Market Leadership
- 10th largest international marine and port facilities contractor globally.
- 12th largest contractor in the bridges segment globally.
- 42nd largest contractor in the transportation segment.
- 18th largest contractor in the transmission lines and aqueducts segment.
AFCONS INFRASTRUCTURE LTD
CMP: 475
Companies with FII Stake increase in September & Good Sales and Profit Growth:
👉All E Tech
👉ASK Automotive
👉Aurionpro Sol.
👉AYM Syntex
👉Bajaj Healthcare
👉Balu Forge
👉BLS Internat.
👉BSE
👉Dev Information
👉Divi's Lab.
👉Dixon Technolog.
👉E2E Networks
👉Emerald Finance
👉Garware Hi Tech
👉GE Vernova T&D
👉Genus Power
👉Guj. Toolroom
👉Hubtown
👉IIFL Securities
👉Indian Energy Ex
👉Jagsonpal Pharma
👉Jupiter Life Lin
👉Kirl.Pneumatic
👉Marksans Pharma
👉Naperol Invest.
👉Natl. Aluminium
👉Netweb Technol.
👉Newgen Software
👉Nippon Life Ind.
👉One Global Serv
👉PDS
👉Poly Medicure
👉Prudent Corp.
👉PTC Industries
👉R S Software (I)
👉S C I
👉Shaily Engineer.
👉Shakti Pumps
👉Shivalik Rasayan
👉Sterling & Wils.
👉T R I L
👉Tips Music
👉Yatharth Hospit.
@fundamental3
Alpha Ideas 20 20 Meet - 2024 Edition
1. Indostar Capital - Danesh Mistry
2. Hawkins India - Prajesh Maroo
3. NSE India (Unlisted) - Pritesh Vora
4. Cantabil Retail - Anshul Saigal
5. JM Financial - Jatin khemani
6. HIL Limited - Jiten Parmar
7. Greaves Cotton - Tushar Bohra
8. Sunteck Realty - Rushmik Oza
9. KRN Heat Exchanger - Abhisar Jain
10. Shankara Building Products - Abhinav & Raghav Aggarwal
11. Sai Silks Kalamandir - Ashwini Agrawal
12. Welspun Corp - Rakesh Laroia
13. Arvind Smartspaces - Ishmohit Arora
14. India Shelter Finance - Darshan Deora
15. E2E Networks - Sivaramakrishnan R
16. SAREGAMA INDIA - Aashish Upglanawar
17. MOIL - Digant Haria
18. Atlanta Limited - Ankit Kanodia
19. PG Electroplast - Vivek Mashrani
20. HBL Power and Atul Limited - Abhishek Basumallick
Vivek Mashrani
Techno Funda Research
PG Electroplast
CMP 628, MCap 16450 Crs
Ac, Washing Mchines, LED, Cowrs
Machine Framework
M - Mega Trend
A - Price Action
C - Competitive Edge
H - High RoCE
I - Inv in Co
N - New Products
E - Execution
Raised 500 Cr earlier with good names in QIP
Again raising 1500 Cr in QIP
2nd largest RAC- Focusing on Split AC
In 3 Years- 3-4x Capacity
Why PGEL
- Evonomy of Scale
- cross selling
- 70% Backward integration
- ebitda margin - higher than peers
- asset t/o RoCe increasing
JV with Jaina Group - 50-50
Access to Google ODM License
IT hardware PLU scheme - Cherry on cake
Walk the talk delivered higher growth in last 2 years
Now FY 25 guidance increased from 54% to 70% YOY
Anti Thesis
Competitive
Climate
Regulatory
Tech changes
Digant Haria
Greenedge Wealth
MOIL
CMP: 297, MCap: 6038Cr
Manganese - additive into steel mfg.
Steel demand is huge, capex is huge - manganese is automatic getting demand
3 states - orisa, Karnataka, MH
Once demand is up- import will further increase, currently only serving 40% in India.
