Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

02 Jul 2025 06:08

Phillip Capital sees good technical upside in madcap private banks

RBL BANK
AU BANK
Federal Bank
City Union Bank
IDFC FIRST BANK
Ujjivan Small Bank
Karur Vysya
South Indian Ban

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

02 Jul 2025 05:01

Transformers Megacycle - Deep Dive India’s High-Voltage Rerating

From ₹10 lakh/MVA units to 765kV beasts, this sector is no longer about tonnage
It’s about tech, execution, and voltage leadership

1️⃣ Why Now? The Demand is Non-Linear

India’s capex isn’t just bigger, it’s denser, faster, and digitally layered:
🔹500 GW renewables = erratic load
🔸EV chargers = high peak power
🔹Datacentres = 24/7 voltage stability
🔸Railways = 25kV AC traction over 100,000 km
🔸Green hydrogen = ultra-stable high-capacity supply
🔹None of this can scale without EHV-grade transformers with smart control.

2️⃣ Value Migration – The Higher the Voltage, the Bigger the Moat
Category growth drivers (CY19-28 CAGR):
🔸Distribution Transformers: 6.1%
🔹Small/Medium Power Transformers: 9.5% / 8.4%
🔸Large Power Transformers: 11.3%
🔹765kV + HVDC: 12.6%

The fastest-growing segments require:
✔️Partial discharge control
✔️CRGO steel + E-beam curing
✔️Reactor integration
✔️Export compliance

3️⃣ The Rerating Trigger Is Technical, Not Cyclical
- Most infra cycles rerate on order books.
- This one will rerate on voltage certification + tech depth
Winning a 765kV transformer order means:
✔️You have passed 25-30 performance, PD, and safety tests
✔️You can manufacture, test, and integrate CRGO, bushings, reactors
✔️You’ve built the capex, processes, and IP others don’t even understand yet

That’s not commodity. That’s scarcity.
And scarcity rerates.

4️⃣ Every transformer = A smart contract between capacity, reliability & technology.
🔸This industry is misunderstood.
🔹It’s not about how many transformers are sold.
🔸It’s about what kind, what voltage, what precision.
🔹 A ₹20 Cr 765kV unit with inbuilt reactors, GIS compatibility, and PD compliance…
has 10X strategic value compared to 100 low-voltage units.
- Yet the market prices them the same.
That’s the mispricing edge.

5️⃣ So what should investors really track?
- Not volume. Not past revenue.
- But 4 forward-looking vectors:
✅ Voltage Migration – Are they winning 400kV+ and 765kV orders?
✅ System Integration – Can they design-reactor-insulate in-house?
✅ Execution Control – Is WC <100 days and ROCE >25%?
✅ Grid Relevance – Are their products aligned with India's new load architecture?
➡️ These 4 unlock rerating. Not legacy volume plays.

6️⃣ Scarcity is Another Moat.
India has <5 serious transformer players above 400kV capability.
Even fewer with:
🔸CRGO integration
🔹In-house testing & insulation
🔸Balance sheet strength to bid 765kV/PGCIL orders
🔹Ability to scale 20,000–50,000 MVA capacity fast
🔸 In a ₹50,000 Cr+ market, scarcity isn’t a bug. It’s the entire thesis.

7️⃣ Who’s Quietly Positioning Right? Execution + Tech + Capex

✅ TARIL (Transformer & Rectifiers)
🔸Doubling capacity 40,000 ➝ to 75,000 MVA
🔹Entering 765kV + reactors + GIS-compatible units
🔸Integrated CRGO, bushings, oil purification
🔹FY26 topline guide: ₹800 Cr
Rare full-stack HVDC play under ₹3,000 Cr MCap

✅ Voltamp
🔸Scaling from 2,500 ➝ 9,500 MVA
🔹₹200–250 Cr revenue guidance FY26
🔸Full year of ₹1,200 Cr capacity kicking in = operating leverage story
🔹Quiet IDT specialist with low WC + high RoCE
🔸No debt, strong promoter quality
Margin-durable, capex-light cash generator

