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The best damn analysis you've ever had the pleasure of seeing. Contact: @Forflies Twitter: https://twitter.com/samiloyal_ (DM on Twitter if you can't reach out on Telegram for whatever reason)
It's the day after the halving, and Bitcoin didn't really move a lot. No surprise there - this is in line with previous halvings.
It's currently trading at the bottom of the 64,000 dollar support range and since it's weekend, we might not even get a lot of price action before Monday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JYOkVDoN/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is currently retesting the 64,000 dollar level. An S/R flip here would be good, but it's not looking like this is going to happen as BTC is barely clinging on to this support level.
The halving is in around 10-11 hours.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/crruxvJV/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin keeps sliding lower and lower, which is really not a good sign. The 62,000 dollar level is being tested hard, and the lack of a reaction from the bulls over the past few days is not good - at least not for the bulls.
Bitcoin is about to drop below 62,000 dollars again, and is about to close its lowest 4h candle in 28 days.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NwS5MQ6W/
- @Forflies
Live in 10 minutes to cover this price action
My analysis + your questions.
I have extensively tested everything so hopefully no issues again today but if there is anything, keep your eyes here for the link to a pre-recorded version of the stream.
https://youtube.com/live/KRa8H3SJk1A?feature=share
- @Forflies
Bitcoin briefly slipped below 70,000 dollars, but already reclaimed that level. Altcoins however saw an extended drop, FET being no exception.
Quite a few altcoins are now trading at important support, like FET. If this support breaks, these altcoins could see a leg down as it would mean breaking a month-long support range.
However, I would expect a bounce here, especially since BTC appears to have stopped falling.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8csmCDwL/
- @Forflies
After comments stating that interest rates might not be reduced as much this year, the SPX and the rest of the stock market dropped significantly yesterday. The Dow Jones had its biggest daily loss in over a year, and the SPX saw a massive drop as well, cutting right through support.
This is also impacting the crypto market as we're seeing at the moment. It'll be interesting to see whether BTC can leave the TradFi correlation (or dependency?) behind after the halving. If not, the effect of the halving might not be what the market expects.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uhk7Ixdk/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin continued dumping and is now down 7.5%.
What's much worse, is the fact that it's currently below the 68,000 dollar support. This could mean that we're in a for a retest of the 62,000 dollar level - and there's no support between 62,000 dollars and 52,000 dollars.
I believe this might be the first time BTC is looking this weak right after setting a new ATH.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nkIIYBg0/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is still trading just below 71,000 dollars, which seems to have turned into resistance. This means that we could get an S/R flip here in the future. Trading this would be pretty aggressive, but if the market continues going up, a more aggressive approach might work out really well.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XT89k7Ur/
-@Forflies
Tron is looking interesting. It's still trading inside that asc. triangle and clearly behind the market, but also is also still facing 4h EMAR resistance. In addition, Tron also has this large red Ichimoku cloud on the 4h, which could provide a lot of resistance too.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VnQ1HlqZ/
- @Forflies
The 68,000 dollar level is key resistance for now, but the first test awaits at 66,500 dollars.
If BTC breaks that level we probably go to the 68,000 dollar resistance, if BTC gets rejected, we might go back to 62,000 dollars.
This probably also depends on the TradFi moves on Monday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8J48hUbF/
-@Forflies
The problem with Bitcoin is that it closed candles below this important horizontal support AND below the green Ichimoku cloud on the 4h. There's no support between here and 52,000 dollars. In my opinion, Bitcoin is hanging on by a thread and once it drops, we could see an even stronger dump right down to 52,000 dollars.
If that happens, the situation won't immediately get better: The Ichimoku cloud and the EMAR on the 4h are already bearish, and more downside will just turn these into even stronger resistances too.
Overall, this ATH has been looking really, really weak.
Note: Yesterday was the biggest red daily candle since November 2022, at the time of the FTX crash. The biggest red daily candle in 500 days is definitely not a good sight right after setting a new ATH.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZIDTWYr/
- @Forflies
The market is dropping like a rock as Bitcoin is now trading at its last support before the 52,000 dollar support.
This could be the famous 30% halving dump that we usually seem to get around the halvings.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SN90DOu9/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is currently trading inside an ascending triangle on the hourly - right at its ATH. This looks like some pressure is building up, which could cause BTC to take yet another leg up quite soon.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FKUzv298/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin pumped up to a new ATH yesterday, but has since been trading sideways at 72,000 dollars. Usually, that would be considered a good thing, but now it almost feels a bit like the market isn't sure what to do here, as there's no more resistance left to be broken. Usually, setting a new ATH has resulted in a big pump, so it's quite interesting to see that BTC is trading sideways only 3% above the previous ATH.
Altcoins are currently also seeing a bit of profit-taking, but that might provide some juicy long entries.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e6td2YkW/
- @Forflies
Live on YouTube in 20 minutes for my analysis + your questions!
