MLB
Dogs won't stop losing so I though "what might be the breaking point in the season when dogs stop winning so much?"
So I decided to compare the MLB season with the NHL season.
Favorites were winning in both leagues at the start of the seasons, then underdogs took over. In the NHL, favorites took over again after the All Star break (circled on the screenshot).
So maybe we'll see the same kind of dynamics in the MLB. But while underdogs are winning, try taking advantage of it.
NHL
Last time I called it perfectly. Oilers won, panthers scored first. But oilers deserved it. Bobrovsky is not him so far. Although skinner is also not perfect.
Anyways. My opinion is the same. I think oilers win again. Let me remind you that since 2023 in June, favorites are 12-2 SU.
And overall I think Panthers will not see back to back Championships.
🛢 - 🔥
🐆 - ❤️
WNBA
ATL / CON OVER 158.5 (-110) 0.5U
LA -1.5 (-110) 1U
NBA
A lot of cappers on OKC — that's the only thing that I am suspicious of. But there are also good cappers on OKC. I expect OKC to start strong and cover in the 1st game.
Do what you want with this intel, I'll enjoy a 3-1 day with MLB plays 🫡
Nope. Underdogs are still dominating, going 8-7 SU yesterday. Well, let's get used to it then.
Top 5 underdogs imho today:
Orioles +135
Mets +115
Guardians +230
Dbacks +140
And of course Nationals +130
I think at least 3 of these should cash.
And I wouldn't mind if I jinx all underdogs and favorites sweep today — I want cappers to do better (of course cappers barely bet any underdogs lol)
NHL
The Finals! Long expected. Might even bet this game.
Tempted to go Oilers ML. June Favorites are hitting 84% since 2023.
Might wait for a live bet knowing Oilers.
Who do you think wins the first game?
🛢 — 🔥
🐆 — ❤️
MLB
Plenty of underdogs yesterday. Waiting to see how this month unfolds. But I have something interesting today...
How about a Marlins / Dodgers parlay (+177)?
Marlins
First game stats:
Home favorites are 31-12 (7-2 on Tuesdays).
Rockies are 1-8 coming off a win.
Dodgers
Last game stats:
Home favorites are 30-19. Currently on a 0-6 run — happened once this season and ended on 7th.
Is this the lock right here?
Yesterday I said that MLB favs priced -200 are winning at a solid clip (109-33 overall, 76% win rate).
What's more interesting is that betting them is actually profitable. But not everyone would bet a -400 favorite on the money line, right? So here's what I did:
If there is more than one such favorite in any given game day — we put them all in a parlay and risk 1 unit. If there is only one favorite — we still risk 1 unit on the ML.
And there's the results:
34 wins, 28 losses
14-2 ML (21% ROI)
20-26 parlays (9.9% ROI)
If we'll see favorites win a lot more in June like it was in April then it might a very good strategy to follow.
Also 8-1 on Mondays 👀
I only see Tigers ML at -222 now. Marlins are close (-190) but won't qualify if they are not -200 by game time.
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20 spots only. There's 10k of you and I'm here alone, I don't have time for everyone 🥲
Also. Interesting stats on the early games.
Home favorites are 30-11 in the first game of the day
Home underdogs are 14-7
Home teams are 44-18 in the first game of the day❗️
Best days for home favs: Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday. On Wednesdays favs are 2-7. Might be a good fade especially if it's an away team.
MLB Lab plays: /channel/mlb_lab
WNBA
Chicago / Dallas UNDER 172.5 -110 (0.5U)
Chicago +2.5 -110 (0.5U)
MLB
The chart is slowly starting to level off and there is a gut feeling that in June we will again see favorites dominating. But it's too early to draw conclusions.
Today there are some interesting trends on the first and last games: in both cases favorites are 7-2 SU and in both cases favorites play at home.
Feels like Cubs / Mariners parlay look good. Or is it too easy?