✅ Shilchar
🔸Not chasing size. Targeting quality.
🔹Niche low-voltage + export moats
🔸20%+ EBITDA, 40%+ RoCE
Infra boutique with discipline

✅ Supreme Power Equip.
🔹 Lean execution on IDT side
🔸 Working capital <70 days
🔹 FY26E revenue guide: ₹200–250 Cr
Smart compounder in a rising tide

8️⃣ What to Avoid? The Illusion of Scale
🚫 Players who:
🔹Don’t cross 220kV tech
🔸Rely on L1 pricing instead of IP
🔹No EHV/HVDC roadmap = rerating unlikely
🔸Scale topline without fixing WC
🔹Depend on one PSU client
💡 Scale without control is chaos.
- That’s not infra investing. That’s infra guessing.

Continue....

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

02 Jul 2025 04:53

📌Oriana Power Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹4332 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹2132
🔸Stock P/E : 27.3
🔸Promoters : 57.97%

RoE : 50.91% 🚀
RoCE : 33.51%🚀

----

📌Shilchar Technologies Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹6042 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹5281
🔸Stock P/E : 41.1
🔸Promoters : 64.01%

RoE : 44.27% 🚀
RoCE : 47.16% 🚀

----

📌Waaree Energies Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹88017 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹3063
🔸Stock P/E : 47.1
🔸Promoters : 64.31%

RoE : 29.97% 🚀
RoCE : 33.44% 🚀

----

📌Australian Premium Solar Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹1081 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹548
🔸Stock P/E : 27.8
🔸Promoters : 72.97%

RoE : 40.88% 🚀
RoCE : 37.23%🚀

----

📌Alpex Solar Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹2713 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹1109
🔸Stock P/E : 32.5
🔸Promoters : 68.76%

RoE : 30.26% 🚀
RoCE : 22.58 % 🚀

----

📌Enviro Infra Engineers Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹4270 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹243
🔸Stock P/E : 24.2
🔸Promoters : 70.09%

RoE : 36.66% 🚀
RoCE : 45.57 % 🚀

----

📌Insolation Energy Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹5905 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹268
🔸Stock P/E : 48.4
🔸Promoters : 66.01%

RoE : 40.21% 🚀
RoCE : 29.61% 🚀

----

📌Jay Bee Laminations Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹542 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹240
🔸Stock P/E : 21.4
🔸Promoters : 70.61%

RoE : 25.36% 🚀
RoCE : 26.25% 🚀

----
📌PNGS Gargi Fashion Jewellery Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹914 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹882
🔸Stock P/E : 31.7
🔸Promoters : 70.23%

RoE : 42.81% 🚀
RoCE : 48.39% 🚀

----
📌Sathlokar Synergies E&C Global Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹935 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹387
🔸Stock P/E : 21.9
🔸Promoters : 62.71%

RoE : 46.85% 🚀
RoCE : 47.81% 🚀
-----------------------------------------

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

01 Jul 2025 11:14

Northern ARC says
🎯 AUM growth +22-25% in FY26
🎯 NIMs to improve by 50-60bps over next 2 years
🎯 NIM improvement to be aided by lower cost of funds & better asset mix

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

01 Jul 2025 08:29

Capex 🎯

Witnessed an increase of 54% in April,May - compared to last year

Goverment could push capex to 12 trillion - Taking YoY growth to 14.2%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

30 Jun 2025 13:18

TARA CHAND : Tara Chand Infra Completes ₹34.5 Cr Capex in Q1 FY26 for Equipment Expansion

Capex Completion: Company invested ₹34.52 Cr in new cranes in Q1 FY26.

Segment Focus: Equipment to support construction equipment rental business (Segment A).

Sector Demand: Machinery aimed at projects in industrial and renewable energy sectors.

