#KOLDINTEL
JUNE 28 2024
1️⃣ | ⚾️ | cardinals ML | -130 | to win 0.4 U
🤠Highest public concentrations...
🏈 CFL: Montreal - Montreal/Toronto OVER
🏀 WNBA: Connecticut - LA Sparks/Phoenix OVER
⚾️ MLB: NY Yankees - Texas/Baltimore OVER
⚠️These are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.⚠️
Yesterday was all about soccer: Pitch Invasion and MoneyLong swept, Bosh Bets cashed the big play. Overs in Copa also cashed like I predicted.
MLB was ass. Many cappers were square and they paid for it. However, The Pick Don who was on a losing streak is heating back up!
🥇🆕 FiveStar ➕108.9%
🥈🆕Bosh Bets ➕37.2%
🥉Pitch Invasion ➕32.7%🧹🧹🧹
Trust My System ➕31.2%
🆕ScuzzLocks ➕27.1%
🆕DropShot ➕19.1%
The Baseball Lab ➕18.8%
LawkeItUp ➕10.6%
SportsBettingCoach ➕9.5%
Smart Money Sports ➕7.5%🧹🧹🧹🧹🧹
🆕T-REX picks ➕6.3%
🆕 Bass Picks ➕5.3%
Analytics Capper ➕2.5%
NHLONEBET ➕2.2%
🆕Prop Bully ➕1.8%
🆕 MoneyLong ➖ 1.1%🧹🧹
PorterPicks ➖ 5.2%
Antares ➖ 7.0%
VIP4FREE ➖ 8.0%
🆕Ghidorah SI ➖ 9.5%
MoneyDuckBets ➖ 9.7%
Pardon My Pick ➖ 11.5%
NBAONEBET ➖ 14.2%
Cody Covers➖ 18.4%
DuckInvestments ➖ 30.5%
🆕Golden Gamblers ➖ 31.5%
StoneCold ➖ 31.9%
ThePickDon ➖ 42.6% 🧹🧹
🔌 Free picks | 🔬 Main channel | 👨💻 DM me with any questions | 👀 Paid content recaps | 💰 Sign up for paid content | 📈 Spreadsheets
#KOLDINTEL
JUNE 27 2024
1️⃣ | ⚾️ | yankees mL | -135 | TO WIN 0.4 U
10 units this month like promised 😎Читать полностью…
Yesterday I talked about a capper, today let's talk about a BET TYPE — OVERS/UNDERS.
Why's that? 🤔
Well, firstly, most cappers tend to better with totals rather than money line picks / spreads. Secondly, I have some stats that might provoke some thoughts.
Let's start with MLB ⚾️
We are tracking plays against the covers.com contestants (againstthecrowd). This season this scheme is not working as we would like it to and so far we have a record of 47-42 and -0.35 units (only talking about over/under picks here). But let's look at the big picture:
Over the past 2.5 seasons (including this season), stats are 261-208 (55.6%) - I think that's what the average is in MLB with the predominance of UNDERS.
Now let's turn to NFL 🏈
Over the past 2 seasons, betting AGAINST the top consensus play Covers contestants would've been 71-51 (58.2% of the time they were wrong, most of the times they were picking OVER). And overall last season 128 games went OVER, 157 - UNDER: 55.1%. Again we observe the superiority of UNDERS.
And now let's look at Soccer, as there are two major tournaments - Copa and Euro - going on right now, here it's more relevant than ever.
Euro 2024 ⚽️
Here I have already predicted the 3rd round of the group stage to be low scoring (here's proof; it's also a good example of how cappers can be of help when assessing games). In fact, 8/10 games stayed UNDER the projected totals. Some more numbers:
Group stage 2024: 22 unders vs 14 overs (61% of games stayed under).
Playoffs 2020 (2021 cuz of covid): 7 overs vs 8 unders - not much of a discrepancy, however...
