fundamental3 | Unsorted

Telegram-канал fundamental3 - Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

-

Subscribe to a channel

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

LIST OF 90+ Companies across various sectors🔥

Management Guiding for 15-200 % Growth💹

All stocks must be on radar
Bookmark 🔖 for future reference


🔸Krsnaa Diagnostics:
- 25+ % REV growth
- 25-26 % EBITDA Margins

🔸Gravita India
- 25 % Volume Growth
- 35 % Profit Growth
- RoCE : 25 %

🔸POCL
- 20 % REV Growth
- 20 % Profit Growth
- RoCE : 20 %

🔸Antony Waste
- 20+ % REV Growth
- EBITDA Margins : 23-24 %

🔸Ganesha Ecosphere
- REV : 1500-1600 Cr for FY25
- EBITDA Margins : 14-15 %

🔸Tinna Rubber
- REV : 900 Cr by FY27 (35 % CAGR)
- EBITDA Margins : 18 %
- RoCE : 30 %

🔸Va Tech Wabag
- REV : 15-20%
- EBITDA Margins: 13-15%
- Orderbook: 3x of Revenue
- RoE: >15%, RoCE: >20%

🔸Salzer Electronics
- 18-23 % REV Growth
- EBITDA Margins : 10-10.5 %
Smart Meter (New Vertical)
- REV : 200 Cr for FY25
- REV : 1000 Cr for FY26
- EBITDA Margins : 14 %
Guidance does not include contribution from smart meter

🔸Indo count
- 20-25 % REV Growth
- EBITDA Margins : 16-18%
- Double the Revenue in the Next 3-4 Years
- EBITDA Margins 18-20 % as branded mix increases
- Volume guidance: 110-115 Mn Mtrs

🔸GoodLuck India
- 15-20 % REV Growth
- Margin Expansion by increase in VAP
- Defence next big opportunity

🔸JustDial:
- 15 % REV Growth
- EBITDA margins 27-28 %
- Net Cash on B/S 4750 Cr+
- Dividend policy to be announced soon

🔸Yatharth Hospital
-
2800-3000 Beds by FY28
- ARPOB growth 10 %
- Increase in occupancy

🔸Supriya Lifescience
- 20+ % REV growth
- EBITDA Margins 30%+

🔸TRIL
- REV : 2000 Cr by FY25
- REV :
4500-5000 Cr by FY27
- Long term EBITDA Margins : 16-17 %

🔸SG Mart
- FY25 REV :
7000-8000 Cr (2.6 X)
- E FY27 REV : 18,000-20,000 Cr
- 2.5% EBITDA Margins

🔸Shriram Properties
Guidance FY27
- 2 X Booking : 5000 Cr
- 3 X REV : 3000 Cr
- 4 X PAT : 300 Cr

🔸Senco Gold
- 18-20 % REV Growth
driven by 12-13% SSSG and new store openings

🔸Shakti Pumps
- REV Guidance ~ 30 %+
- Margins at least 15-16 %
Long Term Guidance : 25-30 % growth

🔸Marksans Pharma
- 3000 Cr REV by FY26
- Doubling REV in US & North America
- Reaching top 5 private label OTC
- M&A led growth in Europe

🔸Dhabriya Polywood
- REV Guidance 25 % for next few years
- Orderbook 140 Cr
- ROCE will improve

🔸Lumax Auto:
- 15-20 % REV growth
- Margins will be sustained

🔸EMS:
- 1000 Cr REV by FY25
- 30 % REV Growth
- Margins to be maintained

🔸Jash:
- 675-700 Cr REV by FY25
- 25-30 % REV growth
- Margins to improve

🔸Vaibhav Global:
- 14-17 % Revenue Growth
- Mid Teens growth in long term
- Breakeven for Germany in H2FY25
- Margins Expansion in the next few years
- Operating Leverage will drive Profitability

🔸Rategain:
- Double REV by FY27 (26 % CAGR)
- Margins Expansion 150-200 bps
- Holds over 1000 Cr in B/S

