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Crypto earnings in a nutshell. Support: @fifty_satoshi_support
The earlier the investment, the greater its potential profits. This is not a secret, just a fact.
💁♂️ But how do you buy a coin right at its launch?
This is where launchpads come into play. In the new video, I break down which projects on launchpads I'm focused on and analyze the profitability of such investments.
#BTC - back above $41,000 📈
Bouncing off the support at $38,500, highlighted in the previous analysis, #BTC has started a recovery, breaking through the $41,000 mark with a strong impulse.
🙅♂️ However, the market news does not favor growth. The SEC has delayed the decision on an #ETH ETF. The U.S. plans to sell over $100 million in confiscated Bitcoin. Grayscale continues to sell #BTC, liquidating over $4.4 billion in the last 10 days alone.
Certainly, not all news in the market is negative. While Grayscale is selling, BlackRock and Fidelity are accumulating. In less than 10 days, the companies acquired 45.6k #BTC and 45.3k #BTC, respectively (~$3.6 billion total).
Still, these volumes do not compensate for the strong selling pressure.
📊 On the 4-hour chart, we see that #BTC has not yet returned to the local upward trend. As long as the buyers cannot establish itself above it, the priority remains a continuation of the correction with an attempt by sellers to push below $38,500.
It's 2024, the age where crypto is a complete and advanced financial system.
🔺It provides an alternative to virtually every financial instrument that exist in the modern world, and does that 10x better. Just look:
EU banks offer 6.0% interest in EUR..
While Compound (leading lending protocol) offers an estimated 75% interest in ETH.
Stocks offer average 1.5% return in dividends..
While AAVE (another DeFi protocol) offers 15-20% yield in stablecoins, such as USDT.
♦️Further than that, crypto is the world's best additional income sector, for example:
APT and ARB airdrops required less than 1 hour and $30 investment to earn nearly $1,000.
The Sandbox's virtual properties now valued at $5,000 were initially airdropped to random active players.
I can't emphasize that enough, this market is so big and rich for opportunities that aren't advertised and widely known..
#BTC - evident capital outflow ⚖️
Selling pressure on #BTC is intensifying. Despite buyers stepping in around the lower limit of the ascending structure, a quick look at the order book shows that this support block is losing liquidity by the minute.
📊 While globally #BTC is still in an ascending trend, the current situation hints at a continued correction. Profit-taking, strong miner pressure, and, importantly, the whale capital outflow may provide us with an opportunity to buy below $40,000.
It's because smart money always moves with the best profitability. And it's one of the reasons why #ETH, #SOL and #BNB are on the rise. New markets within their networks offer much more profitability with much lower risks than trading or traditional investments.
👉 We've seen it in 2023 - a significant part of profits was taken by those who adapted to the new market trends. Not just buying random coins; but sustainable capital growth and leveraging new earning methods that decentralized sector has to offer.
#BTC - dropped by 7% in the last 24 hours 📉
It seems that despite common sense, most people were still expecting pump after the launch of the ETF. Failing to see it materialize, traders are starting to liquidate their positions.
Just in the last 24 hours, panic has led short-term holders to withdraw and sell over $5 billion worth of #BTC on exchanges. Now, pay attention. 💁♂️ 80% ($4 billion) of these sales were at a loss.
Meanwhile, the ETF launch itself was successful by all metrics. Nearly $5 billion was traded on the first day, setting a record among all ETFs, surpassing even gold. The overall capital inflow for that day was around $700 million.
👉 This is exactly the situation I was talking about. Despite positive market indicators, #BTC is falling. This is happening because strong hands are pushing weak ones out of the market and building their own positions. And when this "redistribution" is complete, the growth will continue.
#BTC - got rejected from $48,000 🙅♂️
Yesterday, we saw confirmation of what I've been repeating for last couple of months - while the ETF approval will cause market growth in mid term, in the short term, it will trigger a correction.
👉 Take a look at the chart - before the official announcement and start of trading, #BTC was steadily rising, approaching $48,000 again. Immediately after the announcement, we saw a decline.
