Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 12:01

🔸Wockhardt is developing GLP-1 analogs like semaglutide to tap into the rising global demand for advanced diabetes treatments, strengthening its position in the $3 billion diabetes market.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 12:01

🔷Competitive Landscape: Key Players and Pipeline Developments:

🔸Market Leaders and Innovators
🔹Novo Nordisk dominates the current Indian GLP-1 market, primarily through oral semaglutide (Rybelsus), which holds approximately 69% market share as of recent reports.
🔹Eli Lilly launched tirzepatide (Mounjaro) in India, expanding therapeutic options with a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist.
🔹Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Lupin, and Sun Pharma are aggressively advancing generic or novel GLP-1 therapies, with regulatory filings and R&D pipelines targeting both domestic and international markets.
🔹Glenmark has already introduced a generic liraglutide in 2024, signaling the early start of generic competition.
🔹Piramal Pharma operates USFDA-approved peptide API manufacturing at its Turbhe site, catering to growing generic peptide demand.
🔹Biocon Ltd has received approval from the USFDA for Kirsty as the first and only interchangeable biosimilar to NovoLog (Insulin Aspart).

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 12:00

🔸Reports suggest that multiple generics will be approved by the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) by late 2025, potentially ushering in price competition that could reduce therapy costs by 50-70%, according to JM Financial.

🔸Supporting the supply chain, firms like Biocoin, Divi’s Laboratories are providing key synthetic components, while Shaily Engineering and OneSource Specialty Pharma handle pen manufacturing and fill-finish processes.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 11:39

💊 Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) Patent Expiry in 2026 Opens the Door for Many

💊Which Indian companies are racing to capture this $150 billion opportunity?

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 06:42

Unlikely to see upgrades on a broad basis, markets taking a breather. Positive on broader consumer discretionary: hospitals, hotels & capital markets

It’s a stock-picking market at this point, says Trideep Bhattacharya of #EdelweissAMC to CNBC-TV18

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

16 Jul 2025 13:31

Quarterly Result update and Live stock news
@Stockupdate9

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

16 Jul 2025 06:33

Don't like 3–4% growth trajectory, although broadly like the market. India has a strong case with favourable readings on inflation, interest rates & more

Expect financials to see recovery in growth rate, says Samir Arora of #HeliosCapital to CNBC-TV18

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

15 Jul 2025 06:15

Tata Tech shares higher in opening trade, up nearly 3%, as mgmt provides with positive outlook for #Q2 and #FY26

#TataTech says:

▶️Very confident we will not decline in FY26

▶️Confident that Q2 will be better than Q1 & a strong H2

▶️Confident of margin trending towards 18% this year & our north star is 20%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jul 2025 10:15

Advait Energy Transitions Ltd (AETL): A Rare Cross-Sectoral Compounder in the Making
- Powering India’s grid through live line reconductoring & EPC.
- Pivoting to clean-tech with electrolyzers, BESS & solar.

Here’s the data-backed thread on why it deserves your radar

1️⃣ Infra Muscle + Energy Vision = Unique Play
▪️Founded in 2010, AETL started as a transmission EPC & tools player
▪️Now transitioning into solar, battery storage, and green hydrogen
▪️Presence in 45+ countries | 450+ projects delivered
▪️FY25 Revenue: ₹399 Cr | ROCE: 28% | Order Book: ₹800 Cr
➡️Rare convergence of infra execution depth + clean energy ambition

2️⃣ Power Transmission: AETL’s Execution Moat
▪️50% market share in stringing tools | 30% in insulators
▪️8,000 km annual OPGW capacity | 18,000+ km stringing executed
▪️First to supply Make-in-India ERS to PGCIL
▪️₹295 Cr FY25 segment revenue from core infra ops
➡️ One of India’s most proven live-line infra EPC players

