Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

29 May 2025 09:26

NMDC: GUIDANCE -

CO IS TARGETING 55.4 MILLION TONS OF EC CAPACITY, WHICH IS THE MAXIMUM EC CAPACITY FOR PRODUCTION AND SALES CO EXPECTS TO SPEND AROUND INR4,000 CRORES IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES THIS YEAR, WITH INR40,000 CRORES OF WORKS ALREADY SANCTIONED BY THE BOARD, INCLUDING INR8,600 CRORES UNDER EXECUTION AND INR20,000 CRORES IN THE PROCESS OF BEING PACKAGED AND TENDERED. - CONCALL UPDATE

NMDC: GUIDANCE - CO EXPECTS TO COMFORTABLY CROSS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER OF 50 MILLION TONS THIS YEAR CO IS SETTING THE FOUNDATIONS FOR ITS ENTIRE GROWTH PLAN OF 100 MILLION TONS, WITH SANCTIONS ALREADY IN PROCESS AND EXECUTION EXPECTED TO KICK-START THIS YEAR. - CONCALL UPDATE

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

29 May 2025 07:27

*WEAK GUIDANCE FROM NATCO PHARMA*

COMPANY SAYS

IN FY26 - TOPLINE TO FALL 20%

PROFITS TO FALL BY 30%

“THE COMPANY ESTIMATES A POSSIBLE DIP IN REVENUE BY 20% AND PROFITS BY 30% DUE TO GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES & PRICING PRESSURE IN ITS CORE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO IN THE US AND INCREASED R&D EXPENSES”

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:12

For now, the risk of actual default remains extremely low, but the trend is unmistakably negative and accelerating.

The CDS market is essentially pricing in a future where America’s fiscal trajectory becomes unsustainable without dramatic policy changes.

With mandatory spending programs continuing to grow as the population ages, and political gridlock preventing meaningful reform, investors are beginning to hedge against scenarios that were once considered unthinkable.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:12

Rating agencies have specifically cited political gridlock as a critical factor in recent credit downgrades.

The 2024-2025 legislative session witnessed a 19-day government shutdown, three separate debt ceiling negotiations that approached default deadlines, and repeated failures to implement comprehensive fiscal reforms.

This political paralysis stands in stark contrast to other AAA-rated nations that have demonstrated greater capacity to address fiscal challenges through structural reforms.

The inability to govern effectively amplifies concerns about America’s long-term creditworthiness, regardless of its current ability to service debt obligations.

But here’s where it gets more complex - CDS spreads don’t just reflect default risk.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:11

The immediate catalyst was the “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2, 2025, which imposed sweeping tariffs on most imported goods effective April 5.

Markets reacted poorly to these broad trade restrictions, fearing economic disruption, potential retaliation from trading partners, and increased uncertainty in global trade relations.

The timing is telling - CDS spreads showed a marked acceleration in their upward trend immediately following the tariff announcement.

But the tariffs are just the surface issue - deeper structural problems are driving this trend.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:10

BREAKING: While you slept, the price of credit default swaps on U.S. Government Debt has quietly risen to one of the highest levels since 2008.

This isn’t just market noise - it’s a warning signal about America’s fiscal health. Here’s what’s happening and why it matters

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 08:27

SP Apparels Management says Saw Some Challenges In Core Biz As Customers Pushed Orders To Next Quarters - CNBCTV 18

Some Shipments Have Happened In March, Will Reflect In Next Qtr

Offshore Capacity Will Rise By 40-45% By End Of March 2026

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 11:04

ACE FY26 GUIDANCE

At the current juncture, expect 14-15% revenue growth

See a subdued start due to ongoing geopolitical issues, tariff-related conflicts

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 07:52

RATEGAIN FY26 GUIDANCE

MARGINS AT 15-17 % V 21.5 % IN FY25

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 07:30

KEC International says

FY26 Guidance
👉 Revenue +15%
👉 Margins around 8%-8.5%
👉 Working capital days to improve to 110 days

Payments for water orders were a bit delayed, but have now started receiving payments

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 06:33

ZYDUS GUIDANCE INCREASE

ZYDUS LIFE: CO SAYS COMPANY IS TARGETING A DOUBLE-DIGIT REVENUE GROWTH IN FY26, LED BY INDIA AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 05:46

GLENMARK PHARMA

GUIDANCE - CO PROVIDED GUIDANCE FOR FY26, INCLUDING REVENUE GROWTH OF 10% TO 12%, EBITDA MARGIN OF 19% TO 20%, AND CASH GENERATION OF INR300 CRORES TO INR400 CRORES

GUIDANCE FOR EBITDA IS AROUND 19%. - CONCALL UPDATE

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 11:54

Rainbow Healthcare FY26 GUIDANCE

Expect late teens-20% revenue growth in FY26

Would like to target 25-27% pre-IND AS margins

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 10:55

UPDATER SERVICES FY26 GUIDANCE

Will Do 15% Revenue Growth & 17-18% PAT Growth For FY26

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 08:42

JSW Steel says

Guides for a better operational performance as
💪 Steel prices
😎 Coking coal costs
👍 Volumes

Wrt Bhushan Power & Steel
👉 Pursuing all legal remedies
👉 Believe JSW Steel can participate if the asset comes up for re-bidding

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

29 May 2025 07:36

NMDC Valuation Update – Nuvama BUY Call

🔹CMP: ₹178 | Rating: BUY
🔹Target Price: ₹185 (9x FY27E EPS)
🔹Valuation basis: Maintains FY26/27E EBITDA outlook;

⬆️ Higher iron ore prices (+₹440/t in May) and volumes (+10% YoY) to aid Q1FY26E EBITDA

- Rising receivables from NMDC Steel and RINL a concern, but expected to normalize by end-FY26.

