Underdogs were barking yesterday. Let's see if it continues.
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2 years since I started tracking the plays from the paid side of the content. How we looking?
Since 2023: 699 wins - 525 losses | +97 units | 7.9% ROI
2024: 363 wins - 301 losses | +17.6 units
2025: 176 wins - 124 losses | +29 units
(1 unit risk per bet, no bullshit 50 unit hammers etc)
4/21 Intel MLB
Reds ML -116
Blue Jays ML +120
Mets ML -120
Mets under 8 -115
7-13 L20 plays
NHL Playoffs stats 🤓📝
What if you bet all favorites on the money lines?
Well you'd be down pretty bad
Over the last 2 years, favorites in the NHL playoffs are 88-81 straight up for -13% ROI
If you risked $500 on each of these games, you'd be down $12k.
But if you risked $500 on each underdogs MLs you'd be up $9.8k
4/18 plays
Tigers / Royals OVER 7.5 (-110)
Royals ML (-140)
Rays ML (+100)
Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
13-3 run!
Planning on using this channel for something else (returning back to cappers stuff maybe???👀👀👀)
Intel MLB stuff posted here: /channel/mlb_us
Posting MLB plays within an hour
Soccer plays posted for today.
Testing Intel MLB approach on a new page: /channel/+cLfsv0ySIpwzZjNi
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SOCCER O/U:
🇮🇹 Serie A:
Juventus / Lecce UNDER 2.5 (-114) — risk 0.2 U
Atalanta / Bologna OVER 2.5 (-103) — risk 0.1 U
Como / Torino UNDER 2.5 (-140) — risk 0.2 U
Verona / Genoa UNDER 2 (-130) — risk 0.1 U
🏴 EPL:
Nottingham / Everton OVER 2.5 (+120) — risk 0.1 U
Brighton / Leicester UNDER 3 (-125) — risk 0.1 U
Liverpool / West Ham UNDER 3 (-102) — risk 0.1 U
Chelsea / Ipswich UNDER 3 (+120) — risk 0.1 U
🇪🇸 La Liga:
Getafe / Las Palmas UNDER 2.25 (-135) — risk 0.2 U
Betis / Villareal UNDER 2.5 (+110) — risk 0.1 U
🇩🇪 Bundesliga
Leverkusen / Union Berlin OVER 3 (-103) — risk 0.2 U
Borussia Monchengladbach / Freiburg OVER 3 (+100) — risk 0.2 U
Frankfurt / Heidenheim UNDER 3 (-133) — risk 0.2 U
🇺🇸 MLS:
Orlando City / New York UNDER 2.5 (-105) — risk 0.1 U
Atlanta / New England OVER 3 (-120) — risk 0.2 U
Dallas / Seattle UNDER 2.5 (-132) — risk 0.1 U
QUICK MLB SZN RECAP:
Favorites are 91-54 SU ✅
Favorites are 19-4 SU on Fridays ✅
Favorites in the last games of the day are 10-2 SU ✅
Not necessarily today, but Dodgers -1.5 will feed families.. in the long run.
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Sunday:
Draws:
🇮🇹 Torino / Verona DRAW (+250)
🇮🇹 Roma / Juventus DRAW (+215) — risk 0.2 U
🏴 Brentford / Chelsea DRAW (+275) — risk 0.1 U
🇪🇸 Valladolid / Getafe DRAW (+220) — risk 0.1 U
🇩🇪 St Pauli / M'gladbach DRAW (+245) — risk 0.3 U
🇩🇪 Union Berlin / Wolfsburg DRAW (+235) — risk 0. 2U
🇫🇷 Reims / Strasbourg DRAW (+250) — risk 0.2 U
Totals:
🏴 Fulham / Liverpool OVER 2.5 (-127) — risk 0.2 U
🇮🇹 Roma / Juventus UNDER 2.5 (-150) — risk 0.3 U
🇫🇷 Reims / Strasbourg UNDER 2.5 (-115) — risk 0.2 U
🇩🇪 St Pauli / M'gladbach OVER 2.5 (-120) — risk 0.2 U
Intel system: weekend soccer plays
Friday plays:
⚽️🇮🇹 Genoa / Udinese UNDER 2 (-122) — risk 0.2 U
⚽️🇮🇹 Genoa / Udinese DRAW (+200) —risk 0.3 U
⚽️🇫🇷 Nice / Nantes DRAW (+380) — risk 0.2 U
I'll drop Saturday & Sunday plays in the next postЧитать полностью…
MAVERICKS O/U BREAKDOWN
* These graphs show the performance of betting the OVERs in Mavericks' games since 2021 *
Mavericks have been on a hell of a OVERs run (10-1 L11 to the OVER). Will they go on? Let's see:
Graph 1: overall, Mavs are 17-28 to the OVER on Monday (37.8% win rate, -27% ROI). Mavs are 33-42 to the OVER after last game went OVER (44% win rate, -16% ROI).
