HBL Power - Guidance (vs) Reality for FY 2024-25 - YTD Sep 2024
Mgt Guided Flattish Year but PAT of H1 2024-25 grown at 40% due to below reasons
- Operating Margins increased from 17%- 18% to 21%
- Associates started driving profits (H1 > FY 2023-24)
- Other income
Robust Outlook ahead with
- Kavach Loco Orders
- Kavach Track orders (incoming)
- Biggest boost is Electric Trucks from 2025-26
Focus on High Growth Sectors + Market Leaders
Many exited this play due to flattish Guidance
HBLpower
INOX WIND ; Inox Wind bags order from Serentica Renewables
Receives equipment supply order for 60 MW from Serentica Renewables for its 3 MW class wind turbines
Inox Wind to supply the turbines within H1 CY25 for the project which is being executed by Serentica in Karnataka
Multi-year post commissioning O&M services to be part of the contract
This milestone order for IWL opens up large future opportunities to partner with another marquee C&I customer. In its quest to decarbonize energy intensive industries through green power, Serentica has ambitious plans to massively scale up its RE capacities.
CITI ON LIC HOUSING FINANCE
MANAGEMENT MEET TAKEAWAYS
Temporary hitch in Hyd/Bangalore (>1/4 of disbursement) adversely impacting disbursement growth
Retained 10% AUM growth target; (Citi building in 7-8% growth)
Seasonally robust 3Q might not be evident this year; though there may be marginal rise
Tight liquidity pressurizing borrowing cost; to offse offset favorable yield levers
NIMs to sustain at lower end of guidance of 2.7%-2.9%
Resolution through ARC sale for ₹2.5 bn to release provisions
Yield levers include -
Rise in wholesale book share
Plan to scale portfolio of affordable housing launched in Sep
Push towards rate structure tweak
Record 30GW addition in renewable energy this year!
Strong policy push for storage & hybrid energy solutions. 2025 will see even more robust capacity creation, but grid integration remains a key challenge.
"Interest rate cycle to turn in 2025, but I’m bracing for flat to no returns; broader markets may struggle to outperform," says Ashwini Agarwal of Demeter Advisors.
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DHANUKA-AGRITECH-MANAGEMENT MEET-NUVAMA
Infer that the acquisition of two Bayer AG products aids the company’s push into new geographies.
This aligns with its agrochemical manufacturing expansion at Dahej.
While the INR2.24bn revenue potential over twothree years is modest, it helps Dhanuka to enter foreign markets where it lacks a presence.
Product margins are likely to match the company’s averages, with a payback period of five years. Management maintains guidance of 16% growth in H2FY25 and a 100bp YoY EBITDA margin improvement.
The acquisition does not affect our FY26/27 estimates but supports Dhanuka’s long-term plans; retain ‘BUY’ with an unchanged TP of INR2,136 based on Q2FY27E EPS.
Now, Mr. Moderator chips in to jump to management but to the credit of attendee as well as management which did not shy away, question reiterated.
Management responses guiding for full year, however, attendee view - guided for that quarter.
We need more such real concalls than hi hello thanks for the opportunity.
As per question asked by one of the attendees - Management participated in an investor conference in Sept 2024 when 2 months of Q2 were almost over and guided for worst case 2% EBITDA margin where as came up with 1%. Go through this conversation. It is clear that management is not answering the actual question asked and citing the challenges company faced.
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Top Read theoutlookmoney
Mr. Raamdeo's view on markets
KAYNES tech Says Have ₹3,400 Cr Capex For Semicon Biz & ₹1,400 Cr For PCBS
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IGL , MGL , GUJARAT GAS ; Sources says Industry approaches govt for immediate relief to CGD sector
Proposal Seeks Excise Duty Cut From 14% Το 7%
BIG POSITIVE FOR GAS COMPANY
Sharing a list of 25 Stocks -
❇️High Operating Margins
❇️PE < Industry PE
❇️Low Debt
This is not buy sell list , study and then decide
HUGE ORDER BOOK
KALPATARU PROJECTS INTERNATIONAL
CMP : 1276
Market Cap : 21790 cr
Order Book : 60631 cr
Stock P/E : 42.3
ROCE : 16.0 %
ROE : 10.4 %
Price to Sales : 1.07
Debt to equity : 0.94
OPM : 8.31 %
Sales growth : 15.5 %
Promoter holding : 33.5 %
Public holding : 8.23 %
New and Improved Weekly Research Ideas #2
Look into the following stocks very few people are talking about but are very interesting-
All of this again, leveraging The Wrap by
itsTarH
Ashok Kumar Tyagi, MD of #DLF, reveals a hike in the initial down payment to ₹50 lakh (from ₹2-3 lakh) for luxury launches, aiming for a target margin of nearly 45%.
