Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 10:52

Kalpataru Projects International says

FY26 Guidance
🎯 Revenue +20%
🎯 Order inflows at Rs.28000-30000 cr
🎯 PBT Margins will improve by 50-100 bps
🎯 Net Working capital cycle will remain sub 100 days

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 08:08

There is a case of risk-on trade in India and global markets

Market will continue to react to RBI policy action over next few days

Digitisation, Infrastructure among key themes that will India structural story

Can look at betting on SMIDs now

Have reduced healthcare a bit on back of tariff uncertainty; underweight IT

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 05:16

EMS Players revenue guidance

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 04:59

🔖Rare Earth Elements (REE) in India

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) refer to 17 critical metals used in high-tech industries.

They are essential for manufacturing electric vehicle (EV) motors, wind turbines, advanced sensors, smartphones, and military equipment.

Among the most important REEs are neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium - especially used in permanent magnets for EVs and hybrids.

🔖Types of REE

Magnetic REE (crucial for green technologies)

Prmanent magnets (Neodymium, Praseodymium, Dysprosium, and Terbium)

🔖China dominance

China accounts for more than 70% of global REE mining

China handles more than 90% of global REE processing and refining, a complex and hazardous process requiring advanced technology and significant infrastructure.

In April 2025, China imposed strict export licensing requirements on several rare earth elements.

While not a full export ban, this move significantly delays and restricts global access to critical REE supplies, effectively tightening its grip on the global supply chain.

🔖India’s REE

India reportedly holds the 5th largest REE resources globally.

However, Indian REE deposits are Low-grade (lean in concentration). Radioactive (often tied with thorium, making extraction complex and costly).

Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE) like Dysprosium and Terbium are not available in extractable quantities.

Only Neodymium and Praseodymium are extractable (up to 99.9% purity) and Present in very low concentrations (0.0011% - 0.012%) in BSM (Beach Sand Minerals) ores.

India is dominated by Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE).

🔖REE Value Chain Status in India

➡️Existing capabilities

Mining, beneficiation, oxide refining, and metal extraction.

➡️Missing capabilities

Industrial-scale production of REE-based alloys, magnets, and final components (e.g., motors).

Intermediate industry not developed due to Lack of technology access.

🔖Import Dependency

India heavily imports REEs due to limited domestic processing

Major suppliers includes China (largest), Japan, Russia, USA, Korea.

Imports have risen from 1,848 tonnes (2019–20) to 2,270 tonnes (2023–24).

🔖Strategic Policy Initiatives

National Critical Mineral Mission launched to secure supply chains.

Boosts domestic exploration and international sourcing.

➡️GSI's Exploration (2021–2025)

Total 195 critical mineral projects in India (2024–25).

More than 35 projects in Rajasthan, including for Neodymium, Dysprosium, and other REE/RM.

Department of Atomic Energy discovered 111,845 tonnes of in-situ REO in Rajasthan (Balotra).

#REE

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 04:10

Hitachi Energy India (Power India) didn’t rerate. It outgrew its valuation.

- Margins Expanded. EPS Doubled. HVDC optionality exploded.
- Some stocks never look cheap because they’re busy building the future.

Here’s why conviction matters ⤵️

1️⃣ Pricey? Yes. But Built for Scale
🔹CMP: ₹18,203
🔹P/E: 211x (based on FY25 EPS of ₹86.1)
🔹FY27E EPS: ₹276.9 → Forward P/E: ~66x (based on various agencies estimate)
➡️ Great businesses “earn” their way into value.

🗣️ Mr. N Venu, MD:
“We are not looking for short-term gains. Our strategy is growing continuously and sustainably.”

2️⃣ Order Book Explosion = Visibility
🔹FY25 Order Inflow: ₹18,174 Cr (↑228% YoY)
🔹Order Backlog (Mar'25): ₹19,246 Cr (↑166% YoY)
🔹Book-to-Bill Ratio: ~3x
🔹HVDC Orders: 1 mega order booked in FY25, another in Apr'25 (Q1FY26)

🗣️ “Our highest-ever order backlog gives us strong multi-quarter revenue visibility.”

