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Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2021.08
TP ✅ @: 2015.56 (my TP 📸 was just hit)
We also secure mega profits with our second gold trade.
Wow
What a trade
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💸 Bitcoin ETF available as early as on Thursday? Unconfirmed
My contacts at Reuters have just told me that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will start trading on Thursday - at least that's the information they received from the Cboe exchange - just now.
However, CNBC or Bloomberg have yet to see any news to that regard.
ETFs listed for trading include Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Franklin Bitcoin ETF, WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF.
Even though this is already priced in, it's still a big moment for cryptocurrencies as it increases the number of investors who are invested in cryptocurrencies - even if they don't own any themselves.
The SEC has not yet commented on this - this could also be misinformation (again).
We see a slight rise in Bitcoin just now - means not much and I would not suggest to jump on the hysteria train.
Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Wednesday, January 10
❗️ Global markets move in narrow ranges as investors are cautious ahead of key US inflation data
► Investor sentiment globally remains guarded as markets await critical US inflation data (Jan 11) and assess its implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. This caution is evident across various global markets, from equities to commodities and foreign exchange as we see reduced trading activity.
► Europe's Stoxx 600 index edged slightly lower (- 0.10%), partly due to a decline in mining stocks as iron ore prices fell amid demand concerns. J Sainsbury saw a drop after its full-year guidance missed estimates, while Greggs rallied following sales that exceeded expectations.
► US equity futures showed little movement, with the S&P 500 flat and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.1%, indicating a cautious approach among traders. The market is keenly awaiting Thursday's US inflation figures, seeking clues about the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts.
► Asian markets saw mixed results. Japanese stocks reached three-decade highs, with the Topix index hitting its highest level since March 1990, driven by a weaker yen and falling bond yields. The Nikkei 225 index also surged by 2%. Despite Japan's rally, the broader Asian equities gauge remained steady, balancing the gains in Japan against losses in China, Hong Kong, and Australia. China’s statements regarding Taiwan have heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting market sentiments. Investors are awaiting a series of economic data from China (Jan 12), including inflation, trade, and credit reports, which will offer insights into the health of the world's second-largest economy.
► Oil prices rose slightly due to signs of dropping US crude stockpiles and heightened tensions in the Red Sea, which was also named a risk for supply chains by the EIA. Our chief analyst Robert Lindner says that the support for oil on geopolitical tensions is not reliable and that demand and over supply concerns will continue to weigh on oil. Gold traded slightly higher at $2,034/oz, benefiting from falling yields. Bitcoin rose almost 1% amid volatility fueled by speculative reports about the SEC's stance on spot bitcoin ETFs.
► Current movements are heavily influenced by changes in US Treasury bond yields. We are currently seeing a slight decline in yields, which is supporting growth stocks and has also helped gold to rise slightly. Our chief analyst believes that yields will soon rise further as hopes of rapid rate cuts continue to fade.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change - 15:30 UTC+0
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
No Significant Earnings Reports
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
WTI (USOIL) 🛢
SL 🔑 @: 72.415
TP ✅ @: 71.755
Our timing in trading oil (and gold) remains breathtaking.
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💭 Personal thoughts
If we analyze the NFP data more closely, we see a few red flags in it:
First of all, the NFP data for November and even for October were revised downwards (as always actually in the last months). In November to 173k from 199K. The figures for October were revised downwards by 50k. I expect the December numbers to be revised down next month as well. So we will probably have less than 200k new jobs, of which at least 25% (!) will be in government. +52k government jobs - that's pretty crazy.
So the NFP data is definitely a little "polished".
Still - the data puts rate cuts further out of reach - that should be the deciding factor for markets when it comes to bond demand (and yields). We are also currently seeing a correction in yields, causing this strong market correction.
*By red flag I mean that official US economic data constantly looks better than it actually is. But since this data moves the markets, we have to take it for what it is.
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SELL NOW 🔽 GBP/USD
► We take advantage of the correction that pushed the EUR/USD and GBP/USD even to levels before the NFP data.
► We find a strong entry here (1.26650 - 1.26800) and expect the GBP to also be pressured by an overall worsened risk sentiment.
