In terms of on-chain metrics, it is very hard to find anything bearish right now.
Short term pull backs and liquidation runs will continue as usual, but the macro-stage is primed.
Here is one example
https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1451129376502861825
Bitcoin Update:
I think next 48hrs are critical for BTC.
At technical support, funding mostly low, and bottom of range, so should be a good buy spot here. Trouble is, this the 3rd or 4th touch, so support will be weak. Consolidation at this level will likely resolve down (eg. 8-24hrs+ at $30-32K).
China has unleashed and enforced just about all the FUD it possibly can at this point, so it can't get much worse from China perspective.
Question is how the market will process this over next 2 days?
So if we hold here and reclaim $33K, that would be quite bullish, a movement against the news.
Any significant time below $33K, and breakdowns under $30/32K will mean we probably go to $21/$24K.
Roughly 70% of the time during a bull market, a close or wick into the 20 week EMA resulted in the next week being green. We have wicked into it this week.
4 weeks out, it's almost always a great buy (except right at the end of the bull market).
Of course this will also happen at the end of the bull market, so you want the following week to be quite strong and green.
Note given BTC is so big now ($1T), we can expect it to be less "bouncy" and probably have less parabolic blowoff spikes, given the amount of money needed to move the market, so it is very possible we spend more time around these zones - thus making it harder to determine if it is a bounce or consolidation scenario.
Nonetheless, usually best to go with the probabilities.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lb1X2ahc/
Looks like we have a nice Wyckoff re-accumulation on the low time frame.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XJ3GwAjn/
We are near historically high levels of correlation with the S&P.
Be wary of any major traditional market events.
https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1366732284129398784
Interview on Market Disruptors talking the current Bitcoin outlook
https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1412151481659183104?s=19
Looking for a plunge into one of these levels, a capitulation type event.
If stocks continue to dump, I wouldn't buy too quickly, Bitcoin is highly correlated right now.
If stocks hold / create new ATHs, the bottom will probably be in the 34K to 39K region.
https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1394828482757070851
Seeing the same structure again now on the 15 minute.
Need a clean break and close through 47600 to confirm, but up is looking more likely than down right now. If we don't close through soon , we could range for a while longer between 45500 and 47500 (less likely).
These super bullish structures seem to work really well, in constant succession, following major breakouts like we just had at 42K from the Telsa news.
In many respects, this 42K breakout is very similar to the 20K breakout.
That means we could have a comparable level of upside in this run, and these bullish Wyckoff structures usually have a higher hit rate, particularly in the first days following the breakout (eg, now).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rysHrN0z/
Wyckoff's seem to be getting "bought up" a lot faster over the last 2 months. Eg today's breakout
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