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📊 Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, April 5
❗️ Markets are tense ahead of US labor market data: Europe, Asia fall, Wall Street tries to stabilize
► European markets saw a notable decline, with the Stoxx 600 dipping more than 1.1%, reflecting widespread unease across global markets. This movement comes ahead of pivotal US jobs data expected to influence the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. Factory orders in Germany rose slightly but still fell short of expectations. Construction PMI in the Eurozone also declined. Markets await the release of Eurozone retail sales and US jobs data (NFP later today.
► In the US, stock futures suggest a potential recovery from Thursday's downturn in the S&P 500, even as the market absorbs Federal Reserve officials' cautious stance on rate cuts. Investor focus is shifting towards the upcoming US jobs data, anticipated to reveal an addition of over 200,000 new payrolls for March. A robust jobs report may signal the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates longer than some investors hope. However, the Fed highlighted the possibility that rate reductions might not occur this year if inflation does not significantly decelerate, underscoring the Fed's watchful approach to monetary policy adjustments. These sentiments cast a shadow over traders' expectations for rate cuts, intensifying the focus on the forthcoming jobs report and inflation data as critical indicators of the economy's health and the Fed's next moves. However, our Chief Analyst Robert Lindner believes that the current debate about whether rates will be cut in June or later this year and whether there will be one or three rate cuts is overblown - the US economy does not need rate cuts and conditions are not as the Fed would like them to be - so the Fed is likely to cut less and later than the markets expect.
► Asian markets experienced a downturn, with the region witnessing notable declines amidst regional uncertainties, including Taiwan's significant earthquake and its potential impact on semiconductor production. This nervous sentiment was further compounded by anticipation of key US economic reports and ongoing concerns over the Chinese economy's recovery momentum. China markets are closed for today for a public holiday. In Japan, the JPY showed resilience, buoyed by the Bank of Japan Governor's hints at further rate hikes, offering a glimmer of hope for currency stabilization amidst market volatility. Japan also reported a decrease in household spending.
► Commodities markets presented a mixed picture, with oil prices experiencing a surge due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, potentially affecting global supply lines. WTI Crude oil continues to trade at around $86/barrel. Gold price declined slightly however maintained its upward trajectory, trading at above $2,285/oz but experiencing some swings.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇦🇺 Balance of Trade FEB - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Factory Orders - 06:00 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 HCOB Construction PMI - 07:30 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Construction PMI - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 Retail Sales - 08:30 (released)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Non Farm Payrolls - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - 12:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
📊 Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, April 4
❗️ European equities rise as services sector improves; Global equities slightly positive ahead of key US labor market report on Friday
► In Europe, stocks saw a slight boost ahead of US employment figures and following further improving economic data, with the Euro Stoxx 600 moving 0.2% higher. Meanwhile, Spain's services sector showed resilience with the PMI climbing to an impressive 56.1 in March, reflecting a seventh consecutive month of business activity increase. Germany's service sector just edged into expansion, with a PMI of 50.1 marking a six-month high, highlighting a mixed but hopeful economic landscape across the continent.
► Over in the US, futures rose by over 0.3%. This comes after Powell's reassurance that the Fed is on a wait-and-see stance regarding interest rate adjustments, which did little to sway the consensus that rate cuts are on the horizon this year. However, the anticipation of comprehensive job data keeps investors on their toes, balancing optimism with the reality of recent strong economic indicators that have tempered expectations for an aggressive monetary easing policy.
► Asia presented a diverse picture; Japan's Nikkei 225 surged by 0.81%, buoyed by positive market sentiment and despite the country's large manufacturers showing a dip in confidence. However, markets in China and Hong Kong remained closed for a public holiday, pausing the assessment of Asia's economic pulse amid ongoing recovery signs and central bank policies. The earthquake in Taiwan has led to speculation about potential increases in chip prices, affecting stocks such as Samsung and SK Hynix.