Gold VERY deep in profit. Congrats! NFP very hot - Gold can fall into the 2010 - 2020 range
Читать полностью…
⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2040.56
TP ✅ @: 2035.16
Congratulations - we had the perfect overnight positioning.
📸 EUR/USD hit TP. Also our Gold position just now - I actually wanted to update it and give a slightly wieder TP as we see yields rising further as we have expected. The 10-y has now a yield of 4.034% (or 4.5 bps higher for today).
In case you are still SHORT in gold, give it more room to fall further.
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Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSE IN PROFIT ✅ @: 2065.00 (area)
My TP just triggered. Close now Gold well in profit as we see bonds finding some support / demand which results in yields sliding slightly (now only at +7 bps). We are securing profits with our gold SHORT now or set a tight TP.
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Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2028.57
TP ✅ @: 2022.16
We can now already secure nice profits with gold.
🚨 US CPI data in 6 minutes (+ initial jobless claims)
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📆 Thursday, January 11
❗️ Global stocks rise ahead of US CPI data; Japanese stocks hit new highs; Bitcoin ETF approval did not lead to massive rally
► Global stock markets remain cautiously optimistic as they await critical US inflation data (13:30 UTC+0), which will potentially guide the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves. The very upbeat mood in Japanese markets contrasts with the more reserved global sentiment, as investors worldwide brace for pivotal economic indicators and earnings reports.
► In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.5%, buoyed by positive corporate news including Tesco’s raised profit guidance and despite Marks & Spencer Group share drop post-sales report.
► US stock futures indicated a positive opening, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all edging higher. This optimism comes as the market gears up for the latest inflation data (US CPI) and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season. Investors are particularly focused on the forthcoming US inflation report, which is pivotal in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations. The anticipated US inflation data is set to be a market mover, with predictions of year-over-year core inflation falling to 3.8% from 4%. Our chief analyst Robert Lindner sees more room for disappointment than inflation data further accelerating already optimistic rate cut hopes. The upcoming US consumer price data will also cause volatility in the Treasury market. Currently, we see treasuries gaining while the USD slightly weakened against Group-of-10 peers, reflecting a global shift in investor sentiment.
► We saw a rally in Asian stocks, with Japanese equities reaching a fresh three-decade high, propelled by the JPY’s weakness and a new tax-free retirement savings program, attracting more domestic inflows. In China, the SHCOMP index modestly rose by 0.31%. Chinese inflation data (Jan 12) are awaited for further insight into the economy.
► Oil prices edged slightly higher amid persistent Middle Eastern tensions. WTI Crude oil is trading at around $72.5/barrel. Our chief analyst sees ongoing headwinds do to weak demand expectations. Gold also saw an uptick, trading at around $2,035/oz. Bitcoin experienced some swings after the SEC's approval of ETFs directly investing in the cryptocurrency. We see BTC erasing early gains despite the news. The ETF approval was already priced in according to our chief analyst. Ethereum sustained its gains, trading near its highest level since May 2022.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
🔸 🇦🇺 Balance of Trade - 00:30 UTC+0 (released)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Inflation Rate / CPI, Initial Jobless Claims - 13:30 UTC+0
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
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☀️ Tesco (TSCDY) 🇬🇧 (reported)
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 16687.70
TP ✅ @: 16522.60
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BUY NOW* 🔼 USD/JPY
► We are improving our entry into the USD/JPY, which has fallen by more than 50 (!) pips. If your position has hit the SL, we want to re-enter here. We find a very good (re-)entry here at / near 145,000*.
► The unexpectedly strong NFP figures push interest rate cuts further away, which means that US Treasury yields will continue to widen against Japanese bonds (which the BoJ is keeping artificially low) and the large gap will persist for longer.
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BUY SOON* 🔼 USD/JPY
► We see a much stronger USD in response to the hot NFP data (as yields rose sharply).
► We want to increase our short-term LONG position in the USD and take advantage of the next short-term correction.
► You can get into the USD/JPY near 144.500* (or as low as possible).
🚨 NFP data in 5 minutes
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
SL 🔑 @: 45261.60
TP ✅ @: 44522.60
WTI (USOIL) 🛢
SL 🔑 @: 73.12
TP ✅ @: 72.54
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