Graph 2: best scenarios for Mavs UNDERS: home / away fav + home underdog + Mon/Wed/Fri. Mondays: 12-23 (34.3% win rate, -34.5% ROI). Coming off 2 overs: 3-8 (27% win rate, -48% ROI).
Mavs are facing Nets today who are 33-42 to the OVER this season and 15-21 as away to the OVER.
My intel suggests the UNDER is a decent play today. Will it cash?
👍 — UNDER
👎 — OVER
Breakdowns stats:Читать полностью…
NHL: 3-0
NBA: 0-1
MLB: 0-1
🚨 Announcement from @realdeal666:
I tried and I failed. I am killing the Intel system.
Won't blame bad luck. It must be my fault and wrong approach. Sucks that it's been working so well for the first 2 months and everything fell apart after I thought it was worth adding to the paid section.
Kold's system is still the only sustainable system I've seen love it or hate it. Even after being down on the month he still managed to profit.
I'm still be helping Kold with everything I can, we're still partners, it's all good.
From now on I will focus on intel itself: trends, breakdowns, interesting angles. All that will be posted on the free page. Might keep the soccer system going, it's been alright.
Kold offered next month free for everyone who joined us so if you still haven't join the channel for April plays, dm me @realdeal666 or Kold @koldishot
If you have any questions or want to tell me something feel free to message me @realdeal666
We've just been debating about Kold's (/channel/martingalemania) unit system in our chat and I wanted to discuss how average bettors percept cappers and their unit profit measures.
Let's imagine a situtation:
an average Joe is scrolling his Twitter feed and sees a dickbutt capper who yells "I aM Up 25,000 uNiTs in 2025".
"Woahhh u see those units. I should definitely sign up! Surely I will become a millionaire" though Joe
Little did Joe know that dickbutt's average bet size is 10000 units.
Cappers always find a way to manipulate their stats. I've been noticing it pretty much every day for a few years now. But some of you are not as experienced so let me tell you: 99% of cappers lie and won't tell you the true stats. 99% of them don't track any stats. Majority of those who publicly track their stats do it through Action app where it is easy to fake stats.
Anyways, I'm digressing.
Even if you find a capper that has his stats tracked, UNITS are not as important as RETURN ON INVESTMENT aka ROI.
Scamdicappers set a trend to show off units, or profit which is even more misleading. Because this way it is easier to get your attention. Who doesn't like money?
(I know many good cappers. But here I'm talking about dudes who usually sell their shit for $1000 / day, etc.)
Sports betting is not a $ game, it’s a % game. The most efficient way to measure cappers expertise is by ROI. Too bad most of those scamdicappers are idiots and don't know what it is.
So, back to Kold's system. He was talking about how his base bet is just 0.05 units so he wanted to multiply it so that people pay more attention. But does it really matter? His ROI is ELITE: 11% ROI across 500+ plays since 1/1/25 and 17 units profit.
0.05 unit sounds like a nickel but it doesn't matter as long as the system is sustainable and profitable.
I think, there is no problem in Kold's system and 0.05 units is fine. The problem is in the current environment of the sports handicapping business where "cappers" are just greedy bastards who inflate units lol.
Favorites are 5-0 this NHL playoffs so far. Last year favorites got off to a 6-0 start (they played on weekend too), but on Monday 2 underdogs won.
Maybe we'll see something similar this time.
Favs are 156-92 SU this month. But there was some underdogs recently.
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4/19 Intel MLB
Royals ML +115
Dbacks ML +100
Pirates ML -165
Yankees ML +105
Padres ML -108
Padres / Astros UNDER 7.5 -105
Cardinals ML +170
Cardinals / Mets UNDER 8.5 -105
MLB favorites stay dominant:
62.55% SU so far
+11.09 Units flat betting all favorites
+23.89 Units betting to win 1U on each favorite
MLB Favorites are 27-9 SU on Fridays 👀
5-1 yesterday, 12-1 over the last 3 days.