🔸KEI Industries:
- 16-17 % REV growth
- 11 % EBITDA margins

🔸Anand Rathi:
- On Track to surpass FY25 guidance
- 910 Cr REV & 280 Cr PAT for FY25 (25 %+)
- Long term guidance 20-25 % growth

🔸L&TFH:
-  Retail 25 % AUM Growth
- >95 % Retailisation
- ROA 2.8-3 %, NPA < 1 %

🔸Gulf Oil:
- Lubricants Volume growth 3-4 %
- 2-3 X growth than Industry
- Margins ~ 12-14 %

🔸Happiest Minds:
- 30-35% REV growth for FY25
- Margins 20-22 %
- Organic + Inorganic Expansion
- Long term guidance $ 1 Bn

🔸EMIL:
- Double Digit REV growth
- 25-30 stores addition in FY25

🔸Aditya Vision
- Double Digit REV growth
- 25-30 stores addition in FY25
- 200 Stores by FY26

🔸Ujjivan SFB
- Loan & Deposit Growth: 20%
- RoE: 20%
- Credit Cost: 1.7%
- Secured book 35 % by FY25 end
- Universal bank opportunity

🔸Utkarsh SFB
- Advances Growth: 30%
- Deposit Growth > 30 %
- Increase in secured book
- Credit Cost: 2%
- RoA : 2 % & RoE : 18 %

🔸Suryoday SFB
- Advance: 30-35%
- Deposits: 40-45%
- NIMs: 9.5-9.7%
- NNPA: <0.6%
- ROE: 14-16%
- ROA: 2.2-2.3%

🔸Jana SFB
- Loan & Deposit Growth: 20%
- RoE: 19-21%
- PAT: 30-40%
- RoA: 1.8-2%
- Credit Cost: 1.7%

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Major Projects (by contract value):

C2 - Mumbai Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail: ₹5,322.76 Cr (16.77%)

Greater Male Connectivity Project, Maldives: ₹2,388.46 Cr (7.52%)

Jamrani Dam Project, Uttarakhand: ₹2,021.99 Cr (6.37%)

Basania Multipurpose Dam, Madhya Pradesh: ₹1,675.89 Cr (5.28%)

DC-05, Delhi MRTS Phase IV: ₹1,399.39 Cr (4.41%)

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Client-wise Order Book:

Government: ₹22,160.24 Cr (69.80%)

Multilateral: ₹6,372.37 Cr (20.07%)

Private: ₹3,214.81 Cr (10.13%)

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Order Book

As of June 30, 2024, Afcons Infrastructure Limited had an order book valued at ₹31,747.43 Cr.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

International Presence

Afcons has delivered projects in 30 countries, including major infrastructure and construction projects in Ghana, Zambia, Kuwait, the Maldives, etc.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Revenue Bifurcation

Urban Infrastructure - 48%

Hydro & Underground - 27.75%

Surface Transport - 9.75%

Marine and Industrial - 8.5%

Oil & Gas - 6%

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Business Profile

Afcons Infrastructure Limited is the flagship infrastructure, engineering, and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji Group, a diversified Indian conglomerate with over six decades of legacy.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Incorporated in 1959, Afcons Infrastructure Limited is an infrastructure engineering and construction company.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Will share you one detail study on one stock which have good potential over long term

Stay tuned 😊🙏

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Very Good quarter for many Pharma companies

High Double digit growth (17-22%)💹

Lot of Interesting names⏬
~ Windlas
~ Supriya
~ Marksans Pharma
~ SMS
~ Caplin Point

~ Innova Cap

More detail Join @companyupdate

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Abhisekh Basumalik
Intelsense

1. HBL Power
CMP: 541, MCap 15000Cr


Not much revenue from Kavach System
Recently got into Electric truck tech

Key man risk- Grand daughter coming

2nd largest Ni-cd Battery Producer
Fresh tendering of kavach

2. Atul Limited
First company inaugurated by Nehru Ji

Huge Capex, operating leverage kick in
Seeing growth in every segment
API, Bulk deal - all segment growing

