Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

30 Jun 2024 08:18

You're invited to join us for our next episode of Telegram Live! We'll be discussing the latest trends in the commodities market.

We look forward to seeing you there on Sunday, June 30th, at 8 PM.


/channel/CommodityFocusByKotakSecurities?livestream

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

20 Jun 2024 12:39

Thanks to USDCNH, USDINR has made a fresh all time high..

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

02 Jun 2024 07:49

Speculative Sentiment Barometer: Major Commodities in US Exchanges


The sentiment oscillators, ranging between 0 and 100, provide insights into market sentiment. When the oscillator is closer to 0, it indicates that, based on more than 15 years of historical data, speculative sentiment is at its most bearish. This suggests a high level of pessimism among market participants, with a prevailing belief that prices are likely to decline.

Conversely, when the oscillator approaches 100, it signifies that speculative sentiment is at its most bullish. This implies an elevated level of optimism among traders and investors, with a strong expectation that prices will rise.

In summary, the sentiment oscillators offer a gauge of market sentiment, with lower values indicating bearish sentiment and higher values indicating bullish sentiment, based on historical trends spanning over 15 years.


Check the charts below: 🔽🔽🔽

Disc: https://bit.ly/KsecDisclaimer - Kotak Securities

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

25 May 2024 10:51

Indian has had a super stable year till now

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

26 Apr 2024 17:09

Do Join our KOTAK SECURITIES COMMODITY RESEARCH CHANNEL:

We offer trading recommendations, views, analysis and more.

/channel/CommodityFocusByKotakSecurities

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

19 Apr 2024 04:58

Amidst the chatter on media and social media about Iran's potential to close the Straits of Hormuz, it's crucial to consider the complexities and ramifications of such a scenario. The Strait serves as a vital international shipping lane, facilitating the transportation of a substantial portion of the world's oil and gas supply.

However, the notion of Iran easily shutting down the Strait overlooks several key factors. Firstly, the Strait's status as an international waterway means that any attempt by Iran to disrupt its operations would likely be perceived as a form of blackmail by the global community. Such aggressive military action could trigger serious repercussions and potentially prompt the involvement of multinational forces.

Moreover, it's essential to recognize that the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is distinct from the Israeli context. While tensions in the region are multifaceted, any Iranian aggression towards the Strait would primarily be viewed through the lens of international security and maritime commerce, rather than direct ties to Israel.

In essence, the prospect of Iran attacking the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions. Such a move would not only disrupt global energy markets but also provoke a unified response from the international community. Thus, while Iran may possess the capability to interfere with the Strait's operations, the potential consequences of such actions make it a risky and challenging endeavor.

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

19 Apr 2024 04:04

Explosions have been reported near the cities of Isfahan and Natanz in central #Iran, both of which contain important facilities of #Iran's nuclear program


Explosions have been reported near the cities of Isfahan and Natanz in central #Iran, both of which contain important facilities of #Iran's nuclear program


⚡️ABC News report: #Israel attacked 9 targets in #Iran

⚡️US official confirms to ABC News that Israel carried out strike inside Iran

⚡️Israel's Channel 13: Israel also attacked a base from where missiles were fired at Israel.

⚡️Significant re-routing of commercial planes amid closure of key parts of Iranian airspace

⚡️NOTAM announcement for Tehran air space

⚡️Announcement of no-fly zone for the western region of Iran

⚡️The US vetoes a resolution allowing the state of Palestine to join the United Nations as a full member.

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

16 Apr 2024 19:45

USDINR at 83.70 spot reference.

Looks offshore traders will have all the fun

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

15 Apr 2024 04:42

Some important data points to be released from UK and US this week, along with China...

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

13 Apr 2024 23:08

When all are short vol, a significant volatility shock can be brutal

Stay alert and enjoy the ride

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

13 Apr 2024 09:45

CFTC REPORT:

The COT report is a weekly publication by the CFTC, providing data on futures positions, long or short, for various derivatives traded on the US exchanges. It categorises speculators as retail, large, asset managers and leveraged money. Traders use it to understand market sentiment and potential trends. It's valuable for investors and analysts for making informed decisions. The report is released every Friday and related to positions as on Tuesday.



What is a PERCENTILE?


