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Welcome to Cicero’s Compass
The wick touching and close above the weekly EMA (200) confirms our short term bullish scenario. Currently at 30220, we are going up from here.
- Mr Cicero
Market is RED, fishes got liquidated, whales are accumulating, GREEN week ahead. Going to scoop up some ALTs
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There’s heavy manipulation going on. I have just bought back all in again at 38951. There are no guarantees for short term since its unpredictable, but in my opinion we are going up soon
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I am taking profits now doesn’t mean I think the macro direction has changed. I am converting BTC into stables now, so that I can buy and accumulate more BTC if it drops in the short term. If it doesn’t I’ll be in a position where I can use it to buy more ALTs
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Many expected a bear market with all the news about rate hikes, Russia-Ukraine tension and all the orchestrated news. They are now confuse as to why the price went up instead. While all these FUDs were happening, whales have been aggressively accumulating. While fishes have been selling, the whales have been buying. Why? With the buying aggressiveness of the whales, i expect things to happen much sooner den expected. Anytime from now, or possibly March we should see an uptrend in the market. Simply follow the smart money. The fishes will never win in this game. Remember that things will always happen when it is least expected (even for me). The bull-run will happen when most expect a bear market. A bear market will happen when everyone expect the bull run to continue. This is how the game is being played. 90% of people will try to time the market and end up losing and getting played. Just make sure u are not one of them.
- Mr Cicero
Panic selling here is the worse decision u can make. On a macro view, this is still in consolidation area in the bull trend. As long as BTC don’t consolidate and close below $30K, the uptrend is still in play
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The way to lose is if you are doing leverage futures play. Once u get liquidated and margin called, u are out of the game. But if u are in SPOT and bought at $50k, what does it even matter if BTC drops to $1 in the short term, and get to $100K in 6 months? U only get angry and emotional in the short term looking at the price, cursing and swearing when things are bad, elated and happy later on when price goes back up. Stop letting the price charts determine and control u and your emotion. Take a step back, look at it rationally from the big picture and learn. Simply stay in SPOT and instead of focusing your attention on the price charts, look at the metrics behind to understand what’s going on to educate yourself.
- Mr Cicero
@CiceroCompass
In a bull run, everyone thinks they will make money. They are dreaming. Whales will always eat the fishes. Just like a casino. They make u think u will make money. How many walk out of a casino losers? They first make u think there is hope to win. But u end up losing. It’s human nature to be greedy and fearful. Whales capitalize on that. Put yourself in the shoes of a whale now. What would u do now that u have unlimited resources to control the game?
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In my opinion, this is a bearish perception crafted by whales 🐋 to make u believe that we are going down to make u panic sell. I kept thinking that this “should be” the bottom. But forgetting that in this cycle, the number of whales participating have also increased dramatically as compared to the past. The past does not equate to the future. With the increasing numbers of whales, the number liquidation events increases as well because they all NEED TO accumulate low. BTC has been designed with the game theory concept.
No matter how much a nation hates, despise or are against BTC, they are forced to buy. Everyone in the world already knows that BTC is now already unstoppable. After more than a decade of trying to stop this global disruptive force, their blanket ban news are starting to have lesser and lesser impact den it used to. Especially China, who is the most vocal against BTC, yet owns the most. Their words and action contradicts.
Since BTC can’t be stopped, whether u are against or not, nations and institutions are forced to buy because if they don’t, others will.
Now as more of these mega whales participate, don’t expect that they will just FOMO in to buy to let u retailers and fishes profit from their money. They will never let u profit from them. They only profit from you. This is a game that they have played way before BTC was even invented and it works in every industry. They control the media and flow of information. They control the perception of the masses, and therefore control there perception of their reality.
Once you take away all the stories and news, removing away emotions and take a step back to look at the fundamentals, u know that $100K BTC is inevitable.
But because we are in new territory where alot of new and more powerful whales entering into the scene, there is no way to predict how many liquidation events they will conduct before they start deciding it’s time. In any case, retailers are bound to lose. The only ones that can win against them are those don’t play against them. Buy and ignore all the noise.
It’s a very simple thing say and to do. Stay in the game, yet very difficult to do when u are constantly emotionally attached. In June and July last year, many doubted me when things are bad. When things go well, people think I’m from the future and time travel back. All these years I have already not been bother.
At the end of this cycle, my goal is to ensure all of u profit. More den 90% of people will lose money at the end of the cycle. My goal is to make sure u don’t belong to the losing category.