Actually bet all plays yesterday. My face: 🙂
Anyways. Today's plays:
Marlins ML (+135)
Marlins / Dbacks Under 8.5 (-110)
Orioles ML (+100)
Not sure if I want to bet these today. But good luck if you're tailing.
4/16
2 sweeps in a row. Nice 👌
Going for the third 👇
Cardinals ML (-103)
Twins ML (-115)
Twins / Mets UNDER 8 (-105)
Padres / Cubs UNDER 7.5 (-105)
Guardians / Orioles UNDER 8 (-110)
Dbacks ML (-140)
SOCCER DRAWS:
🇪🇸 Spain:
Getafe / Las Palmas DRAW (+250) — risk 0.3 U
🏴 EPL:
Manchester City / Crystal Palace DRAW (+360) — risk 0.1 U
Brighton / Leicester DRAW (+480) — risk 0.2 U
Chelsea / Ipswich DRAW (+540) — risk 0.1 U
🇫🇷 Ligue 1:
Toulouse / Lille DRAW (+230) — risk 0.4 U
🇮🇹 Serie A:
Atalanta / Bologna DRAW (+250) — risk 0.1 U
Verona / Genoa DRAW (+195) — risk 0.1 U
🇩🇪 Bundesliga:
Frankfurt / Heidenheim DRAW (+320) — risk 0.2 U
Stuttgart / Bremen DRAW (+350) — risk 0.2 U
Borussia Monchengladbach / Freiburg DRAW (+265) — risk 0.05 U
🇺🇸 MLS:
Montreal / Charlotte DRAW (+245) — risk 0.05 U
Friday Intel soccer system plays
DRAWS
🇮🇹 Udinese / Milan DRAW +265 — risk 0.4 U
🇪🇸 Valencia / Sevilla DRAW +220 — risk 0.1 U
🇫🇷 Lens / Reims DRAW +330 — risk 0.1 U
Saturday & Sunday plays will be posted later
Good soccer weekend.
Testing MLB on paper for now, not posting it. Might start posting once soccer season is over. Unless it crashes out again 😂
DODGERS -1.5 WILL FEED FAMILIES
Been hearing this ^ since the start of the season. But Dodgers -1.5 has been profitable over the past 2 seasons (including alt lines when they are underdogs too). And they are 7-4 this season.
25-7 on Mondays
55-36 coming off 1 L (30% ROI)
This includes Dodgers -1.5 no matter if they are favorites or underdogs.
Dodgers -1.5 is -110 today against the Nationals. Will they cover? 👀
👍 — Dodgers will cover -1.5
👎 — Nationals will cover +1.5 🙄
Saturday:
Draws
🏴 Crystal Palace / Brighton DRAW (+240) — risk 0.2 U
🇪🇸 Real Madrid / Valencia DRAW (+500) — risk 0.1 U
🇫🇷 Lyon / Lille DRAW (+260) — risk 0.2 U
🇺🇸 Atlanta / Dallas DRAW (+300) — risk 0.05U
Totals
🇩🇪 Mainz / Kiel UNDER 3 (-112) — risk 0.1 U
🇺🇸 New York / Chicago UNDER 2.5 (-105) — risk 0.1 U
🇺🇸 Atlanta / Dallas OVER 3 (-116) — risk 0.2 U
🇺🇸 Charlotte / Nashville OVER 2.5 (-128) — risk 0.1 U
Add: 🇪🇸 Barcelons / Betis UNDER 3.5 (-120) — risk 0.2 U
EPL Midweek ⚽️
Brighton / Aston Villa under 2.5 (-102) — risk 0.2 U ❌
Southampton / Crystal Palace DRAW (+320) — risk 0.1 U ✅
Chelsea / Tottenham DRAW (+360) — risk 0.1 U (tomorrow)
Weekend had some nice and profitable overs/unders but none of the draws cashed
It had to be done 🫡
Kold's approach is working, no point in changing anything. My approach was most likely flawed from the beginning even though it was looking so promising.
I will focus only on Intel and helping Kold. Seems like the breakdowns are doing ok. Expect another one within 30 minutes
Padres are off to a 3-0 start against the Braves. Won twice as underdogs and once as favorites.
Padres are 9-16 coming off 3 straight wins. (36% win rate, -35% ROI). Padres are 24-29 on Sundays (45% win rate, -21.3% ROI). Padres 77-58 as home favorites but the ROI is still -9.5% due to juiced average odds.
Will Braves (+110) avoid a sweep today?
👍 — Braves win
👎 — Padres win