Ans:

Percentile is a statistical concept used to describe the relative position of a particular value within a larger set of values. It is commonly used to analyse and interpret data.

In simple terms, think of a percentile as a way to rank or divide a set of data into 100 equal parts. Each part represents a percentage of the total data. For example, the 50th percentile represents the middle value of the data set, dividing it into two equal halves. The 25th percentile represents the value below which 25% of the data falls, and the 75th percentile represents the value below which 75% of the data falls.

Percentiles are often used to understand how a particular data point compares to the rest of the data set. For example, if a student scores in the 90th percentile on a standardized test, it means they scored higher than 90% of the other test takers. ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

12 Apr 2024 19:48

Keep an eye on Iran and Israel tensions.

There are two ways to gather information :

Official news handles and portals

Open source intelligence Twitter handles - OSINT

The former can be more authentic but delayed and may lack depth

Latter can be quick and more pervasive but can be prone to large scale misinformation

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

10 Apr 2024 06:16

CPI is tonight @ 6 pm IST

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

08 Apr 2024 04:11

ECB meeting, FOMC meeting minutes, US CPI are some of the major economic data this week

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

05 Apr 2024 06:05

Brent is back above 91 , US Fed members are toning down their calls for rate cuts and US yield curve is witnessing a bear steepening and global stocks are at lofty levels..

Interesting mix.

We also need to watch Geo politics.. lot of rumbling happening in South China Sea, Straits of Hormuz, in Pakistan and Gilgit Balchistan

Interesting times ahead

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

26 Jun 2024 07:29

India recorded a current account surplus in Q4 FY24 primarily due to significant US Dollar purchases during the January-March period. This prevented the Rupee from appreciating against the USD despite the latter's weakness in global markets.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened heavily in the spot market, absorbing 73% of the total capital inflows in FY24. This intervention prevented the Rupee from appreciating and helped maintain a stable current account balance.

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

20 Jun 2024 05:31

The offshore yuan has fallen to its lowest level since November last year as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) loosens its control over the currency.

While there has been no major movement, this trend suggests that China's strategy of strengthening the yuan to boost foreign investor sentiment in domestic equities might be faltering. The Chinese economy has been struggling for an extended period, with its investments in the manufacturing sector peaking, while the construction and real estate sectors are already facing significant challenges. The consumption engine has always been weak in China, a consequence of its investment and export-led growth model.

We will continue to monitor the yuan closely. If it continues to weaken against the US dollar, it could negatively impact other Asian currencies, such as the Indian rupee.


This may fuel a new leg of demand from Chinese citizens for Gold and Silver as they fear more devaluation in Yuan.


Disc: https://www.kotaksecurities.com/disclaimer/commodities - Kotak Securities

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

28 May 2024 06:47

5 day Positional Call by Kotak Securities

BUY HDFCLIFE

Current Market Price - ₹ 572

Stop Loss Price - ₹ 560

Target - ₹ 585, ₹ 595


Want research delivered as an SMS? Click here - https://bit.ly/Ksec_ResearchSMS

__________________________

For Detailed Research Report: www.kotaksecurities.com

Disclaimer: https://bit.ly/DisclaimerKSLResearch

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

25 May 2024 08:31

Speculative Sentiment Barometer: Major Commodities in US Exchanges


The sentiment oscillators, ranging between 0 and 100, provide insights into market sentiment. When the oscillator is closer to 0, it indicates that, based on more than 15 years of historical data, speculative sentiment is at its most bearish. This suggests a high level of pessimism among market participants, with a prevailing belief that prices are likely to decline.

Conversely, when the oscillator approaches 100, it signifies that speculative sentiment is at its most bullish. This implies an elevated level of optimism among traders and investors, with a strong expectation that prices will rise.

In summary, the sentiment oscillators offer a gauge of market sentiment, with lower values indicating bearish sentiment and higher values indicating bullish sentiment, based on historical trends spanning over 15 years.


Check the charts below: 🔽🔽🔽

Disc: https://bit.ly/KsecDisclaimer - Kotak Securities

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

19 Apr 2024 08:40

Consensus is that Brent’s $90 per barrel price tag includes some $5 in political premium.

The political premium includes tankers avoiding sailing through the Red Sea, upending efficient supply from traditional routes, changing trade flows and adding costs.

And the oil price also reflects Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries that shut in runs and limit product exports.

