🚨 CAPPERS CONSENSUS:
NFL: STEELERS +3
Consensus is 161-154-5 overall since we started tracking it:
NCAAF: 12-13-2
NBA: 37-31-1
NFL: 15-16-1
MLB: 59-42
NHL: 8-14
BOXING/UFC: 1-4
NCAAB: 32-34-1
SOCCER: 0-1
Cappers consensus is the plays I track whenever I see a lot of cappers on the same side. I don’t make these picks, I only track them.
Didn’t want to bet but positive results delivered. It was always USF and OVER ✅
Recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
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SJSU/USF was pretty easy. All cappers did well.
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NHL Trends and 3U trends remain the sweet spot. Narrowed down to 3U NHL trends: 9-1 record. Maybe we'll get something good here moving forward.
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🎅 Santa Perry has been blessing us with LOCKS for 3 days straight... If you faded him of course. And don't tell me I didn't tell you: Steelers +7 ❌, Bills -14 ❌, 76ers -5.5 ❌ (by the hook!)
Bulls delivered lumps of coal for all naughty cappers. Or is it the Bucks who are ready to put up a fight without their key players?
Packers and under was the move. Vegas Ninja's NFL spreads are now 16-3. And no one reminded me about it 😒
I didn't post the trends yesterday. And for the best. I'll talk about them in the next post.
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Decent Monday
Definitely missed out on the Packers spread yesterday in hindsight. There were prerequisites, but I didn't see them.
Winners and losers recapped here: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Sunday NFL is usually ass — which was the case yesterday.
Can't even highlight any capper from yesterday. Well, probably only GL who extended his streak to 32-5.
But still, Sean Perry fade worked AGAIN — Patriots +14 was the LOCK. And today might another good day to fade him: 2-5 coming off 6 losses; 20-29 on Mondays.
Rest of intel — in the paid 👀
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Yesterday was money. Everything I told you worked just right. Leave a like or something if it helped you 🤝
Today I am stingy though 🥸 You'll get used to the free stuff and won't purchase my paid subscription with tons of valuable info, cappers, stats and community of goats 😭
ok, briefly about today:
Don't fade the cappers from the top of the list (TMS, PickzHub, TBSB, Vegas Ninja)
Sean Perry is in another good fade spot: 2-7 coming off 5 wins + bad at NFL
Although I would think twice before tailing TMS's NFL picks today... Just my two cents tho. He's hot af this month.
Good luck!
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Cappers said it was the biggest sports day of the year yesterday. And they were not wrong. Good execution from most cappers in the paid.
Recap: /channel/+EeleG0oLdho3YTA6
Trends did 50/50 yesterday. Today there's a 6-star play.
I did not expect it tbh but there's just too much lining up on this play. All trends are pointing towards the UNDER in the Ravens / Steelers game. I don't like it but we'll see.
And then I had this thought: why 3-unit (stars) plays perform best? 1-2 units are low-confidence plays, there's not many trends lining up on them. 4-5 unit plays have too many trends lining up on them and such overlapping might result in some deviation from the trend. And 3 units is like a golden middle. I think they'll be the way to go.
Admin's Friday talk.
Indeed Knights / Jets stayed UNDER. But today I'm bringing not a pick but some sTaTs 🤓
So, public betting intel, betting picture, etc. has become a popular topic lately. Especially in the NFL. What public is betting, how much money is public betting and so on.
I started tracking pretty much the same thing (without bets/handles of course, I'm not working for the book) a few years ago. Started off with MLB when cappers were doing extremely bad. Thought that cappers are mortal humans, and it would be a good idea to fade them (hence the #againstthecrowd tag). But I needed some consistency with selecting the angles worth fading. So I went over to covers consensus and started tracking top public consensus plays. It worked well that season. But now let's talk about NFL and public betting.
Gathered NFL stats from Covers consensus since 2017. And what can 7 years of data tell us?
1. FADING top public totals is more profitable — 58.4% win rate vs 54.3% fading spreads (still not too bad — 54% win rate across 7 years is GOOD!)
2. The best day of the week for FADING the public — Sunday.
3. Worst month for public (best for fading) is January — the start of playoffs. December is also pretty bad but this year public is feasting. (Should we expect some public regression soon?)