Growth Signal: Indicates operational scale-up and positioning for future order execution.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

30 Jun 2025 09:08

Sachin Agarwal of PTCIndustries to CNBC-TV18

Previous MoU With Safran Was Related To Civil Aviation, New MoU Is For Military Ops

Approx ₹700-800 Cr Worth Of Orders Booked So Far

Expect Margin To Be In Mid-to-high 20s Range In FY26

Don't Think We Will Be Cash Starved At Any Point In Future

Will Sign Several Agreements Similar To This In The Next 6 Months

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

29 Jun 2025 14:35

ANALYSIS CASHFLOW

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 Jun 2025 10:45

BERGER PAINTS Management says Fight For The Paint Ind Is For Number 3-4-5 Position, Don't Think Top 2 Players Have To Worry - CNBCTV 18

Nothing Changes Much For The Industry Given Both Players Existed In The Market

Continue To Focus On Co's Own Growth Opportunities

Grew Market Share Despite Birla's Entry Last Year

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 Jun 2025 05:43

🧴 Nykaa – Quietly Scaling Its Own Brands

➡️ Target: ₹6,000 Cr GMV from own brands by FY30
➡️ Implies 30% CAGR from ₹2,100 Cr in FY25

Current Brand Contribution
▪️ “House of Nykaa” labels generated ₹2,100 Cr GMV in FY25
▪️ 5 brands crossed ₹100 Cr, 3 > ₹200 Cr
▪️ Includes Dot & Key, Kay Beauty, Earth Rhythm, Wanderlust

Overall GMV Performance
▪️ FY25 GMV: ₹15,600 Cr (6x vs FY20)
▪️ No forward GMV guidance shared
▪️ Beauty remains core revenue driver

Retail Strategy
▪️ 237 stores in 79 cities
▪️ Plans to reach 500+ by FY30
▪️ Omnichannel base of 42 Mn+ customers

Profitability Outlook
▪️ Nykaa Fashion expected to reach EBITDA breakeven by FY26
▪️ Long-term margin goal: 10% in fashion
▪️ Cost structure still evolving in logistics & warehousing (Nykaa Now in pilot stage)

🧭 Investor Compass View
- Nykaa is transitioning from aggregator to brand owner, but it’s a gradual path.
- Execution on margin expansion and offline scaling will be key.

➡️ Worth tracking if private label growth sustains without heavy burn.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 12:46

KPIT TECH : Weak mid-quarter guidance - CNBCTV 18

Small buy flows at Fll desk today

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 12:24

Vivek Vikram Singh of Sona BLW Precision

Sunjay Kapur Always Wanted Sona BLW To Be Prepared For Next 25 Years

Hopefully, Our New Chairman Will Have The Same Mindset As Mr Kapur

Company Would Make 10 Year Plans Earlier

Next Decade, We Will Be Focussing On The East

Looking At Humanoids And Software Content In Vehicles

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 07:31

NYKAA INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Marketing efficiencies to improve with scale as witnessed in beauty

Expects breakeven in fashion by FY26E

Expects mid to high single digit EBITDA in fashion by FY28

Expects fashion EBITDA at 10% by FY30

Will grow 3x through geographic expansion for Nykaa superstore

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 07:03

Senco Gold says
🪙 Cool off in Gold prices could lead to return of customers who were waiting for a cool off
🪙 Margins could see a mild positive impact due to lower proportion of gold hedged

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 03:48

Mankind Pharma:
Growth Powerhouse in Pharma

❇️India’s 4th Largest by Domestic Sales | 33% CAGR since 1995

❇️FY25 Revenue: ₹12,207 Cr (+19% YoY) | Q4: ₹3,079 Cr (+27%)

❇️Exports up 88% | Consumer Healthcare up 15%

❇️BSV Acquisition (₹13,768 Cr): Leader in fertility & women’s health (~20% market share)

❇️OTC Dominance: Manforce, Prega News, Unwanted-72, Gas-O-Fast — all market leaders

❇️Chronic Therapies: Gaining 1.5x IPM in cardiac, 1.3x in anti-diabetic

❇️Global Reach: 34+ countries | 6 R&D centers | 30 mfg plants | 660+ scientists

❇️FY26 Growth Target: 26% | Focus: Base biz, Chronic, OTC, BSV

❇️BSV debt repayment aimed within 3 years

Discl: This post is for informational purposes only and not a stock recommendation. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

02 Jul 2025 05:03

9️⃣ FY26-27 = Voltage Migration Litmus Test
This is the phase where:
🔸400-765kV orders become common
🔹Grid synchronization becomes critical
🔸Battery & solar co-location becomes standard
🔹HVDC corridors (Gujarat–South) scale
- Only 2-3 listed players are technically ready.
- The rest will keep bidding. But fail at building.

