Yesterday was money. Everything I told you worked just right. Leave a like or something if it helped you 🤝
Today I am stingy though 🥸 You'll get used to the free stuff and won't purchase my paid subscription with tons of valuable info, cappers, stats and community of goats 😭
ok, briefly about today:
Don't fade the cappers from the top of the list (TMS, PickzHub, TBSB, Vegas Ninja)
Sean Perry is in another good fade spot: 2-7 coming off 5 wins + bad at NFL
Although I would think twice before tailing TMS's NFL picks today... Just my two cents tho. He's hot af this month.
Good luck!
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Cappers said it was the biggest sports day of the year yesterday. And they were not wrong. Good execution from most cappers in the paid.
Recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Trends did 50/50 yesterday. Today there's a 6-star play.
I did not expect it tbh but there's just too much lining up on this play. All trends are pointing towards the UNDER in the Ravens / Steelers game. I don't like it but we'll see.
And then I had this thought: why 3-unit (stars) plays perform best? 1-2 units are low-confidence plays, there's not many trends lining up on them. 4-5 unit plays have too many trends lining up on them and such overlapping might result in some deviation from the trend. And 3 units is like a golden middle. I think they'll be the way to go.
Admin's Friday talk.
Indeed Knights / Jets stayed UNDER. But today I'm bringing not a pick but some sTaTs 🤓
So, public betting intel, betting picture, etc. has become a popular topic lately. Especially in the NFL. What public is betting, how much money is public betting and so on.
I started tracking pretty much the same thing (without bets/handles of course, I'm not working for the book) a few years ago. Started off with MLB when cappers were doing extremely bad. Thought that cappers are mortal humans, and it would be a good idea to fade them (hence the #againstthecrowd tag). But I needed some consistency with selecting the angles worth fading. So I went over to covers consensus and started tracking top public consensus plays. It worked well that season. But now let's talk about NFL and public betting.
Gathered NFL stats from Covers consensus since 2017. And what can 7 years of data tell us?
1. FADING top public totals is more profitable — 58.4% win rate vs 54.3% fading spreads (still not too bad — 54% win rate across 7 years is GOOD!)
2. The best day of the week for FADING the public — Sunday.
3. Worst month for public (best for fading) is January — the start of playoffs. December is also pretty bad but this year public is feasting. (Should we expect some public regression soon?)
Overall 56.39% win rate across nearly 900 picks given odds are -110 (1.91) most of the time is SOLID AF.
I deliver intel. You use it. Or don't use it. Do whatever you want with it 🥸
🔌 Free picks | 🔬 Main channel | 👨💻 DM me with any questions
Like I said, the cappers from the upper part are doing well. Gotta know when to change the tune right?
TMS is a money-printing machine: 11-0 L11, 13-2 NBA run. 19-10 on Fridays.
Vegas Ninja: not great on Fridays. Might fade if he picks NBA today.
Prof Locks: not great either; PODs are 20-32 on Fridays.
TBSB: 6-0 run; 1-1 coming off 6 wins.
Duck Investments: down bad, fade material.
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The magic of reverse jinx ✅
At the halftime I was cursing all cappers for picking Chargers
🚨 CAPPERS CONSENSUS:
NFL: CHARGERS ML
Consensus is 160-154-5 overall since we started tracking it:
NCAAF: 12-13-2
NBA: 37-31-1
NFL: 14-16-1
MLB: 59-42
NHL: 8-14
BOXING/UFC: 1-4
NCAAB: 32-34-1
SOCCER: 0-1
Cappers consensus is the plays I track whenever I see a lot of cappers on the same side. I don’t make these picks, I only track them.
Some more stats & sheets 🤓
Look, there's been mostly unders this season in the NHL lately (228-249 (52.2% TO THE UNDER) this season overall).
So, another game I'm expecting to stay under the total apart from the games listed in the team trends sheet is Canucks / Golden Knights
Public trends (from covers.com) — 41% on Thursdays; 15-35 L50; 62-70 (46.9%) coming off 1 win.
If I had to put it on the scale it'd be a 2-star play so not much confidence in it.
Anyways, just sharing while I have some time while waiting for cappers.
3-star play was a winner again, 2-star play was a loser. Like I said I'll just track these plays for the rest of the month and then decide what is worth keeping and what's worth getting rid of.
Shit ton of trends today.