Overall 56.39% win rate across nearly 900 picks given odds are -110 (1.91) most of the time is SOLID AF.
I deliver intel. You use it. Or don't use it. Do whatever you want with it 🥸
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Like I said, the cappers from the upper part are doing well. Gotta know when to change the tune right?
TMS is a money-printing machine: 11-0 L11, 13-2 NBA run. 19-10 on Fridays.
Vegas Ninja: not great on Fridays. Might fade if he picks NBA today.
Prof Locks: not great either; PODs are 20-32 on Fridays.
TBSB: 6-0 run; 1-1 coming off 6 wins.
Duck Investments: down bad, fade material.
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The magic of reverse jinx ✅
At the halftime I was cursing all cappers for picking Chargers
🚨 CAPPERS CONSENSUS:
NFL: CHARGERS ML
Consensus is 160-154-5 overall since we started tracking it:
NCAAF: 12-13-2
NBA: 37-31-1
NFL: 14-16-1
MLB: 59-42
NHL: 8-14
BOXING/UFC: 1-4
NCAAB: 32-34-1
SOCCER: 0-1
Cappers consensus is the plays I track whenever I see a lot of cappers on the same side. I don’t make these picks, I only track them.
Some more stats & sheets 🤓
Look, there's been mostly unders this season in the NHL lately (228-249 (52.2% TO THE UNDER) this season overall).
So, another game I'm expecting to stay under the total apart from the games listed in the team trends sheet is Canucks / Golden Knights
Public trends (from covers.com) — 41% on Thursdays; 15-35 L50; 62-70 (46.9%) coming off 1 win.
If I had to put it on the scale it'd be a 2-star play so not much confidence in it.
Anyways, just sharing while I have some time while waiting for cappers.
Team trends
5 plays for today. From what I like the most here is Suns with points. Nuggets are 0-2 ATS on Christmas L3 years. Will I play it? Not sure. NBA trends are wonky.
And a bunch of angles that didn’t make it to the sheet:
Knicks: 6-0 ATS coming off 4-0 ATS run.
Knicks: 22-29 to the OVER on Wednesdays.
Celtics: 2-0 to the OVER coming off 0-5 OVER run.
Lakers: 81-57 to the OVER as away team.
I like Knicks ATS; every time they covered the spread 4 times in a row, they also cover the spread in the 5th game. I also like Celtics game to go OVER — 3-0 to the OVER in Christmas games.
And some more Christmas games trends over the last 3 years:
NBA:
Knicks: 2-1 ATS; 2-1 to the OVER.
Mavs: 3-0 ATS; 2-1 to the OVER.
Celtics: 3-0 ATS; 3-0 to the OVER.
Warriors: 3-0 ATS; 3-0 to the OVER.
Lakers: 0-3 ATS; 3-0 to the OVER.
Nuggets: 0-2 ATS; 1-1 to the OVER.
NFL:
Chiefs: 1-1 ATS; 1-1 to the OVER.
Steelers: 1-1 ATS; 1-1 to the OVER.
Ravens: 2-0 ATS; 2-0 to the OVER.
Here’s all Santa Intel got for you. You decide how to use this. I’ll try to see if this data matches with any of the cappers wev’ve got.
It's hard to measure all the benefits of paid content in numbers, but the most important achievement is that I managed to create a community where everyone benefits. And not less importantly everyone helps each other. Especially when the cappers are not doing well.
That's what I'm really proud of and this is where I feel people's support. Creating a community helps people become better bettors has worked out for me.
And shout out to the haters. Thanks for making me come up with more and more useful stuff. I'll just let some of the reviews speak for me I guess 🤓
P.S. I dropped prices on all packages. You can now sign up for as low as $30 a week. Sale lasts till the end of the year, so just 7 days. Maybe next year prices will go up again. Who knows 👀
DM me any time @realdeal666 or visit https://cappersintel.com if you want to sign up
Merry Christmas 🎅
Trends that I didn't post yesterday went 5-6 overall:
NHL trends went 2-1
3U plays went 2-2 (1-0 NHL, 1-2 NBA)
6U play got another L 😂
NHL was great thanks to the greatest NHL capper I've seen. Under in the MNF game was solid but I didn't trust it — YDC's NFL totals were 8-0 last season and are 1-3-1 this season. EP's play was a solid move too (Blue Jackets / Canadiens over 6) — spoke about it in the briefing, didn't highlight it later, shame on me. Sixers was never the move — lost by the hook, I told everyone to stay away from it!
