Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

22 Dec 2022 15:02

📆 USD softness into year-end

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #DXY with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Another really notable trend around this time of the year is USD weakness. This is due to some taxation reasons that regularly see USD flows out of parent US companies into daughter companies around the year-end. So, the USD does tend to be very weak heading into the year-end.

Over the last 25 years, the dollar index has fallen 20 times between Dec 21 and Dec 31. The largest fall has been -2.46% in 2000. The percentage of winning sell trades has been 80%. Will the USD show weakness again this year?

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21 Dec 2022 10:25

HYCM Insights: #Q4 2022 #research data from the UK

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21 Dec 2022 09:31

📕BOOK REVIEW: Market Wizards

One of the best-selling trading books around is Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards. The premise of the book is the author interviewing a range of different successful traders about their trading styles. This is a compelling book as the different perspectives of other traders are really quite diverse and illuminating.

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20 Dec 2022 09:20

⚠️Managing risk in macro trading

One of the weaknesses in macro trading is that you have a clear bias for a currency pair, but how do you manage risk properly?

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16 Dec 2022 09:27

⚠️Fed’s dot plot shock

This week started with a miss in the US CPI data setting hopes for a dovish Fed meeting on Wednesday. However, on Wednesday the Fed’s dot plot projections showed the Fed remains committed to getting on top of US inflation and that a higher rate above 5% may be ahead for 2023. This sent the USD higher, gold lower, and stocks lower. On Thursday the Bank of England’s decision was mixed with a dovish vote split of 7-2, but the BoE no longer sees the current money market pricing as too aggressive, which was more hawkish.

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15 Dec 2022 09:40

🛢️Oil prices: A question of supply and demand

The longer term picture for oil looks strong. Many analysts point to a larger lack of investment in oil research and development which means the supply ultimately is not there should demand pick up. This is positive for oil prices longer term. However, in the short term global demand is driving prices, and expectations for many major economies slowing in 2023 have been a pressure.

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14 Dec 2022 11:02

📈📉Trading 101: Volume confirms price
The market communicates its mood not only through price but also through volume. This is one message that you really need to pay attention to as volume is a confirmation or a contradiction of price, particularly at certain times.

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13 Dec 2022 17:54

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

09 Dec 2022 14:49

Copper’s end of year surprise 🗯️

Dont miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Gold and silver typically gain around the end of the year from a seasonal perspective and their patterns are often picked up around year end. However, one less well-known pattern is that of copper.

Around the end of the year, copper prices have a marked seasonal upside. The winning percentage for copper is pretty strong with a 73% winning percentage. The maximum gain has been over 9% with a maximum loss of around -4.77%.

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08 Dec 2022 14:29

JPMorgan set for the Santa Rally

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Many stocks tend to gain towards the end of the year in what’s known as a ‘Santa Rally’. Is it optimism surrounding holidays?

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06 Dec 2022 10:51

🗒️Using sentiment surveys like the American Association of Individual Investors

We have covered the impact of the magazine cover indicator before here. Another helpful sentiment indicator is also one of the most easily accessible and popular sentiment surveys – the American Association of Individual Investors. This is a weekly survey, free to access, where they ask individual investors this one simple question, ‘Do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral), or down (bearish)?’ The results are then collected and displayed on the AAII’s website. Here are the results from the last few weeks.

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

05 Dec 2022 10:35

🇨🇦 BoC heading for a 25bps hike?
Next week the Bank of Canada meets and it will be an interesting meeting to see how confident the BoC is surrounding a potential slowdown coming for Canadian economic activity.

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

01 Dec 2022 10:26

🇨🇳China’s press conference confirms a Covid ‘pivot’ in all but name

Back in May, the outlook for China exiting its Covid-Zero looked like it was going to be a long draw out affair. Weaker hospital infrastructure, lack of vaccination of the elderly, and the lack of an endgame policy, all meant the retreat was going to be gradual rather than fast for China. However, some things have been changing.

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

28 Nov 2022 10:22

👀All eyes on US inflation this week

It’s all about inflation this week, US inflation specifically. In order to see the significance of Thursday’s PCE print we need to see the context of the US inflation story. So, this article will give a broad skeleton on that context and show what the key focus is going to be. There are finer points to this context that this piece will not focus on in the interests of time considerations.

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

25 Nov 2022 14:55

🇦🇺🇳🇿RBNZ considered a 100bps hike

The RBNZ met this week and took a decidedly hawkish tone. The RBNZ recognises that annual inflation remains too high at 7.2% and it hiked by 75bps to 4.25%. This 75 bps was expected, but the surprise was that the RBNZ now sees itself needing to hike interest rates at a faster pace.

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

22 Dec 2022 09:52

Should you use a squawk service?

A news squawk service literally talks the news out to you over a microphone. You then receive the spoken news on your computer’s speakers. It gives you access to a team of people looking at the markets for you. When something significant happens in terms of news flow or price movement an audible voice lets you know very quickly what is happening. So, for example, it could be that there is a sudden 25 pip move on the GBPUSD pair. The squawk will flag that move up to you very quickly. The squawk will also let you know if that move is in relation to a news piece. The squawk keeps you informed of market moves and the known causes of those moves. Helpfully the squawk can also tell you if there is no reason for the moves, which can be handy to know. In addition to the ‘squawk’ element of the service, a good squawk service will also provide access to analysts that traders can talk to as well as special reports and session summaries. All of these tools are designed to help you tune into the market mood as soon as you possibly can.