3-star plays are 7-1 so far. All three 3-star plays are in the NBA today. All previous ones were NHL plays. 5-star plays are 2-0 and there's two of them today. We'll see how it goes.
Totals are going just fine, I like it. I even like most of the picks that come up with these trends.
Not much action today, so just two plays. Enjoying what we have.
⭐️⭐️ Stars / Maple Leafs UNDER 6
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Wild / Panthers OVER 6
Also added stats on Twolves and want to get NHL to 10 teams too so will most likely add Avalanche and Lightning. That'll be enough for now. Or will it?
Now the NBA Cup.
Look, I suck at handicapping, I don't hide that. But I'm not lazy when it comes to crunching numbers and stuff. I dug up some stats for Bucks. I really liked them to win it all since the quarterfinals but when I saw the numbers I changed my mind.
Bucks are the worst ATS team as underdog since 2021. They covered the spread as underdogs just 16/53 times. When Bucks are underdogs, UNDERS are hitting 34/54 times.
No point in looking at home/away since this game is played in Vegas.
But there's an interesting trend: Darvin Ham is undefeated (13-0) in NBA Cup.
My lean is Bucks but that's just a lean. Firstly I'd see what cappers have then make my move.
I only have the NBA Cup finals today on my mind and I want to see what cappers are playing today.
TMS is 11-2 with NBA picks this month.
PickzHub's NBA picks are 44-29 (60%) and 25-16 on Tuesdays (61%)
Duck Investments on a 2-0 run — 31-48 coming off 2 wins. Might be a good fade. We'll see.
NBA Cup breakdown later.
Good luck!
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Ok maybe Falcons was the move after all. Vegas Ninja is somehow very good with NFL spreads. Bears was never the move though.
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Here's 3 trends for today that I found.
Obviously, Raiders ATS looks ugly af and obviously these trends do not take all their injuries into consideration. But historically Falcons are one of the worst ATS teams: 25-40 L65 as favorite and 26-37 L63 as a road team.
Now about the NHL game. I think this one is worth a bet right away.
NHL has been mostly about UNDERs recently. And public consensus picks (from covers.com) have been wrong 8 times in a row. There once was an 0-8 run during the 2-year span of tracking and it snapped on the 9th play. Overall if you look at the long-term stats, the win rate is about 50% (250-254). Sundays see slightly more overs.
Anyways, today's "public consensus" play is Buffalo / Toronto over 6. I'm taking it for half unit. In case it loses I might double down tomorrow.
And how EASY was Ohio State!!
Mumbo Jumbo nukenheimer lock of the century of the week 😤✅
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What about our favorite public betting?
According to covers consensus, the top consensus plays in the NFL are ...
Steelers +7 (60% of picks)
Texans / Chiefs OVER 42.5 (56%)
#againstthecrowd plays would be Ravens -7 and Texans / Chiefs UNDER 42.5
Firstly, public is doing bad on Saturdays. 18-36 with Saturday NFL plays (fades are 36-18 obviously) both totals and spreads combined.
Spreads:
Today's play is Steelers with points. According to my team trends it's also a good move. And fades are coming off 5 straight losses. Due for a win I guess. Not a move for me but something to look out for maybe.
Totals:
This one looks like a solid fade. Saturday totals are 8-20 (20-8 fades) + 66-44 coming off 1 loss with totals + team totals (both teams' games are low-scoring pretty much).
So from this brief assessment I can say that I like the UNDER in the KC / HOU game. I'll see what our respected and not so respected cappers have to say before making a final decision.
Friday is the worst day usually but yesterday cappers went off. Of course the ones who were doing good previously (and the ones from behind the paywall 👀). The ones at the bottom failed the test.
We've got all kinds of sports today. Well maybe just lacking UFC. But there's a big boxing bout — Usyk vs Fury. If Drake makes a move there you know the drill...
I think it's pretty clear who's worth fading and who's worth tailing.
Good entry points to fade:
Sean Perry: 3-9 coming off 4 losses
Analytics Capper: 7-13 coming off 3 losses
There's also TBSB with his longest ever 7-0 winning streak. Curious how it'll go.
TMS is on fire and he's been doing ok with rare Saturday NFL. PickzHub and Vegas Ninja might do ok too.
Good luck!
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Got caught up w stuff, so late update on trends
Yesterday was a stress test which went quite bad.
