📈 Gold edges higher as the dollar weakens and investors weigh trade progress ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
💬 Trump signals he may let the reciprocal tariff pause expire, planning to notify countries of their new duty rates via letters.
📜 Senate debates continue over Trump’s massive $4.5T tax cut bill, with concerns mounting over the long-term debt impact.
📉 Gold initially fell 0.8% but bounced back, trading at $3,280/oz, supported by haven demand and a weaker dollar. The precious metal is still up 25% year-to-date, though it’s set for its first monthly drop in 2025.
🌍 Global markets are tense, awaiting U.S. jobs data, ISM manufacturing, and Powell’s speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra.
🗳 Fiscal conservatives are worried that the tax bill will add over $3.3T to the deficit in the next decade.
🔁 Trade talks progress, but deals may lack depth, as seen in prior limited agreements with the UK and China.
📊 Fed rate cut expectations rise, with markets pricing a 91.5% chance of easing by September.
🪙 Dollar weakness continues, with major currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc gaining ground.
🚀 Silver, platinum, and palladium also advanced alongside gold in early Monday trading.
📌 Busy week ahead with major risk events, stay alert and stay informed!
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📈 The NASDAQ rose 3.80% over two days, driven by a ceasefire between Iran and Israel and increased risk appetite. However, some economists remain concerned that the asset may be trading above its intrinsic value.
🗣️ President Trump’s strong reaction to potential ceasefire violations and his commitment to uphold peace supported market confidence. In particular, the president’s comments lifted equities and pressured safe havens like Gold.
📉 Fed Chair Powell signaled rates would stay on hold due to tariff uncertainties. While this is typically negative for stocks, it’s being offset by geopolitical easing and falling oil prices.
📊 After yesterday’s Fed testimony, the Chicago exchange analysts dropped their July rate cut possibility from 23% to 18%.
🥇 Gold has fallen nearly 6% from its all-time high, pressured by Middle East stability and a hawkish Fed. However, it's nearing key support, with upcoming US data likely to influence its next move.
📰 Tomorrow’s US GDP, jobless claims, and durable goods data could push Gold lower if results exceed forecasts, signaling a stronger Dollar and extended Fed pause.
💵 The best performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The worst performing are the Japanese Yen and Euro.
⚠️ Bank of England’s Bailey warned that Trump-era tariffs are creating economic unpredictability. The UK responded by imposing restricted steel imports and supporting key industries.
📈 NASDAQ hits new high on strong US PMI data and easing Middle East tensions.
🕊️ Ceasefire optimism boosts market confidence; VIX drops 4.7% while analysts expect the put/call ratio to fall for the first time in 2-weeks.
🏭 The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 while markets expected a decline. The Services PMI also rose higher than previous expectations.
📊 Currently, 6% of the NASDAQ’s stocks are trading at a 52-week high while only 2% are trading at a 52-week low.
📈 Of the stocks within the NASDAQ which hold a 0.50% weight and above, 87% of the components are trading higher while only 13% are seeing a decline.
🏦 The Fed interest rate cut possibilities are at 22% as falling oil prices ease inflation pressure.
🗣️ The Federal Reserve Chairman is due to speak this afternoon. The chairman is likely to advise the central bank to remain data-driven.
💱 The day’s best-performing currencies are the New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen. The worst performing are the US Dollar and Swiss Franc.
📉 Gold prices are significantly declining due to the ‘risk-on’ conditions within the market. Gold is trading at its lowest price since June 10th.
🛢️ Oil and energy prices significantly decline as experts advise the Straits of Hormuz will not come under threat.
📈 Exciting market developments are happening this week.
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📈 SNP500 hits an all-time high, gaining 3.70% over six consecutive days amid strong investor sentiment.
🤝 US-China trade deal confirmed, with China agreeing to remove non-tariff barriers and supply rare earth materials to the US.
🇮🇳 The US President, Trump, also tells journalists that there is also a deal with India, the world’s fourth-largest economy, which will be agreed upon in the upcoming days.
🌍 Global indices rally, including NIKKEI225, DAX, FTSE100, and NASDAQ, driven by trade optimism and lower capital requirements. Risk-on signals can be seen from the falling VIX and Put/Call ratio.
