Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jun 2025 07:51

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Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 09:09

Power sector stocks

✅1st Priority : Transformer and Transformer Proxy stocks
(Direct + Proxy)
Ex: TARIL, Shilchar, Voltamp, Yash High Voltage, Vikas, Jay Bee etc

✅2nd Priority: Other Power Equipment related stocks
Ex: Quality Power, TD Power, HP electric etc

✅3rd Priority : Transmission EPC stocks
Ex: Transrail, Skipper etc.

Here is why❓

1. Transformers are core to every transmission upgrade ,can't build grids without them.

2. High operating leverage : volume uptick boosts profits sharply.

3. Proxy plays (copper/CRGO steel) also ride the same growth wave.

4. Power equipment stocks like insulators and switchgear come next ,essential but less critical.

5. EPC players face delays, payment issues, and tight margins.

7. Faster execution cycle in transformers vs EPC :quicker cash flows and re-rating.

(Some exceptions may be there.)

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 06:24

GUIDANCE for FY26

Margin Guidance:
Management expects to maintain PBT margin profile “around 18%” for FY26 as well, based on current order book mix.

Revenue growth target: ~20%

Bottom-line (PAT) margin targeted at ~18%

Order book target: INR 1,400 crore (INR 1,000+ crore domestic, INR 300+ crore exports)

Capex Plans:
INR 45 crore for test equipment, another INR 45 crore for production space expansion; to be funded via internal accruals and term loans.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 04:35

Many stock available at attractive level if market corrects

We will see which stock posted strong numbers and posted good guidance

Stay tuned for more updates

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

12 Jun 2025 08:13

Premier Energies says

👍 Believes growth momentum will remain solid for next few years
🤔 Indian market will remain balanced or under supplied in next 5 years as demand is strong
👉 Exports remain an option

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

12 Jun 2025 06:44

Export data for different pharma companies as per B&K

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

12 Jun 2025 05:32

CEMENT SECTOR ANALYSIS

AI is getting so so good

Not only I was able to build Industry Level insights pipeline in couple of days

The output is what would take someone weeks to achieve

Below table comparing Cement Industry commentary is just a tiny fraction of our output

Source: thewrap.investkaroindia.in/concallanalysis

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:13

Conclusion:-

Lumax Auto Tech is investing in green fuel technologies,

The stock has rallied on the back of very strong guidance from the company.
While the company has guided for as far as FY31.
The market has been very optimistic.

The future of the stock return will solely depend on how the management is able to meet the guidence

Source: Aditya Shah via Twitter

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:12

Total order book: INR 1,300 crore (as of call date).
26% to materialize in FY26 (~INR 333 crore).
42% in FY27.
32% in FY28.
88% of the order book is incremental (not replacement).

Advanced plastics is the largest contributor, followed by mechatronics and structures/control systems.

BEV platforms constitute ~40% (INR 500 crore) of the order book; content per BEV vehicle is higher (INR 40-45k/vehicle for Mahindra BEVs).

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:11

So how were the Q4 results

Q4 FY25 Revenue: INR 1,133 crore (+50% YoY).
FY25 Revenue: INR 3,637 crore (+29% YoY).
Q4 FY25 EBITDA: INR 166 crore (+51% YoY), margin 14.6%.
FY25 EBITDA: INR 516 crore (+25% YoY), margin 14.2%.
PAT (pre-minority): INR 229 crore (+37% YoY).
Tax rate: 25.6%.
Capex: INR 177 crore in FY25 (including INR 30 crore for land at Kharkhoda, Haryana).
Free cash reserves: INR 322 crore as of Mar 31, 2025.
Long-term debt: INR 458 crore (D/E: 0.49x), primarily for Greenfuel acquisition.
Dividend: INR 5.50/share (275% of FV).

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:11

Future growth guidence:-

Company has guided for 20% growth(organic+inorganic)
15% growth organically

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:10

Acquisition of IAC India:-

Lumax Auto Technologies has signed an agreement to acquire the remaining 25% stake in IAC International Automotive India (IAC India) from the International Automotive Components Group (IAC Group).