As rumors were already factored into the price, the market anticipated the ETF launch in advance. Now, attention is shifting to the potential Ethereum ETF, creating new wave of hype. Until this news plays out, I expect a notable increase in interest in #ETH.
💁♂️ While I expect a continuation of #BTC rally, for the ETF launch to greatly impact the crypto cap, it takes time. The new product must gain recognition among traditional market participants. That's precisely why we see active marketing campaigns from ETF issuers.
All 11 issuers of Bitcoin ETFs have filed amendments 19b-4 🪙
This means that the applications are fully ready for SEC approval, and the commission no longer has reasons (at least it seems so now) to deny them.
As I anticipated earlier and as FOX now reports, the commission is currently working to launch all 11 funds at the same time by January 11, which is already next week.
The decision timelines for the applications may vary slightly depending on when they were filed, or the SEC may approve all at once.
👨🏫 The ETF launch could trigger significant market volatility. I've talked about the price movement scenario in this post, so right now I am setting limit orders in case of a plummet. Stay tuned for entry point updates.
#BNB - forming a trend continuation wave structure 🌊
Despite the market correction, #BNB shows strong dynamics, establishing itself above the new support at $300. After a rejection from this level, the coin rebounded back into the area of interest.
Note that the rise to the 3rd wave amounted to 1.618 the length of the 1st wave. The correction towards the peak of the parallel channel is indicative of the development of movement in the 4th wave.
🧑🎓A simple calculations show the peak of the 5th wave in the range of $380 - $395. Before moving higher, there is a high probability of retesting the $300 level.
If this support rejects the sellers once again, I plan to open a long position on #BNB with targets around $380.
It's time to discuss our expectations for the upcoming 2024 🎄
Let's skip price predictions and instead try to understand which trends will be in the spotlight. In 2021, it was DeFi, NFTs, and Metaverse tokens. I think, in this cycle, the focus will be on:
1. Web3 Gaming: Look at global box revenue - gaming has already surpassed the entire entertainment industry. Mobiles lead the way, generating ~$95b annually (9 times more than the entire film industry's profit).
With over 3.2b people playing mobile games, many criticize it for excessive money-grabbing practices. The ability to earn and sell in-game currency could revolutionize this industry. Of course, it's crucial for these games to be fun, and blockchain devs have a hard time achieving that right now 🤷♂️.
2. AI Tokens: Interest in AI is growing. In 2023, we already saw a hype around these projects, with tokens like #RNDR and #AKR surging by 1000%+.
Most experts expect that in the future, AI will be combined with blockchain by default. So, in 2024, we'll likely see even more innovative projects and solutions.
3. DEX: Considering the recent instability around CEXs with lawsuits and cases like FTX, I'm sure that during this cycle, more regular users will start paying attention to decentralized exchanges.
👉 L2 solutions have reduced DEX transaction costs, but newcomers still find them quite challenging to use. The real revolution in this area will occur when people gain access to DeFi without even realizing that they are on the blockchain. I believe in 2024, we'll see the emergence of such tech.
In conclusion, I want to congratulate everyone on the upcoming New Year! In 2024, I wish everyone wealth, health, and a peaceful sky above. Thanks to everyone for your support and interest in my channel; We’re preparing something big for you next year! ❤️🍾
#ETH/#BTC - concluded seven consecutive weeks of trading within a descending range, retesting a solid support since May 2021.
📈 Having gathered the necessary volumes, buyers broke the descending channel with a strong impulse and have already secured above its boundaries. Technical indicators are still in a neutral zone (RSI = 56.177, ADX = 25.760), indicating more room for growth.
We also see a substantial pullback in L1 tokens, coupled with positive dynamics in the top-20 market. As we approach a bullish rally, buyer interest is once again shifting towards fundamentals.
👨🎓 The trend reversal, prolonged accumulation, and bullish cross on the weekly indicate the upper Fibonacci levels should start getting filled one by one and eventually hit 0.077 in the #ETH/#BTC pair.
#BNB - surged by 13% in the last 24 hours, setting a local high above $300. Since CZ's departure in November, #BNB has grown by 32%.