3️⃣ Margins in Escape Velocity
🔹FY24 EBITDA Margin: 6.7%
🔹FY25 EBITDA Margin: 8.8% (↑210 bps YoY)
🔹Q4FY25 Margin: 12.6% (↑190 bps YoY)
➡️ Structural margin lift from localization, mix improvement & operating leverage

🗣️ “We expect to maintain double-digit margins going forward; it's a sustainable path.”

4️⃣ EPS Breakout – Just the Start
🔹 FY24 EPS: ₹38.6
🔹 FY25 EPS: ₹86.1 (+123%)
🔹 FY27E EPS: ₹277
➡️ This is how you earn into valuation.

🗣️ “Our profitability has more than doubled due to operating leverage and strategic focus.”

5️⃣ Capex Leadership = Future Moat
🔹₹2,521 Cr QIP completed in FY25
🔹₹2,000 Cr capex planned over FY26–30
🔹Target execution scale: ₹7,500 Cr+ per year from FY26 onwards
➡️ Higher vs peers like Siemens & CG Power

🗣️ “We are expanding our factories significantly... valves, transformers, power quality... to handle rising demand.”

6️⃣ HVDC – The Billion-Dollar Flywheel
🔹₹3.4 lakh Cr grid capex needs HVDC backbone
🔹Only Indian OEM with full VSC HVDC tech
🔹1 HVDC project executing, 2 mega orders booked
🔹Khavda bipole next – massive scale, long-cycle
➡️ HVDC is the crown jewel of India’s grid transition and Hitachi owns the throne.

🗣️ “We invented HVDC, and now we’re executing it in India using 100% local capability.”

7️⃣ Services + Exports = Silent Compounding
🔹37% of FY25 orders from exports (ex-HVDC)
🔹Services: 7.4% of orders - high-margin, sticky
➡️ Target: ₹2,000 Cr service order book from SCADA, AMC, digital SLAs

🗣️ “Our service offerings, AMC, SCADA upgrades, digital SLAs, are scaling rapidly with strong customer pull.”

8️⃣ Tailwinds Fueling Every Segment
🔹900 GW renewable evacuation plan
🔹₹26,550 Cr FY26 Budget for power infrastructure
🔹Bullet train, rail electrification, data centers, SCADA upgrades
➡️ From grid to rail to renewables – Hitachi is wired into every megatrend.

🗣️ “India is the growth engine and we’re central to the grid modernization & energy transition story.”

9️⃣ Capital-Efficient Growth Flywheel
🔹FY25 PAT: ₹384 Cr (↑134% YoY)
🔹ROE: 13.8% (FY25) → 22.3% by FY27E (ICICI Sec est.)
🔹ROCE: 14.6% (FY25) → *24.1% by FY27E
🔹Debt-free | ₹3,800 Cr+ cash (as per concall + QIP proceeds)
➡️ High return ratios, clean balance sheet, reinvestible cash - a true compounding engine.

🗣️ “We are a debt-free company with disciplined capital deployment and strategic capex priorities.”

🔟 Investor’s Compass View – P/E Backed by Execution
🔹You’re not buying past EPS, you're backing an infra flywheel
🔹Underwriting India's HVDC backbone, digital grid scaling, and sticky services
🔹Margins are rising. Cash is compounding. Visibility is built-in.

🗣️ “The next few years are about execution, localization, and scaling our service and digital footprint. India is just getting started.”


Source https://x.com/selvaprathee/status/1931801220970402040?t=ZoV-TUcgWqV6JpJZ9Uu2Zw&s=19

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

08 Jun 2025 14:15

Kernex-KEC JV: India’s Next Big Rail Safety Duo ?

🔹New Order Win: ₹182.81 Cr from Western Railway - Palanpur-Gandhidham (June 2025)
- Kernex stake: 70% in JV

🔹This is their 2nd JV project
✅ Earlier win: ₹85.14 Cr from North Central Railway - Bhuteshwar-Dholpur (April 2025)
✅ Repeat Success - Confirms credibility & trust in execution

🗣️ KEC Q4 concall “Executed our first TCAS JV project under Kavach across 270 route km”

Kernex Order Book: ₹2,124 Cr
  • ₹1,735 Cr - Standalone
  • ₹389 Cr - Via JVs
   🔹₹179 Cr – South Eastern Railway (JV with MRT Signals Ltd)
   🔹₹210 Cr – NCR & WR (JV with KEC International)

