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Sei Airdrop
As mentioned in a previous report, the airdrop has been confirmed and those who took advantage of the opportunity at that time should have qualified.
The window of opportunity is closing, and it may already be closed.
Those who still want to try can do so. The testnet is still live.
It's free and it's done quickly.
Here is a short thread: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1665723262179868673?s=20
Are we on the brink of witnessing the long-awaited Altcoin Season?
- TOTAL2 breakout
- Continuous Retest
- Early Reversal Signs
Read more: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1664988538457169920?s=20
The Bitcoin on-chain accumulation score is warming up
• Small Bitcoin holders (under 1BTC) have been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin over the past three months.
• Large Bitcoin holders have been distributing their coins, likely due to exchanges reallocating holdings.
• The "accumulation score" shows Bitcoin holder sentiment. Despite stagnant BTC price in May, the score rose, suggesting optimism among holders.
• This bullish sentiment might not be enough to significantly push the market higher.
• CME Bitcoin futures market shows a lack of enthusiasm as the premium over the spot market decreases, open interest remains stagnant, and net positions of hedge funds and asset managers remain unchanged.
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1664225720929755136?s=20
Regulatory Developments of This Week
• Huobi HK extends services in Hong Kong amid new regulatory regime.
• China hints at softer cryptocurrency stance with a plan to foster Web3 development.
• Republicans in the US block Biden's proposed 30% tax on crypto mining firms.
• LBRY files a brief that could aid Ripple Finance in their ongoing SEC lawsuit.
• Ripple vs. SEC case outcome could influence future crypto regulation.
Note: Watch the outcome of the U.S. debt ceiling agreement. Possible short-term opportunities. If the agreement is passed, then the price will reflect it. High volatility (very likely). Protect your positions.
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1663847950395617280?s=20
Market - This Week
Tuesday
• US - CB Consumer Confidence (MAY)
• China - Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
Wednesday
• US - JOLTs Job Openings (APR)
• Canada - GDP (MAR)
• Germany - CPI Inflation (MAY)
• Germany - Unemployment (MAY)
Thursday
• US - ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
• US - ADP Employment (MAY)
• UK - Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
• Europe - CPI Inflation (MAY)
Friday
• US - Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY)
• US - Unemployment (MAY)
Note: As mentioned in the TAO section yesterday, keep these unlocks in mind.
• Optimism token unlock this week (around $250M/ 3.6%) - 31 May
• 1inch token unlock this week (around $99M/ 16.7%) - 02 Jun
Interest rate derivatives in crypto
• Crypto interest rate derivatives struggled in 2022.
• Voltz and IPOR boosted the sector in 2023 by introducing DeFi interest rate swaps.
IPOR Protocol
• DeFi protocol enabling Interest Rates Derivatives on Ethereum.
• IPOR v1: IPOR Index, IPOR AMM, liquidity pools, and Asset Management contracts.
• (New) IPOR v2 aims to become the central hub for DeFi credit, connecting diverse markets.
• Will leverage Ethereum staking and liquid staking derivatives for new risk management tools.
• IPOR v2 will bridge DeFi and traditional finance rates, facilitating arbitrage.
• Launch July
Voltz
• Interest Rate Swaps for Volatile Yields
• Utilizes a concentrated liquidity virtual AMM mechanism
• vAMMs are virtual liquidity pools used for price discovery, not spot trading
• Traders provide liquidity to each other in vAMMs, enabling leveraged positions
• vAMMs use funding rate mechanisms to incentivize accurate price tracking
• Voltz V2 allows Voltz to act as a base layer for derivatives trading
• (New) SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) rates on Avalanche
(Source: delphidigital)
Your feedback is important to us. Thank you for providing it and for the messages 🙂
Today we have another Altcoin Market Update for you.
- Litecoin (LTC)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Polygon (MATIC)
- Polkadot (DOT)
- The Graph (GRT)
- Avalanche (AVAX)
- Anker (ANKR)
- Lido Dao (LDO)
Charts and updates: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1662214161177403392?s=20
Altcoin Market Update
- Chainlink (LINK)
- Stacks (STX)
- Cosmos (ATOM)
- Solana (SOL)
- Oasis Protocol (ROSE)
- Power Ledger (POWR)
Charts and updates: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661839479680671746?s=20
Note: React with 🔥 if the future updates should always be with a chart.
Update for Altcoin Report buyers
If you followed the first rule of the report and got a good entry, you know that some alts are performing well right now, especially considering that the whole market went down.
If you have read the report, you know that these are not pump & dump tokens.
And one altcoin performs notably well.