🌪️ Despite the panic surrounding Binance, little has changed for the exchange, with recent legal resolutions working in its favor by minimizing regulatory risks.
Binance's volumes and active user count still surpass other top exchanges by several times; the ecosystem is thriving, and the expected outflow of funds has not occurred.
💁♂️ Also, consider that the number of projects on BSC is growing daily. While Solana is currently the most popular blockchain for smart contracts, this trend could change in an instant. The next hyped DApp on BSC could spike another pump.
In such conditions, I believe #BNB could show quite promising long-term results during the next bull run.
#ETH - while reaching a new yearly high and showing a sustained growth on daily, the coin is displaying modest performance compared to other altcoins. Сombination of factors:
- The SEC has postponed the consideration of applications for an Ethereum ETF from VanEck, ARK Invest, and Grayscale 🤷♂️;
- The hype surrounding smart contracts on Solana has decreased interest in ERC-20 and ecosystem projects on Ethereum;
- Institutional money is currently focused on #BTC.
📊 Despite these challenges, the technical outlook remains strong, with #ETH trading near a trend line of the past year and a half. Buyers continue to dominate the market, with breaking this trend being their top priority.
A sustained move above would confirm the positive scenario, opening up opportunity for long position with a TP around $2760.
#ATOM - has already completed a full double bottom on the daily, establishing a clear upward structure. Right now we see unsuccessful attempts by sellers to push below the lower limit of the liquidity zone at $10.50.
According to the order book, the range between $10.50 and $11.20 is crucial for mid-term speculative accumulation by large wallets. This strong buyer volume profile prevents price from dropping below.
As such, I expect #ATOM to continue trading within the upward structure until reaching strong resistance at the annual highs.
Just entered #ATOM at $10.55. 💁♂️ TP: $15.00.
#BTC - reacted to yesterday's news with a recovery. The Fed's plans to start lowering interest rates soon confirmed. #BTC once again broke through $43,000 and trying to establish itself above.
👨🏫 Looking at the higher timeframes, we can see that #BTC returned to 2022's long-term consolidation channel, marked by a dense volume aggregation. The upper boundary of this zone is at $48,000.
Note that for the last two years, we've had sideways phases before each peak, and while I don't rule out a impulse above $48,000, it might not happen on the first try. In that case, #BTC might be in for another prolonged consolidation.
👉 This also means that within this structure, we could witness several corrections.
But remember, during a rally, phases of consolidations, retraces, and corrections are necessary, and they are always followed by phases of growth. We just need to learn to navigate through these phases and maximize profits on the way up.
So, make the best of it because long-term, #BTC is going up! 📈
#BNB - sending strong signals 📡
While our wave count is not confirmed yet (wave 4's length already exceeds 100% of wave 1 - there might be overlapping waves 1+2), #BNB continues to hold above the $300 level and accumulate volumes.
👨🏫 Look at the chart - the upward crossover of the daily MA50, MA100, MA200 is an extremely bullish signal from a technical analysis perspective. A similar crossover preceded a 4000% increase in #BNB price in 2020-2021.
Although expecting a 4000% rise from current levels might be unrealistic given #BNB already substantial market cap, this is another indicator of strong buyer dominance.
Note that #BNB has already responded with a bounce from the daily MA50.
💡 To obtain final confirmation of the positive scenario, similar to 2020, it's essential to await the breakout of the long-term trendline.
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◼ It's 2024.. but crypto is still advertised as a get-rich-quickly trading market.
While, in fact, crypto is one of the worst markets for trading. Half of the crypto traders I knew went to absolute zero at some point of the past market cycle.
Although I've been trading crypto for life since 2019, my statement is:
◼ Trading sucks.. relatively to what real crypto offers. Now look:
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#ETH - trading above the ascending wedge ⬆️
Despite the correction, the #ETH chart shows numerous bullish signals: long shadows, ascending structure, holding above the trendline, a false breakdown of support - another trap from the market maker.
Considering these factors and technical indicators dipping below neutral, the market is seems like to be gearing up for further growth.