🔹OEM + EPC Combo = Scale Multiplier
  • Kernex: RDSO-certified TCAS supplier with growing portfolio
  • KEC: Proven EPC executor with pan-India railway footprint

- With KEC’s execution muscle & Kernex’s OEM status, this JV looks 🔥
- India plans ₹30,000 Cr+ Kavach rollout across 35,000 km - If This JV continues it is well positioned to ride the full wave

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

07 Jun 2025 10:45

https://youtu.be/s4BblKvcVZI

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

06 Jun 2025 06:37

KAYNES Tech Management says Promoter Unlikely To Sell More Stake In Company - CNBCTV 18

Profitability Will Expand In The Next 2-3 Years

Kaynes Tech Management says We Might Do Better Than Topline Guidance Of ₹4,525 Cr For FY26

Export Will Increase From 15-20% Current Level To 25%+ FY27 Mainly Led By US Market

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

06 Jun 2025 06:18

SENCO GOLD Management says Silver Category Growing At A Very Good Rate - NDTV PROFIT

Expect About ₹7,300 Cr Revenue In FY26

Silver Growing In Terms Of Volume As Well As Value

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

06 Jun 2025 03:39

Good morning friends

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

04 Jun 2025 13:49

Garware Technical Fibres says

👍 Plan to grow Net profit by 15% CAGR & topline will grow at similar clip

Focused on improving ratios
🎯 Margins by 50-100 bps pa
🎯 ROCE from 25% towards 30%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

04 Jun 2025 13:36

MAN IND Management Says We Are Done With The Capex And Fund Raising As Of Now - NDTV PROFIT

Majority Of The Capex Will Be Spent In Saudi Arabia

Expect To Start Trials In Saudi Arabia By December 2025

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

04 Jun 2025 10:55

Transrail vs Skipper – Battle for the Transmission Crown 👑

- Two transmission titans. One race to dominate India’s ₹9.15 lakh Cr T&D capex.
- Who’s better positioned? Let’s compare ⬇️

1️⃣ Order Book Strength

Transrail ➡️ ₹14,551 Cr (YoY ↑ 44%)
 - 92% in Power T&D
 - 55% International
 - L1 + OB: ₹15,915 Cr
Skipper ➡️ ₹7,458 Cr (YoY ↑ 20%)
 - 71% T&D Domestic
 - 12% Export
 - Highest ever but domestic-heavy

📌 Edge: Transrail
Deeper international footprint, diversified infra verticals

2️⃣ Revenue & Profit Growth (FY25)

Transrail ➡️ ₹5,308 Cr (YoY ↑ 30%)
 - EBITDA Margin: 12.7% (↑103 bps)
 - PAT: ₹327 Cr (↑40%)
 - ROCE: 24.7% | Net D/E: 0.34x
Skipper ➡️ ₹4,624 Cr (YoY ↑ 41%)
 - EBITDA Margin: 9.8% (↑4 bps)
 - PAT: ₹149 Cr (↑83%)
 - ROCE: 21.7% | Net D/E: 0.59x

📌 Edge: Split
Profitability, margins, capital efficiency ➡️ Transrail
Growth acceleration ➡️ Skipper

3️⃣ Order Inflow (FY25)

Transrail ➡️ ₹9,680 Cr (YoY ↑ 120%)
Skipper ➡️ ₹5,335 Cr (YoY ↑ 24%)

📌 Edge: Transrail
More aggressive bid wins + solar, civil, bullet train orders

4️⃣ Execution Geography

Transrail ➡️ 59 countries
 - Strong Africa + Asia presence
 - 55% of order book international
Skipper ➡️ Primarily India
 - US pole exports started, early innings
 - 71% domestic, ~12% export

📌 Edge: Transrail
Deeper global presence, EPC maturity across geographies.