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All cappers on the Bulls because Giannis and Dame are out. Literally nothing can go wrong, right?
Bucks are bad as underdogs but somehow they are not bad without their stars 👀
And in the NFL no one expects the game to go over 43.5 points 👀👀
3 stars plays remain the sweet spot. Everything else sucks. But that's good. It just means that we'll have a better understanding of what to pay attention to moving forward.
What works best for now: NHL trends, 3-star trends, totals.
Well, a few more spots that won't hurt:
NHL:
Rangers coming off 1 wins: 43-23 | 26-10 on Sundays — looks like a good underdog spot (it's also a bad spot for Hurricanes)
LA Kings 14-6 on Sundays
Oilers as home favs: 75-37 to the OVER
Avalanche: 26-9 coming off 2 wins (good for a live bet)
NFL:
Lions as favs: 33-18 to the OVER
Rams as favs: 50-39 to the UNDER
Eagles' last 3 games stayed UNDER — they're 6-1 to the OVER after 3 consecutive UNDERs
49ers are 24-12 to the OVER after last game stayed UNDER
Buccs: 38-25 to the OVER as away team
Admin's two cents: I like the UNDER in the Bills game, OVER in the Buccs game, and Giants with points. Ugly plays but we'll see. Maybe I'll even bet something today.
Have a profitable Sunday everyone!
And how EASY was Ohio State!!
Mumbo Jumbo nukenheimer lock of the century of the week 😤✅
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What about our favorite public betting?
According to covers consensus, the top consensus plays in the NFL are ...
Steelers +7 (60% of picks)
Texans / Chiefs OVER 42.5 (56%)
#againstthecrowd plays would be Ravens -7 and Texans / Chiefs UNDER 42.5
Firstly, public is doing bad on Saturdays. 18-36 with Saturday NFL plays (fades are 36-18 obviously) both totals and spreads combined.
Spreads:
Today's play is Steelers with points. According to my team trends it's also a good move. And fades are coming off 5 straight losses. Due for a win I guess. Not a move for me but something to look out for maybe.
Totals:
This one looks like a solid fade. Saturday totals are 8-20 (20-8 fades) + 66-44 coming off 1 loss with totals + team totals (both teams' games are low-scoring pretty much).
So from this brief assessment I can say that I like the UNDER in the KC / HOU game. I'll see what our respected and not so respected cappers have to say before making a final decision.
Friday is the worst day usually but yesterday cappers went off. Of course the ones who were doing good previously (and the ones from behind the paywall 👀). The ones at the bottom failed the test.
We've got all kinds of sports today. Well maybe just lacking UFC. But there's a big boxing bout — Usyk vs Fury. If Drake makes a move there you know the drill...
I think it's pretty clear who's worth fading and who's worth tailing.
Good entry points to fade:
Sean Perry: 3-9 coming off 4 losses
Analytics Capper: 7-13 coming off 3 losses
There's also TBSB with his longest ever 7-0 winning streak. Curious how it'll go.
TMS is on fire and he's been doing ok with rare Saturday NFL. PickzHub and Vegas Ninja might do ok too.
Good luck!
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Got caught up w stuff, so late update on trends
Yesterday was a stress test which went quite bad.
Not much trends today, two NHL totals and two NBA trends for the Cavs.
Personal play — Knicks +3.5 — ✅
Yes I faded a capper on an 8-0 run. What’re you gonna do to me 😤
Good. Thursday is second-best day for betting after Wednesday
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Buy low on Chargers, sell high on Broncos? Cappers' sentiment is all about Chargers today.
Should we unload all the coins on Chargers?
Added two more teams, now have 30 teams tracked, 10 from each league. There's already 8 trends for today so that should be a good sample. So far so good. Let's keep it going same way.
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