However you can expect game days that will not see a lot of goals! For example, after a game day with two games that went OVER the total you can expect UNDERS, usually in the matchups where an average bettor would not expect it at all.
Same thing applies to Copa America ⚽️
Group stage 2024: 8 unders vs 4 overs (66% under)
Group stage 2021: 12 unders vs 8 overs (I must add, there was a different system of distribution of teams in groups - 2 groups of 6 teams; this season there are North America teams in Copa)
This simple stat suggests that there should be some regression in the Copa matches and we can expect more high-scoring games. It's like the opposite of the Euros. We'll see if I am right or not.
And even if my predictions about Euro / Copa don't come true, I hope that some of you will develop a greater interest in numbers in terms of stats rather than the numbers that cappers show you on their bet slips. Use your brains 🧠
One early lesson I learned from a mentor was to always look first at underdogs and unders.
Starting off with a farewell to TylersMindset. Formally, he would've been the second capper in the list - but this was achieved by going all in 3 times. Covering it all with unit system - I doubt he was doing the same himself, let alone anyone else tailing his picks. You just don't do that.
We have a similar situation with Sports Betting Coach - 50% per play, but at least he's doing 1-2 plays a day and win rate is decent, there is logic behind the plays and most importantly there are results - but still I can't 100% recommend such an approach either.
Soccer cappers however did great yesterday. For example, Pitch Invasion won over 4 units yesterday only risking 2 units. Bosh Bets also gets a win after a win, however there is a technical difficulty - his picks are on Bet365 only. But still it's a good option.
The choice is up to you.
🥇🆕 FiveStar ➕120.9%
🥈Trust My System ➕59.6%
🥉SportsBettingCoach ➕29.5%
🆕Bosh Bets ➕29.2%
🆕ScuzzLocks ➕25.3%
Pitch Invasion ➕21.5%
🆕DropShot ➕19.1%
The Baseball Lab ➕18.8%
LawkeItUp ➕10.6%
🆕T-REX picks ➕6.3%
🆕 Bass Picks ➕4.1%
Analytics Capper ➕2.5%
NHLONEBET ➕2.2%
🆕Prop Bully ➕1.8%
Cody Covers➕0.1%
Smart Money Sports ➖ 3.5%
🆕Ghidorah SI ➖ 4.5%
PorterPicks ➖ 4.9%
🆕 MoneyLong ➖ 5.2%
Pardon My Pick ➖ 6.4%
Antares ➖ 7.0%
VIP4FREE ➖ 8.0%
MoneyDuckBets ➖ 9.7%
NBAONEBET ➖ 18.6%
DuckInvestments ➖ 24.3%
🆕Golden Gamblers ➖ 26.5%
StoneCold ➖ 41.9%
ThePickDon ➖ 49.4%
🔌 Free picks | 🔬 Main channel | 👨💻 DM me with any questions | 👀 Paid content recaps | 💰 Sign up for paid content | 📈 Spreadsheets
Do we need cappers like this?
I was thinking of this capper #BBB (bigger bettor bets) whose picks we had for 3 months.
On the one hand, you see the graphs are green and that's good, the capper was profitable (although I doubt anyone was tailing all his picks).
On the other hand, he had a lot of picks: 5-8 plays daily (and it could be ok but not for our subscription where we have a lot of picks tracked, one play a day type of cappers is perfect). Moreover, if you look into the whales (second screenshot), odds weren't great: -123 average odds. Given the 57% win rate, ROI was only 1.5% - on every $100 bet you'd get $1.5 profit - not much to say the least. And also the rollercoasters on the graph - he wasn't consistent.
Overall this wasn't a bad option but to get the most out of it you'd have to stick with all plays to get profit (and non-whale plays were more profitable by the way). And considering the price ($200 / month or so) I'd say this option would not suit everyone.
P.S. We also had a similar capper in the free picks channel - Porter Picks. I wasn't tracking him in details but their dynamics and volume of picks are very similar. But Porter Picks was 3 times less expensive.