Ascending wedge breakout is also a bullish sign for #ETH. However, given the broader correction, I'd wait for a confident retest of its upper limit before opening positions. If sellers fail to push the price back into the wedge, I'll consider a mid-term long position.
📊 The nearest resistance level for #ETH and our first TP would be around $2760, the highest point since May 2022.
Will the crypto market cap reach $2T soon?
Despite the ongoing market correction, the capitalization still hovers around the upper limit of the ascending channel at the $1.7T, showing the sustainability of the trend.
📊 On the daily, we see a golden cross as the 50EMA crossed over the 100EMA. The last time such a golden cross appeared on the #CRYPTOCAP chart was in August 2020, coinciding with an increase in the market cap by over 900%.
What does it mean for the market?
I believe current correction might transform into another accumulation period for #BTC with whales continuing to load up ahead of halving, and with retail market interest shifting towards #ETH and altcoins.
💡 In such conditions, the market cap is likely to continue growing. Breaking above the upper boundary of the structure will confirm this scenario, and we might witness a total cap surpassing $2.5 trillion this spring.
#ETH - trying to extend a correction 📊
The local market interest has once again shifted towards Bitcoin, and #ETH lacks sufficient volume for a confident movement.
❗️Important - starting from January 3rd, #ETH exchanges outflow to large wallets has set a new yearly high, with #ETH balances on exchanges already at their minimum values since 2018. Now, with over 300,000 addresses holding more than 1.5m #ETH here, $2000 level is forming a strong support.
No robust buyer presence at current levels caused #ETH to fall below the triangle. $2190 is currently supporting the price; however, a retest may lead to another attempt to decrease towards $2000.
👨💻 I believe solid order block at these levels can prevent further decline. So, I'm considering a potential correction to $2000 as an opportunity to add to my position. As always, once I enter the trade, I will share it with you.
#BTC - returned to the upward structure 📈
After a sharp correction to the lower limit of the channel, liquidating more than $700m within a day, #BTC quickly recovered and is now consolidating above.
👉 Pay attention to the long wicks of the candles, indicating a high interest in #BTC in this range. Judging by the order book, this interest has only increased after the previous correction.
At the same time, the growing funding suggests that the number of long positions in on the rise once again. In the event of significant overexposure, MM will likely try to liquidate them as well, and accumulate #BTC at a discounted rate.
It is worth remembering:
💡 The main rule when dealing with corrections in a growing trend is to perceive them as an opportunity for adding to positions or going long, rather than a reason to initiate shorts.
#BTC - setting new yearly high above $45,000 📈
After a slight pullback back into the ascending channel, #BTC received a strong boost from buyers, already broken strong resistance at $44,500 on a high volume profile.
The main growth driver is the renewed hype for ETFs. Companies have already started advertising new funds, secured initial capital for trading operations, Mike Novogratz is fueling interest on his Twitter.
👨🏫 I've discussed the long-term consequences of launching #BTC ETFs in previous posts. Today, let's look at the short-term effects:
- Approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF will likely happen this month.
- A pump and a trap for bears selling on the news.
- After the initial impulse, a strong dump will follow to trap bulls.
- New impulse and start of a real bull market.
💡 "Buy the rumors, sell the news" - this exactly describes the current situation. So, during the launch pump, I'll be selling my speculative #BTC and start buying it back on the dump.
2023 Recap: Crypto's Biggest Trends 📆
With #BTC gaining over 150% YTD after hitting a bottom at $16,000, and most altcoins doubling or tripling in value, 2023 marks the end of the bear market.
1. SEC vs Crypto 👨⚖️
This year, the SEC was particularly aggressive, aiming to disrupt the industry. Companies like Grayscale, Coinbase, and Ripple withstood the pressure, showcasing the resilience and the maturity of the market.
Now, Gensler's policies are facing increasing criticism, even in conservative circles.
2. Interest Rates Halt 🛑
Strongly impacted market sentiment. While a rates cut hasn't happened yet, expectations are always priced in beforehand. Rate cuts could boost the market cap of crypto, given the substantial net assets of money market funds (over $6 trillion).
