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The best damn analysis you've ever had the pleasure of seeing. Contact: @Forflies Twitter: https://twitter.com/samiloyal_ (DM on Twitter if you can't reach out on Telegram for whatever reason)
For the first time since the 28th of December 2021, 778 days ago, Bitcoin is trading at 50,000 dollars.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lDvB5kFx/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is looking super strong here. It's up by almost 9% over the past 2 days. The 4 EMAR is expanding, and so is the 4h green Ichimoku cloud. These are incredibly important for trading here; If we get a correction and one (or both) of these indicators line up with potential horizontal support, I'll be looking to enter a long.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kl6UuUPv/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin dropped out of that ascending channel, which isn't really a surprise. It also just retested the channel, resulting in a small rejection.
Bitcoin is still trading inside this big red Ichimoku cloud on the 4h.
But there's one thing to mention here: That Ichimoku cloud turned green again, thanks to the move up between the 23rd and 30th of last month. This means that we'll be getting less resistance from this cloud - and it'll even turn into support in 5 days from today.
Of course, this cloud isn't big enough yet to provide real support. Another problem here is that the cloud could easily turn red again if we get some bearish price action next - and that seems to be entirely possible.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iqjSplup/
- @Forflies
We have some considerable USDT inflows: Since the beginning of the year, USDT's market cap increased by 4.4 billion dollars, and by 1.2 billion dollars in the past 7 days alone.
An increase in USDT's market cap often correlates with a big increase in Bitcoin's price, so it's important to keep an eye on USDT's market cap.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/j7JKosyO/
- @Forflies
Looks like that ascending triangle played out perfectly.
Bitcoin overcame the 4h EMAR and closed a 4h candle just above it. In the past, this was often the beginning of a full-on recovery.
Closing another 4h candle above this EMAR would serve as some sort of confirmation, but it'll be interesting to see whether we actually get that as BTC is currently seeing a small drop again.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VgTUBsn8/
- @Forflies
The longer BTC consolidates below the 4h EMAR, the better for the bulls. This is because the EMAR is providing strong resistance, and trading right at resistance without dropping is a sign of strength. I'm not saying BTC is looking strong, because it definitely isn't - but this is still a (small) sign of strength.
What's also important to note here, is that BTC already traded right at the 4h EMAR resistance before, and kept dropping regardless.
In my opinion, overcoming that EMAR would be the first sign of a potential recovery.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GW2BiFW8/
- @Forflies
In addition to that position I mentioned earlier, I'm also considering a long at the 38,000 dollar range. This is a bit more risky and could feel a bit like catching a falling knife - but then again, BTC does have potentially strong horizontal support at that level, and it does feel like BTC is approaching a strongly oversold condition.
Longing the 38,000 dollar level doesn't mean expecting BTC to recover and pump above 50,000 dollars - it just means expecting a bounce of some sort.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/u1iEIpEw/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is still trading sideways here - another weekend without a lot of price action. It's quite unfortunate to see volatility decrease so much again on weekends.
On the other hand, I believe we could get some movement tomorrow again. The market might keep dropping from its current levels.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QsFovgJP/
- @Forflies
This BTC chart is looking pretty bad. BTC is down 17% since the ETF approval and lost 3 important areas of support. Certainly not looking good right now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/84aeBSOV/
- @Forflies
Potential long opportunity on TIA. The previous resistance at 16.62 dollars could turn into support next and appears to line up with the green Ichimoku cloud on the 4h.
The R/R is also looking good here, but there are some disadvantages, like no clear indicator support (EMAR and Ichimoku) on the 1h.
Alerts are set to trigger once TIA closes in on my potential entry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NAcvEw9Q/
- @Forflies
Yesterday's daily candle closed right at the bottom of the daily EMAR. The last time BTC dropped below an EMAR on the daily was back in mid October 2023, and the EMAR was very narrow at that point.
BTC continues to look weaker and weaker on the macro.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RNegtJrn/
- @Forflies
This could turn into a big problem for BTC: The 44,000 dollar range acted as resistance several times in the past, but never as support - and now, the 4h EMAR is also lining up with this level.
This means that we might get another rejection here in the future.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kxawrDw2/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin seeing a pretty big drop right now. No support at the 45,500 dollar level, but BTC might find some around 44,000 dollars. Unfortunately for the bulls, the 4h EMAR is failing, but the 4h Ichimoku cloud is at least still green.
Still - this is probably not what the bulls were expecting from the ETF approval. On the other hand, "buy the rumour, sell the news" is quite a common strategy in crypto.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UjMEGiov/
- @Forflies
Pretty big drop right after this pump.