3️⃣ Clean-Tech Optionality Becoming Core
▪️Solar EPC: ₹96.1 Cr in FY25 | 250+ MW/yr execution capacity
▪️BESS: 50 MW / 100 MWh under execution for GUVNL
▪️Green Hydrogen: ₹5.8 Cr GH2 EPC booked in FY25
▪️Electrolyser Capex: ₹75 Cr for 300 MW capacity (PLI-backed)
▪️Fuel Cell JV with AVL (Austria) & TECO (Norway)
➡️ Clean energy now contributing >25% of revenue

4️⃣ Subsidiaries: A Full-Stack Clean-Tech Ecosystem
▪️Advait Greenergy – Solar EPC, green hydrogen, BESS and carbon credits
▪️TG Advait India (33%) – OPGW & optical fiber cable JV
▪️Advaiteco Technologies (51%) – Fuel cells via JV with AVL & TECO
▪️Advait Transmission Tools – Stringing tools with new plant underway
▪️A&G Hydrogen Tech – Hydrogen systems & equipment supply
➡️ Control across BESS, electrolysers, fuel cells, EPC and manufacturing - a clean-tech moat in motion.

5️⃣ Financials FY25 : High-Quality, Asset-Light Growth
▪️PAT: ₹32 Cr | EPS: ₹28.6
▪️Operating Margin: 12.7%
▪️ROCE: 28% | ROE: 22.4%
▪️Debt-to-Equity: 0.26x | Interest Coverage: 5.58x
▪️Dividend (FY25): ₹1.75/share
➡️ Consistent profitability, strong return ratios, and low leverage, all while staying capital-light.

6️⃣ Working Capital: Efficient, But Debtors Need Watching
▪️Debtor Days: 173, sharp rise from 75 in FY24
▪️Inventory Days: 26, down from 68, strong inventory control
▪️Payable Days: 276, higher vendor leverage
▪️Cash Conversion Cycle: -77 days, still negative
➡️ Working capital remains structurally efficient, but the spike in receivables is a key monitorable going into FY26.

7️⃣ Order Book Visibility = Growth Engine
▪️₹800 Cr unexecuted order book (as of May 2025)
▪️Major projects:
 ▫️₹86 Cr OPGW from PGCIL
 ▫️100 MW Solar EPC – Adani Green (Khavda)
 ▫️BESS project – 50 MW/100 MWh for GUVNL
➡️ 2x revenue visibility secured heading into FY26

Investors Compass View - Why AETL is a Rare Compounder
✅ Dual-engine growth: Infra + Clean-Tech
✅ Strong execution moat & project track record
✅ Negative CCC, low debt, high ROCE/ROE
✅ Control across value chain via subsidiaries
✅ ₹800 Cr order book + next-gen verticals (GH2/BESS)
➡️ AETL is no longer just an EPC player, it's steadily positioning itself as a key enabler of India’s energy transition.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jul 2025 07:56

OLA ELECTRIC Up 6% post results on Strong to Improving Outlook for Fy26

- Turned EBITDA positive for the month of June

- FY26 Exit Gross Margin seen at 35-40% with PLI benefits, which will be around ₹40-40k per vehicle.

- FY26 volumes to be around 3.25-3.75 lac vehicles and revenue to be around ₹4200 - 4700 Cr

- Auto business should generate FCF (FREE CASH FLOW) by exit FY26.

- June end cash balance of ₹3197 Cr and we don't expect anything more needed for operating needs.

- FY26 Gross Margins Guidance 35-40% vs 18.4% in Q4

- Do not expect to take any major one time warranty provisions going forward.