► Oil prices edged slightly lower to $85/barrel amidst OPEC+ supply cut speculations and geopolitical tensions. Gold prices steadied at near $2,290/oz after hitting a record high, as investors flock to safe havens amidst the uncertainties surrounding global inflation, interest rate trajectories and concerns about little upside at Wall Street in 2024.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇪🇸 HCOB Services PMI - 07:15 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹 HCOB Services PMI - 07:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB Services PMI - 07:50 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB Services PMI - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB Services PMI - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Services PMI - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 PPI - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Balance of Trade - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
📊 Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Tuesday, April 2
❗️ European yields rise as traders push back Fed bets; Global stocks show resilience supported by China optimism
► European stocks showed resilience, capitalizing on the post-Easter momentum, with Stoxx 600 futures up close to 0.5%. European bond markets experienced a sell-off, following the downturn in US Treasuries yesterday, as expectations for Federal Reserve easing adjusted in light of recent strong US data. German 10-year yields saw an uptick, aligning with movements in Australian and New Zealand notes. In March, Europe's manufacturing activity contracted, with France and Germany experiencing declines in PMI to 46.2 and 41.9, respectively, signaling persistent sector challenges and a struggling Eurozone economy. The rising bond yields in view of the change in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy also creates some headwinds - for US but also global equities.
► In the US, S&P and Nasdaq futures remain nearly unchanged. Market participants are reevaluating the pace and extent of potential Fed interest rate cuts following unexpectedly robust manufacturing data. This sentiment adjustment comes as the market anticipates more definitive data on employment and wage growth, crucial for the Fed's inflation containment measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech (Apr 3) is highly anticipated for further clues on the monetary policy direction.
► Asian markets presented a mixed picture, with Hong Kong shares rebounding strongly, while Japanese equities lagged, affected by weaker manufacturer confidence. The JPY remains weak against the USD, maintaining Monday's losses. Japanese auto stocks, including Toyota, experienced declines amid softening industry confidence and the new fiscal year's profit-booking. The spotlight remains on China, where a rebound in manufacturing activity has sparked optimism for economic recovery, pushing CSI 300 Index upwards.
► Commodities experienced notable movements as oil prices hovered near a five-month peak. With WTI Crude oil prices hovering over $84.5/barrel. Meanwhile, gold maintained its position after recently hitting a record high, reflecting sustained investor interest in safe-haven assets amidst the ongoing reassessment of global monetary policy trajectories. The gold price is trading above $2,260/oz. On the crypto market, on the other hand, the latest rally was slowed by the US Federal Reserve's revised easing bets. BTC prices fell to around $66,500 and attempts to recover ended in profit-taking - something our chief analyst Robert Lindner has also warned against in the recent past - which has been repeatedly confirmed.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇪🇸 HCOB Manufacturing PMIs - 07:15 (released)
🔸 🇮🇹 HCOB Manufacturing PMIs - 07:45 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB Manufacturing PMIs - 07:50 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB Manufacturing PMIs - 07:55 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB Manufacturing PMIs - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Inflation Rate / CPI - 12:00
🔸 🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 Factory Orders - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Paychex (PAYX) 🇺🇸
📊 Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Wednesday, March 27
❗️ Markets continue to move sideways ahead of US inflation data; Gold with further upside potential
► European markets, as well as nearly all other market are on hold, with the Stoxx 600 Index barely moving as investors await more economic data, such as consumer and economic confidence data, but in particular Friday's US PCE data. A surge in Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) shares, by up to 13%, follows a better-than-expected profit report. Spanish inflation and French consumer confidence figures came in higher than expected, setting the stage for Friday's anticipated US PCE report.
► US futures are slightly up (~ +0.3%), yet this week's movements are extremely cautious ahead of the US inflation data release on Friday. The bond market saw little movement in major yields, with the US 10-year Treasury holding at around 4.23%. Traders are in particular so cautious, as there is limited trading on Thursday (shortened bond trading in the US) and most global markets remain closed on Friday - while key economic data from the US & Europe are released and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a speech.
► In Asia, the picture is mixed; Japanese gains are counterbalanced by dips in China. China and Hong Kong shares fell, largely due to tech sector losses following Nvidia's decline and Alibaba’s halted logistics arm listing. The JPY’s decline to its weakest since 1990 has sparked speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities. After the Bank of Japan's rate hike, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hinted at possible further actions to support the currency.