📊 Mixed US economic data, but rate cut expectations and trade optimism outweigh weak GDP figures, keeping market momentum strong.
🧾 The Weekly Unemployment Claims fell 8,000 below expectations, Durable Goods Orders saw significant gains and the Pending Home Sales figure again beat expectations. These 3 releases are deemed as positive.
💱 The US Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the best-performing currencies of the day so far. The Euro and Australian Dollar are the worst performing.
🪙 Gold prices decline as the market’s ‘risk-on’ appetite continues to grow due to rate cuts and trade deals. However, the commodity trades close to 2 significant support levels.
🚗 Tesla stocks continue to struggle while most stocks increase in value. Earnings season will start mid-July and Tesla will release their earnings report on July 22nd.
📈 Gold prices are rising in early trading, but momentum remains limited as technical indicators stay bearish. Today’s US economic data releases will be crucial in determining short-term direction.
📊 Market sentiment is improving, as can be seen in a declining VIX. This is reducing demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, especially as stocks rally and rate-cut expectations accelerate.
🚀 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near or at all-time highs, supported by Nvidia's growth. In addition to this, the Fed's decision to ease capital requirements for banks is also fueling optimism.
🤖 The surge in demand follows Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comments on continued growth in chips and AI, with robotics highlighted as a key opportunity already contributing 1% of revenue.
🇯🇵 The best-performing index of the day is the NIKKEI225 which is trading 1.40% higher, however, this may change as the Asian Session ends and the other sessions open.
💵 The US Dollar is under pressure following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks. Expectations of rate cuts under a potential new chairmen continue to grow.
🗳️ President Trump is expected to confirm potential names for the new Fed Chairman, with Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and the current Treasury Secretary among the frontrunners. All are likely to cut rates frequently.
💱 The best-performing currencies of the day are the Japanese Yen and Great British Pound. The worst-performing currencies are the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar.
🕊️ The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has experienced violations in the early hours but remains officially in effect so far.
📅 Today the US will release its latest Gross Domestic Product, Durable Goods Orders and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Analysts expect the Durable Goods Order to be positive, the Weekly Unemployment Claims to be similar to previous releases and the GDP figure to be generally low.
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📈USD leads as geopolitical tensions and Fed hawkishness boost demand; up 0.69% today.
📊Investors expect both PMI reports to be slightly weaker than the previous month, however, this cannot be certain until the release is made public.
🇬🇧🇪🇺 UK and EU PMIs failed to support GBP and EUR despite some stronger readings. Particularly investors were concerned with the French Manufacturing PMI which fell from 49.8 to 47.8.
🗣️BoE and ECB speeches/data remain key drivers for the week ahead; markets await the US PMI release in the next 90-minutes.
🛢️Oil prices rose more than 4% over the weekend, but the price has retraced back to Friday’s close. Investors advise Oil’s bullish trend can only be tamed if Iran does not escalate the conflict.
🇺🇸🇨🇭The best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc. However, only the USD is trading significantly higher.
📉The worst-performing currencies of the day and the past week are the NZD, AUD and JPY.
📊All indices are trading lower on Monday other than the NIKKEI225 which is witnessing small gains. European indices are currently the worst-performing.
⚠️The VIX is trading higher as is the Put to Call Ratio which indicates a clear risk-off appetite. Higher oil prices are also a concern for shareholders and central banks.
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'Forex Trading with ATM'
#ATM stands for "At The Market" and it is a forex trading strategy where a trader enters a market order to buy or sell a currency pair at the current market price.
To use the ATM strategy, a trader would first analyze the forex market and determine their desired entry and exit points for a particular currency pair. Once they have decided on these points, they would then place a market order to buy or sell the currency pair at the current market price.
One of the advantages of the ATM strategy is that it allows traders to enter and exit trades quickly, without having to wait for limit or stop orders to be filled. This can be particularly useful in fast-moving markets where prices can change rapidly.
However, there are also risks associated with the ATM strategy. Since the trade is executed at the current market price, the trader may end up paying a higher price than they anticipated if the market moves against them. Additionally, since the trade is executed immediately, there is no opportunity to adjust the order if the market conditions change.
Overall, the ATM strategy can be a useful tool for forex traders, but it is important to use it in conjunction with other trading strategies and risk management techniques to minimize potential losses.
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