- Have been developing rare earth free motors

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jul 2025 04:33

Indian Railways Mega CCTV Push & Likely Eligible Beneficiaries

- 74,000 Coaches + 15,000 Locomotives
- Aimed at real-time security, theft reduction & AI-enabled monitoring
- Here’s the opportunity landscape for investors

1⃣ What’s Happening & The Scale of the Project
▪️After successful trials in Northern Railway, Railways is going ahead with nationwide CCTV rollout
▪️All coaches to get 4 dome cameras (2 per entrance), and locomotives to get 6
▪️Desk-mounted microphones in loco cabs for audio surveillance
▪️Cameras to cover front, rear & sides of locomotives for 360° visibility
▪️4 CCTV cameras per coach × 74,000 coaches = 2.96 lakh cameras
▪️6 cameras per loco × 15,000 locos = 90,000 cameras
➡️ A full-scale rollout that could exceed ₹2,000-3,000 Cr in total value

2⃣ Tech & Compliance: High-Spec + Certified
▪️Cameras will meet STQC (Standardization Testing and Quality Certification) standards
▪️Must function at >100 kmph speeds and in low-light conditions
▪️Emphasis on best-in-class video quality and reliability
➡️ AI-based analytics layer being explored via IndiaAI Mission
➡️ Behavioral analytics, unattended object detection, intrusion alerts in real-time

Focus on Privacy & Safety
▪️No installation inside compartments
▪️Only in common movement areas (entrances, vestibules)
▪️Designed to deter theft, assaults, and unauthorized access
➡️ Strategic move to boost passenger confidence in public travel

Who Stands to Benefit from Railways CCTV Mega Rollout ?

1️⃣ RailTel Corp
▪️Nodal agency for surveillance infra, Wi-Fi & video storage
▪️Led trials in Northern Railway likely rollout lead
▪️Already executes station-level CCTV projects
➡️Lead integrator for coach & loco surveillance deployment

2️⃣ Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
▪️Supplies STQC-certified CCTV systems
▪️Proven track record with Railways, Defence, Metro
▪️Likely OEM for coach & loco cameras, audio systems
➡️ Core hardware supplier with integration capability

3️⃣ Data Patterns Ltd
▪️Supplies ruggedized embedded systems (cameras/mics)
▪️Defence-grade quality, tied to BEL for subcontracts
▪️Relevant for high-spec loco surveillance kits
➡️ Eligible for loco-grade systems & subcontracts

4⃣ Prizor Viztech (Emerging Play)
▪️Indian CCTV brand building a STQC-ready portfolio
▪️Yet to receive final nod, but strategically aligned
➡️ One to watch once certification clears

More info Join
@Fundamental3

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 09:03

BANSAL WIRES Says Expect Market Share To Move To 10% In Coming Years Vs 6% Last Year 🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 09:03

BANSAL WIRES Says Margin Will Expand In 3-4 Years

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 09:03

BANSAL WIRES Management Says Demand Is Strong & EBITDA Should Improve By 10% In FY26

Maintain FY26 Volume Growth Guidance Of 25-30%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 06:28

Fine Organics 🌎 | Global Expansion – U.S. Land Acquisition

📑 Fine Organics Americas LLC, a subsidiary of Fine Organics, has acquired ~159.92 acres of land in Jonesville, South Carolina (USA).

🏭 Purpose:
▪️ To set up a new manufacturing facility
▪️ Part of its global expansion strategy

🌍 Strategic Goal:
▪️ Strengthen presence across North, Central, and South America
▪️ Enhance supply chain and customer service in key overseas markets

📈 This acquisition marks a pivotal step in scaling operations internationally.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 12:01

🔷Government Support:
🔸The Production-Linked Incentive scheme encourages local manufacturing of GLP-1 drugs post-2026 patent expiry. Major pharma firms are applying, signaling strong government-industry collaboration to reduce import reliance and improve margins.
🔷Recent R&D and Capacity Expansion Highlights: India’s pharma sector is witnessing substantial investment in peptide therapeutics, critical for GLP-1 drug development:
🔸Biocon Ltd has received approval from the USFDA for Kirsty as the first and only interchangeable biosimilar to NovoLog (Insulin Aspart).

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 12:00

🔷Why GLP-1 Drugs Are Gaining Spotlight in India

🔸India faces a growing health crisis with rising obesity and type 2 diabetes, projected to impact over 11% of adults by 2035. GLP-1 receptor agonists are gaining attention for offering dual benefits: effective blood sugar control and significant weight loss.