► In the commodity market, oil sees a slight decrease after US inventory reports. WTI Crude oil is now trading at around $80.8/barrel. Gold maintains its position near historic highs at around $2,183/oz. According to our chief analyst, gold remains very bullish and will benefit from the rising uncertainty / caution in the markets.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence - 07:45 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 Inflation Rate / CPI - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 Economic Sentiment & Consumer Confidence - 10:00
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ 🇨🇳 Industrial Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)
☀️ 🇺🇸 Cintas (CTAS)
☀️ 🇨🇳 Bank of Communications (BCMXY)
☀️ 🇺🇸 Carnival (CCL)
📊 Tuesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Tuesday, March 26
❗️ Market sentiment improves after cautious Monday; Trading volumes remain subdued as traders wait for PCE data
► European stocks experienced slight movements in anticipation of key US inflation figures set for release later this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index showed little change. Spain's economy showed resilience with a 2% GDP growth in Q4, outpacing expectations and highlighting a steady economic recovery. Germany's consumer confidence slightly improved, suggesting a cautious optimism among consumers. SmartTrader chief analyst Robert Lindner expect more signs of an improving global economy.
► US futures saw a modest uptick following a dip in the S&P 500 Index on Monday, reflecting a mixed reaction to anticipated durable goods and consumer confidence data from the US. These figures could slightly influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, a topic that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan express concerns over the sustainability of current stock market valuations without corresponding earnings growth. The warning signals a cautious approach to the looming earnings season and the potential adjustments in equity markets. However, most analysts and investment banks have warned about stretched valuations also over previous months - instead we saw the equity rally extend and a very strong YTD performance so far.
► Asian markets displayed a variety of responses; Hong Kong and Japan's shares increased, whereas Taiwan witnessed declines. The offshore CNY, showed signs of strength following the People's Bank of China's intervention to support the currency. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki's remarks on currency volatility highlight the delicate balance authorities seek to maintain in the forex market, hinting at potential interventions if excessive movements persist.
► Oil prices remained stable at $81.8/barrel, amidst OPEC+'s continued production cuts and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, gold hovered near its record high at $2,185/barrel. Bitcoin extended yesterday's strong surge and trades above $71K. The excitement over the London Stock Exchange (LSE) launching Bitcoin and Ethereum ETN markets has caused the sharp rise in cryptocurrencies.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence - 07:00 (released)
🔸 🇪🇸 GDP Growth Rate - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 API Crude Oil Stock Change - 20:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ BYD (BYDDY) 🇨🇳
☀️ Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) 🇮🇪
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📊 Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, March 21
❗️ Global stocks rallied to ATHs with markets growing confident about upcoming rate cuts post Fed rate decision
► Global stocks soar after the Federal Reserve signals readiness for three interest-rate cuts this year. The FOMC kept its 2024 outlook for three cuts and begins slowing its bond-holding reductions, suggesting manageable concerns over recent price rebound pressures. US Treasuries continued to rise with yields falling as expectations grow for a June rate cut. The USD weakened - even against the recently weak JPY. The SNB surprised with already conducting a first rate cut. The CHF tumbled after the decision, falling more than 1% against the USD and even more against other major currencies.
► European markets rise, with the Stoxx 600 climbing over 0.7%. Focus goes on to the Bank of England's upcoming monetary policy decision (12:00 UTC+0), with anticipation for continued rate stability to address inflationary pressures. The latest PMI figures in Europe presented a mixed picture. The Eurozone's composite and services PMIs edge higher in March, signaling resilience in the services sector despite manufacturing's slight retreat. This contrast highlights the uneven recovery across different sectors. We also see an increase in Germany’s composite PMI, while France’s shows a decline.
► Following the Federal Reserve's recent indications of upcoming interest rate cuts, global US futures rose significantly. We see the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising 0.6% and 0.3% respectively after yesterday's strong (record) finishes. The tech sector, riding the wave of AI demand, notably contributed to the momentum, with companies like Micron spotlighting the industry's robust outlook.
► Global optimism affects Asian equities where we see mostly gains. Tech stocks in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea rise following Micron’s robust revenue forecast driven by AI demand and the strong handover from Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 in Japan sets a new closing high, supported by growth in exports. Japan's manufacturing and service sectors showed mixed signals, with manufacturing activity indicating contraction while services expanded. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hints at possible further rate increases.