Check the Twitter page of this project and you will know why.
If you want, you can also derisk this position
(If you haven't already done that last night after the run).
But keep in mind that the narrative has not yet occurred and there are still some catalysts that are coming up in the next months. Look closely at the updates from the project and be smart.
We have also seen on-chain activities that have frontrun the news and are still holding.
Probably insiders.
We will continue to monitor it and keep you up to date.
Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)
Digital Asset Fund Flows - weekly
• Digital asset investments experienced a fifth consecutive week of outflows, reaching $232M.
• Weekly trading volumes were 40% below the average for the year.
• The broader market saw its lowest trading volume since late 2020, at $20Bn.
• Germany had the most significant outflows $24M, followed by the US $5M and Switzerland $3.3M.
• Minor inflows occurred in Brazil $1.3M and Canada $2.2M.
• Bitcoin saw outflows of $33M, marking a consistent five-week decline.
• Short-bitcoin experienced minor outflows of $1.3M.
• Despite overall negative sentiment, altcoins (except Ethereum) saw inflows, led by Avalanche and Litecoin.
• Blockchain equity ETFs reported a slight outflow of $2M for the second week in a row.
Update on the Ripple vs. SEC Case
• The SEC vs. Ripple Labs case was reopened due to newly unsealed documents potentially favoring Ripple.
• Ripple Labs obtained documents associated with a 2018 SEC speech discussing ETH and XRP.
• Despite SEC's resistance, Judge Torres ordered a public release of these documents.
• The public versions of the documents are due for release on June 13th.
• Ripple's confidence seems to be high as they expand and invest, possibly due to the contents of these documents.
• The documents may contain information contradicting the SEC's cryptocurrency regulations.
• Experts predict Ripple may face fines for early XRP sales, but future sales and the token might not be considered securities.
• The case's outcome could affect other crypto firms and potentially influence altcoin prices.
(Source: ReflexivityResearch)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661125826006466560?s=20
Tether Announces Bitcoin Purchase Program
• Will allocate 15% of its net realized operating profits towards buying Bitcoin
• Made a $1.48 billion profit in Q1 2023, largely due to high interest rates
• $1.5 billion in BTC and $3.4 billion of gold as reserves
• Tether has been able to back their stablecoins with short duration assets, earn yield, and retain it
• The Bitcoin purchases could help counteract sell pressure on Bitcoin in high-interest environments
• This strategy may also offset selling pressure from liquidation of seized assets and Mt. Gox repayments
• If other stablecoin issuers adopt this strategy, it could lead to more positive flows for Bitcoin
(Source: ReflexivityResearch)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660913545175785473?s=20
Debt Ceiling and Implications for Liquidity and Market
• The U.S. has hit its debt ceiling in 2023, leading to a funds crisis as its Treasury General Account (TGA) is at a low of $57 billion.
• Once the debt ceiling is resolved, the Treasury aims to boost the TGA to $550 billion by issuing new debt, either as bills (short term), coupons (medium term ), or bonds (long term).
• Depending on the type of debt issued, different market actors would be the primary buyers: Money Market Funds for short-term, banks for medium-term (unlikely, unless the Fed relaxes the Supplementary Liquidity Ratio), and possibly the Federal Reserve for long-term debt.
• The decision of who becomes the primary buyer will significantly impact market liquidity and could lead to major market effects.
(Source: ReflexivityResearch)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660639524752433154?s=20
Get ready to dive deep into the world of crypto.
This week's issue is a gold mine of reports you won't want to miss!
Crypto Bullets TL;DR: @cryptobullets_bot
Take a ride on Bitcoin's thrilling roller coaster, from its triumphant return as Digital Gold to the historical halving events.
In this issue:
• The Halving and Catalyst to Drive the Bitcoin Price Up
• Bitcoin's Next Move
• Economic Overview
• Altcoin and Protocol Updates
• 7 Altcoin TA
• Key Industry News from the past week
We've curated the most pivotal reports and bundled them in our latest CryptoBullets TL;DR issue, just for you.
Latest issue: @cryptobullets_bot
So, sit back get the new issue, grab a coffee, and enjoy all the important information waiting for you.
Don't wait, get the edge now!
Stablecoins - Update
• Tether plans to invest up to 15% of its stablecoin profits into Bitcoin
• Regulation on stablecoins is under progress, with likely differentiation between Fed-regulated "payment stablecoins" and others
• USDC is likely to qualify as a payment stablecoin, while USDT will not due to its diverse backing assets
• Uncertainty over stablecoin issuers getting access to Fed Master Accounts
• If DeFi becomes mainstream, safe collateral may become insufficient for all stablecoins
• Stablecoin innovations continue, exploring alternatives to government-backed options
• DeFi protocols are also expanding their stablecoin offerings and developing their own solutions
Bitcoin's next move
We'll show you what you can expect in the coming weeks and months.