5️⃣ Capacity & Capex Strategy

Transrail ➡️
 - Tower: 84K MT → expanding to 1.96L MT (2.3x)
 - Conductor: 24K KM → 49.5K KM (2x)
 - Capex funded via IPO
 - FY26-end target for ramp
Skipper ➡️
 - T&D: 252K MT (excl. 55K MT polymer)
 - ₹238 Cr FY25 capex (₹123 Cr T&D, ₹114 Cr polymer)
 - 75K MT plant added in Mar’25
 - ₹800 Cr capex pipeline over 3 years

📌 Edge: Split
Transrail = Lean, focused, margin-led expansion
Skipper = Scale-heavy, wide bet across T&D + polymer

6️⃣ FY26 Guidance

Transrail ➡️
 - Revenue growth: 23-25%
 - EBITDA Margin: 12-12.25%
 - Execution visibility: 24 months
 - Bidding focus: India + Africa (no US/EU EPC)
Skipper ➡️
 - Revenue growth: 20-25%
 - Polymer growth: 25-30%
 - 75K MT plant to hit 85% utilisation by Q3
 - Finance cost target: 4%
📌 Edge: Transrail
Sharper guidance, margin consistency, bidding discipline

7️⃣ Valuation & Efficiency

Transrail ➡️
 - EPS: ₹24.3 | P/E: 27.5x
 - PEG: 1.03
 - ROCE: 24.7% | D/E: 0.34x
Skipper ➡️
 - EPS: ₹12.9 | P/E: 37.9x
 - PEG: 1.28
 - ROCE: 21.7% | D/E: 0.59x

📌 Edge: Transrail
Better priced for compounding , lower PEG, higher ROCE

🎯 Investors Compass View
- Skipper is the scale-hunter large capacity, polymer optionality, export ambitions.
- But execution risk is real, and margin growth is muted.
- Transrail is the stealth compounder high ROCE, clean execution, global EPC wins, and capital-light scaling.

📌 In infra, size gets attention. ROCE gets returns.

✅ For a portfolio that values capital efficiency and long-term compounding - Transrail wins.

Disc : I have both in my long term portfolio . But given more allocation to Transrail
- No Buy/Sell recommendation

Source: Investors Compass via X

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

03 Jun 2025 07:53

Welspun Corp says

🎯 Confident of achieving EBITDA guidance at Rs.2200cr
🎯 Seeing solid visibilty in 🇺🇸 operations, hence setting up capacity
👉 If crude crashes to 40$ then it's a concern

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

03 Jun 2025 05:20

Key Growth Drivers

# Water Infrastructure

a) Interlinking of rivers
b) Urban water projects

# Oil & Gas

a) PSU Pipeline Projects

# Exports

a) Offshore service demand of LSAW Pipes

# City Gas Distribution

a) PNGRB pushing 10,805 km additional network

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 08:10

Hindustan Zinc says

On Silver
🥈 Demand out stripping supply, deficit will persist till 2030
🥈 Prices move to 41-42 $/ounce by early 2027
🥈 Could rework silver volume guidance by July 2025

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 05:18

Mining & Rare Earth Processing!📊

1. IREL (India) Ltd
2. GMDC
3. Hindustan Zinc
4. Vedanta Ltd
5. MOIL
6. NMDC Ltd

Manufacturing & Magnet Production!

1. Hindalco Industries
2. Amber Enterprises India
3. Dixon Technologies

Automotive & EV Component Manufacturers!

1. Tata Motors Ltd
2. Mahindra & Mahindra
3. Bajaj Auto
4. Hero MotoCorp
5. TVS Motor Company
6. Sona BLW Precision Forgings
7. Sundram Fasteners
8. Minda Industries

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 05:02

⭐ 10 COMPANIES WITH 50%+ REVENUE GUIDANCE (as taken from conference calls)

🌞Oriana Power
🚀Guidance: 128% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Guidance: ₹2,000 – ₹2,500 Cr

📟Genus Power
🚀Guidance: 64% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Guidance: ₹4,000 Cr

💎Sky Gold & Diamonds
🚀Guidance: 52% growth
💰FY26 Revenue: ₹5,400 Cr

🪖Apollo Micro Systems
🚀Guidance: 45% – 50% (Standalone)
💰FY26 Revenue: ₹1,100 Cr (Consolidated)

🏭Vilas Transcore
🚀Guidance: 60% – 70% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Growth: ₹600 Cr

⚡️Kay Cee Energy
🚀Guidance: 88% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Guidance: ₹275 – ₹300 Cr