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

21 Dec 2022 10:20

Will the #EURUSD run higher into the year-end?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Very often around the end of the year, the market has a seasonal patch of USD weakness. The major currency pairs can benefit from this. The EURUSD pair is inversely correlated with the USD index. So, USD weakness will equate to EURUSD strength.

Over the last 22 years, EURUSD has gained +0.77% between December 22 and December 30. So, will this result in some EURUSD strength again this time of the year?

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

20 Dec 2022 12:13

🔍Identifying a strong seasonal pattern in #gold

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

You may have heard that gold tends to be strong around the end of the year. So, how to choose a great time of seasonal strength for gold?

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

16 Dec 2022 15:03

Platinum’s seasonals are stunning

The latest Seasonal Insights on #platinum with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

There are few stunning seasonals as good as Platinum’s. The commodity is in hot demand at the start of the year as purchase managers make their purchases for industrial usage at the start of the year. This buying activity tends to give Platinum a nice lift around the start of the year.

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16 Dec 2022 04:57

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

14 Dec 2022 11:26

💳 #Visa gains ahead?
The latest Seasonal Insights with Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Visa says that Ryan McLenerney will become CEO effective from February 1, 2023, and the present CEO Alfred Kelly will become executive chairman. At the end of November, Visa said that US payments rose 9%y/y while it noted November credit grew 10% and debit increased 8%.

Will these developments and news help lift Visa’s share price over Q1 2023?

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

14 Dec 2022 10:10

The FTX collapse means all bets currently off for #crypto

What a difference a few days can make. At the beginning of November, we saw bitcoin breaking above its 20-week moving average for the first time since March. A few days later, news of the FTX bankruptcy sent crypto markets in a tailspin. As the extent of the shortfall comes to light, and we learn more about the contagion from this event, we’ve gone from crypto analysts trying to pick a bottom, to the entire market wringing its hands and wondering just how bad this story is for crypto and how much worse it can get.

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12 Dec 2022 11:51

The latest Seasonal insights with Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

🎅 #Disney magic at Christmas?

There has recently been a string of news for Walt Disney shares. Walt Disney cruise line is set to return to tropical destinations in the Bahamas, Caribbean, & Mexico in early 2024. Furthermore, Shanghai Disneyland was due to re-open on December 08 after previously closing for Covid concerns. Walt Disney has reportedly increased the prices of Walt Disney Multi-Day and Park Hopper tickets. On top of this, there were rumours in early December from Vice Media of a potential M&A deal between Disney & Zoom.

So, does all this news make for a magical Christmas?

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Forex Trading Experts 📊 HYCM

09 Dec 2022 14:45

🔺Has the Bank of Canada done hiking rates?

Possibly BoC has done with hiking rates at the current rate of 4.25%. The Bank of Canada said as much at the end of its last rate statement that the Governing Council, ‘Will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target’. The decision saw a 50bps hike, which money markets had not fully priced in, but the forward guidance was dovish, so that offset any hawkish response in the CAD. So, what are the snag points for the BoC, and where does it go from here?

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07 Dec 2022 11:48

🖼️ Big picture: What’s the reason for stock market uncertainty

There has been a steady rise in neutral sentiment towards the direction of stocks. So, it is important to understand why that is.

🔴The reason for indecision
The Fed has recently communicated two things clearly. Firstly, that interest rates must rise to combat inflation. Secondly, the pace is likely to slow, but the terminal rate could be higher than previously expected. The Fed has also said that it will be data-dependent going forward, so that means a constant push and pull from stocks as incoming data suggests peak inflation and the next piece suggest stickier inflation.

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05 Dec 2022 15:18

✨ Glittering gold ✨

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #Gold with Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Gold has long been touted as an inflation hedge, but now really could be the time for gold to shine. If it does, then there are some very strong seasonals ahead for the precious metal.

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02 Dec 2022 13:45

📈📉Crescat Capital: Finally time for its view to cash in?

Crescat Capital has been bullish on gold for a long time. It is a conviction that has been costing the company in the recent climate with USD strength, rising yields, and rising real yields – all negative headwinds for gold. You can see its precious metals hedge fund is down -23.2% year to date.

However, is the tide now turning? Crescat makes a powerful argument in its latest newsletter based on the recessionary risk for the US and the historical reaction of gold to two prior recessions it considers comparable to today.

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29 Nov 2022 11:25

🇨🇳What are President Xi’s options with China’s Covid protests?
The latest protests in China have been widespread and show a population tired of COVID Zero lockdowns.

In China’s authoritarian state such protests against Party policy are rare and carry strict penalties. So, these protests are a big challenge to President Xi. What will he do next? How will that impact markets?

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25 Nov 2022 15:04

🏰 Time for Disney magic?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Disney reported earlier this month that advertiser interest has been strong for the new-ad-supported Disney+ tier. Furthermore, the appointment of former Chairman & CEO Bob Iger as Chief Executive has been welcomed by many as a positive move sending shares sharply higher on the news. So, does this mean that things are looking good for Disney shares?

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25 Nov 2022 14:51

❄️ Why winter buying favours stocks?

Dont miss our article with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph on Investment Week
It is a widely accepted belief that stocks perform better during the winter than in summer.
Indeed, according to data, the average return in the stock markets during the winter months is 7%, versus around 2% during the summer. So, why might this be the case?

For one, as investors return from their summer holidays, new strategies are deployed, businesses tax years conclude, and the market is flooded with capital, there is simply more money in the market.

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