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An archive of tweets, threads, articles, blog posts etc. that I find interesting within crypto
https://x.com/resdegen/status/1909871881726894459?t=I3OtgDDcwQNT1KG3wTOxyQ&s=19
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Final $ETH capitulation before higher?
Or is it truly over?
The introduction of global trade tariffs has marked a change in world order we have not seen in more than 50 years. Free trade has been the key component that has spurred increases in productivity and economic growth that has led to the biggest secular bull run the world has ever seen. Marking a shift from an open to a protectionist stance will have ramifications that will take years to play out, unless Trump is to fully U-turn on his tariff plans. I view this as a very low possibility. This will be a considerable headwind to global risk on assets over the giga long term.
Crypto wise, the structural decline of active devs in recent times is probably the most worrying thing to me. Back in the last cycle we could look at developer activity and take solace knowing that our industry was still benefiting from a secular tailwind. Fast forward 2-3 years and not only have we produced nothing of particular interest or importance, but the outlook for the future is even worse than it was then.
In the past cycle we had the promise of ETFs to look forward to, a better regulatory regime under a pro-crypto administration as light at the end of the tunnel. Now that it’s here and it’s (once again) underwhelmed expectations, i see very little on the horizon that can generate escape velocity from crypto’s natural Ouroboros.
Over the next few weeks to months i hope to do less in crypto, both on the long or short side as I believe that to be the wisest thing to do. It’s no longer contrarian to be a believer waiting for the new bull market. It is however contrarian to begin exploring new greenfields.
https://x.com/art_xbt/status/1909471043888336941
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https://x.com/DarkCryptoLord/status/1909264533652381716?t=4WLhvoLu5Wz0TPQQcSxkmQ&s=19
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INTEL: The Fed will hold a closed board meeting on April 7
https://x.com/solidintel_x/status/1909221160471965965
Warren Buffett chilling with $400 billion on the sideline waiting to scoop up quality stocks
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Good post
https://fxtwitter.com/JiraiyaReal/status/1909170187842003268
https://x.com/krugermacro/status/1909049424975900941?t=Tz0qfqKlQQyOSdfABzdyxg&s=19
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lost 47k today. -7.64% of my crypto portfolio.
i had it coming. fully deserved.
didn't stick to the plan, could not sit on my hands until good conditions for my trading style returned. driven to take trades outside of my area of expertise, mainly perps trading and catching bottoms with size (despite me knowing that i have a horrible track record with that). i previously talked about how many people fuck up with that and i knew i was in a bad lane. but couldn't prevent it.
prime example of the big difference between knowing what the right thing to do is and the ability to actually execute on that. execution and ability to adapt are the only real persistent edges.
maybe the pain i feel today is the needed catalyst to step my game up. a warning shot. i remember summer 24 when i fucked up huge and lost a ton of money by a string of bad decisions. the pain i felt was the fuel to overhaul all process and i went on a generational run shortly after (over 1.5m in profits which i still have). i vividly remember back in the days i met a guy in the yard who did multiple terms previously. and he said smth to me that sticked with me. he said "i lived in 5-star hotels and i lived in prison cells and my thinking was clearest when in the later and got more and more opaque the more time i spend in the former." at first i didn't understand it fully, but now i do. he built his process while on the inside and when he got out he took action according to his protocol, and the more money he made and the more he lived the good life the more he deviated from this process. i think the exact same thing is happening to me right now. i built my process after i got a big wound, executed, made money and got complacent. as evident by me on-chain performance lately. once a killer, now nothing more than mere exit liquidity. time to tear it all down, read the old journal entires, re-build the entire process and come back stronger.
i need to re-start. from the ground up. first step is to stop perps trading and knife catching completely. on-chain is where i made the vast majority of my money. i need to sit on my hands and wait for opportunity. and work on my process in the mean time. also i need to work on my mental. entered a big depression after the Trump trade (despite me making a quarter million dollar on that, i know its kafkaesque but it is what it is) and as a result i think i have developed an alcohol addiction and are now on the brink of alcoholism. first i need to take care of that and get my mental in order and then i need to go back to the drawing board. will take a break and come back when time is right. see you in the order books.
definitely some bearish guys out here. 30 min to Nasdaq open. think we will get extreme swings. if this is the bottom crypto altcoins should go up a lot here.
but if nasdaq opens heavy in red, then...
Personally don't buy the thesis that BTC is a hedge for what's going on in the world.
I agree with Ryan here.
https://fxtwitter.com/warren_muppets/status/1908841882823643237?t=YpYnX2ELtjJG4HWLcKxKsQ&s=19
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On a more serious note, I am running a test where I am long 20% $HYPE, 20% $SOL and short 60% $BTC.
Small part of my portfolio.
So many alts to short with relatively low mcap.
Do you even know any from this list?
Zero.
$ETH is not only weak vs BTC, but it's even been weak vs altcoins for months now
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https://x.com/binji_x/status/1909341620140753065
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Bottom is not in before this guy deletes his Twitter
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GLOBAL MARKET MELTDOWN DEEPENS ⚠️
Asia:
*Japan’s Nikkei 225 Entered A Bear Market
*South Korea Kospi Index Fall 7%, Singapore's Equity Benchmark Fall 9%
*Taiwan’s tech-heavy equity benchmark slid 9.7%, the most on record, India’s key stock index slumped as much as 5%, the most since early June
*Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index Closes Down 13.2%, Biggest One-Day Drop Since 1997
CHINA:
*CSI Index Fall 7%
*China is mulling frontloaded stimulus to counter the tariffs
*Asia Credit Default Swaps Widen Most Since March 2020
*MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid by the most since 2008
Europe Open Lower:
*DAX plunged more than 10% at the open before trimming losses now down 7%, Stoxx 600 fell more than 5%, FTSE 100 Index Falls 5%
UNITED STATES:
*Traders now expect the Fed to cut another five times this year
*Goldman Sachs Cuts 2025 GDP Forecast To 0.5% From 1%
*S&P 500 FUTURES DOWN 3.5%, NASDAQ 100 FUTURES DOWN 4%, RUSSELL 2000 FUTURES DOWN 4.3%
*VIX Surge Above 50
*OIL Fall 5%, Hits 4 Year Low
Pre-Market Open:
APPLE DOWN 5%
MICROSOFT DOWN 5%
GOOGLE DOWN 5%
NVIDIA DOWN 6%
META DOWN 5%
AMAZON DOWN 5%
TESLA DOWN 8%
COINBASE DOWN 11%
MICROSTRATEGY DOWN 12%
CRYPTO:
*BTC DROPPED BELOW $76K, ETH DROPPED BELOW $1,500
There's a lot of doomposting today and that's understandable - a lot of people are panicky and in a lot of pain. However despite what you read on the Internet, in majority of cases even if we resolve lower, things don't go down in a straight line. I think what we've alr witnessed (especially after today's 5% move down on pre-market futures) is an extreme event that warrants a bid.
I'll be looking to play LTF bounces on BTC and SOL that I can scalp in and out of whilst also stacking more corn for the long term if we go lower.
closed this and starting to slowly long here.
wish me luck
People need to stop using this argument for real.
this is not Covid and we will not have a V-reversal
I still think BTC holds up really well.
Almost impressed.
https://fxtwitter.com/mnltrades/status/1908870409728012790
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