | TO RISK 0.1 UNITS ✅
1️⃣1️⃣ | 🏀 | cavs vs pistons over 232.5 | +100 | TO RISK 0.1 UNITS ✅
1️⃣2️⃣ | 🏀 | knicks vs bucks over 216.5 | -130 | TO WIN 0.2 UNITS ✅
Yesterday: +2.27 UЧитать полностью…
Month: +2.11 U
INTEL MLB SYSTEM TEST:
Dodgers -1.5 (-110) — risk 0.5 U ✅
Astros / Mets OVER 8.5 (-104) — risk 0.5 U ❌
TESTING THE SYSTEM FOR MLB. NOT ACTUALLY BETTING IT. In a couple weeks, Kold will also help me with the MLB system. I will be tracking his and mine approaches for the same plays and we will see which one works best.Читать полностью…
INTEL SYSTEM FREE SOCCER PLAYS
Draws
Friday:
⚽️🇫🇷 Strasbourg / Lyon DRAW (+260) — risk 0.1 U
Saturday:
⚽️🇮🇹 Venezia / Bologna DRAW (+260) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇩🇪 Frankfurt / Stuttgart DRAW (+275) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇩🇪 M'gladbach / Leipzig DRAW (+265) — risk 0.1 U
ADD: 🇺🇸 MLS Dallas / Kansas City DRAW (+280) — risk 0.1 U
Sunday:
⚽️🇫🇷 Reims / Marseille DRAW (+320) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇫🇷 Havre / Nantes DRAW (+235) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇫🇷 Lille / Lens DRAW (+250) — risk 0.2 U
UPD: ⚽️🇪🇸 Getafe / Villareal (+220) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇩🇪 Dortmund / Mainz DRAW (+320) — risk 0.1 U
MARCH 27, 2025 RECAP
NHL:
Sabres / Penguins OVER 6.5 (-115) — to win 0.5 U ✅
Penguins ML (+115) — to win 0.5 U ❌
Sharks ML (+200) — to win 0.5 U ✅
Lightning / Utah OVER 6 (-115) — risk 0.5 U ✅
Oilers ML (-120) — risk 0.5 U ❌
NBA:
Spurs +14.5 (-110) ✅
Spurs / Cavs under 236.5 (-110) — risk 0.5 U ❌
Bulls +4.5 (-115) — risk 0.5 U ✅
Yesterday: +0.89 U
Month: -6 U
Good soccer weekend.
Testing MLB on paper for now, not posting it. Might start posting once soccer season is over. Unless it crashes out again 😂
DODGERS -1.5 WILL FEED FAMILIES
Been hearing this ^ since the start of the season. But Dodgers -1.5 has been profitable over the past 2 seasons (including alt lines when they are underdogs too). And they are 7-4 this season.
25-7 on Mondays
55-36 coming off 1 L (30% ROI)
This includes Dodgers -1.5 no matter if they are favorites or underdogs.
Dodgers -1.5 is -110 today against the Nationals. Will they cover? 👀
👍 — Dodgers will cover -1.5
👎 — Nationals will cover +1.5 🙄
Saturday:
Draws
🏴 Crystal Palace / Brighton DRAW (+240) — risk 0.2 U
🇪🇸 Real Madrid / Valencia DRAW (+500) — risk 0.1 U
🇫🇷 Lyon / Lille DRAW (+260) — risk 0.2 U
🇺🇸 Atlanta / Dallas DRAW (+300) — risk 0.05U
Totals
🇩🇪 Mainz / Kiel UNDER 3 (-112) — risk 0.1 U
🇺🇸 New York / Chicago UNDER 2.5 (-105) — risk 0.1 U
🇺🇸 Atlanta / Dallas OVER 3 (-116) — risk 0.2 U
🇺🇸 Charlotte / Nashville OVER 2.5 (-128) — risk 0.1 U
Add: 🇪🇸 Barcelons / Betis UNDER 3.5 (-120) — risk 0.2 U
EPL Midweek ⚽️
Brighton / Aston Villa under 2.5 (-102) — risk 0.2 U ❌
Southampton / Crystal Palace DRAW (+320) — risk 0.1 U ✅
Chelsea / Tottenham DRAW (+360) — risk 0.1 U (tomorrow)
Weekend had some nice and profitable overs/unders but none of the draws cashed
It had to be done 🫡
Kold's approach is working, no point in changing anything. My approach was most likely flawed from the beginning even though it was looking so promising.
I will focus only on Intel and helping Kold. Seems like the breakdowns are doing ok. Expect another one within 30 minutes
Padres are off to a 3-0 start against the Braves. Won twice as underdogs and once as favorites.
Padres are 9-16 coming off 3 straight wins. (36% win rate, -35% ROI). Padres are 24-29 on Sundays (45% win rate, -21.3% ROI). Padres 77-58 as home favorites but the ROI is still -9.5% due to juiced average odds.
Will Braves (+110) avoid a sweep today?
👍 — Braves win
👎 — Padres win
PANTHERS O/U BREAKDOWN
Straight to the point:
The graph is below the trend line. Panthers are 14-5 to the OVER on Sunday (74% win rate, 42% ROI). Panthers are 46-24 to the OVER coming off 1 UNDER (66% win rate, 27% ROI). Panthers are 78-58 to the OVER as home favorite (57.3% win rate, 10.7% ROI)
Panthers / Canadiens OVER 5.5 (-125)
HEAT ATS BREAKDOWN
Let’s see how NBA will work. Todays subject is Heat who are on a 5-0 ATS run. I guess because no one really believes in them anymore after they traded Butler. They’re playing against a fully injured 76ers team today. Let me elaborate.