- Mr Cicero
@CiceroCompass
Make sure u don’t panic sell. Accumulate if u can. Just make sure u don’t foolishly panic sell. This is an extended bull-run. A big one.
- Mr Cicero
Perception is more powerful den reality. Those who craft perception, are the ones who control and determine the end result.
The same goes for the crypto industry. There is extreme fear in the market right now that we might head further down. Many of u are probably affected emotionally by the price action and charts. Fishes have already started panic selling while the whales have been massively accumulating.
U are affected emotionally because u are looking at the value of your portfolio dropping or rising. Why would u be doing that? There is no progress focusing on looking at the value of your portfolio other than to give you dopamine rush. What u should be doing is to focus on educating yourself about this industry.
Some of u probably still asking the same question. “Is the bullrun still on?” I repeated countless of times that it is guaranteed 100%. When it is guaranteed and 100%, asking me again next month won’t change the answer. Why am I so confident that we are?
It’s simple. Like I said, the ones who craft perception are the ones who control the end result and outcome. Who’s crafting the perception? U know it. Put yourself in the position of a whale. What would u be doing now? Evoke massive fear to the market, scare everyone into panic selling, influence perception that we are entering into a bear market. When everyone start talking about bear market, retail fishes start panic selling. Why would whales do this? Because to maximize their profit, they need to accumulate more at lower prices.
All these are not just theories where I paint a nice story for u. It’s all proven in the onchain metrics where whales are massively accumulating.
What’s happening on the surface is completely contradicting the activities that are happening behind the scene.
Last year, I told you we 100% will break ATH in Q4 and we broke it. I told you we are in a guaranteed bull cycle, we still are. I also told u we will enter into a super-cycle like never seen before.
But since this super-cycle has never happened before, the short term price action and timeline cannot be predicted, and the methodology is totally different den before. The super-cycle is bound to happen.
Some of u may argue and say that this year the economy will crash, affecting crypto. However, u are forgetting that this is US election year. Politicians are all about optics and perception crafters. The economy will keep going up this year at least until the election is over. When there’s a perceived healthy economy, money will also flow into the crypto space.
If price drop affects your mental, its either u are doing futures play or your portfolio size is too big. Reduce it because peace of mind is more important den profits.
Remember, make sure at least 50% of your portfolio to be in BTC. BTC will lead the way in the upcoming supercycle. If your alts are dropping badly, u can use some of your BTC to accumulate them but make sure it’s at least 50%.
Many alts are dropping badly. While others are worried and fearful, I am glad because it allowed me to accumulate more while maintaining my 50% BTC ratio.
The metaverse trend will form a second wave. It is inevitable. Like I’ve said since last year, let the whales do their job to liquidate fishes. That’s what they are currently doing. So why are u panicking over something I told u about since last year?
Ignore the news, opinions by non-qualified people and perception crafted by the whales. Watch what they are doing, follow the smart money, accumulate more if u can. if not, JUST STAY IN THE GAME
- Mr Cicero
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The whales are done. This picture says it all. We go up now.
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As we approach the closing of the week red once again, the mistake I made was trying to time and predict the unpredictable short term movement of the market. I was fundamentally and technically confident we would close green but completely missed it and did not see the LUNA situation coming. Although I don’t hold LUNA, I hope none of u got burnt because of it or because of leverage trading.
There is no excuse for making such a mistake, but it also served as a good reminder that fundamentals and technicals can be thrown out the window when whales 🐋 decided on a specific direction. It has and always been about whales determining the direction of the game.
Time to take a step back, look at the macro and go back to the drawing board.
- Mr Cicero
I have started to allocate more to ETH, making it now 15% of my total portfolio.
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We are still macro bullish and BTC will still hit a new ATH this year.
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Good opportunity to take some profits and turn them into USDT. I have converted about 35% of my BTC into USDT.
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The emotion of anger, fear, uncertainty and doubt in u is the same as what everyone else is feeling. Think about what it means from a macro perspective for a moment. I said this in June last year.
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Remember, the price chart is a reflection of the emotion the market is FEELING. The metrics behind is a reflection of what the smart money is DOING
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I’ve entered some fiat money and have used 20% of the allocation to purchase BTC. The other 80% I’ve placed a buy order at 35607.
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When I say we are extremely bullish, what are your immediate thoughts and reaction? If you feel skeptical and think I’m bullshitting, it means most people also feel the same way. That’s when I know I’m right.