Cubs + Mariners parlay:
👍 — 🔒
👎 — L
MLB
Yesterday was just an anomaly. Underdogs are still dominating. 😭
Ok maybe not yet…
Guardians now 20-3 off 3 losses since 2023
If White Sox and Red Sox both win… underdogs will be 3-2 SU to start the day.
WNBA
Finally picking up something here.
0.5U teaser (-110):
Seattle -1
LV / GS over 156
0.5U single:
Seattle -5.5 (-110)
MLB
Not much change. Dogs are still winning the majority of games. Let me share the dogs I think are good:
Cubs
Reds
Padres
If I were to choose favorites I would do the first and the last games again (Rays already won). So let’s see if Braves win.
just look at the fans' faces😅 I don't think they were expecting this kind of ending, but we were expecting exactly this kind of final game🔥 Haliburton, who are you?👽
And yes, UNDER cash 💰 2-0 nhl&nba finals
NBA
It's going to be a great Finals. We should see 4:1 at best 😂
But I'll root for Pacers to put up some kind of fight.
But If I'm posting then I have some intel to share. And I'm sharing covers.com consensus. So, in June consensus totals are just 1-9. And of course the public is pouring in on the OVER. So I have no choice but to route for the under.
👍 — OVER
👎 — UNDER
MLB
Dogs are still barking. Only favorites of over -200 (<=1.50) are profitable.
Marlins took an L, Dodgers won. FMB mushed Marlins 😭 ( hit me up if you need his plays tho - I'll send them to you @realdeal666 )
Marlins fit a 7-0 trend, basically a no-lose spot this season. First game favorites are 7-0 off 2 losses. Just took them live +100.
No way Rockies sweep them, right? 😂
WNBA
0.5U teaser (-110):
PHO / MIN under 163.5
MIN -8
MLB
That was quite a change. Favorites went 12-3 SU. Not saying June will be all favorites yet, let's wait a few more days.
But while we wait, I have more useful intel to share. Elaborated on MLB favs of -200 or more.
Give me some reactions boys 🔥
WNBA
Bad start for my strategy so I'm making some changes. I'll add teasers and 1Q plays.
1. LV Aces / Seattle under 160 -110 (1U)
2. Teaser (-110, 0.5U):
Connecticut +23.5
Aces / Seattle under 164.5
MLB
That's how the month should've ended I suppose. What next?
My opinion is favorites should win 60-61% of games (similarly to NHL). Currently favs are winning 58% on the season. So there's room for growth. And I think they'll go off in June.
What I also noticed is that the most profitable favorites are priced -200 or more expensive: 109-33 | 76% win rate | 5.5% ROI (8U profit if you risked 1 unit on all)
Underdogs went 184-212 SU in May: 46.5% win rate (+137 average odds) | 6% ROI | 25U profit.
Highest win rate odds for MLB underdogs (based off closing lines):
+165
+110
+100
-105
More info to come today. Got a lot to share!
MLB
Underdogs still way more profitable than favs. Expecting smth like that today too.
The Cubs / Mariners parlay was nowhere near close to hitting. But MLB lab plays did very well — especially since my favorite Nats and Angels both won too.
/channel/mlb_lab
NHL
We finished the final game of the conference finals on a positive note, I hope you were also on the side of the underdog - Edmonton in our case
We're in for a rematch of last year's final, a very interesting battle. There is an interesting fact in my sheets:
Favorites are 11-2 in the playoff games of June, so we will be looking for home winners
Who do you think will win the cup?
🛢 — 🔥
🐆 — ❤️
NHL
Leaning Oilers here because of the stats. So will they end the series today and we see last year's finals rematch?
🛢 — 👍
⭐️ — 🔥
NHL
Will we see game 6 or it ends all today?
🌀 — 👍
🐆 — 🔥
MLB
Long have we waited! Favorites are taking over!!
MLB favorites went 12-3 straight up yesterday. 19-7 in the last 2 days.
I'll be looking for cappers who are betting favorites today 👀