Number started improving in quarterly results

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Ankit Kanoria
Smart Sync Services

Atlanta Limited
CMP:54 , MCap: 440Cr


Earlier used to do EPC business, optionalities for arbitration Awards
2024 - ventured into real estate

Multiple filings on vivad se vishwas money coming from different project

PROMOTER - 1% CLAIM COMMISION
means expecting higher claim compensation

Recently awarded 2 project - Borivali(redevelopment)& Thane

Thane 5L sq ft
7000 rs sq ft rate - 350 Cr

Promoter shareholding increased to 75%

PWC Auditor resign, promoter verified that they were ready to share

Cash 120 Cr
Land 70Cr
Existing Projects 400Crs

Vs Current MCap 440 Cr

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Aashish Upganalwar
Invesco PMS

SAREGAMA INDIA
CMP:488, Mcap: 9427Cr


Users of paid music streaming subscription increasing

India just 1% paid subscriber in population

High potential market 9x growth possible per user vs ad based

50% revenue is coming from Youtube Views

2 Companies only - Tips and Saregama
Tips - 30k song
Saregama - 1.5L song, 70 Films, 6k TV Content, 45 Digital series

Aggresive on content acquisition
Current 20% market share, adding 30% incremental share in the industry.

Revenue come from lag because of high investment in coming content, bottom line is started declining.

FY26, PAT will start recovering, which is degrowing as of now.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Ishmohit Arora
SOIC

Arvind Smartspaces
CMP: 870, MCap: 3970Cr

Formed Business, Professional Management and Demerger

Market share of listed players are growing
Inventory Months are lowest

Business -
Long term platform funding from 2019 HDFC Capital
200Cr net cash in Balance sheet

Joint Development and Joint ventures - Quick turnaround, balance sheet is asset light

75Mn sq ft is upcoming
65% Ahemdabad, Gujarat
34% Banglore
1% Pune

Pre sales 1107 Cr in FY24, Collection 876Cr at 37% CAGR

Net cash positive
Pre Sales 30-35% in FY25

Completed 6 Mn Sq ft

1000Cr Ahemdabad Aqua Project


RISK
SLOW DOWN in Real Estate
Natural Calamity
Macro Shock

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Ashwini Agrawal
Demeter Advisor

Sai Silks Kalamandir
CMP: 652, MCap: 4052 Crs

Largest apparel of South India
4 Formats - Kalamandir-17%, Mandir, varahmahalakshmi-47%, kLM Mall-33%
Tech First Approach
Promoter - Ex-SAP, Ex-FIS

Premiumisation Play
Expansion of varahmahalakshmi - 100k sq ft to 250k sq ft., higher Rev, Higher EBITDA
Focus on store expansion, sourcing & Design
Tech led inventory Management

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

BALANCE SHEET

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Geography-wise Order Book:

India: ₹24,003.66 Cr (75.61%)

Outside India: ₹7,743.77 Cr (24.39%)

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Order Book Break Down

Business Vertical-wise Order Book:


Marine and Industrial: ₹2,721.83 Cr (8.57% of the total order book)

Surface Transport: ₹3,091.27 Cr (9.74%)

Urban Infrastructure:

Underground and elevated metro: ₹11,742.80 Cr (36.99%)

Elevated corridors and bridges: ₹3,575.78 Cr (11.26%)

Hydro and Underground: ₹8,819.44 Cr (27.78%)

Oil and Gas: ₹1,796.30 Cr (5.66%)

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Noteworthy Projects

1. Ghana Rail Project
2. Chenab Bridge
3. Fourth Container Terminal, Jawaharlal Nehru Port, Mumbai
4. Dry Bulk Cargo Terminal, Ivory Coast
5. Maharashtra Samruddhi Mahamarg (Package
6. Jammu-Udhampur Highway
7. South Surra Road Project, Kuwait
8. Lusaka City Decongestion Project, Zambia
9. Kolkata Metro
10. Atal Tunnel, Rohtang
11. MG Setu Bridge over the Ganga, Patna
12. Annaram Barrage (Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project)

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Project Details

In the last 11 years, company has completed 79 projects across 17 countries with a total contract value of Rs. 563.05 billion. As of June 30, 2024, it had 65 active projects (i.e., ongoing projects) across 12 countries.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Business Verticals

Their business model revolves around executing complex, large-scale EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) projects across five major verticals:

A) Marine and Industrial: Projects like ports, harbor jetties, LNG tanks, and material handling systems.