► Commodities were mixed with gold surpassing $2,200/oz post-Fed comments, a weaker USD and falling yield. Oil prices remained stable, with WTI Crude oil prices at $81/barrel.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇯🇵 Jibun Bank PMIs - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇫🇷 HCOB PMIs - 08:15 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 HCOB PMIs - 08:30 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 HCOB PMIs - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 S&P Global PMIs - 09:30 (released)
♦️ 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision - 12:00
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 S&P Global Composite PMI - 13:45
🔸 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate / CPI - 23:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Accenture (ACN) 🇮🇪
🌙 Nike (NKE) 🇺🇸
☀️ BMW (BMWYY) 🇩🇪
☀️ ENEL Societa per Azioni (ENLAY) 🇮🇹
🌙 FedEx (FDX) 🇺🇸
🌙 Lululemon (LULU) 🇨🇦
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 2119.21
TP ✅ @: 2008.56
we made poor gold trades - sorry for that. Gold has been disconnecting from yields for now / fundamentals lately and has been pushed much higher by strong volatility, the mixed markets and general very positive momentum (in gold). We should have taken more care about the market sentiment here. We are tightening our SL here - but will close with a loss.
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@alinix99
Market is very good now
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⚡️ RAPID UPDATE 🟢
WTI (USOIL) 🛢
SL 🔑 @: 77.423
TP ✅ @: 78.247
⚡️ FREE RAPID SIGNAL 🕯
BUY NOW* / STAY LONG 🔼 Nasdaq (NAS100 / US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 17358.70
► We buy soon (or here) range 17435 - 17470* and expect the market to soon find a bottom. If not - then we will indeed see further panic selling. We have set an SL which, if triggered, would mean further heavy selling ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.
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📊 Wednesday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Wednesday, April 3
❗️ Stocks under pressure as rat cut hopes fade; Worst Taiwan Quake in 25 Years
► European equities show minimal movements, as robust economic indicators and rising commodity prices hint at enduring high-interest rates. The Stoxx 600 slightly drops, reflecting uncertainties over the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, further complicated by surging 10-year US Treasury yields. Markets await the release of Eurozone inflation data which is forecasted to remain unchanged at 2.6%.
► In the US, futures anticipate a subdued opening amidst soaring Treasury yields, driven by positive job and manufacturing data, casting doubts on the anticipated pace of Fed's easing. Our chief analyst Robert Lindner says good data has become temporarily "bad" data again as it further push back rate cut bets. However, signs of a strong US economy will ultimately mean that the ongoing market rally can persist. This follows a session where Treasuries steadied, but the 10-year yield reached its peak for the year, adding pressure on equities. The focus shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and critical inflation data from Europe, all while swap traders scale back expectations for rate reductions, estimating about 65 basis points cut this year, contrary to the more optimistic Fed forecasts.
► In Asia, Taiwan's significant earthquake had immediate impacts on key industries, notably causing a decline in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s stock due to production disruptions. Alongside this, Japan's weaker than expected economic sentiment, dampened regional market spirits, contrasting with China's manufacturing rebound, offering a mixed economic outlook across Asia. The currency market shows the JPY stabilizing around its yearly low against the USD, hinting at potential official actions to curb its fall. Meanwhile, the CNY’s performance remains tepid despite positive economic indicators from China, underscoring the complexity of current market dynamics.
► Oil prices found some resistance after Tuesday's surge, backed by a reported decrease in US crude inventories. WTI Crude oil is now trading at around $84.7/barrel. Gold declined slightly after rising significantly yesterday, buoyed by the current economic uncertainty. Gold prices hover around $2,270/oz. Bitcoin found some (temporary) support rising above $66,000.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇯🇵 Jibun Bank Services PMI - 00:30 (released)
🔸 🇨🇳 Caixin Services PMI - 01:45 (released)
♦️ 🇪🇺 Inflation Rate / CPI - 09:00
🔸 🇺🇸 ADP Employment Change - 12:15
🔸 🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI - 13:45
🔸 🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI - 14:00
🔸 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - 14:30
♦️ 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speech - 16:00
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
📊 Thursday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Thursday, March 28
❗️ Europe ends quarter at record level; Wall Street with subdued movements as markets await US labor market & inflation data
► European equities hit new records as the Stoxx 600 Index ends a second quarter with strong gains, driven by central bank policies hinting at upcoming rate cuts. This week saw modest movements among investors rebalancing portfolios at the quarter's end. In economic news, Germany's unemployment rate remained unchanged while retail sales decreased by 0.8%. In the UK, GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q4 which aligns with cautious investor outlooks, emphasizing the need for strategic central bank interventions to sustain economic momentum.