There's a lot of volatility in the market right now, and people are getting stopped out left and right.
It might be best to let the market cool down a bit, and then look for entries - risk seems to be pretty high right now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nF1KOCMM/
- @Forflies
I'm live on YouTube to discuss this recent BTC price action in 5 minutes!!
My analysis + your questions
https://youtube.com/live/enfIL02DjQc?feature=share
- @Forflies
It's Saturday, which means that we probably won't see that much action on Bitcoin until Monday. At least that seems to be the case, as BTC hasn't really done much ever since the weekend started.
Of course, this doesn't mean that altcoins will trade only sideways as well. Quite the opposite, some altcoins are making a move even today.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4G1YF2LX/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is finally leaving this red Ichimoku cloud on the 4h. This is a really good sign - but why?
Well, a red Ichimoku cloud provides resistance. BTC however spend 9 days inside this cloud, which clearly means that resistance wasn't strong enough to suppress BTC. This is a bullish sign.
However, with the cloud still present, we also still had a bearish indicator. These are contradicting signs, which make trading much more risky. Bitcoin leaving this cloud now means that the resistance provided by this cloud disappears.
While the market still doesn't have a clear direction in the short-term, the bullish side is at least getting stronger by this move.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oQBvVIfZ/
- @Forflies
The DXY is currently seeing a pretty big drop. It's still trading inside this sideways trading range though.
I believe that this range could be important for the DXY's short-term, or even mid-term price development. A breakout to either side could indicate an extended move in that direction, which is why it's so important to keep an eye on this.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bQaab6QE/
- @Forflies
BTC is currently resting on top of the hourly EMAR as it's seeing a minor drop. Nothing big, but interestingly a bit more volatility than on a usual Sunday - which is nice to see
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rmjTLtdo/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin appears to be trading inside a small ascending triangle on the hourly. Now this might not mean much, but again: The simple fact that BTC has been trading right at the 4h EMAR without dropping, is already a pretty strong sign.
BTC is currently once again above 40,000 dollars. Not by much, but still above it.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xEUCgZc2/
- @Forflies
BTC is trading in a falling wedge - and that wedge has been valid since the top. If we get a strong breakout here, BTC could clear the EMAR AND horizontal resistance in one swing, but would unfortunately still run into this large red 4h Ichimoku cloud right after. This could certainly limit a potential move up.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dgWVnOiw/
- @Forflies
The SPX is still doing really well, which makes this drop a lot more concerning. If this is how bad BTC holds up while the SPX is pumping, what happens if (or when) the SPX corrects?
The SPX is now trading at resistance, too. This could mean trouble for BTC if the SPX reverses here.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/L7ADIwbT/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin keeps trading below the EMAR on the daily. This is quite a bad sign - already closing a daily candle below this was not a good sign at all.
It's important to keep this in mind. Even if BTC sees a move to the upside, it'll likely still struggle to get back above this EMAR.
And it's not getting any better above the EMAR either: BTC's 44,000 dollar resistance level is right above the EMAR.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t5SEkGgk/
- @Forflies
BTC dumped heavily and is now once again trading at the lower boundary of this channel. But unlike the previous times, BTC might even close the daily candle around current prices, which would make it the lowest daily close in 46 days.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lqrK05Dt/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is seeing a small move up at the moment, and is currently trading right at the upper boundary of this channel I've been talking about over the past few days.
A breakout here would be a very small bullish sign. But even if we do get a breakout, BTC still has to battle this massive red Ichimoku cloud on the hourly.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/l0TevBzN/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin actually did break out of this channel last night, but then went right back up and has been trading inside the channel since.
This drop expanded the red Ichimoku cloud on the hourly, meaning BTC could face even more resistance here.
It's important to understand that this red Ichimoku cloud is not just any hourly cloud. This is the biggest of its kind since November 2022!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OkQZ7q94/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the 43,000 dollar level. This could be a good sign - at least the dump stopped.
However, a closer look reveals that the indicators are definitely not in BTC's favour. The hourly EMAR is situated right above the current price and the Ichimoku cloud could turn out to be a problem as well.
Today is Sunday, so I'm not expecting that much volatility today. This could give these indicators some time to become a bit more neutral until tomorrow, but BTC still won't be in a good position by tomorrow.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yfUsafr9/
- @Forflies
Looking at a potential ARB long. The 2 dollar level is not only a nice psychological support, but also a horizontal one - and it currently lines up with the EMAR on the 4h. In addition, it'll line up with a nice green Ichimoku cloud on the 4h as well.
Just keeping an eye on this for now. I'm not setting any orders yet as ARB is still too far from my potential entry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Wmj2S6cf/
- @Forflies