3-star play was a winner again, 2-star play was a loser. Like I said I'll just track these plays for the rest of the month and then decide what is worth keeping and what's worth getting rid of.
Shit ton of trends today.
3-star plays are 7-1 so far. All three 3-star plays are in the NBA today. All previous ones were NHL plays. 5-star plays are 2-0 and there's two of them today. We'll see how it goes.
Totals are going just fine, I like it. I even like most of the picks that come up with these trends.
Not much action today, so just two plays. Enjoying what we have.
⭐️⭐️ Stars / Maple Leafs UNDER 6
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Wild / Panthers OVER 6
Also added stats on Twolves and want to get NHL to 10 teams too so will most likely add Avalanche and Lightning. That'll be enough for now. Or will it?
Now the NBA Cup.
Look, I suck at handicapping, I don't hide that. But I'm not lazy when it comes to crunching numbers and stuff. I dug up some stats for Bucks. I really liked them to win it all since the quarterfinals but when I saw the numbers I changed my mind.
Bucks are the worst ATS team as underdog since 2021. They covered the spread as underdogs just 16/53 times. When Bucks are underdogs, UNDERS are hitting 34/54 times.
No point in looking at home/away since this game is played in Vegas.
But there's an interesting trend: Darvin Ham is undefeated (13-0) in NBA Cup.
My lean is Bucks but that's just a lean. Firstly I'd see what cappers have then make my move.
I only have the NBA Cup finals today on my mind and I want to see what cappers are playing today.
TMS is 11-2 with NBA picks this month.
PickzHub's NBA picks are 44-29 (60%) and 25-16 on Tuesdays (61%)
Duck Investments on a 2-0 run — 31-48 coming off 2 wins. Might be a good fade. We'll see.
NBA Cup breakdown later.
Good luck!
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Ok maybe Falcons was the move after all. Vegas Ninja is somehow very good with NFL spreads. Bears was never the move though.
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Here's 3 trends for today that I found.
Obviously, Raiders ATS looks ugly af and obviously these trends do not take all their injuries into consideration. But historically Falcons are one of the worst ATS teams: 25-40 L65 as favorite and 26-37 L63 as a road team.
Now about the NHL game. I think this one is worth a bet right away.
NHL has been mostly about UNDERs recently. And public consensus picks (from covers.com) have been wrong 8 times in a row. There once was an 0-8 run during the 2-year span of tracking and it snapped on the 9th play. Overall if you look at the long-term stats, the win rate is about 50% (250-254). Sundays see slightly more overs.
Anyways, today's "public consensus" play is Buffalo / Toronto over 6. I'm taking it for half unit. In case it loses I might double down tomorrow.
3-star plays are good, 2-star plays are not good. Still need more data! I'm very interested in how the 5-star play will do (Steelers/Eagles under 43).
There's also a couple other interesting trends (NHL & NFL). I'll break it down a bit later.
Nice Saturday filled with a few solid setups
There was Bucks -3.5, OKC -5.5 and Avalanche 3-way ML. The start aligned and the suggested plays cashed. Other cappers did well too. Bread Head’s juicy UFC parlay cashed to improve his record to 23-2 👏
Sunday is Sunday, you know my attitude. But maybe I’ll find something worth betting.
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Mira is coming off 4 wins in the NBA and is 8-1 in these setups. And there's TMS who is 9-1 in the NBA this month. Both have Bucks spread.
LC is coming off 5 losses, 3-0 in these setups. His play is OKC -5.5.
Personally did Bucks -3.5 for a unit. Good luck if you're tailing!
Saturday. UFC. Bowl games.
Cappers mostly screwed up yesterday which was kind of anticipated (Fridays are the worst day I'll keep saying that).
But we have TMS who tops the ranking of free cappers. 9-1 NBA run in December. Solid. Trends:
TBSB's picks are 24-14 coming off 2 losses.
Analytics Capper's POTDs are 34-46 coming off 1 win with -13% ROI. 18-22 on Saturdays.