IAC Group will continue to support IAC India through a technology support agreement.

The company is ramping up the business of IAC

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:10

Lumax Auto Tech is an auto ancillary that operates in
1. Lighting
2. Electronics
3. Telematics
4. Auto sensors and so on

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 03:40

Good morning friends

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

10 Jun 2025 08:06

Life Insurance Sector – Update from Nuvama
Base Effect Dampens Growth
🔹 Private Life Insurers’ Individual APE ↑7.2% YoY
🔹 LIC APE ↓6.6% YoY (Total APE ↑3.7%)
🔹 FY26 YTD Private APE market share ↑ to 68.3% (+228 bps YoY)
🔹 4Y APE CAGR: 23.7% for private players
🔹 Top Picks: HDFC Life (TP ₹850), Max Life (TP ₹1,540)

Top Performers
🔹 HDFC Life: APE ↑14.9% | Market share ↑92 bps
- P/EV: 2.6x/2.2x | BUY

🔹 Max Life: APE ↑25.8% | Market share ↑123 bps
- P/EV: 2.2x/1.9x | BUY

Decent Show
🔹 SBI Life: APE ↑4.2% | Market share ↑30 bps
- P/EV: 2.3x/2.1x | BUY

Weak Prints
🔹 ICICI Prudential Life: APE ↓7.1% | Market share ↓60 bps
🔹 Bajaj Allianz Life: APE ↑1.1%, Indiv. APE ↓13.5% | HOLD
🔹 LIC: APE ↓6.6% | Still lags private peer

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 09:47

TANFAC just became the first Indian chemical firm to make solar-grade DHF, a key material for solar energy. They’ve started with 5,000 TPA and plan to double it soon.

This should give a solid boost to their sales and profits.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 08:56

#Aeroflex Industries

Proxy to infra / ports / data centres

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 06:23

ASTRAMICROWAVE Trading at 1169

Posted good number and gave solid guidance

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

13 Jun 2025 04:34

Good morning friends

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

12 Jun 2025 06:48

Polycab’s Long-Term Playbook: Guidance, Capex & Growth Targets | Valution Outlook

Segmental Growth & Market Share (FY25):
🔹W&C: ↑20% YoY | Market share up to 26-27% (from 22–25%)
🔹FMEG: ↑29% YoY | Strong traction across fans & switchgear
🔹EPC: ↑143% YoY

W&C Guidance:
 🔹~1.5x industry growth | 11-13% EBITDA margin
 🔹>10% revenue from exports

FMEG Ambition:
 🔹1.5x–2x industry growth | 8-10% EBITDA margin

Capex Plan (FY24-30):
 🔹₹6,000-8,000 Cr total | Fully internal funded
~₹850-1,150 Cr/year
 🔹Dividend payout ~30% of PAT

Execution Levers:
 🔹Automation & digitisation at scale
 🔹Exports to 84+ countries
 🔹GTM reset done in US & Australia
 🔹RDSS-led ₹7,000 Cr EPC order book | 3-yr execution visibility

FY26-28 Outlook (Kotak)
🔹EPS: ₹160 → ₹210
🔹PAT: ₹2,415 Cr → ₹3,164 Cr
🔹Revenue: ₹27,136 Cr → ₹37,724 Cr
🔹EBITDA Margin: ~13% steady

⚠️Valuation rich: FY26E PE = 38.4x | EV/EBITDA = 25.9x

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

12 Jun 2025 05:33

KEC International is one of the irreplaceable pillars in the transmission market | Its Transmission Moat & Growth Headroom

- Transmission Moat + Multi-Year Growth Headroom = A Silent Compounder in Play.
🔹₹3.56 Lakh Cr opportunity
🔹36% TAM already captured
🔹Backward-integrated, global, margin-lifting
Here’s why KEC is just getting started ⬇️

1️⃣ The Macro Opportunity
🔹₹3.56 Lakh Cr = India's 10-year Transmission TAM
🔹~₹35,600 Cr worth of awards annually
🔹KEC already commands ~36% of annual flow
🔹Still room to grow 1.5x-2x over the next 5 years

🗣 “We are targeting ₹30,000 Cr+ of new orders in FY26, with strong T&D visibility in India and overseas.”