Wars in the West Asia are not new, and supply has been disrupted in the past. West Asia has 6 million barrels per day in spare capacity, including Iran.

A chunk of this spare capacity and the daily 18 million b/d in exports through the Strait of Hormuz that are primary targets when Mideast wars escalate.

source: @EI

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

19 Apr 2024 04:47

Oil prices this morning, WTI and Brent

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

17 Apr 2024 05:26

Wish you a very happy Shri Ram Navami

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

16 Apr 2024 19:43

Powell says there has been a 'lack of progress' this year on inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/powell-cites-lack-of-progress-this-year-in-reaching-feds-inflation-goal.html

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

14 Apr 2024 11:16

Now the ball is in Israel's court.


Their officials are warning of unprecedented response, possibly within 48 hours.

The situation in West Asia remains quite fluid. There are games within games that are at play and not everything can be discussed.

All we can say is, 2024 is going to be a super eventful year. Trade smartly and safely. ☺️☺️☺️

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

13 Apr 2024 21:34

West Asia update:



Iran may have launched drones towards Israel to attack military targets per U.S. and Israeli officials to Axios.


Various OSINT handles reporting possible large GPS jamming underway across Israel.

Jordan may have closed its airspace

US Airforce jets and Israeli jets could be on CAP duty

Reports of possible airspace closure over Iran and Israel as well

Israel may be expecting something tonight


Again these are private handles and on ground situations can be completely different.

We will keep a close watch on West Asia.

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

12 Apr 2024 19:48

There are OSINT reports of barrage of rockets headed towards Northern Israel, which is getting intercepted by Patriot missiles, part of the Iron Done.

It is being suspected that this could be an attempt to Exhaust the Stocks of Israeli Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries in the North of the Country, before a Larger Attack using Land-Attack Cruise and other more Advanced Missiles

We will keep you updated as market implications are large.

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

10 Apr 2024 17:25

In the face of continued robust US global commodity prices despite a thriving economy, controlling inflation is proving increasingly arduous. Traders' expectations for rate cuts by the Fed have dwindled from six or seven to barely two by the end of 2024. However, the lingering anticipation of Fed generosity, especially during an election year, sustains hopes for further rate reductions.

Should commodity prices persist in their upward trajectory alongside a resilient economic growth outlook and buoyant equity markets, the macroeconomic landscape may pose significant challenges for central banks in the forthcoming quarters. The global market finds itself in an unprecedented situation where the US rate cycle remains stagnant despite widespread anticipation of substantial rate cuts, leaving markets ill-prepared for potential shifts.

As volatility, which has been remarkably compressed across currency, commodities, bonds, and equities, threatens to become unhinged, there is a looming possibility of transitioning from a period of exceptional tranquility to one characterized by soaring volatility. It is prudent to prepare for this potential turbulence accordingly.

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

09 Apr 2024 08:15

Kotak's commodity team has a vibrant community on telegram

You can access research, calls and analysis on commodities :

1) Crude oil

2) Natural Gas

3) Gold

4) Silver

Futures and options

/channel/CommodityFocusByKotakSecurities

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

07 Apr 2024 15:40

CFTC REPORT:

The COT report is a weekly publication by the CFTC, providing data on futures positions, long or short, for various derivatives traded on the US exchanges. It categorises speculators as retail, large, asset managers and leveraged money. Traders use it to understand market sentiment and potential trends. It's valuable for investors and analysts for making informed decisions. The report is released every Friday and related to positions as on Tuesday.



What is a PERCENTILE?


Ans:

Percentile is a statistical concept used to describe the relative position of a particular value within a larger set of values. It is commonly used to analyse and interpret data.

In simple terms, think of a percentile as a way to rank or divide a set of data into 100 equal parts. Each part represents a percentage of the total data. For example, the 50th percentile represents the middle value of the data set, dividing it into two equal halves. The 25th percentile represents the value below which 25% of the data falls, and the 75th percentile represents the value below which 75% of the data falls.

Percentiles are often used to understand how a particular data point compares to the rest of the data set. For example, if a student scores in the 90th percentile on a standardized test, it means they scored higher than 90% of the other test takers. ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Currency Corner by Kotak Securities

04 Apr 2024 21:32

https://x.com/CNBCClosingBell/status/1775967436661035481