The ATS graph (graph 1) hit through trend line (expecting it to reverse to the mean). The stats are also suggesting they will not cover: 22-31 ATS on Saturdays (-20.7% ROI), 33-36 ATS as away favorite (-8.6% ROI).
The 2nd graph includes all worst scenarios for Heat ATS. It’s a match. What’s also interesting is they are on a 4-0 ATS run which only happened once and never got past that mark. And the graph is above the trend line so yeah, looking for it to go down.
I think that’s enough to take 76ers spread today.
Good luck!
Recaps of the two systems are posted above.
Kold's system went 11-1 yesterday 😳
Intel system went 1-3 and the only winner was the play that I also posted for free (I don't know if I should laugh or cry)
INTEL SYSTEM 3/28 RECAP
NHL:
Utah HC ML (+210) — to win 0.5 U ❌
Ducks / Rangers UNDER 6 (-101) — risk 0.5 U ❌
Golden Knights / Blackhawks OVER 6 (-120) — risk 0.5 U ✅
NBA:
Utah Jazz +18 (-110) — risk 0.5 U ❌
Yesterday: -0.84 UЧитать полностью…
Month: -6.84 U
GOLDEN KNIGHTS vs BLACKHAWKS O/U BREAKDOWN
2 graphs again
Graph 1: Vegas overs/unders since 2021. Two key factors for me here: the graph is below the trend line + Golden Knights are 23-10 to the OVER on Fridays (69,7% win rate, 33,1% ROI)
Graph 2: This game is the most public bet NHL OVER according to covers(.)com consensus (it's hard to measure "public" so I refer to covers consensus). And you know I track these public consensus moves. Same situation here: the graph is almost at its all time lows so it has potential for growth. Public consensus is decent on Fridays: 58.5% win rate, 11.8% ROI. And overall March is when NHL sees most OVERS. However, this season unders are prevailing, which means overs are due. Or are they? Let's find out.
GOLDEN KNIGHTS / BLACKHAWKS OVER 6 (-120)
Good luck!
INTEL SYSTEM FREE SOCCER PLAYS
Totals
Friday:
⚽️🇫🇷 Strasbourg / Lyon OVER 2.5 (-152) — risk 0.4 U
Saturday:
⚽️🇫🇷 Monaco / Nice UNDER 3 (-120) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇩🇪 Frankfurt / Stuttgart UNDER 3 (-101) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇩🇪 M'gladbach / Leipzig OVER 3 (-122) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇮🇹 Juventus / Genoa UNDER 2.5 (-143) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇮🇹 Venezia / Bologna UNDER2.5 (-145) — risk 0.4 U
Sunday:
⚽️🇫🇷 Havre / Nantes UNDER 2.5 (-140) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇩🇪 Dortmund / Mainz OVER 2.5 (-150) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇩🇪 Freiburg / Union Berlin OVER 2.5 (+108) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇪🇸 Betis / Sevilla UNDER 2.5 (-127) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇪🇸 Valencia / Mallorca OVER 2 (-112) — risk 0.1 U
⚽️🇪🇸 Athletic / Osasuna UNDER 2.5 (-120) — risk 0.1 U
Yesterday's recaps ^
Posting today's updates soon. Got some soccer lined up
MARCH 27, 2025 RECAP
1️⃣ | 🏒 | red wings ml | +115 | TO RISK 0.1 UNITS ❌
2️⃣ | 🏒 | stars ml | -135 | TO WIN 0.1 UNITS ✅
3️⃣ | 🏒 | maple leafs 3 way mL | -160 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ❌
4️⃣ | 🏀 | hawks +2 | -110 | TO WIN 0.4 UNITS ❌
5️⃣ | 🏀 | kings -5.5 | -130 | TO WIN 0.1 UNITS ✅
6️⃣ | 🏀 | magic -6 | -130 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ✅
7️⃣ | 🏀 | bulls +3.5 | -105 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ✅
8️⃣ | 🏀 | cavaliers -15 | -105 | TO WIN 0.1 UNITS ❌
9️⃣ | 🏀 | jazz +13.5 | -130 | TO WIN 0.3 UNITS ✅
1️⃣0️⃣ | 🏀 | WIZARDS +14 | -130 | TO WIN 0.15 UNITS ❌
1️⃣1️⃣ | 🏀 | mavericks vs magic over 219 | +100 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ❌
1️⃣2️⃣ | rockets vs jazz over 228.5 | +100 | TO WIN 0.1 UNITS ✅
1️⃣3️⃣ | pacers vs wizards over 236 | +100 | TO RISK 0.3 UNITS ✅
1️⃣4️⃣ | heat vs hawks over 225 | -130 | TO WIN 0.2 UNITS ✅
Yesterday: +0.11 UЧитать полностью…
Month: -0.17 U
LIGTHNING / UTAH OVER BREAKDOWN
First graph: all overs/unders since 2021. The team mostly plays overs but this season they are 30-33 to the OVER. The graph deviated from the trend line, which has a fairly high coefficient of determination (0.826... the closer it is to 1 the better — deviations from the trend should not be too strong), and it may be near it's lows. Which is why I think the OVER in Lightning's game is a play. Today should be a good day because...
Thursdays: 37-26 to the OVER (12.2% ROI)
Coming off 2 OVERs in a row: 25-16 (16.5% ROI)
Home / favorite: 70-52 to the OVER
Second graph: best scenarios for Lightning's overs: home + favorite + Tue/Thu/Sat/Sun. Same situation here. The graph is below the line + Thursdays are positive + 15-9 coming off1 over.
All this points towards LIGHTNING / UTAH OVER 6 (-110)
P.S. I'm doing such breakdowns for every play but I wouldn't have enough time to do it. But I have time to do one such breakdown a day. Now just need some progression for the trends and we will be good.
