NHL
We did not expect Panthers to lose right? Well, we'll see game 7.
Satudays = favorites. On the other hand, favorites been winning a lot, and just maybe Maple Leafs set the trend for the underdogs train?👀👀
Idk, I have no thoughts on Stars/Jets game. Maybe it's one of those "do not overthink it" games and Stars close it out.
What you think?
⭐️ — 👍
🛩 — 🔥
WNBA
Just posting the plays now. Will have units for WNBA plays unlike Intel MLB. Sheet later when we have some history of plays.
LV Aces +3.5 -110 (1U)
CHI / IND UNDER 169.5 -110 (0.5U)
MLB
It's faves day (on paper) today: favs are 62-28 (68.9%) on Friday. But you see underdogs are winning a lot this month. Curious to see how the day will go
My trends with plays are posted here: /channel/mlb_lab
NHL
One favorite & one underdog like we expected yesterday. Today we could see the same scenario. I hope it will be Capitals and Jets.
I will expect one over & one under today too. Ear;y games of the NHL playoffs are 4-1 L5 to the over and late games are 4-1 L5 to the under. Who could've expected Oilers / Golden Knights game to have 0 goals scored?
NBA
Underdogs are fine in the NBA Playoffs. There's two games, both games can be final in the series.
I'd look into totals here and, in the playoffs usually one game goes over and the other stays under the total.
Biased opinion: Knicks win (and Timberwolves win too for the dog/fav balance).
Soccer in May has been treating us well. Also sorted the profit by leagues: Germany is most profitable, Spain is least profitable. We've got midweek games:
Wednesday:
🇺🇸 Seattle UNDER 2.5 — risk 0.4 U
🇺🇸 Atlanta DRAW +300 — risk 0.1 U
🇺🇸 Atlanta OVER 2.5 (-150) — risk 0.2 U
🇺🇸 Charlotte DRAW +290 — risk 0.25 U
🇺🇸 Charlotte OVER 2.5 (-130) — risk 0.1 U
Thursday:
🇪🇸 Getafe DRAW — risk 0.4 U
🇪🇸 Betis DRAW — risk 0.1U
MLB
Favorites are winning 56.5% of games so far. But obviously juiced losses like Padres couple days ago will make the situation horrible.
Home teams are doing great:
2-0 home underdogs yesterday
8-3 home favorites yesterday
No NBA trends today. So I thought why not get ready for WNBA.
I've got stats. I'm sure I can find ways to turn it to profits — trends are clear, graphs are mostly trending downwards. And what's great is that there are not that many games each day — easier to analyze.
React on all posts. I want to see you engage. And then when WNBA season comes I'll become a WNBA capper for only $99 / week share the stuff I'll be betting.
MLB favs are still not doing so well — first time since the start of the season I'm painting this chart red.
I'm still of the opinion that home favorites is the way to bet MLB — 64% win rate after all.
Late games in the NBA playoffs = underdogs. So far 12-7 on the season. Especially home dogs.
Works only when there's more than 1 game of course.
Nothing exciting today.
Padres losing yesterday was fun (their team total was set at 7.5; run line was -3.5 🥶Sunday is now the second-worst day for MLB favorites.
Monday pretty standard. New series of games, nothing outstanding. Home teams remain profitable (especially home favorites). Padres losing yesterday was fun (their team total was set at 7.5; run line was -3.5 🥶Sunday is now the second-worst day for MLB favorites.
Monday pretty standard. New series of games, nothing outstanding. Home teams remain profitable (especially home favorites).
46-46 ATS — favorites and underdogs ATS in the last game since 2023 playoffs. Obviously that only counts when there's more than one game.
Underdogs are 12-4 ATS in the last game on Sundays: Pacers +5.5. No opinion.
Nuggets don't lose clutch games. Jokic > SGA.
Identical situation today: underdogs are 3-8 ATS in the last game on Saturdays (Timberwolves should cover?)
But I was right about the totals: the over in the Warriors / Timberwolves game should hit today
MLB underdogs did well yesterday. Favs should strike back.
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NHL playoffs... I'll just stop with my two cents 😭
Betting all underdogs will guarantee you profit in the long-run. The data I've gathered proves it.
Well, you could bet favorites on weekends. Somehow favs win more on weekends.
MLB
No changes here. Underdogs are dominating the faves. +200 underdogs winning left and right. Favs are winning 60% on Sat but Friday was supposed to be even better and what did we see?