B) Surface Transport: Involving highways, railways, roads, and interchanges.

C) Urban Infrastructure: Focusing on metro works, bridges, flyovers, and elevated corridors.

D) Hydro and Underground:
Involving dams, tunnels, underground works, and water and irrigation projects.

E) Oil and Gas: Executing offshore and onshore oil and gas projects.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Market Leadership
- 10th largest international marine and port facilities contractor globally.
- 12th largest contractor in the bridges segment globally.
- 42nd largest contractor in the transportation segment.
- 18th largest contractor in the transmission lines and aqueducts segment.

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

AFCONS INFRASTRUCTURE LTD
CMP: 475

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Companies with FII Stake increase in September & Good Sales and Profit Growth:

👉All E Tech
👉ASK Automotive
👉Aurionpro Sol.
👉AYM Syntex
👉Bajaj Healthcare
👉Balu Forge
👉BLS Internat.
👉BSE
👉Dev Information
👉Divi's Lab.
👉Dixon Technolog.
👉E2E Networks
👉Emerald Finance
👉Garware Hi Tech
👉GE Vernova T&D
👉Genus Power
👉Guj. Toolroom
👉Hubtown
👉IIFL Securities
👉Indian Energy Ex
👉Jagsonpal Pharma
👉Jupiter Life Lin
👉Kirl.Pneumatic
👉Marksans Pharma
👉Naperol Invest.
👉Natl. Aluminium
👉Netweb Technol.
👉Newgen Software
👉Nippon Life Ind.
👉One Global Serv
👉PDS
👉Poly Medicure
👉Prudent Corp.
👉PTC Industries
👉R S Software (I)
👉S C I
👉Shaily Engineer.
👉Shakti Pumps
👉Shivalik Rasayan
👉Sterling & Wils.
👉T R I L
👉Tips Music
👉Yatharth Hospit.

@fundamental3

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Alpha Ideas 20 20 Meet - 2024 Edition

1. Indostar Capital - Danesh Mistry

2. Hawkins India - Prajesh Maroo

3. NSE India (Unlisted) - Pritesh Vora

4. Cantabil Retail - Anshul Saigal

5. JM Financial - Jatin khemani

6. HIL Limited - Jiten Parmar

7. Greaves Cotton - Tushar Bohra

8. Sunteck Realty - Rushmik Oza

9. KRN Heat Exchanger - Abhisar Jain

10. Shankara Building Products - Abhinav & Raghav Aggarwal

11. Sai Silks Kalamandir - Ashwini Agrawal

12. Welspun Corp - Rakesh Laroia

13. Arvind Smartspaces - Ishmohit Arora

14. India Shelter Finance - Darshan Deora

15. E2E Networks - Sivaramakrishnan R

16. SAREGAMA INDIA - Aashish Upglanawar

17. MOIL - Digant Haria

18. Atlanta Limited - Ankit Kanodia

19. PG Electroplast - Vivek Mashrani

20. HBL Power and Atul Limited - Abhishek Basumallick

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Vivek Mashrani
Techno Funda Research

PG Electroplast
CMP 628, MCap 16450 Crs

Ac, Washing Mchines, LED, Cowrs

Machine Framework
M - Mega Trend
A - Price Action
C - Competitive Edge
H - High RoCE
I - Inv in Co
N - New Products
E - Execution

Raised 500 Cr earlier with good names in QIP
Again raising 1500 Cr in QIP
2nd largest RAC- Focusing on Split AC
In 3 Years- 3-4x Capacity