MOIL 53% market share in India.
Sandur 15% Tata Steel - Captive
2010 to 2024
Price of manganese- 6.5 a kg to 11 rs a kg
Domestic demand of India is superb
Price of mangnese slightly went below 9 which is a long term average
MOIL made 2-3 rs per kg.
2008-23 stagnant
2024 30% growth
2025 guidance 14% growth
Stated vision for FY30
12% CAGR - 35L Ton
Ministry of Steel calls them in each 15 days to review.
Improved Tech, Manpower productivity
Production guidance from existing mines revised from 20L to 25L
34% employee cost - reduction can further increase the margins
Global average 18%
No of employee reducing and production is increasing
Emd - used in lithium ion battery, currently only player in India currently 15% market share
Rest imported
With volume guidance, profit for fy27 550-800Cr
Darshan Deora
Indvest Group
India Shelter
CMP: 644, MCap: 6914Crs
Affordable housing loan- 5 to 25L
100% secured portfolio
52% LTV
73% self employed 27% salaried
Chairman- Ex-Gruh Finance
CEO - Ex-Chola, entire team ex-Chola
AUM: 48% CAGR in 10 years
Pat : 68% CAGR
Planning IRR: 25% in 3 years
Massive operating leverage
Rakesh Loria
Oldpine Investors
Welspun Corp
CMP: 680, MCap: 17,800Cr
India
DI Pipes - Oil & gas, Jal Jeevan
Sintex - Acquired
ABG shipyard building - 750 Cr price(recd back from selling scrap)
2022- Huge Capex done
Bought companies at throwaway valuation
Sintex turnaround
US - oil and Gas grow by 50%, this company will get benefit
Plant is fully booked for 2 years
10000Cr order from Saudi Aramco - 2 yr order booked
Welspun TMT bar - 2x by FY27
Welspun speciality solution- double volume by FY27
More focus on Sintex
Huge distribution
Focus shifting to more export and product mix will also change
Sintex sales will 2x by FY27
Dependency on US will decrease
Present in almost all products compared to peers
Sintex - Joker in the Bag - 11% market share
Plan to increase this to 12-15% in 18 Months
Foraying into Plastic Pipes
Debt is at comfortable
Margins - Sustainable
Agrawal Brothers
Fluid AI
Shankara Building Produxts
CMP: 652, MCap: 4052 Crs
90 stores in South
Steel Tubes & Pipe - 60%
Steel Flats -29%
7 year transition from commodity business to more value added.
Focus on non-steel - Ceramic, PVC
10% business growing at 30> CAGR
6% EBITDA vs 3% ebitda of steel business
Private label ceramic side
Modular kitchen focus, brand , quartz sink
Decreased store, avg ticket size increasing and change in product mix
Focusing on Geographical expansion - Currently 86% in south
Product mix change
Digital Retail in home product
Demerger of Marketplace and mfg business
74 Cr PAt of marketplace which is higher roe and higher pat business
30x PE FY24 - Marketplace - 2200Cr
Mfg business 0.75 - 300 Cr valuation
Risk - 37% business of apl Apollo
SG Mart is competitors
Relation with APL Apollo key monitor able
Stake of APL in this company - 6%
Rushmik Oza
9 Rays Equiresearch
Sunteck Realty
CMP: 493, MCap: 7223 Crs
GDV:37948 Crs
Focussed on MMR Market (39% Market Share interns of value wise PAN India Market)
Acquired 50 Mn Sq Ft
2009 to 2014 - Asset Heavy Model
Shifted to Asset light - Higher Margin
Now moving to super luxury segment
Realisation per sq ft improved by 55% - EBITDA margins improved
New GDV come from south Mumbai
Dubai - Near Burj Khalifa Project
Launching 2026
3-4 years inventory will get exhausted
Commercial side -
Capital Value 5000Cr
Goregaon, just behind Nesco
250 Cr avg rental in Goregaon ODC -100% own construction
12x EBITDA
Valued to 3250 Cr
Pre sales 30-35%
3 year
Revenue 4x
EBItDa CaGR 60+%
SoTP Valuation
FY28 Target Price- 1200
Jiten Parmar
Aurum Capital
HIL Limited
CMP: 2462, MCap: 1857 Crs
1/3rd business coming from roofing business
1/3rd Parador: Acquired in 2018 and then market collapsed, Market share improved, loss making
Polymer solution: aiming 30% growth
Top line acquisition.