In this week's issue:
- Bitcoin: Short-term, Mid-term & Long-term
- Backtest Signals
- BTC Cycle Analysis
- 10 Altcoin TA
- 3 additional opportunities for an airdrop
- Narratives and information for new opportunities
- Key News
Get the new issue here: @cryptobullets_bot
Those who seized the opportunity last week were rewarded with profits. You have seen it.
Monthly subscribers will get a surprise next week.
Grab your TL;DR issue and enjoy your Sunday.
Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1665390040854216705?s=20
Opportunities on Starknet
The zk narrative is not here yet, but once it comes many projects in the ecosystems will benefit. Here are four projects that can be tested and will most likely have an airdrop.
- zkLend
- Layerswap
- Briq
- JediSwap
Here you can find some easy ways to qualify for the possible airdrops: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1664635423228932098?s=20
If you used the token unlock information from the last free Crypto Bullets issue, you should be in profit.
Great work!
1inch dip was not that big, but you have to keep in mind that the unlock is still to come.
One possibility is to secure these positions.
Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1663908643358556162?s=20
State of Crypto Market Structure
• Crypto trading volumes declined significantly
• Binance's market share has decreased to 56%, benefiting other exchanges like Huobi, Kraken, and Kucoin
• Offshore exchanges, making up 86% of volume, and decentralized exchanges, are likely to grow due to US regulatory uncertainty
• Liquidity for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains flat, leading to higher market volatility
• TUSD's activity has grown on centralized exchanges, while BUSD's has declined
• Stablecoins, especially Tether, dominate trading pairs on centralized exchanges
• Decentralized exchange volumes are steadily increasing (Uniswap dominating) relative to centralized exchanges
_
Digital Asset Fund Flows - weekly
• Digital assets had the 6th week of outflows ($39M) totaling $272M
• Trading volumes were low last week, at 58% of this year’s average
• Bitcoin saw outflows of $11M; short-bitcoin saw a 36% decrease in AuM (also $11M)
• Altcoins had outflows: Algorand $8M and Ethereum $5.9M; Litecoin and Uniswap had minor inflows
• Blockchain equities had outflows of $3.4M last week
New CryptoBullets Issue for Free
We've listened, we've learned, and now we're leveling up!
Following the invaluable feedback we received from you last week, we are thrilled to announce that starting next week, we're going to supercharge your experience with enhanced insights, specifically tailored for you.
There will also be some surprises waiting for you next week. Stay tuned!
In the meantime, grab a cup of coffee, read the new CryptoBullets issue and enjoy your Sunday.
Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)
Who Has The Bitcoin? A Closer Look At The Bitcoin Supply
• Around 47% of Bitcoin supply is traceable; 4 million are lost.
• Major Bitcoin holders include exchanges, Grayscale Trust, and companies like MicroStrategy.
• Binance and Coinbase hold the majority of Bitcoin on exchanges.
• Long-term Bitcoin holding is historically high, and coins on exchanges are decreasing.
• Bitcoin's 'illiquid supply' (held by entities), rarely sold coins, is at an all-time high.
• Bitcoin's supply is becoming more distributed, especially among smaller, retail holders.
• Large Bitcoin holdings often represent custodians for many users.
• Bitcoin ownership is transparent and easily auditable.
• Bitcoin adoption is widespread and growing, further distributing its supply.
(Source: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1662341142208192513?s=20
Updates (P.1)
Kwenta
• Kwenta outperforms GMX in trading volume due to reduced trading fees and an incentives program.
Bitcoin Inscriptions
• Bitcoin inscriptions and marketplace volumes are dropping, indicating reduced interest.
Change in Apple's Position on Crypto Integrations
• Crypto product STEPN integrates Apple Pay, simplifying the crypto experience and encouraging adoption.
Ethereum Security
• Vitalik discourages reliance on Ethereum validators for fund recovery in case of exploits or bugs.
• Bridges that wrap assets are seen as risky, with atomic swaps recommended instead.
• Validiums are preferred over sidechains for their enhanced security.
Cosmos Security Model Updates
• Cosmos introduces "Replicated Security" and develops new security models to cover validator running costs.
• Besides Replicated Security, Opt-in Security and Mesh Security models are under development.