2️⃣ What Does KEC Do? – Deep Segment Overview
KEC is a full-spectrum infra EPC player operating across:
🔹T&D (Transmission & Distribution) - core engine
🔹Civil – water infra, industrial, semiconductors
🔹Railways & Transportation - metro, ropeways, Kavach
🔹Cables & Conductors - backward-integrated
🔹Renewables - solar, wind, hybrid EPC
🔹Oil & Gas Pipelines - early-stage global projects (Africa, LatAm)

📌 Within T&D, KEC operates across:
🔹Overhead Transmission Lines (up to 765 kV AC & ±800 kV HVDC)
🔹Substations (AIS & GIS, up to 765 kV – incl. India’s largest digital GIS at Navsari)
🔹Underground Cabling (urban infra, smart city, metro systems)
🔹Smart Grids & Digital Infra (SCADA, remote ops, automation)
🔹Cross-border Projects via SAE Towers (US, Brazil, Mexico, Africa)
🔹T&D contributes 59% of order book and 73% of FY25 order intake
🔹 Margins highest among segments – guided to 11-12% in FY26

🗣 “T&D continues to be our most significant business. We’re not only executing in India but also expanding rapidly in MENA, Brazil, Mexico. The 765 kV GIS at Navsari is a flagship example of digital substations.”

3️⃣ Transmission Engine – The Real Moat
🔹FY25 T&D Revenue: ₹12,833 Cr (↑23% YoY)
🔹FY25 Order Intake: ₹18,000 Cr
🔹FY25 T&D Margin: 10%, guided to rise to 11-12%
🔹T&D Order Book + L1: ₹24,500 Cr → Targeting ₹30,000 Cr
🔹Tower capacity: 4.68L MTPA; scalable to 6.5L MTPA
🔹 India contributed ~90% of T&D revenue in FY25
  - MENA, Brazil, Mexico gaining share

🗣 “T&D margins in India have reached ~11%, and with a higher share of large-value international projects, we expect further improvement.”
🗣 “SAE recorded order inflow of ₹2,300 Cr – driven by Brazil and Mexico, more than double YoY.”

4️⃣ Competitive Edge
🔹Preferred by PGCIL, strong bidding in HVDC, GEC
🔹Working capital cycle <10 days in India T&D
🔹Backward integrated with in-house tower, cables, conductors
🔹Global capacity ramped in Dubai, Jabalpur, Jaipur
🔹EPC + Product model enhances margin profile
🔹Moving to fewer, larger, high-margin orders

🗣 “We’ve increased our average order size from ₹200 Cr to ₹325 Cr, focusing on large, profitable EPC contracts.”
🗣 “Our working capital cycle in domestic T&D is now below 10 days, one of the best in the industry.”

5️⃣ What’s Next?
KEC is positioning for the next leg of profitable growth:
🔹Larger average order sizes, now ₹325 Cr vs ₹200 Cr earlier
🔹Prioritizing higher-margin, short-cycle EPC contracts
🔹₹400 Cr+ capex annually for infra build-out (FY26 & FY27)
🔹Expanding Renewables + Civil EPC share, without diluting T&D dominance

🗣 “We are consciously focusing on larger orders, average order size has moved up to ₹325 Cr. We will continue with ₹400-450 Cr of capex in FY26–27 to expand across T&D, cables, and civil segments.”

🧭 Investor Compass View:
- KEC isn’t just another EPC, it’s a critical builder of India’s transmission backbone.
- With scale, exports, margin lift, and backward integration, KEC is poised to compound within India’s ₹3.56 Lakh Cr transmission boom.