- Investor Compass view: “Capex largely funded via internal accruals. Volume recovery + pricing tailwinds = re-rating potential.”

No buy/sell reco

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:13

While the U.S. retains significant advantages - including control over the world’s reserve currency and the deepest capital markets globally - the rising cost of default protection reflects growing recognition that these advantages may not be permanent.

The message from the CDS market is clear: America’s fiscal house needs urgent attention before market confidence erodes further.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:12

Unlike corporate bonds, U.S. government CDS have unique characteristics that make them part credit instrument, part interest rate derivative.

When Treasury prices fall due to rising yields, the “cheapest to deliver” mechanism in CDS contracts can artificially inflate spreads even without increased default risk.

However, analysis shows that the 2025 spike in CDS spreads is primarily driven by genuine credit concerns rather than technical factors.

The market-implied probability of default has risen to approximately 0.86% based on current CDS levels - a significant increase that reflects real deterioration in fiscal confidence.

The implications extend far beyond financial markets…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:11

The fundamental driver is America’s deteriorating fiscal position.

The U.S. national debt surpassed $36.5 trillion in early 2025, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to approximately 124% - well above levels historically considered sustainable.

Interest payments on existing debt consumed 14.8% of federal revenue in 2024, severely limiting fiscal flexibility. Meanwhile, structural budget deficits have averaged 6.2% of GDP since 2020, more than double what’s considered sustainable for long-term fiscal health.

The situation becomes even more concerning when you consider the political dysfunction that has paralyzed meaningful reform efforts…

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 17:11

Credit default swaps are essentially insurance policies against government default.

When you see CDS spreads rising, it means investors are willing to pay more to protect themselves against the possibility that the U.S. might not be able to pay its debts.

The numbers are striking. It now costs about $51,330 annually to insure $10 million of U.S. government debt against default - up from roughly $29,000 in late 2024.

But what’s driving this sudden spike in perceived risk?

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 09:47

LIC Management says Many Pdts Had To Be Re-Designed & Re-Filed Which Impacted FY25 APE Growth - CNBCTV 18

Sold High-single-premium Policies In FY25 Which Negatively Impacted APE Growth

Expect Double-digit Growth In Weighted Risk Premium & APE In FY26

Focus Will Be On Weighted Risk Premium & APE In FY26

FY25 APE Growth Flat Because Of Product Regulation Changes

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

28 May 2025 08:13

HIND COPPER FY26 GUIDANCE

Volume +15%
Margins at 40%+
Capex at Rs.350cr

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 09:09

Afcons Infra Management Says Rev Saw A Decline Due To Geopolitical Situation In Bangladesh, Work Was Halted - CNBCTV 18

This Is Second Year In Which Co Has Missed Its Guidance

Guiding For ₹30,000-32,000 Cr Orderbook For FY26

Lowest Bidder In Tenders Worth ₹10,600 Cr & Fresh Orderbook At ₹20,000-25,000 Cr

Expect To Get West Asia Order By Q4FY26

Afcons Infra Management says Will Hear On The Dubai Project By Q3-Q4FY26

Revenue Growth Will Be In The Range Of 20-25% For FY26

Afcons Infra Management says Bidding For A Dubai Municipality Project Worth $5 Bn

Co's Share In Dubai JV Is At 47%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 07:41

JYOTI CNC GUIDANCE

■ Revenue +35-40%
■ Margins around 25-27%
■ Working Capital improves to 160-170 days

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 07:27

Just comparing three companies in Power Transmission and Distribution

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 May 2025 05:57

Astra Microwave Q4FY25 Concall Highlights

1️⃣ Core Strengths
🔹 Strong in Antenna design, in-house test ranges
🔹 MMICs for Virupaksha & more, EU foundry as backup

2️⃣ FY26 Outlook
🔹 Revenue growth target: ~20%
🔹 EBITDA margin: ₹350 Cr revenue)

3️⃣ Capex Plans
🔹 FY26 Capex: ₹800–900 Cr
🔹 Long-term:
- Kalinganagar: ₹840–900 Cr
- Ethanol plant: ₹150 Cr
- Underground mines: ₹1,000 Cr (5–6Y)

4️⃣ Massive Opportunity
🔹 TAM of ₹20,000–25,000 Cr over 4–5 years

Transformation underway. Astra is building for scale.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 13:01

Low P/E doesn’t mean valuations are cheap

Very few people understand this, low P/E becomes a value trap if there is no growth

Always compare in relation to growth

Deal 1: Company growing ~5%, trading ~15 P/E
(PEG ~3)

Deal 2: Company growing ~20%, trading ~30 P/E
(PEG ~1.5)

Deal 3: Company growing ~40%, trading ~50 P/E
(PEG ~1.25)

I will always go with Deal 3
Market pays a premium for high growth

PEG ratio is one of the best metrics
(PE / Growth)

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 11:09

GOPAL SNACKS FY26 GUIDANCE

Target 30-35% Growth In Focus States' Revenue

EBITDA Should Grow By About 25% In FY26

Palm Oil Prices Have Started To Cool Off, Should Benefit From Lower Prices In Q1

GOPAL SNACKS Management Says Haldirams Deal Would Add An Impetus To The Ethnic Snacks Market

In FY26, Revenue From ₹5/pack Segment Should Come Down To 60-62% From 65%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 09:21

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals says

FY26 Guidance
🎯 Topline growth of 10-12%
🎯 EBITDA margins at 19%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 May 2025 08:26

Indigo Paints says

🎨 Expect demand recovery from Q2FY26
🎨 Aspire for 5% market share in 3 years vs 3% now