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NBA underdogs are 5-0 straight up in conference semifinals.
Rigged? Let's bet the rigged side then!
I don't know if underdogs will keep winning. Maybe if the underdog wins in the early game (Knicks / Celtics) we will see another 2-0 underdog day yet again. But I doubt it.
My two cents: I like the over in the OKC / Nuggets game.
Underdogs prevail. Props to Mariners' 3 runs in the 9th inning.
Wednesday and Thursday on paper are underdog days in the MLB.
We'll see how we can use that.
Tuesday is an underdog day in the NHL playoffs (22-13). Both dogs have decent chances. As always, I'd wait for the first game to end and then bet the second one. But we already have a play on the first game.
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No trends in the NBA. I would lay off betting underdogs. Celtics + OKC MLP looks like a lock of the century, right? That's what everyone would think...
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First time in forever MLB favs are in the negatives — just 46% win rate in May. Looks like the tides have changed and underdogs prevail now. Home underdogs might be the key to success for now.
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MLB favs did 50/50 yesterday, pretty sure favs do better today. but i'd wait for the late games you know.
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That was quite a bounce back for favorites — MLB favorites went 13-1 straight up yesterday and Friday remains the most square day of the week — favs are winning 72% on Fridays.
I expect favorites to prevail this weekend too.
How about that Thursday!? Underdogs won 10-of-11 games yesterday 😱
I think this month we will see underdogs prevail.
But still I will be backing favorites today: Friday thru Sunday favs are winning 65% of games (so far).
NHL was good yesterday — one underdog which aligned with our NHL capper — Panthers ML! And in this case favorite was a good move in the late game (which was also confirmed by our NHL goat Major Wedgy). So this sheet works as good as the MLB one.
Underdog day today according to the sheet. I expect 2 underdogs. Senators / Leafs is a close game, all other games have a clear underdog — Wild, Stars, Kings. All underdogs have chances to win in my opinion.
But my job here is done. We have to wait for cappers now to make a move.
My NBA takes:
I’m leaning Rockets, Lakers and Lakers / Twolves Under today because…
Nuggets covered yesterday which made it a 3-0 run for the favorites in the last game of the NBA playoff slate. Same three last games all went OVER the total.
There is also another trend for the first game — Rockets / Warriors. Since the start of the playoffs, there’s a very interesting pattern for the first games:
Favorite / underdog / Favorite / underdog / Favorite / underdog / Favorite / underdog / Favorite / underdog — all against the spread. Bucks covered yesterday, Cavs covered 2 days ago, and so on to the very start of the playoffs. Anyways, I believe this pattern continues and Rockets cover.
MLB underdogs were not the move yesterday.
But Guardians was the move.
Favorites are rolling. Nothing to say about today.
One thing I’d say is dodgers today will probably be in all parlays. So I’d skip it naturally.
MLB was pretty much like I expected yesterday (I did not expect anything yesterday) — 2 underdogs won, the rest was all favorites.
Today. Today I’m looking at underdogs. Home underdogs.
Best underdog MLB odds I’ve spotted:
+110
+120
+150
Somehow underdogs at these odds are performing better than other odds.
Not your average "picks delivery" service
😉
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MLB favs went 12-3 yesterday. Thursday is a dog day on paper (favorites are 26-27 SU on Thursday). But favorites might be bouncing back after underdogs were barking to start the month.
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Oilers got my coin back after Capitals lost. NHL played out like I expected.
Two games today again. We already saw Toronto / Florida game, pretty equal teams. Leafs have goalie problems which is why they're priced so low. I already see some cappers on Panthers ML. But like I said, I don't really trust cappers now. And I will do what I should've done yesterday — wait for the first game to end before betting. More so, Jets are underdogs at home - I don't think that's right.
P.S. Late NHL Playoff games are 10-4 to the OVER and 9-5 Favorites SU. Might be the time for tides to change
Favorites in the NBA conference semifinals:
L L L L L
No Curry no problem
NBA was fun yesterday. Both underdogs won outright. Underdogs prevail, can't say anything on how long it will continue.
I think there's a good chance for another underdog day: Pacers prove they are no scape goats and can keep up with the leaders of the East, Twolves are not a great team to bet as home favorite. Nothing material though.
Obvious favs won yesterday, home underdogs went 1-1. Not great not terrible, my MLB "system" (/channel/mlb_us/423) got a little profit yesterday
Hoping favs dominate so that there's more underdogs on Wed-Thu.
NHL favs are 5-2 so far in May. Nothing specific for now, I would just leave the first games and jump on to betting later.
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NBA is interesting today
Firstly, we have the first game Fav/Dog pattern which has been working perfectly since the start of the playoffs. Underdog covered and won last time ( it was the Knicks) so one thing I will say is ... Cavs should dismantle the Pacers today.
Although I think Pacers are no scape goats and throughout the series they will cause problems.
Secondly, underdogs are 11-4 in the last game of the day — Warriors 👀👀👀 Idk man Warriors looked fucking washed last game. They couldn't keep up w Rockets.
If we see a consensus on either game I think I'll look to fade it.
Saturdays are not only a fav day in the MLB but in the NHL playoffs too:
Playoffs favs are 21-10 on Saturdays 👀 So we should expect Avalanche to advance... but...
Dallas head coach Pete DeBoer is 2-0 in Game 7s since joining the Stars, with both games being won at home. He holds an all-time record of 8-0 in Game 7s of a Stanley Cup Playoff series 🤷♂️🤷♂️
No NHL underdog won yesterday and I even know why — there was one capper who played all underdogs. Bro is on an insane losing streak 😭
So like I said I use these sheets in paid with cappers
There's only one game today so no take from me (nothing in the NBA either)
NBA takes went 2-1 yesterday. Lakers lost in 5 😂 I remember seeing so many cappers to bet on "Lakers to advance" which was like -140 ??? That was wild 😂
2 games today (the best two matchups of the first round in my opinion)
Pistons / Knicks. The D/F/D/F/D/F/D/F/D/F trend still stands, so underdog has to cover today if the trend continues. I think the series ends today. But that's just me.
Nothing on Clippers / Denver today. I'd like this series to go to 7 games. Clippers should be winning at home, and then they will have to prove they have the champions cajones to fight in Denver in game 7.
No MLB takes for today so I'll just summarize why am I doing all this stuff with tracking MLB favorites:
1. I can see how the game day might go — right now Wednesday is the underdog day, Friday and Saturday are the favorites days.
2. I know that favorites prevail in the last game of the day: 24-11 (68% win rate)
3. I know that home teams prevail, and very seriously.
So, if used properly, the sheet and chart help in choosing the good plays among our cappers.
NHL was good — 2/3 underdogs won considering that Hurricanes were the lOcK.
Today I think we will see only one underdog. If I am right, it will be logical to wait till the last game and judge by the first two.
NHL
I was right about fav / dog balance. Today I’m looking at underdogs like in the MLB too. Don’t know who but most definitely not Devils 🥸
Pre-gameday analytics: 3-0 (don’t ask me what happened next)
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Another month over for Kold's system:
106 wins
78 losses
+2.33 units profit ... on an average risk of 0.15 units per bet !!
11.23% ROI in 2025 across 574 plays (ask chat gpt what's a good ROI in sports betting - it'll tell you 5%)
Public tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12le2OeBDlkKb1yJnRuAN6uWu4BrHhdI783n8D__I2AY/edit?usp=sharing
