Edmonton is cruising!
Not a great day of MLB plays, but WNBA and CFL save the day (unless Elks pull the guardians move lol)
I love seeing your feedback! I’m glad all this stuff I track has started converting to winning plays.
P.S. yes I also bet these plays. Not all of them though.
P.S 2. No night night play today — nothing stands out so no point to force action
There's also a great hedge / middle opportunity: OVER 156.5 (-120)
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Got a 2U WNBA play for the early game. Do you guys want it? 🤠
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Favorites are winning 41.9% of games on Sunday this season so let's look at underdogs.
I spoke about home underdogs earlier so there's two away underdogs that look good:
Reds (+190)
Cardinals (+175)
There are also some nice trends on the Reds today. Again, AI suggests they have a 54.75% win chance - huge value compared with the +190 odds. Reds +1.5 is also an option.
First game home teams are 10-4 on Sundays (favorites are 9-2)
Braves ML -150
Last time I posted this "first game of the day" angle, Nationals got absolutely crushed by the Red Sox 😭Читать полностью…
I’m not a capper but I give you more value than a thousand cappers 🫡
✅ MLB home underdog 🥇 play (8-2 on these)
✅ WNBA
✅ CFL (3-0 run)
✅ Night play (5-0 run)
Don't forget about Soccer LAB⚽️
Sweep with 2 DRAW🧹😎
CFL
There's one trend for tonight — it's the under. Was debating between the underdog's team total or full game. I think full game under is the move here.
Montreal / BC Under 50.5 (-115)
No juiced underdogs yet. Blue Jays are really close to -200
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MLB Dogs/Favs
Switched to away underdogs right on time yesterday. Doing the same today. So I’m thinking Angels right away - one of the most profitable underdogs this season. At the same time, there’s solid trends on Reds, Orioles and Royals.
So I’m not going to be picking one and will do a 4-way split like yesterday. At least 2 hit - good. 3 underdogs hit - great.
Angels +155
Reds +150
Orioles +110
Royals +115
Nothing interesting in the CFL today
On the one hand, home underdogs are 29-38 (23.2% ROI), on the other hand favorites dominate on Fridays.
Same with totals - July is all about unders but on Fridays there’s mostly overs.
If I had to choose something, I’d go with the under. But I’m not forced so I’ll just skip.
MLB dog/fav
Underdogs prevailed yesterday (6-4 SU). Looking at underdogs again today.
If i haven’t said I would not bet on the Yankees, I’d go with them today: 38-31 SU as away underdog for +21% ROI). But I can’t.
Instead, I’d do a 3-way split:
Yankees ML (38-31 SU as away dog for +21% ROI)
Astros (46-34 as away dog for +22.7% ROI)
Orioles ML (59-51 as away dog for + 20% ROI)
Looks like at least 2/3 would hit here. Can also add Royals (Dbacks are 31-36 on Fridays + 21-26 off 2 losses). Such good setups that it looks like away underdogs sweep today.
Tigers score in the top of 9th inning with no hits…
😡
WNBA
Liberty / Storm UNDER 167.5 (-110) 2U
Teaser -110 (0.5U):
Liberty / Storm UNDER 172
Connecticut +22
CFL
Home underdog again today. Home underdogs is probably the best angle in the CFL. Even outright ML plays are profitable in the long run here. But I have two options: either the spread or Edmonton team total. I'm sticking with...
Edmonton +1.5 (-110)
P.S. The line has moved towards Edmonton, so buying points to get to +3 (-150) is expensive here. As always, live bet is an option.
And here's an article on key numbers in CFL vs NFL: https://www.sportsbookbonus.ca/key-numbers-in-cfl-betting/Читать полностью…
🧃
Juiced favorites are 19-12 on Sundays for -16% ROI. There's a few of them today:
Phillies
Red Sox
Tigers
Cubs & Dodgers are close to -200
But there's one thing I've noticed: underdogs with long odds are doing well on Sundays (which is why I would skip juiced favs today and go with the underdogs — will elaborate in the next post 🔜
HOME UNDERDOGS 🌭
Home dogs on Sunday are consistently 50/50 which means they carry some value.
Here's my choice:
🥇 Guardians (+195)
🥈 Mets (+165)
🥉 no play
I ran some AI tests on my sheets and asked it to calculate probabilities for these teams. It suggested Guardians have 43.75% chance of winning (which translates to +129 odds), Mets — 43.97% (+127). So according to my stats these teams have more chances of winning than the listed odds suggest = value.
Guardians +1.5 is +110, Mets +1,5 is +100 — feel free to take the spreads.
MLS
NY Red Bulls under 3 -110 — risk 0.5U
Atlanta DRAW +240 — risk 1U
Charlotte DRAW +260 - risk 1U
I can’t believe some cappers are trying to snipe a Yankees win during their losing streak
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Home underdogs 🌭
Home underdogs went 0-4 yesterday, so I was right not picking a 🥇 play.
Today:
🥇 Twins. Home underdogs are 19-11 in the first game
🥈 Guardians. Fading my Tigers trend, they’re not doing well on Saturdays.
🥉 Mets. Same Yankees trend fade
Another good day huh
Away underdogs I listed: 3-1
Home underdogs: 1-1
And another night play cashed ✅
Today’s updates coming soon 🔜
HOME UNDERDOGS
2/3 yesterday with another 🥇 play cash.
I would place Nationals as the top play today but only if they were underdogs. So…
🥇no play
🥈 Marlins
🥉 Rockies
There’s also Guardians on 7 losses — that’s their max loss streak in 3 years of data. But Tigers are doing great off 2 losses and as away favorites. So I’ll skip this game.