Planning to get back to 10% EBITDA Margin from 2-4%
Things to watch out and potential of Re-Rating
Pipe and fitting grow to 1500 Cr
1 Bn usd rev in 3-4 years
Roofing and Building Solution Business Cycle turns
Parador turning profitable
Anshul Saigal
Saigal Capital Advisor
Cantabil Retail
CMP: 217, MCap: 1800 Crs
15L Garment Capacity + Outsource Capacity
560 Brand Stores, adding 80 Stores PA
Full Family Store: One stop shop
Perception: Corporate Governance about company - Changed GT as Stat Auditor and Deloitte as Internal Auditor
In Retail Category- Apparel & Apparel Exports (fastest growing category) will grow 18% in upcoming 3 years
Organised will grow at 35% in upcoming 3 years
Focusing on Fast Fashion
Risk- Same store sales growth negative in last 5 out of 6 Qtrs
Q2FY25: Not that good
Pritesh Vora
Mission Street
NSE India - Unlisted
5th largest economy
MCap to GDP is low
Household assets dominated by Physical assets
Leader in Duopoly Market
84% Market share in Cash Market in 2014 to 94% in 2024
F&O Volumes grew in all other years except 2009 in Global Crisis
High Cash flow conversion
79% EBITDA Margin
Revenue grew from 3000Cr to 14780Cr
Still Equity Penetration is very low in India
Digitisation, Tech leading to wider reach
NSE : 82% Trading income vs other stock exchange, still a lot of space for Non-Trading income
EPS grew from 14 to 200 rs in last 10 years
Equity option is driving 65% of revenue
F&O Volume - Govt Worry
20 Expiry reduced from 7-8
contract size increase
Higher Margin on expiry
Removal of Calender spread
Public Listing looking closer
NSE requested SEBI in Aug-24 for NOC
Net Impact of revised fees - Net positive for companies
Risk- Further measure for FnO
Delayed IPO, dark pool for exchanges.
Daily Exchange Filing Update
Danesh Mistry
Investor First Advisor
Indostar Capital
CMP: 260, MCap: 3500Cr
Promoter: Brookfield
What Changed?
From FY15 to FY24 - shifted from promoter loan, special situation to now SME loan, More granular loan
More Focussed on Retail - 95% portfolio
NIM 6.5% broadly range bound
Sale of HFC Subsidiary - Still regulatory approval needed, possible by Jun-25
This will give them risk capital
650 Cr Networth - getting 1700Cr money (2.8x P/B)
Focus on Vehicle Loan : Scrapping Vehicle & BS Vi drive the growth
60% Source of Fund: Bank, increasing further
Low leverage 2x, HFC Sales- Big trigger, 60% customer are more than 700 CIBIL Score, no unsecured lending
Disbursement start improving
✍️ITD Cementation India Ltd: (M Cap: ₹ 8,894 Cr.)
🔹Company secured a ₹1,937 Crore contract for constructing a multi-story commercial building in Uttar Pradesh.
Incorporated in 1959, Afcons Infrastructure Limited is an infrastructure engineering and construction company.