🏭Kilburn Engineering
🚀Guidance: 59% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Guidance: ₹650 – ₹700 Cr

🌞Bondada Engineering
🚀Guidance: 65% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Guidance: ₹2,600 Cr

🕹️Kaynes Technology
🚀Guidance: 60% growth
💰FY26 Revenue Guidance: ₹4,355 Cr

🌞KPI Green Energy
🚀Guidance: 60% – 70% growth

Note: there were more as well, but these show the most promise

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

09 Jun 2025 04:20

INVESTING CHECKLIST


Source :
https://x.com/EquityInsightss/status/1931706235063070949?t=mKdHdagwn8WqYe1FShgvWg&s=19

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

08 Jun 2025 14:20

WhatsApp fwd


Just imagine patience 🙏

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

08 Jun 2025 03:59

Good morning Friends

@Qoutes90

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

06 Jun 2025 06:39

Kaynes Tech - Confident Commentary from Management

🔹 Promoter unlikely to sell more stake – focus on long-term growth
🔹 Profitability to expand over next 2-3 years
🔹 FY26 Topline guidance: ₹4,525 Cr – "We might do better"
🔹 Exports to rise to 25%+ by FY27, driven by US market

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

06 Jun 2025 06:28

KAYNES Tech Management says Capex Of ₹800 Cr For Geography Expansion & ₹400 Cr For Deepening Tech Space - CNBCTV 18

Capex Of ₹800 Cr Is For Inorganic Growth

Will Hear About Acquisition In A Couple Of Months

US Is The Largest Market For Co's Electronic Products

Promoter Sold Stake To Fund Kaynes Centre In Mysore

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

06 Jun 2025 06:18

SENCO GOLD , CEO Says Gold Has Been On An Upward Trend For A While - NDTV PROFIT

FY26 Growth To Be Between 18-20%

Will Focus On Volume Growth

Saw Strong Diamond Growth In Q4 FY25

Diamond Prices Have Reached To Their Bottom

Plan To Add 20 More Stores In FY26

Diamond Prices Will Move Upwards Once Tariff Uncertainty Subsides

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

05 Jun 2025 15:05

BEL Bags ₹2,323 Cr Orders from MDL & GRSE

🔹Clients: MDL & GRSE
🔹Order Value: ₹2,323 Cr (Excl. Taxes)
🔹Purpose: Supply of base & depot spares
🔹Application: Missile systems on Indian Naval ships
🔹Impact: Ensures uninterrupted operation of mission-critical onboard equipment

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

04 Jun 2025 13:36

MAN IND Management Says Expect ₹2,000 Cr Incremental Revenue In FY27 From Saudi Arabia - NDTV PROFIT

Looking At Consolidated Top Line Of ₹8,000-9,000 Cr In India & Saudi Arabia

Will Use 60% Of Fund Raise For Capex And 40% For Working Capital Needs

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

04 Jun 2025 10:57

Techno Electric wins RailTel LOI for 10 MW Data Centre

🔹Partnered as Managed Service DC Partner via open tender
🔹Project under Techno Digital arm
🔹Location: RailTel land, Noida
🔹Mode: Revenue share model
🔹Phased execution: 2 x 5MW | Timeline: 1.5-3 yrs
🔹Contract period: 30 yrs
🔹Earnings: % based, to be finalised

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

03 Jun 2025 07:53

WELSPUN CORP Management says Confident of achieving EBITDA guidance at Rs.2200cr

Seeing solid visibilty in operations, hence setting up capacity

If crude crashes to 40$ then it's a concern

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

03 Jun 2025 06:25

Blue Star to CNBC-TV18

Grew only 5% in April, May was also weak, this has been a bad summer

Expect rest of the year to make up for weak Q1

Expect 10-15% topline growth for RAC biz

Expect double-digit topline growth in FY26 despite weak summer season

Will be able to deliver 8-8.5% margin in the Unitary Cooling Products biz in FY26

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

03 Jun 2025 05:20

The Steel Pipes & Tubes segment accounts for a 9- 10% share in the overall steel consumption basket

# ERW Pipes hold a dominant share of ~58–63% in volume terms but are lower in per-unit value

# SAW, DI & SS Pipes collectively contribute the remaining 37–42%