3. ETF Expectations ⚖️
While the ETF narrative intensified lately, the fight for its launch has been ongoing for several years. Now, companies came much closer to their goal.
SEC faces a serious dilemma: It can no longer postpone decisions, as legal suits would follow. If one ETF is approved, the SEC will have to approve others, as legal suits would follow. The SEC cannot disapprove an ETF (theoretically), as legal suits would follow (Grayscale precedent).
Keep in mind that most money market investors are not familiar with the crypto world. ETFs will serve as an excellent gateway for these $6 trillion.
👉 I believe these events are crusial for shaping the fundamentals for a bullish rally in the coming year. We'll delve deeper into expectations and forecasts for 2024 in my next post.
#BTC - while on higher time frames still shows increasing lows, buyers lack the volumes needed to update highs.
📊 On lower time frames, the dominance of sellers is evident - after each correction, #BTC fails to return to previous levels and currently struggling to stay above $43,000.
The nearest support is the upper limit of the ascending accumulation zone where an imbalance has formed. Given the seller volumes, the next support retest from above might be successful.
🧑🎓 It is important to understand that corrections are crucial for maintaining market balance and ensuring long-term health. They serve as a natural mechanism for market stabilization, preventing overvaluation and speculative bubbles, and allowing holders to accumulate more positions.
In a global uptrend, even a dip to $38,000 won't disrupt #BTC upward structure.
Let's talk about the long-term prospects of #BTC in the context of market cycles 🧭
The year 2023, as the first year of a four-year cycle, closely resembles 2016. There were two significant dips, during which Bitcoin provided an opportunity to earn at least 50% in mid-term.
If 2024, as the second year of the cycle, replicates the patterns of 2017, we can expect at least 2 more significant dips in #BTC that should be used for buying.
I've marked these situations on the RSI chart, which is quite convenient for monitoring overbought/oversold state. Historically, RSI has provided reliable signals for buying on a higher timeframes (daily, weekly).
👉 To reiterate: FOMOing at highs is always a bad idea, as you become the exit liquidity for those who bought earlier. Play it smart and practice patience - it will undoubtedly bear fruit.
#BTCDOM - in the last couple days while I was away, dominance has sharply declined. It's crucial for us that during this decline, Bitcoin itself remains stable and consolidates in the upward range.
Despite #BTCDOM breaking below the lower boundary of the narrowing wedge, #BTC is trading just below $44,000, suggesting a potential accumulation phase with it's lower limit at around $43,000
Meanwhile, market liquidity is noticeably shifting towards altcoins - #ETH and #SOL are showing excellent momentum, and our #ATOM trade is approaching the $12.00 mark.
So, I continue to search for good entry points for altcoins. The next trade will be out very soon - turn on notifications so you don't miss anything! 🔔
Let's zoom out even more. As you know, the crypto market follows cycles, and each of them includes a growth phase (bull market) and a correction phase (bear market).
👨💻 While, as investors, we prefer rallies, the bear market is also crucial – it's during this period that weak projects are filtered out, and fundamentally strong projects are developed.
No cycle is exactly alike. That would be too easy. However, we can get a better understanding of the general timelines / our current position.
⏳ On average, it takes 564 days from the cycle bottom to the previous all-time high. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024, reaching the previous ATH.
Of course, these are approximate data, and many external factors (macroeconomics, ETFs, media FUD, halving hype) can either bring this period closer or push it further.
But when you look at the big picture, you know – the market's gearing up for showtime 🏄♂️
In my previous stories, I mentioned that buying at current levels is risky - and now we've seen why 💁♂️
Note, that the upper boundary of the monthly upward structure has proven to be a strong support, with #BTC trading slightly below the key level of $42,000.
💡 In case of a confident breakthrough with the daily candle closing above, I expect upward movement to continiue towards the $46,000 - $48,000 range.
If #BTC struggle to consolidate above, a retest of the lower structure boundary is possible. Still, a decline to this level will not break the long-term upward trend. So, its best to treat these corrections as opportunities to add positions.