Why PGEL
- Evonomy of Scale
- ⁠cross selling
- ⁠70% Backward integration
- ⁠ebitda margin - higher than peers
- ⁠asset t/o RoCe increasing
JV with Jaina Group - 50-50
Access to Google ODM License
IT hardware PLU scheme - Cherry on cake

Walk the talk delivered higher growth in last 2 years

Now FY 25 guidance increased from 54% to 70% YOY

Anti Thesis
Competitive
Climate
Regulatory
Tech changes

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Digant Haria
Greenedge Wealth

MOIL
CMP: 297, MCap: 6038Cr


Manganese - additive into steel mfg.
Steel demand is huge, capex is huge - manganese is automatic getting demand

3 states - orisa, Karnataka, MH

Once demand is up- import will further increase, currently only serving 40% in India.

MOIL 53% market share in India.
Sandur 15% Tata Steel - Captive

2010 to 2024
Price of manganese- 6.5 a kg to 11 rs a kg

Domestic demand of India is superb
Price of mangnese slightly went below 9 which is a long term average

MOIL made 2-3 rs per kg.

2008-23 stagnant
2024 30% growth
2025 guidance 14% growth

Stated vision for FY30
12% CAGR - 35L Ton

Ministry of Steel calls them in each 15 days to review.

Improved Tech, Manpower productivity

Production guidance from existing mines revised from 20L to 25L

34% employee cost - reduction can further increase the margins
Global average 18%

No of employee reducing and production is increasing

Emd - used in lithium ion battery, currently only player in India currently 15% market share

Rest imported

With volume guidance, profit for fy27 550-800Cr

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Darshan Deora
Indvest Group

India Shelter
CMP: 644, MCap: 6914Crs

Affordable housing loan- 5 to 25L
100% secured portfolio
52% LTV

73% self employed 27% salaried

Chairman- Ex-Gruh Finance
CEO - Ex-Chola, entire team ex-Chola
AUM: 48% CAGR in 10 years
Pat : 68% CAGR

Planning IRR: 25% in 3 years
Massive operating leverage

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Rakesh Loria
Oldpine Investors

Welspun Corp
CMP: 680, MCap: 17,800Cr



India
DI Pipes - Oil & gas, Jal Jeevan
Sintex - Acquired
ABG shipyard building - 750 Cr price(recd back from selling scrap)

2022- Huge Capex done
Bought companies at throwaway valuation
Sintex turnaround

US - oil and Gas grow by 50%, this company will get benefit
Plant is fully booked for 2 years

10000Cr order from Saudi Aramco - 2 yr order booked

Welspun TMT bar - 2x by FY27
Welspun speciality solution- double volume by FY27

More focus on Sintex
Huge distribution


Focus shifting to more export and product mix will also change
Sintex sales will 2x by FY27
Dependency on US will decrease

Present in almost all products compared to peers

Sintex - Joker in the Bag - 11% market share
Plan to increase this to 12-15% in 18 Months

Foraying into Plastic Pipes
Debt is at comfortable
Margins - Sustainable

Читать полностью…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

Agrawal Brothers
Fluid AI

Shankara Building Produxts
CMP: 652, MCap: 4052 Crs


90 stores in South
Steel Tubes & Pipe - 60%
Steel Flats -29%

7 year transition from commodity business to more value added.
Focus on non-steel - Ceramic, PVC

10% business growing at 30> CAGR
6% EBITDA vs 3% ebitda of steel business

Private label ceramic side
Modular kitchen focus, brand , quartz sink

Decreased store, avg ticket size increasing and change in product mix

Focusing on Geographical expansion - Currently 86% in south
Product mix change
Digital Retail in home product

Demerger of Marketplace and mfg business

74 Cr PAt of marketplace which is higher roe and higher pat business

30x PE FY24 - Marketplace - 2200Cr

Mfg business 0.75 - 300 Cr valuation

Risk - 37% business of apl Apollo
SG Mart is competitors
Relation with APL Apollo key monitor able
Stake of APL in this company - 6%

Читать полностью…
Subscribe to a channel