Best odds for underdogs: +110, +120, +150 (somehow underdogs at these odds have higher win rates)
And yeah don't forget about Intel MLB: /channel/mlb_lab. Saturdays are shitty for my MLB trends, I don't hide that and I'm not ashamed of that. My job is to deliver the intel - how you use this intel is up to you 🤝
NHL
Caps were disgusting. But one of my favorite cappers picked Jets yesterday (his NHL is 6-0 now). So dog/fav was irrelevant.
Favorites are 41-26 in these playoffs but barely profitable
One game today. Panthers are looking to close out the series. What you thinking?
🐆 — 👍
📃 — 🔥
NBA
Only one game a day from now on. Second season in a row underdogs prevailed in late games (13-9 this season).
WNBA starts in two days. Then we'll have conference finals too. Gotta enjoy the last days of NBA (and bet too).
No NBA action today, just enjoying the Nuggets / Thunder game as a fan.
MLB
Underdogs took over. The chart went below the "support" line (the one with the yellow).
Bet faves live, bet underdogs pregame.
NHL
Favorites are dominating (38-25) ... but still not profitable 😂 Two games today, good chance for one fav / one dog type day. As usual - I'll wait for the first game to end.
Intel MLB 5/14
23-7 Wednesdays
Dodgers -1.5 -130
Reds under 8.5 -110
Dbacks / Giants over 8 -120
Padres / Angels under 8.5 +100
Pacers vs Knicks in the ECF 😭
Pacers vs OKC finals 💀 (no way Knicks 6-man lineup beats deep Pacers team)
NHL favs been doing well — 5-1 over the last 3 days.
14-23 on Tuesdays though makes me think Stars lose today... But that's just my two cents.
Quarter of the MLB season is done. Can draw some conclusions.
First of all, the most profitable teams (among those that I track) on the money line are:
1. Padres
2. Tigers
3. Guardians
(The least profitable: Orioles )
Look, I only track 10 teams — they're all on the screenshot. That's enough for me, I don't need to track all teams.
Secondly. all these teams are UNDERS teams. The most frequent UNDERs teams:
1, Mets
2. Padres
3. Reds
4. Dbacks
5. Astros
Just for scale: overs are 280 | unders are 299 so far this MLB season: 48.4% overs vs 51.6% unders
Some things to consider when betting MLB 🧠
NHL weekend went as planned: 3 favorites won, 1 lost.
It is only logical to bet underdogs on weekdays (I expect at least one underdog to win today).
And yesterday O/U... trend is still alive. So Canes / Capitals should stay UNDER 5.5 goals.
Time to revamp this channel.
Not changing my principles or strategies. Just a heads up on what you can expect here and how you can use the info.
Of course the main topic of the channel remains sports betting. My vision differs from cappers.
I'm fed up with cappers and their marketing bullshit, all they want to do is sell their plays. I don't value plays per se as much now. So here I'll be sharing my previews of game days. Favorites / underdogs, overs / unders — all that jazz. No plays, just analytics. If you're smarter than a bread stick (I'm sure you are), this will be useful for you. So, I'll just be sharing my experience on here!
If you need the PLAYS...
Here's the free channels that I run:
Free cappers plays & detailed stats: /channel/betting_intel
MLB plays based off trends I track: /channel/mlb_us
Soccer plays based off trends I track: /channel/soccer_lab
OR. Join my paid service where I track cappers, post their plays, share the intel and suggest plays to bet — all you need to make your bets confidently with intel: https://cappersintel.com (dm me for a free trial: @realdeal666)
Feel free to reach out with any questions @readeal666
One underdog won yesterday. The chart is moving downwards right next to the trend line — which proves the theory that you can just bet all underdogs.
Stars / Jets should go over today (the O/U/O pattern still goes on)
NHL favorites are hitting 66% on weekends. So everything below -150 is value
And another pattern: first game totals are U/O/U/O/U/O .. so maybe we'll see Hurricanes / Caps under again.
OKC -5.5 is in a 9-2 spot today:
Since 2023, on Fridays, in the last game of the day, favorites are 9-2 ATS. Look, I know the probability theory and I know these games do not depend on each other ... but that's an interesting pattern 🤷♂️
There's also an O/U/O/U/O/U/O pattern in the last game ... so maybe OKC/Nuggets UNDER today?
Also, underdogs have covered 5 times in a row in the first game of the day in the playoffs (9-7 overall). In 2024, underdogs went 9-15. So maybe the tides are changing and favorites take over finally?
MLB favs dominated again. Favorites are 56-21 on Favorites. Looks like we'll see one more day like that.
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