► In the US, futures are little changed, after the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, underscoring the market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve signals and economic data. Markets await the release of GDP growth and job data later today. On Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE Price Index) is due, which leads Wall Street to balance on the edge of optimism and the need for concrete earnings growth to justify current valuations. The markets will act cautiously today, as the markets will be closed for the holiday tomorrow when the important US inflation figures are published. The latest comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who advocates patience when adjusting interest rates until inflation trends are clearer, are contributing to the caution.
► Asian markets present a mixed view with Hong Kong and Japan advancing, while Taiwan sees declines. Japan's finance minister's currency warnings and China's bolstering of the CNY reflect the region's nuanced economic landscape. The AI sector's rally notably supports shares in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, illustrating the global impact of technological advancements on stock markets.
► Commodities witness oil aiming for a quarterly gain amid OPEC+ supply cuts and expectations for rising oil demand. WTI Crude oil prices rose, now trading $81.5/barrel. Gold remains stable near record highs at $2,195/oz after again finding temporary resistance at $2,200 as predicted by our chief analyst.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇩🇪 Retail Sales - 07:00 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 GDP Growth Rate - 07:00 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate - 08:55 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 GDP Growth Rate - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Core PCE Prices - 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 14:00
🔸 🇯🇵 Tokyo Inflation Rate / CPI - 23:30
🔸 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales - 23:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ 🇨🇳 Bank China (BACHY)
☀️ 🇨🇳 China Construction Bank Corp (CICHY)
☀️ 🇺🇸 Walgreens Boots (WBA)
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❌ Note: We Do Not Accept Funded Accounts (Prop Firms)
🔒 Your success is our priority. Join now and let's maximize your trading potential together!
Contact @alinix99
📊 Monday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Monday, March 25
❗️ Stock market rally takes a pause with search for new catalysts & clues on central banks' path
► We see stocks wavering after last week's strong rally. The week is packed with pivotal economic data releases, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE price index) on Friday, which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction in the coming months - especially given that Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed will remain data-dependent. Additionally, investors are awaiting speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials for further insights into their outlook.
► European markets took a breather, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index remaining unchanged after a nine-week winning streak, the longest in 12 years. Spanish producer prices saw a significant decrease, reflecting changing inflationary pressures. Similar to markets in the US (pre-markt), traders in Europe seems to be in wait-and-see.
► US equity futures like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ declined slightly following the best weekly Wall Street performance of the year. The Bloomberg dollar spot index saw a slight dip, while US treasuries held steady. The big focus will be on Friday’s PCE price index, as mentioned earlier. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted this index in recent comments, noting expectations for it to reflect ongoing inflationary pressures. The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, making this report crucial for future policy considerations.
► In Asia, the market sentiment was mixed, with Japanese stocks taking a hit amid concerns over potential government intervention to stabilize the weak JPY. The CNY saw an appreciation as the USD weakened, supported by a stronger-than-expected daily reference rate from China’s central bank. Investors reacted cautiously to China's Premier Li Qiang’s reassurances regarding economic challenges.
► In commodities, oil prices rose slightly to $81.1/barrel due to geopolitical tensions and optimistic forecasts for the sector. Gold remains stable at $2,170/oz, recovering from sentiment-driven "corrective" selling on Friday.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇪🇸 PPI YoY FEB - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech - 10:00 (released)
🔸 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - 14:30
🔸 🇦🇺 Westpac Consumer Confidence Change - 23:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
No significant earnings reports today
📊 Friday Markets Wrap 🗒
📆 Friday, March 22
❗️ Global stocks point towards best week this year after dovish stance from central banks
► European markets stabilize after reaching record highs, reflecting a pause as investors digested the Swiss National Bank's unexpected rate cut and the Bank of England's rate decision. The Stoxx 600 gauge remains unchanged, mirroring a cautious stance among European investors against the backdrop of recent central bank developments. Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index provided a positive note, rising to 87.8 in March from February's 85.5, surpassing consensus expectations. This boost in business confidence in Europe's largest economy suggests signs of recovery amidst broader economic uncertainties. However, UK retail sales data for February showed a decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in UK consumer spending and economic momentum within the region.