Source: https://x.com/selvaprathee/status/1932776700976525435

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 10:04

Shera Energy

Announced acquisition of a running copper cathode manufacturing plant in Zambia

Initial production capacity of 1,200 metric tonnes per annum in FY26, the Company plans to scale up to 5,000 metric tonnes in the coming years

This development ensures long-term access to critical raw material and reinforces our ability to deliver consistently higher margins

@Fundamental3

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:12

Valutation:-

Expensive after this 30% rally?

Currently trades at ~27x
5yr avg at 25x

Assuming 20% Revenue + PAT growth
(no margin expansion)

Trading at 22x 1yr fwd
Can the guidance play out?!

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:11

Advanced Plastics: Q4 FY25 +53% YoY; FY25 +27% YoY. Order book: INR 750 crore.

Mechatronics: Q4 FY25 +87% YoY; FY25 +80% YoY. Order book: INR 210 crore.

Structure & Control: Q4 FY25 +5% YoY; FY25 +8% YoY. Order book: INR 190 crore.

Green Energy Solutions (Greenfuel): FY25 revenue INR 110 crore (from Nov), order book INR 150 crore.

Aftermarket: Q4 FY25 +10% YoY, FY25 +5% YoY. Stronger growth expected in FY26.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:11

Strategic acquisition marks Lumax’s entry into alternate fuel components.

Greenfuel contributed INR 110 crore revenue (from end of Nov 2024 to Mar 2025).

Order book: INR 150 crore.
Full-year consolidation in FY26, with revenue guidance of INR 300-350 crore.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:10

IAC India is LATL’s largest revenue contributor (FY25 revenue: ~INR 1,200 crore, EBITDA margin: 17-17.5%).

Two new facilities were commissioned in Chakan, Pune for Mahindra BEV models (BE6, XEV 9e).

Management: “Intent to boost free cash, better leverage, which will enable Lumax Technologies to go for future inorganic steps.”

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:10

Advanced Plastics accounts for a significant portion of the business.
The company has a diversified client base with PVs forming a major part

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jun 2025 06:10

🚨Lumax Auto Technologies- Aggressive guidance?

FY25 Revenue ~3700cr
FY31E Revenue at ~11,000 cr

The company has guided for a very aggressive growth of 3x in the next 5 years

Will they achieve such an aggressive growth target?

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

10 Jun 2025 08:17

Gulf Oil Lubricants – BUY Call | Systematix Research
CMP: ₹1,240 | Target: ₹1,672
Upside: ~35%

Valuation
▪️ FY26E P/E: 14.4x | EV/EBITDA: 7.4x
▪️ RoE: 26.1% → 28.7% by FY27E
▪️ Strong dividend payout & balance sheet

Q4FY25 SA Highlights
▪️ Revenue: ₹915 Cr (▲7.3% YoY)
▪️ EBITDA: ₹125 Cr (▲8.2% YoY)
▪️ PAT: ₹91.6 Cr (▲7.2% YoY)
▪️ EBITDA Margin: 13.6%

Growth Triggers
▪️ Premiumisation strategy → better margins
▪️ B2C & aftermarket channels scaling faster
▪️ EV segment entry: fluids & battery cooling
▪️ OEM tie-ups ensure steady volumes
▪️ Strong brand recall & rural demand revival
▪️ Efficient cost controls despite crude volatility

Not a buy/sell recommendation.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

10 Jun 2025 07:54

Arul Selvan D, Cholamandalam Investment to CNBC-TV18

NIMs in Q2 & Q3 will be better, should be closer to 8% by end of the year

Still hold on to the AUM growth target of 20-25%

Margin should improve by 10-15 bps by the end of FY26

See the gold loan biz growing at 25-30% on a steady state basis 2-3 years down the line

Remain conservative despite RBI cuts & continue with our guidance of 20-25% growth