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There are some things that I can give 100% guarantee because they are backed by data and metrics. The bullish trend and supercycle is certain and we will 100% see a new ATH this year.
What I cannot give guarantee is specific timeline. This is the last liquidation event. I highly doubt we will go under $35K. The whales have already squeezed the fishes dry.
We are going up from here. Make sure you DON’T panic sell and DON’T do futures play now. Before every huge bull run, there’s always manipulated news to liquidate fishes. It’s already a repeated and obvious pattern.
When there’s fear in the market, fishes react to situations based on emotion by panic selling. When you feel the emotion, take a step back and use logic to analyze the situation and ask why is this happening and who’s selling/buying? Learn to form your own thesis.
The worse thing that can happen is u react to panic selling and FOMO buying. Don’t act out of emotion. Leverage futures trading heightens your emotion especially when u are not a professional. U may win now but u eventually will lose.
Remember, all TA experts can tell u whatever they want. But when the whales decided on a specific direction, all technical charts and analysis can be thrown out of the window. Stay safe, stay in spot, and stay in the game.
- Mr Cicero
@CiceroCompass
So long as u are sitting in SPOT, u have nothing to worry about. The value of your portfolio may frighten and worry u today, but if u are in SPOT, it doesn’t matter because the end result is all that matters.
- Mr Cicero
Those screaming bear market have no idea what they are talking about. That is how whales 🐋 capitalize on the fishes 🐟 ignorance and lack of knowledge.
We are still macro and structurally bullish. Every true professional and whale knows this. KOLS are NOT professional crypto people. They are professional INFLUENCERS. That’s why they are called KOLS.
The real professionals are people you don’t know. The confirmation of a bear market or crypto winter is when we have a daily or weekly close below $30K. But since I am very certain we are still bullish, it is impossible to see $30K (except for wicks to liquidate) until the super-cycle completes.
Stop using short term mentality to try and win a long term game. Many of u are still trying to beat the market and the whales. U may win in the short term like in a casino, but eventually u will lose. The only way to beat them is to stay in SPOT.
One example is the S&P 500. There are many professional organizations with complex algorithm, super computers, elite educated mathematicians and economist with hundreds of employees all trying to beat the market. But an average Joe who just invest into the S&P 500 in the last decade and go on to live his life have a higher ROI and beats every professional companies with their complex algorithm in the last decade. The same goes for Bitcoin.
The macro eventually always beat the micro.
- Mr Cicero
@CiceroCompass
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Most people look at the price charts now and are stressed, emotional and panicking. Are u one of them? If u are, it means u are investing wrongly. Don’t ever over invest what u can’t afford. If u want, go look at charts like supply flow out of exchange, long and short term holders charts and more.
We are micro bearish and macro bullish. This is an extended bull cycle and the longer it drags, the higher the peak will be. There are a lot of people saying we have entered a bear market. These amateurs are looking at price charts making wild guesses. A bear market or crypto winter won’t happen without a parabolic top.
Now let’s look at the short term. When price is going down, u have to ask:
Who is selling and why?
The price charts won’t tell u why and won’t tell u the true story. Price charts will only cause u to go on a roller coaster ride of emotion especially if u are doing futures trading. U have to ask why is there supply shock yet prices are going down? The price charts are contradicting the metrics. By now u should already know why.
I am 100% certain because I don’t look at price charts. That’s like watching news on TV and believing the story they want u to hear.
Short term is unpredictable. Its possible we go down further. But macro wise, we are 100% still in a bull cycle. However, there is no way to predict accurate timeline.
BTC is the place to be. Make sure more den 50% of your portfolio is in BTC. The rest of my portfolio are mostly gaming/metaverse coins. If they continue dropping, that’s good. Use your BTC to accumulate more to balance it. Hold and stay in the game. As long as u are in SPOT, u have nothing to be worried about.
STOP looking at price charts and go live your life. Don’t let the price charts control u. We will hit beyond 100K this cycle. Let time and the whales do whatever they need to do.
Go enjoy the holidays.
- Mr Cicero
@CiceroCompass
This is a simple liquidation event that causes panic, fear and stress to the public. Ask yourself, how are u feeling right now? That is what everyone is also feeling. It is an orchestrated event to cause fear, uncertainty, stress, panic and doubt.
This is a temporary move. Just continue to stay in SPOT. But if u are holding onto leverage futures play, good luck to u. I said repeatedly not touch futures because before the supercycle, the whales will liquidate and accumulate as much as they can.
This is part of a page written in my recent report.
- Mr Cicero
@CiceroCompass