With pre-sales guidance for FY25 at ₹16,000-17,000 crore, he remains confident in achieving the goal. Currently, margins for new sales stand at nearly 40%.
CITI ON M&M FINANCIAL SERVICES
MANAGEMENT MEET TAKEAWAYS
Two pronged strategies - Protect moat in Vehicle financing, and diversification
Looking for scale up in mortgage, ramp up SME/LAP and build payment biz
Guided for 5-7% disbursements (vs 2% growth in H1) and high teens AUM growth in FY25
Fee levers like corporate agency, co Bour branded cards key RoA Delta
Opex/Asset at 2.7% with +10bp upward bias to expand footprint
To evaluate equity raise in 2HFY25
EMS Sector has not even begun to scratch the surface
Total capex incurred by listed companies in the sector as of 2024 is hardly ~2700 Crs. Single companies in China do 3X that
Total Capex by ALL listed EMS companies
Mar'24 ~2727 Crs
Mar'23 ~1823 Crs
Mar'22 ~1387 Crs
Mar'21 ~510 Crs
Mar'20 ~537 Crs
Mar'19 ~340 Crs
Mar'18 ~289 Crs
Mar'17 ~263 Crs
Mar'16 ~213 Crs
Mar'15 ~192 Crs
Will maintain CAGR of 30-40% over the next few years on washing machine business, Intend to keep margin at around 7.5-8%
Not giving a very bullish call on margins as we have to monitor competitive intensity
Vikas Gupta, PG Electroplast to CNBC-TV18
Revenue guidance for FY25 & FY26 will be 15%. may not meet FY25 EBITDA margin guidance of 7.5%, but hopeful of reaching there
Civil business order intake slowed down due to slowdown in public capex
Vimal Kejriwal, KEC International to CNBC-TV18
Skipper Ltd.
- Key Products: Transmission towers, telecom towers, solar structures & more
- Expanding global presence with diverse markets
At the end, it was good on SGMart management not to dodge the question and remove attendee from concall which some of managements do. However, I hope they would take it as a lesson and will be more cautious on future guidance and specially, when the guidance has an element of availability of information having spent 2 months in the quarter
Learning for investors -
1. Do not take any management commentary on face value. I see now a days a good trend towards reading concall but a bad trend towards taking any aggressive numbers given by managements on face value
2. Do not only look at current concalls but go through all old one to understand the difference between management "Kathani (what they say)" and "Karni (what they do)"
This is one way to understand management quality. Hope this thread was useful
What are your views on SGMart management in case you are tracking the company? Please share in comments. Also, do highlight if you came across similar interesting conference call
The attendee again highlights is question
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SGMart Q2 concall is very interesting.
Here it goes -
Company posted inventory losses in Q2 due to sharp fall in steel prices in Q2. Against 2% guided EBITDA margin, did 1% EBITDA margin.
Orderbook stands strong, better than last year
FY28 revenue guidance of Rs 9,000 cr includes Rs 7,000 cr from EMS
-Jairam Sampath, KaynesTech
KAYNES Tech Says Stick To Revenue Growth Guidance Of ₹3,000 Cr & 15%+ EBITDA Margin For FY25 - CNBCTV18
Orderbook Stands Strong, Better Than Last Year
Have Fairly Good Visibility In FY28 Driven By OSAT Biz
Its An Aggressively Demanding Market With A Lot Of Execution Challenges
AURIONPRO Solutions Management Says Have a negligible presence in Europe before Fenixys acquisition
We expect European revenue contribution to reach double digits within 2 years
Fenixys is a profitable company and the acquisition will be EPS accretive
Fenixys is expected to achieve Aurionpro's margin level of 20%+ in 18 months
WABAG Ranked 3rd among "World's top 50 Private Water Operators"
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ORDER BOOK MORE THAN MARKET CAP
RKEC PROJECTS
Market Cap : Rs 227 Cr.
TTM Sales : Rs 419 cr
Order Book : Rs 1170 cr
Order Book more than 4 times of Market Cap and approx 3 times of Sales.
Current Price : 94.5
Stock P/E : 8.98
Book Value : 74.1
ROCE : 16.0 %
ROE : 12.6 %
Debt to equity : 0.94
Promoter holding : 66.1 %
OPM : 13.7 %
Sales growth : 51.0 %
Med Sales Gwth 10Yrs
17.4 %
No Buy/Sell recommendation.
Credit : CMA Gurvinder Malhotra
Don't see any revenue or volume growth in FY25, impact of Karnataka duty + rise in iron ore prices would lead to Rs 3,000/tonne price hikeCopied from stockaajorkal telegram channel
Finding it very difficult to increase prices due to China dumping, would want the scope of dumping investigation to be expanded beyond flat rolled products
RK Goyal, MD , Kalyani Steels to CNBC-TV18