#KOLDINTEL
JUNE 26 2024
1️⃣ | ⚾️ | braves game 1 mL | -120 | TO WIN 1 U
#MLBTrends
Cubs / Giants UNDER 8 (-105) | 1U
#KOLDINTEL
JUNE 25 2024
1️⃣ | ⚾️ | phillies mL | -120 | TO WIN 0.4 U
We are practically one on one with MLB now. Occasional soccer and tennis will make these days a bit sweeter. What's the plan for the next couple months:
Again, I went over the cappers and updated the cheat sheet (what's the cheat sheet about: /channel/cappers_journal/4881). I don't know the future, but I have the numbers, and this should be be enough for the upcoming month.
I will start paying more attention to cappers' streaks. In MLB, cappers' streaks are pretty lengthy (recent PP's 12-0 run, YDC's 14-0 run, Fivestar's 13-0 run) — all these cappers with detailed stats on all sports and MLB only are also included in the paid content.
I think we're ready to take on MLB. Baseball summer vibes are ensured in our chat for subscribers 🫂
So if you want to join us, last chance to get the summer special:
❗️ USE PROMO "PANTHERS" AT THE CHECKOUT FOR $50 OFF! 🐆
SIGN UP: https://cappersintel.com/
(don't forget to send me a screenshot of payment 🤝 @realdeal666)
New leader! #trustmysystem lost a bunch of units on the Oilers, but #fivestar was there to extend his winning streak! I hope you took advantage of it. Also, #scuzzlocks hopped into the top-3 - indeed breakthrough of the month.
Bosh Bets has been doing really well after a cold start, Bass Picks is now in the green thanks to a sweep (he's getting hot now so I'd pay attention to his picks), NHLONEBET had a great ending to the season with the big play on the UNDER (many other cappers were right too going against the public).
🥇🆕 FiveStar ➕108.2%
🥈Trust My System ➕86.4%
🥉🆕ScuzzLocks ➕30.0%
LawkeItUp ➕25.6%
🆕DropShot ➕19.7%
🆕Bosh Bets ➕16.2%
Antares ➕11.0%
DuckInvestments ➕10.7%
The Baseball Lab ➕8.8%
Cody Covers➕8.4%
🆕T-REX picks ➕6.3%
🆕 Bass Picks ➕5.4%🧹🧹
Analytics Capper ➕2.5%
NHLONEBET ➕2.2%
🆕Prop Bully ➕1.8%
Pitch Invasion ➕0.3%
PorterPicks ➖ 2.7%
🆕Ghidorah SI ➖ 3.1%
🆕 MoneyLong ➖ 4.8%
VIP4FREE ➖ 5.3%
Pardon My Pick ➖ 8.7%
MoneyDuckBets ➖ 9.7%
SportsBettingCoach ➖ 11.5%
🆕Golden Gamblers ➖ 11.5%
Smart Money Sports ➖ 13.5%
NBAONEBET ➖ 18.6%
StoneCold ➖ 19.4%
ThePickDon ➖ 32.6%
🆕 TylersMindset ➖ 61.4%
🔌 Free picks | 🔬 Main channel | 👨💻 DM me with any questions | 👀 Paid content recaps | 💰 Sign up for paid content | 📈 Spreadsheets
#KOLDINTEL
JUNE 24 2024
1️⃣ | ⚾️ | cardinals mL | +100 | TO WIN 0.4 U
🤠Highest public concentrations...