Germany enters recession, dollar charges back
• The US dollar shows strength despite a challenging fiscal outlook.
• China's devaluation of the yuan indicates weak global demand.
• Germany is in recession due to decreased global demand, raising questions about the US.
• The US economy remains resilient, with no expected recession until 2024 at the earliest.
• Commodity prices and housing markets show potential deflationary pressures due to a strong dollar and high interest rates.
• Corporate bonds appear to be acting normally despite these pressures.
• Bitcoin's price action could indicate a shift in its correlation with traditional stocks.
(Source: TheBitcoinLayer)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661815692729917452?s=20
Bitcoin is decoupling from risk assets
• Is showing a declining correlation with the stock market.
• BTC and stock market still show similar long-term trends, but day-to-day factors are changing.
• BTC-related stocks have varying levels of correlation with BTC, with holding companies showing the highest.
• Large BTC miners have shown the most correlation with BTC.
• BTC and ETH remain highly correlated; Bitcoin and gold's correlation is slightly increasing.
• Bitcoin derivatives show a slowing uptrend and balanced positions between long and short BTC.
• "Max pain strike (at $37k)" and the current BTC price have a significant gap, suggesting potential volatility.
(Source: Ecoinometrics)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1661631426045804544?s=20
Market Insights
• Traditional 60/40 investment portfolios had the worst performance ever last year.
• Shahidi's "eBalanced" portfolio offers similar returns but less risk.
• Investors are increasingly interested in instruments with positive real yields.
• The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility and money market funds are gaining popularity.
• High-risk 0DTE equity options are now 45% of traded S&P 500 options.
• The Fed is urged to reconsider its rate hiking strategy.
• The Fed has failed to significantly reduce its balance sheet post-2008 crisis.
• The rising student loan debt and forgiveness proposals risk creating a moral hazard.
• Debt cancellation may increase the federal deficit, potentially leading to higher taxes.
• Economists warn that debt cancellation could negatively impact credit incentives.
(Source: TheBitcoinLayer)
New Bitcoin 2023 Highs More Likely As Time Goes On?
• BTC confirms bearish trends, closing below $27600 for the second week
• Increased rejection and sell-side volume could trigger a downside continuation
• BTC currently finds support at the 200-week MA
• On a monthly scale, BTC is within a sparsely supported $23300-$28900 range
• If no retest (2015-like retest) of the lowering Macro Downtrend occurs soon, it might become unfeasible
• $22500 is the Macro Downtrend retest zone for May
• $21100 for June
• Four Year Cycle suggests a drop below $20k, but higher than $15500 in early 2024
• If no Macro Downtrend retest soon (May, June, July, latest August), BTC may see new 2023 highs before a 2024 drop
(Source: Rekt Capital)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660967134036361220?s=20
How will Bitcoin be affected by the contraction of the money supply?
• Contraction of the money supply (M2) is rare and is happening for the first time in 60 years.
• This could impact Bitcoin in two ways: reduced liquidity (less "new" money for investment) and decreased perception of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.
• Historically, M2 changes haven't strongly correlated with Bitcoin prices, except post-COVID.
• Since 2020, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets like stocks has increased, making it more susceptible to traditional liquidity factors.
• If M2 contraction lasts long, Bitcoin might be negatively impacted.
• Experts predict the contraction will continue until a recession prompts the Federal Reserve to initiate Quantitative Easing, which could then positively affect Bitcoin. But until then, Bitcoin may face volatility.
(Source: ECOINOMETRICS)
RT, like & follow us also on twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1660698777085198341?s=20
This week, you will all get Crypto Bullets for free. We are changing the format.
$1650 in current subscriptions, you will get it from me, summarized, right here, one by one. You will know the source, and key takeaways.
If you like what you see, you can subscribe for further.
If not, at least maybe these bullets will find you well.
Thanks,
The Alchemic One (TAO)
Level Finance
Decentralized, non-custodial perpetual exchange
read more: https://twitter.com/cryptoBLTS/status/1659659786038681604?s=20
xNFTs (Solana ecosystem)
• Executable NFTs (xNFTs), combining NFTs and applications in one tokenized asset
• Can be executed within a Web3 wallet called “Backpack,” eliminating the need for external applications
• Are still experimental and limited to Solana and the Backpack wallet
• Function using executable programming scripts, with assets and code combined into one asset
• Backpack is an xNFT operating system for deploying, discovering, and executing xNFT apps
• React xNFT is a framework for building executable NFTs
• Coral, the team behind xNFTs and Backpack, has developed Anchor, a popular open-source framework for Solana app development in Rust