► The US markets are on the cusp of closing out an exceptional week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq teetering near record highs, driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and returning gains in the chip sector. This week’s central bank meetings have ignited hopes for interest-rate cuts, propelling stocks towards their best performance since December. The tech sector, particularly chipmakers, has been at the forefront of this rally, additionally buoyed by Micron's robust revenue forecast and broader excitement around artificial intelligence applications. Treasuries have mirrored this optimistic sentiment, with yields dipping as bond prices climbed.
► Asia-Pacific stocks mirrored the global enthusiasm, achieving significant milestones with Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaching new peaks following encouraging trade data. The region's markets were uplifted by a combination of central bank directions hinting at forthcoming policy easing and compelling economic indicators from China showcasing stronger than anticipated performance in retail sales and industrial production. The Bank of Japan's recent policy adjustment, marking an end to negative interest rates, introduced a cautious optimism in the market. Investors are closely watching for further rate hikes, assessing the central bank's future moves in the context of Japan's inflation trends and economic recovery pace.
► Oil markets have displayed resilience, maintaining stability despite the backdrop of central bank meetings and geopolitical tensions. WTI Crude oil prices increased slightly to $80.9/barrel after sliding yesterday. Gold posted a remarkable rise, breaking through the $2,200 mark for the first time as investors pile into safe-haven gold amid signals of imminent interest rate cuts from major central banks, falling yields and the view that equity markets have already run very hot. Nevertheless, there was heavy profit-taking yesterday, which according to our chief analyst will be short-lived. Bitcoin has been volatile, falling back from recent highs, but remains at the center of investor interest in digital assets as it continues to trade above $65,000.
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0)
🔸 🇬🇧 Gfk Consumer Confidence - 00:01 (released)
🔸 🇬🇧 Retail Sales - 07:00 (released)
🔸 🇪🇺 ECB General Council Meeting - 08:00 (released)
🔸 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate - 09:00 (released)
🔸 🇨🇦 Retail Sales - 12:30
🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
☀️ Meituan (MPNGY) 🇨🇳 (scheduled)
We can look back on a record-breaking day in our account management services that will continue to have a significant impact on the markets in the coming weeks.
Futures on Wall Street and indices in Europe, such as the DAX, the Japanese Nikkei and gold, etc. all reached new record highs. The euphoria over the expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve is driving the markets to new records. While the rally remains fundamentally supported, also in view of lower yields and a cooling USD, we are seeing gains that are mainly driven by euphoria (in the short term). Fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving some of the assets sharply higher. We expected these moves before and also right after the Fed rate decision (likely better than over 90% of analysts / even those from the big investment banks) - but we want to make sure we find solid entries and not buy spikes.
A quick recap of yesterday's events:
1) The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.5% - this was 100% expected. The main news, although also "unchanged": The FOMC maintained its median forecast for rate cuts this year. The decision-makers continue to expect three rate cuts this year. However, compared to December's forecasts, more FOMC members than before expect fewer rate cuts in 2025, but this is crystal ball reading - no one knows how inflation will develop, also not the Fed.
2) As we expected, Powell reiterated comments he and his colleagues have made in recent months, saying they need more evidence that inflation is approaching the central bank's 2% target before they start cutting rates. I called that "wait-and-see" beforehand, and the Fed remaining data-dependent. FOMC members continue to expect the disinflation path to be "bumpy".
3) Powell also spoke at this meeting about slowing the balance sheet reduction and said that this process will begin "fairly soon". This QT (Quantitative Tightening) that has been implemented over the past few months has helped to counteract the already significantly loosened conditions in the real economy. While everyone has been focused on interest rates in recent months (and currently), QT tapering will soon have a significant additional impact. The easing caused by QT tapering will reinforce the easing of financial conditions that is already happening with the rate cuts - IF they come in June.
4) Stocks and US Treasuries rose sharply as trader confidence grew that the Fed will start cutting rates in June. Expectations for a rate cut in June are now close to 70%. The lower yields have also weighed on the USD and pushed the gold price to a new record high.
Continued success guys
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► As mentioned on Friday, there are many factors that will continue to have a bullish effect on oil prices.