🔟 Investor Compass View – My High Conviction Checklists

✔️ 400kV+ certified product line
✔️ FY26E capacity >20,000 MVA
✔️ Backward integration into CRGO/reactors
✔️ WC days <100 | EBITDA >15% | ROCE >25%
✔️ Export-ready or GIS/RE compatible units
You find 1-2 companies with all 5 or 4, you’ve found your compounder.

➡️Very few can design, produce, and deliver 400kV+ transformers at scale.

➡️Track those climbing the voltage ladder, they’re the real compounders.

❓Soruce : Inved

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

02 Jul 2025 04:54

📌Black Box Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹9225 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹544
🔸Stock P/E : 34.6
🔸Promoters : 70.53%

RoE : 45.48% 🚀
RoCE : 32.77% 🚀

-----------------------------------------
📌Dam Capital Advisors Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹1788 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹253
🔸Stock P/E : 17.3
🔸Promoters : 40%

RoE : 34.19% 🚀
RoCE : 35.93% 🚀
-----------------------------------------

📌NPST Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹3962 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹2043
🔸Stock P/E : 88.2
🔸Promoters : 67.55%

RoE : 45.48% 🚀
RoCE : 48.01%🚀
-----------------------------------------

📌Shakti Pumps Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹11483 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹955
🔸Stock P/E : 28.1
🔸Promoters : 51.61%

RoE : 27.27% 🚀
RoCE : 29.49% 🚀
-----------------------------------------

📌Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd

🔸MCap : ₹5855 Crs
🔸CMP : ₹471
🔸Stock P/E : 64.5
🔸Promoters : 63.53%

RoE : 40.81% 🚀
RoCE : 50.28% 🚀

📌Note :
👉No Buy or Sell reco. Just for Educational purposes.

-----------------------------------------

Source: https://x.com/Praveen12Pranis/status/1940071151621091584

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

02 Jul 2025 04:51

📌Top Companies with Highest Avg RoE & RoCE for the last 5 Years

➡️Lets understand whats RoE & RoCE in Simple terms

▶️RoE (Return on Equity) tells you how much profit the company generates on equity capital.

▶️RoCE (Return on Capital Employed) measures how efficiently the company uses all capital (equity + debt).

➡️So what’s the advantage if a Co has high RoE & RoCE?

🔸Sustaining ROE & ROCE indicates reliability, strong business model, differentiates the Co. from peers.
🔸High returns enable reinvestment in growth opportunities, R&D while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
🔸Consistent high ROE & ROCE suggest the Co manages capital & debt well thus reducing financial risks over time.

📌Note :
▶️Considering high RoE & RoCE is just a starting point & should not considered for investment on this metrics alone.
➡️A deep dive analysis into Debts, Cash Flows, Receivables, Growth Prospects, Management are some of imp. things to look out while investing

👉Now lets a look at the list of Cos

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

01 Jul 2025 11:12

Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases list at a massive premium 🚀

Management says
👉 Revenue potential will scale to Rs.1000cr post expansion
👉 By FY27 margins headed to 40%
👉 Co is net debt free

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

01 Jul 2025 06:57

ACME SOLAR MGMT SAYS

Have No Land Acquisition Concerns In Andhra Projects

Lease Rental Metric Is At ₹2.10 Lk/MW Per Month For 1 Project

Signed PPAs Of 600 MW In The Last 15 Days

Rare-earth Availability Is Not Yet An Issue

Interest Rates Have Dropped A Lot, Have Refinanced At 8.50% & Lower

Peak Debt Will Not Cross ₹35,000 Cr

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

30 Jun 2025 09:10

PTC Industries says

Guidance for FY26
👉 Revenue around Rs.700cr with margins in high 20%
👉 Working Capital around 100 days