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Will share you one detail study on one stock which have good potential over long term
Stay tuned 😊🙏
Very Good quarter for many Pharma companies
High Double digit growth (17-22%)💹
Lot of Interesting names⏬
~ Windlas
~ Supriya
~ Marksans Pharma
~ SMS
~ Caplin Point
~ Innova Cap
More detail Join @companyupdate
Abhisekh Basumalik
Intelsense
1. HBL Power
CMP: 541, MCap 15000Cr
Not much revenue from Kavach System
Recently got into Electric truck tech
Key man risk- Grand daughter coming
2nd largest Ni-cd Battery Producer
Fresh tendering of kavach
2. Atul Limited
First company inaugurated by Nehru Ji
Huge Capex, operating leverage kick in
Seeing growth in every segment
API, Bulk deal - all segment growing
Number started improving in quarterly results
Ankit Kanoria
Smart Sync Services
Atlanta Limited
CMP:54 , MCap: 440Cr
Earlier used to do EPC business, optionalities for arbitration Awards
2024 - ventured into real estate
Multiple filings on vivad se vishwas money coming from different project
PROMOTER - 1% CLAIM COMMISION
means expecting higher claim compensation
Recently awarded 2 project - Borivali(redevelopment)& Thane
Thane 5L sq ft
7000 rs sq ft rate - 350 Cr
Promoter shareholding increased to 75%
PWC Auditor resign, promoter verified that they were ready to share
Cash 120 Cr
Land 70Cr
Existing Projects 400Crs
Vs Current MCap 440 Cr
Aashish Upganalwar
Invesco PMS
SAREGAMA INDIA
CMP:488, Mcap: 9427Cr
Users of paid music streaming subscription increasing
India just 1% paid subscriber in population
High potential market 9x growth possible per user vs ad based
50% revenue is coming from Youtube Views
2 Companies only - Tips and Saregama
Tips - 30k song
Saregama - 1.5L song, 70 Films, 6k TV Content, 45 Digital series
Aggresive on content acquisition
Current 20% market share, adding 30% incremental share in the industry.
Revenue come from lag because of high investment in coming content, bottom line is started declining.
FY26, PAT will start recovering, which is degrowing as of now.
Ishmohit Arora
SOIC
Arvind Smartspaces
CMP: 870, MCap: 3970Cr
Formed Business, Professional Management and Demerger
Market share of listed players are growing
Inventory Months are lowest
Business -
Long term platform funding from 2019 HDFC Capital
200Cr net cash in Balance sheet
Joint Development and Joint ventures - Quick turnaround, balance sheet is asset light
75Mn sq ft is upcoming
65% Ahemdabad, Gujarat
34% Banglore
1% Pune
Pre sales 1107 Cr in FY24, Collection 876Cr at 37% CAGR
Net cash positive
Pre Sales 30-35% in FY25
Completed 6 Mn Sq ft
1000Cr Ahemdabad Aqua Project
RISK
SLOW DOWN in Real Estate
Natural Calamity
Macro Shock
Ashwini Agrawal
Demeter Advisor
Sai Silks Kalamandir
CMP: 652, MCap: 4052 Crs
Largest apparel of South India
4 Formats - Kalamandir-17%, Mandir, varahmahalakshmi-47%, kLM Mall-33%
Tech First Approach
Promoter - Ex-SAP, Ex-FIS
Premiumisation Play
Expansion of varahmahalakshmi - 100k sq ft to 250k sq ft., higher Rev, Higher EBITDA
Focus on store expansion, sourcing & Design
Tech led inventory Management
Abhisar Jain
Monarch AIF
KRN Heat Exchanger
CMP: 652, MCap: 4052 Crs
Heat Exchanger - difficult to crack product in commercial HVAC segment
Strong & Durable Growth
342 Cr Fresh issue
Finned Tube Heat Exchanger [21% Market in India in Whole Market]
KNR part of this
HVAC business growing at 15% CAGR in India
High Demand - Industrial, Mfg, Capex revival, Data Centre Demand, Demand from Railway etc
Very Tech and engineering product
KNR first mover advantage
Customised - Top MNCs demand - If failed then 5-10 years business gone- So unique Moat
Promoter - Santosh Yadav, ex-lloyd, First Gen Entrepreneur
Do work with marquee clients
More than 100 Customer
Daikin 33% Market share
Capex 350Cr 6x of existing facility
Rev potential of 400 Crs
Entering into new products - locomotive, referigerator side, focus on exports.