[LIVE] BITCOIN ABOVE $70,000!!!!! THIS WILL HAPPEN NEXT!?!?!?!?!?!?
https://youtube.com/live/lDoYPl3WeHA?feature=share
- @Forflies
Live in less than 10 minutes
We will be covering my analysis + your questions as usual.
https://youtube.com/live/hmsoZAWcuL4?feature=share
- @Forflies
Bitcoin bounced off the lower trend line of this descending channel, but the worst-case scenario came to pass: A rejection at the 62,000 dollar level.
The 62,000 dollar level was Bitcoin's most important mid-term support and pretty much the only thing that stood between BTC and the 52,000 dollar level. With this level turning into resistance, Bitcoin has nowhere to go but down.
There is still a small chance for Bitcoin: If it overcomes the 62,000 dollar resistance again, there's potential for a small recovery before another potential leg to the downside. But as long as the 62,000 dollar level is acting as resistance, it's looking really bad for Bitcoin.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AaN2pV1u/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin dropped to a 40-day low yesterday, but most importantly, it didn't close a single 4h candle below the 62,000 dollar support. This is absolute key - a drop below the 62,000 dollar level could mean an extended drop down to 52,000 dollars.
However, this neither means that BTC is looking good. After a -4.2% daily candle and a -4.7% daily candle, the current 0.05% daily candle is not really a success.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vPa3ONk4/
- @Forflies
Here's the video ladies & gents ✌️
BITCOIN IN TROUBLE!!!!! THIS WILL HAPPEN NEXT!?!?!?!?!?
https://youtu.be/rZqtkIhPk5g
- @Forflies
Bitcoin closed yesterday's daily candle in the green, despite the huge DXY pump. In my opinion, that is a really strong sign for Bitcoin, especially considering that the DXY also closed a very strong daily candle.
BTC is now trading above 70,000 dollars. A bounce off the 69,000 dollar range could work out well in the short-term.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/s9FliBUa/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin is currently pushing the 66,000 dollar resistance again, for the 4th time. If this level breaks, we could actually expect some upside in the short-term, but I'm only mid-term bullish again once the 68,000 dollar resistance breaks.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DPhIhfIk/
- @Forflies
Small recovery on Biitcoin back above 70,000 dollars, but what I said appears to be the case - not a lot is happening, and I don't expect that to change a lot until the end of the Easter weekend on Tuesday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mdk1XGN7/
- @Forflies
Comment from todays video here
A lot of you will be able to relate to this if you've been through at least one entire crypto cycle so far.
It's worth keeping in mind when you see everyone parading around their enormous short-lived profits.
You want calm, consistent wins which compound over time. You don't want hockey stick growth because:
1. It ties you into situations where your only tool is hope.
2. Making money in stupid ways will guarantee that you don't respect (& therefore won't keep) it.
And that same sensible level headed approach will also guide you to taking profits off the table when it's right for you.
Think like the money that wins in these markets
Hyped money doesn't win.
Scared money doesn't win.
Intentional & calm money, makes money.
✌️
- @Forflies
The market is very calm right now as price is trading sideways right at yesterday's high. I'm not expecting any big moves for the rest of today either - but I believe volatility will continue tomorrow, and I also believe we'll see Bitcoin trade in the opposite direction of the DXY.
Negative correlation between the two is very high right now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zq4vIbi3/
-@Forflies
Bitcoin keeps dropping, even while the DXY is also seeing a small drop. BTC is now trading at 64,000 dollars, but it doesn't really have any support between here and the 62,000 dollar level.
I'm bullish above 66,500 dollars and bearish below 62,000 dollars.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/obOITGaR
-@Forflies
Bitcoin is getting rejected by the 68-69,000 dollar area, which acted as resistance for the first few times BTC tried to break the previous ATH.
At this point, the green Ichimoku cloud on the 4h runs into this potential new horizontal resistance area. We'll soon see which is stronger: This resistance, or the support provided by the cloud.
If BTC gets a clean rejection here, I believe it could retest the 63,000 dollar level soon after, which would be around 8% below the current price.
Shorting here seems like a bad idea to me as we're still in a macro bull market, and BTC still has that important Ichimoku support.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Iv2cEpl4/
- @Forflies
Zooming out, the 69,000 dollar level still looks like a nice long entry actually. The 4h EMAR lines up with this horizontal support, as well as the green Ichimoku cloud. The 72,000 dollar level looks like an interesting long entry on the hourly, but not really on the 4h.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/J74UE2Pn/
- @Forflies
Bitcoin just set a new ATH - again.
But this time it looks like it's for real. As I've been expecting, BTC cleared the 70,000 dollar level without getting rejected this time. Of course it's too early to tell, but at least we didn't get an immediate rejection as shorting here has become a lot more risky.
With Bitcoin at a new ATH, the next altseason could be legendary.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vJv0bKVe/
- @Forflies