FY29-30 Guidance
👉 Revenues at Rs.2500-3000 cr+ with 30%+ margin

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

30 Jun 2025 03:44

💊 Torrent Pharma to acquire 46.39% stake in JB Chemicals for ₹11,917 Cr (₹1,600/share) from KKR

👉🏻 Mandatory "open offer" for 26% at ₹1,639.18/share; intent to buy up to 2.8% from employees (CMP: ₹1,800)
👉🏻 Merger to follow: 100 JB shares = 51 Torrent shares
👉🏻 Deal to boost India market presence, strategic push into CDMO, ophthalmology & global markets, and unlock synergies
👉🏻 Deal values JB Pharma at ₹25,689 Cr

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

29 Jun 2025 05:25

https://youtu.be/XhGFjNMlg-4

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 Jun 2025 06:31

DIXON TECH ; Mgmt says it is confident of maintaining its 15–18mn+ volumes for FY26/27 Vs 10.52 mn in FY25 from Motorola - NDTV PROFIT

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

27 Jun 2025 05:33

Surging Property Prices Hit Housing Sales (Q1FY26)

Residential sales down for 4th straight quarter

🔹 YoY Sales Drop: -20% in top 7 cities (Apr-Jun 2025)
🔹 Units Sold: ~96,285 vs 1.2 lakh units in Q2 2024
🔹 Key Drag: Soaring prices, Pahalgam terror attack impact, weak demand

📊 City-wise YoY Sales Fall
▪️ Pune: -27%
▪️ Hyderabad: -23%
▪️ MMR: -25%
▪️ NCR: -14%
▪️ Bengaluru: -8%
▪️ Kolkata: -23%
✅ Only Chennai grew: +11%

New Launches
▪️ Down 16% YoY (117K → 98.6K units)
▪️ Delhi-NCR & MMR: 50%+ share of launches
▪️ Chennai new launches: +40%

“War-like uncertainty + price surge = wait-and-watch mode” – Anuj Puri, Anarock..

➡️ With RBI rate cuts & easing tensions, expect rebound in H2FY26

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 12:28

HERANBA

Heranba Organics, a subsidiary of Heranba Industries, has commenced commercial production at its Sarigam Unit Phase-II.

Capacity: 9,000 MTPA

Expected Annual Revenue: ₹375–₹475 crore

This marks a significant step in expanding Heranba's manufacturing footprint and revenue potential.

CO EXPECTS SARIGAM UNIT, PHASE-I & PHASE-II TO GENERATE ANNUAL REVENUE OF RS 375 TO RS 475 CRORES

THIS WILL ADD AROUND 30% TO CO'S ANNUAL REVENUE

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 07:46

Pharma Co's ~ Valuation Summary with Growth Projections

src : Goldman Sachs

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 07:14

KEYSTONE REALTORS

CO SAYS DEMAND REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG

FY26 GUIDANCE AIMS 33% GROWTH IN PRE SALES TO RS 4000 CR

- CNBCTV18

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

26 Jun 2025 04:03

Different Power Proxy Stocks ⚡️

1) Transformers Related Stocks !!

- Danish Power
-Jaybee Lamination
-Shilchar Tech
-Vilas Transcore

2) Transmission Stocks !!

-Rajesh Power
-Transrail Lighting

3) Smart Meters !!

-Salzer Electronics
-HPL Electric

These companies are looking attractive according to future valuations.

DON’T MISS THEM 📌

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

25 Jun 2025 10:59

Genus Power
#Genus
#GenusPower

Expects a solid growth in FY26 with 18% OPM

Working capital days to reduce from FY25 levels

45,000cr tender expected to be finalized in next 9 months
Genus is well placed to secure a good chunk of these

Looking at the orderbook, next 2 years of growth path looks nicely set