🤓 More trends and better variety of solid cappers are in the paid. You can just blindly
More interesting trends is in our premium. And of course there is a variety of solid cappers, which you can just blindly tail. And there's our chat with the masterminds of sports betting 👀
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PickzHub was wrong — everyone had 49ers. But Scuzz had Rams and his TNF picks move to 10-3 this season. Scuzz's picks might be a good move today: 16% ROI across 136 picks on Fridays. Porter Picks >=5U plays are on 0-5 run + he's good on Fridays.
Gut feeling take: PickzHub will hit a losing streak.
Friday is the worst day for betting anyways, so I'll chill today. Good luck!
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Solid “primetime under” start to the game
Guys from the chat are all hyped up
Rangers respect the coin. Let's see how these three will do:
Kings / Devils under 6
Golden Knights ML
Rams / 49ers UNDER 49
Again, I do not suggest betting nor do I tail these myself. Trying to see if all this can make sense so need to track to have some data
Two specific examples:
Pardon My Pick's NBA picks & Fivestar's NCAAB picks. Two fairly lengthy leagues with games going on almost every day (unlike the NFL and NCAAF).
PMP hangs around 50% win rate in the NBA. Fivestar is sub 50% in the NCAAB.
And both are doing well on Wednesdays which also turns out to be the best day of the week in the 15k-picks sample.
Maybe Wednesday is the day when books are sleepy and they forget to "set traps" 😁
Or maybe it's all just a huge coincidence.
I doubt there's an answer. But I find it interesting.
Open to debate 👉 @realdeal666
The top-5 cappers from the list are doing well:
TMS is on a 12-2 NBA run
Prof Locks is 26-15 with TNF picks
TBSB is on a 5-0 run
Vegas Ninja: 64-35 NFL
Choose what you like. I'll also post team trends (/channel/cappers_journal/6539) as usual, all stats are tracked as always, so far so good.
Good luck!
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PickzHub is a tough guy considering he's mostly doing parlays and staying at a good win rate. He's coming off 3 wins now, more often he loses than wins in these spots: 10-14 (41.6%).
TMS is still hot with NBA: 12-2 run.
Prof Locks has an interesting spot for what it's worth: ML picks on Wednesdays are 9-1 (totals on Tuesdays are now 17-3 after Bucks/OKC under cashed). Take it with a grain of salt. I don't see how bet types and days of the week can correlate but the numbers are out there.
Vegas Ninja, like I usually say, is not great with NBA picks. Giannis could not get 30 points.
Team Trends (/channel/cappers_journal/6535) outplayed all cappers by going 2-0 with two unders. Hope they keep hitting at the same win rate.
Good luck!
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Trends.
Yesterday should've been 1-1-1
4-star play Raiders spread should've been a push since the spread closed at 6 but will count it as a loss anyways.
I like the 3-star plays more and more — yesterday it was a blowout win with Oilers / Panthers scoring 11 total goals.
2-star play Sacramento Kings -1.5 was a hell of a rollercoaster — came back from down 21, had a 10-point lead, still lost.
"Big" plays today (I'm still not betting them)
Unders in two NHL games. Of course I like 5-star play, this is a good bet in my opinion, and it is logical. Kings / Penguins under is an ugly bet in my opinion, but I don't come up with the numbers on my own. I post whatever I see on the scale.
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Hurricanes / Islanders UNDER 6
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Penguins / Kings UNDER 6
Analytics plays went 1-1 pregame but 2-0 for me and all who were patient to grab a live bet on the Heat ✅
Recaps: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
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NHL was good, NBA was ok, NFL… I don’t even bother looking at it
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TMS keeps surprising me. In a good way. Just like Cody and Smart Money Sports whose picks I forgot to post yesterday. The rest of cappers are a good part of the fade parade.
I've got two trends for you today:
Porter Picks (>=5U): 24-8 on Mondays
TBSB coming of 2 wins: 15-27
But still I wouldn't be too hyped about TMS — his MNF picks are 15-16. Basically you have a 50% chance of winning if you tail him. Same as tossing a coin.