Demand in exports - huge , but unable to deliver due to capacity constraint
Asset turn 5-6x
New Capacity Target of 2000Cr revenue
Risk - Key man, delay in ramp up of new plant, quality issues, demand slowdown in HVAC, Margin risk
Tushar Bohra
INVEXA Capital
GREAVES COTTON
CMP: 162, MCap: 3700 Crs
Pivoting from 3w diesel engine company to Greaves Finance, Greaves Electric Mobility, Greaves Tech, Retail, Engineering - A Complete Eco-System
Must Read Annual Report
Acquired companies and changed them completely
Transitioning to B2B2C Player
Thesis is turning around into Eco-system.
Why this is an unloved stock?
Legacy of 160 Years
Leadership in 3W segment
6x in next 6 years
One of best EV, One of the highest RoCE
Highly experienced, most recognised brand
Least owned by institutions
EBITDA gone to 3% due to losses in electric
All acquisitions are top class and balance sheet is ok, not much risk
Product diversification, sector diversification, geographical diversification, business model pivot, Tech
Export increased from 53 Cr to 182 Cr, can go in 1000Cr
Focus on operation
Management Changes
Bold Vision, Value addition
15000Cr Revenue target by 2030
EBITDA of electric mobility may turnaround
2x the ebitda of base business and stable ebitda of electric business
Read Q2 Concall
Jatin khemani
Stalwart Advisor
JM Financial
CMP: 129, MCap: 12300 Crs
Earlier issues - Wholesale lending, ARC.
Discount to book value
May-24 : No more money in wholesale and ARC business.
Why Mispricing go away?
Current Inv Bank: 700Cr annual PAT
Profit can be double in 4-5 years in IBanking
Capital Market is on Golden decade
Asset Light Model - can easily get 20/25x PE
Triggers
RBI Ban lifted
Shifting from lending to Fee Income via AIF, no pain to BS
Focus on Affordable housing
2000Cr loan book, 2x in 3 years
Wealth Book- 1L Crs, from Top10 to now focus on Top3
AMC - 12500Crs, PMS - 2500 Cr
Aiming for 25000Cr in 3 years
Discount Trading App- Blinkx
Anshul Saigal
Saigal Capital Advisor
Cantabil Retail
CMP: 217, MCap: 1800 Crs
15L Garment Capacity + Outsource Capacity
560 Brand Stores, adding 80 Stores PA
Full Family Store: One stop shop
Perception: Corporate Governance about company - Changed GT as Stat Auditor and Deloitte as Internal Auditor
In Retail Category- Apparel & Apparel Exports (fastest growing category) will grow 18% in upcoming 3 years
Organised will grow at 35% in upcoming 3 years
Focusing on Fast Fashion
Risk- Same store sales growth negative in last 5 out of 6 Qtrs
Q2FY25: Not that good
Prajesh Maroo
MoneyCurves Analystics
Hawkins India
CMP: 8450, MCap: 4470Cr
Hawkins india - Google trends shows higher demand in google trends compared to other player
Higher margin, sustainable growth, brand conscious, Quality Leader
Higher RoCE, even after cash in Balance Sheet
Ready for Capex, spending more.
No interaction with promoter, only AGM people can meet and discuss
Competitors facing internal headwinds.
Valuations are bit stretched but things are good vs other competitors.
✍️JTL Industries Ltd: (M Cap: ₹ 3,750 Cr.)
🔹Company emerged as the L1 bidder for the Jal Jeevan Mission project, securing a ₹265 Cr order for supplying 35,473 MT of ISI-certified Galvanized Mild Steel (GMS) tubes, covering 95% of the required sizes.