Not much trends today, two NHL totals and two NBA trends for the Cavs.
Personal play — Knicks +3.5 — ✅
Yes I faded a capper on an 8-0 run. What’re you gonna do to me 😤
Good. Thursday is second-best day for betting after Wednesday
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Buy low on Chargers, sell high on Broncos? Cappers' sentiment is all about Chargers today.
Should we unload all the coins on Chargers?
Added two more teams, now have 30 teams tracked, 10 from each league. There's already 8 trends for today so that should be a good sample. So far so good. Let's keep it going same way.
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The top-5 cappers from the list are doing well:
TMS is on a 12-2 NBA run
Prof Locks is 26-15 with TNF picks
TBSB is on a 5-0 run
Vegas Ninja: 64-35 NFL
Choose what you like. I'll also post team trends (/channel/cappers_journal/6539) as usual, all stats are tracked as always, so far so good.
Good luck!
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PickzHub is a tough guy considering he's mostly doing parlays and staying at a good win rate. He's coming off 3 wins now, more often he loses than wins in these spots: 10-14 (41.6%).
TMS is still hot with NBA: 12-2 run.
Prof Locks has an interesting spot for what it's worth: ML picks on Wednesdays are 9-1 (totals on Tuesdays are now 17-3 after Bucks/OKC under cashed). Take it with a grain of salt. I don't see how bet types and days of the week can correlate but the numbers are out there.
Vegas Ninja, like I usually say, is not great with NBA picks. Giannis could not get 30 points.
Team Trends (/channel/cappers_journal/6535) outplayed all cappers by going 2-0 with two unders. Hope they keep hitting at the same win rate.
Good luck!
• Free picks were and will be posted here ⬅️ click
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Trends.
Yesterday should've been 1-1-1
4-star play Raiders spread should've been a push since the spread closed at 6 but will count it as a loss anyways.
I like the 3-star plays more and more — yesterday it was a blowout win with Oilers / Panthers scoring 11 total goals.
2-star play Sacramento Kings -1.5 was a hell of a rollercoaster — came back from down 21, had a 10-point lead, still lost.
"Big" plays today (I'm still not betting them)
Unders in two NHL games. Of course I like 5-star play, this is a good bet in my opinion, and it is logical. Kings / Penguins under is an ugly bet in my opinion, but I don't come up with the numbers on my own. I post whatever I see on the scale.
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Hurricanes / Islanders UNDER 6
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Penguins / Kings UNDER 6
Analytics plays went 1-1 pregame but 2-0 for me and all who were patient to grab a live bet on the Heat ✅
Recaps: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Get access to all stats, cappers & community — hit me up if you want to join the team: @realdeal666
NHL was good, NBA was ok, NFL… I don’t even bother looking at it
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TMS keeps surprising me. In a good way. Just like Cody and Smart Money Sports whose picks I forgot to post yesterday. The rest of cappers are a good part of the fade parade.
I've got two trends for you today:
Porter Picks (>=5U): 24-8 on Mondays
TBSB coming of 2 wins: 15-27
But still I wouldn't be too hyped about TMS — his MNF picks are 15-16. Basically you have a 50% chance of winning if you tail him. Same as tossing a coin.
PickzHub, however, is 38-24 with NFL picks overall, but just 7-7 on Monday Night Football. Same coin flip. But at least he has an overall-positive winning record with NFL picks.
Who else? Maybe the same Cody Covers will pick a winner today. He is 12-3 with ML picks & 14-5 with Totals on Monday Night Football. Spreads are just 7-8. Don't ask me how and why. I just tell you the numbers.
And I'll also have my team trends posted here (/channel/cappers_journal) as always. The first-ever 5-star play was a winner with Eagles / Steelers under 43. 3-star plays are also doing pretty well. 2-stay plays are shabby. Might get rid of them if they stay hanging around 50% win rate by the end of the month.
Good luck in your action today!
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A couple thoughts on the Lions / Bills game
Lions ATS: 31-19 as favs, 62-43 on Sundays. Bills are 35-24 ATS as away team. If some decent cappers pick Lions it might be a play for me. So for 60/40 in favor of Lions.
Totals are interesting here too. Bills are 5-0 L5 to the OVER. Never been more than 5 overs in a row since 2017. But Lions at home = OVER (40-23 since 2017).