PickzHub, however, is 38-24 with NFL picks overall, but just 7-7 on Monday Night Football. Same coin flip. But at least he has an overall-positive winning record with NFL picks.
Who else? Maybe the same Cody Covers will pick a winner today. He is 12-3 with ML picks & 14-5 with Totals on Monday Night Football. Spreads are just 7-8. Don't ask me how and why. I just tell you the numbers.
And I'll also have my team trends posted here (/channel/cappers_journal) as always. The first-ever 5-star play was a winner with Eagles / Steelers under 43. 3-star plays are also doing pretty well. 2-stay plays are shabby. Might get rid of them if they stay hanging around 50% win rate by the end of the month.
Good luck in your action today!
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A couple thoughts on the Lions / Bills game
Lions ATS: 31-19 as favs, 62-43 on Sundays. Bills are 35-24 ATS as away team. If some decent cappers pick Lions it might be a play for me. So for 60/40 in favor of Lions.
Totals are interesting here too. Bills are 5-0 L5 to the OVER. Never been more than 5 overs in a row since 2017. But Lions at home = OVER (40-23 since 2017).
Not sure to expect from the cappers now. Sundays are usually pretty whack after good Saturdays, NFL is always a shitshow. My fade contenders: TMS, Duck Investments, Sean Perry. Be seein'.
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Bucks -3.5 was a winner for me and the team today. Really like the setup on OKC -5.5 but I’m chickening out. So decided to share with everyone. GL!
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2-1 yesterday. 3-star plays are 3-0. Decent tendency. Hope these trends keep it the same way and if we have a 60% win rate over a decent chuck of plays it'll be a goldmine.
Also including the NFL picks for tomorrow. There's the first 5-star play. Let's see how it goes. Will most likely start with a loser like always but who knows 🤪
That was a nice 3-0 progression for the trends yesterday but still to early to draw any conclusion.
One NHL under today in the Hurricanes game. Lakers on average do not cover in away games and games mostly go over.
Also compiled NFL sheets so I'll have NFL trends too.
Whenever you discover some trend it just immediately stops working. Happens all the time.
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There's an interesting TNF trend over the last 7 games:
Game goes over the total = underdog covers
Games stays under the total = favorite covers
And what's more interesting, this trend happens every other game the last 7 weeks:
10/24: Rams (underdog vs Vikings, won outright) covered + over
10/31: Jets (favorite vs Texans) covered + under
11/7: Bengals (underdog vs Ravens) covered + over
11/14: Eagles (favorite vs Commanders) covered + under
11/21: Browns (underdog vs Steelers, won outright) covered + over
11/28: Packers (favorite vs Dolphins) covered + under
12/5: Packers (underdog vs Lions) covered + over
Paid content had a juicy day as most relied upon cappers did very well. Free stuff was not so great — Knicks really lost to the Hawks ☠️ and I thought PickzHub had a lock of the day parlay. Hope today will be better. I want everyone to win.
For today:
Prof Locks — 26-14 NFL on Thursdays.
Vegas Ninja — 26-25 coming off 2 losses but knowing he loves juice it's all bad bad — -12.8% ROI. NFL is good though. NBA picks are bad.
Sean Perry coming off 2 losses is 14-19; 21-23 NCAAB.
PickzHub: 44-29 coming off 1 L and 35-31 with cross-sports parlays. Good when he bets against most other cappers' NFL picks.
Good luck!
Rest of intel — in the paid 🫢
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Decided to ponder more on the correlation between capper results and days of the week. I know it's hard to believe that on certain days cappers perform worse or better and I'm sometimes skeptical about it too. And most likely we won't get a clear answer on this, but we can understand one thing.
On weekdays, cappers show better results than on weekends. That's probably because on weekends (Friday through Sunday), books get more public action. I don't really like the "books set traps" phrase but that might be it.
15k tracked picks sample proves this point.