⚾️ MLB: San Diego - PHI/DET OVER
🏒 NHL: Edmonton (very small) - OVER (large)
⚠️These are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.⚠️
Not many cappers concentrations today. There's a lot of games today. However, cappers seem to like Blue Jays, Red Sox and especially Brewers today... Although after yesterday I think we can have a bit of squareness in our veins 🤠
Читать полностью…
Like I said, yesterday went horrible for most cappers - underdogs were all over the place in the MLB 🐶
Paid content still was close to breaking even:
— Cheat sheet plays went 2-2
— Additional highlighted plays went 2-2
— The system went 0-1
Full recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Copa America
🇵🇦 Panama vs USA 🇺🇸
⭐️⭐️ Panama to score (1.92) - RISK 0.5 UNIT✅
🇺🇾 Uruguay vs Bolivia 🇧🇴
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Over 2.5 goals (1.79) - RISK 1 UNIT✅
Federico Valverde to score (3.20) - TO WIN 1 UNIT✅
On a side note, cappers decided to be squares today...
First, it was mostly Twins and Cubs (both favorites). Now more action coming in on Phillies, Orioles, Yankees and Cardinals.
Seems too easy, doesn't it?🤠
#MLBTrends
Twins ML (-110) | 1U
Free picks posted here just in case: t.me/betting_intel
Orioles were the move, Yankees were a trap.
Cheat sheet plays went 2-1: Orioles make up for the Rangers loss; Sean Perry remains a good MLB fade material
The new bonus capper — NL — keeps smacking, extends run to 32-3.
You know I'm not a fan of chasing hot runs, but he's 4-1 last 5 days 🤷♂️ And I missed one make up play which also cashed.
The system took a loss again. Might remove this one capper for good - he became too inconsistent hitting 4-5 bet losing streaks this month.
Full recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Cheat sheet performance in June:
33-26 | 55.9% win rate | -110 (1.91) avg odds | 4.82% ROI (+2.82 units)
The system performance in June:
20-19 | 51.3% win rate | -112 (1.89) avg odds | -3.11% ROI (-1.27 units)
Cappers liked Braves since yesterday and they got a win. For the later games, cappers like Orioles even more as well as Yankees 😀😀
Читать полностью…
Fivestar keeps dropping the heat, cheat sheet play was a plus-money W, 30-3 source goes to 31-3 (but of course such a win rate can't go on forever sadly). Check out the full recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
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Not much exciting action today, it's pretty scattered across the slate. However, one angl seeming to stand out is Nationals on the money line.
Nationals opened as +130 underdogs and went all the way to -120 👀
🤠Highest public concentrations..
🏀WNBA: NY Liberty - Minnesota/NYL OVER
⚾️ MLB: Houston - NY Yankees/NY Mets OVER
⚠️These are not designed as fades...just showing where there is likely no value due to large levels of public betting.⚠️
We always have action for everyone!
Like I've been saying, our mission is to deliver as much quality info as we can to provide you with profits:
1. You can just blindly tail any cappers you like but it probably won't end very well.
2. You can tail the cheat sheet plays.
2.1. You can refer to the cheat sheet plays to assess plays on your own.
3. You can tail the system plays.
NHL Finals 🏒
We've seen consensus plays in this series, but not today. Strangely, there's not much action at all. However, one angle a bunch of cappers agree on is UNDER 5.5.
Public is heavy to OVER and light to Oilers.
What about cappers? It's like 60/40 in favor of the Oilers. Scuzzlocks has Panthers, he's been quite well with NHL. TMS POM is Oilers ML, his 5U plays have been good too... A coin toss! Plays posted here btw just in case: /channel/betting_intel
Good luck in whatever you're betting!
#againstthecrowd
Tigers ML +150 (3-9 on Mondays)
Nationals / Padres UNDER 8.5 -120 (7-5 on Mondays)
Surprisingly a great weekend for most cappers!
— #thesystem went 2-0 but nothing else to highlight here
Full paid content recap 👉 /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
— #yourdailycapper and #fivestar continued their winning streaks (14-0 and 9-0), #KOLDINTEL system is now 7-0. The 29-2 capper lost with Dbacks TT o3.5. Overall a solid weekend.
Sign up for the paid content here 👉 /channel/betting_intel