🔸However, most of these drugs are expensive imports from the US, with monthly costs often exceeding ₹20,000 (e.g., Wegovy and Ozempic), making them unaffordable for many. This has created a strong push for domestic manufacturing, especially with patent expiries and government support likely through PLI schemes. As a result, the Indian GLP-1 market is expected to grow rapidly at a 34.3% CAGR through 2030.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 11:40

🔸GLP-1 drugs mimic the hormone glucagon-like peptide-1, helping regulate blood sugar by boosting insulin, reducing glucagon, slowing digestion, and increasing satiety. They are primarily used to treat type 2 diabetes, with popular options including semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) and liraglutide (Victoza, Saxenda).

🔸These drugs have recently gained attention for their weight loss benefits, showing significant results in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients. Their ability to aid weight management and improve heart health has made them a breakthrough in diabetes and obesity care.

🔷Patent Expiry and Market Dynamics: The Door Opens for Indian Generics:
🔸A pivotal event shaping the GLP-1 market in India is the scheduled expiration of Novo Nordisk’s patent for semaglutide (marketed as Wegovy and Ozempic) in 2026. This patent cliff creates an opportunity for Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers to launch generic versions, which is likely to drive down prices and expand patient access.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 11:33

KP Energy – FY26: Wind Infra Compounder in the Making

- While large infra gets headlines, the real compounding is happening where few look, in execution, grid, and annuity.
- Here’s why KP Energy might be India’s next great infra enabler

1️⃣ A Wind Infra Specialist With Operating Muscle
▪️FY25 Revenue: ₹958 Cr (+97%)
▪️PAT: ₹115 Cr | EBITDA Margin: 19%
▪️ROE > 35% | EPS: ₹17.3 (vs ₹8.8)
Not just growth profitable, cash-generating growth.

2️⃣ A ₹2,800 Cr Order Book Isn’t Just Big - It’s Smart
▪️2.26 GW in hand (across clients + states)
▪️500 MW of new orders expected by Sep ‘25
▪️3.5 GW bid pipeline under evaluation
Execution backlog till FY26 is locked and loaded.

3️⃣ Execution Is a Moat, Not a Buzzword
▪️In-house SCADA, cranes, LIDAR, met-masts
▪️CTU/STU grid connectivity pre-secured
▪️Early project completion track record
Infra operating leverage → faster delivery, lower cost.

4️⃣ EPC Is the Cash Engine
▪️97% of revenue from BoP EPC
▪️₹196 Cr EBITDA with milestone billing
▪️Negative working capital cycle
Clean model + strong margins = core compounding engine.

5️⃣ IPP Portfolio: Building the Annuity Layer
▪️48.5 MW now → 100 MW by FY27
▪️₹2.43/unit tariff for new project
▪️IRR intact due to infra reuse & captive ops
Every MW added creates recurring, de-risked income.

6️⃣ O&M Is a Small Flywheel Now - But Watch It Turn
▪️₹4.5 Cr in FY25 → ₹6.5 Cr FY26
▪️546 MW under mgmt; assets aging into paid service
▪️Low cost, high IRR vertical
Infra lifecycle monetisation is the hidden compounding layer.

7️⃣ Offshore Wind: 2 GW of Silent Optionality
▪️Govt tenders in Gujarat & TN underway
▪️70 GW national potential
▪️KP + KPI Green consortium ready to bid
Few midcaps have offshore positioning. KP already does.

8️⃣ Clients Are Blue-Chip. Orders Are Strategic.
▪️Aditya Birla, NTPC, GUVNL, recurring business
▪️1.2 GW internal EPC order from KPI Green (to Oct ’26)
▪️Even delayed projects (NTPC/INGEL) now progressing
The client list says it all, reputation = repeatability.

9️⃣ FY26 Guidance Is Bold and Backed By Execution
▪️60-70% YoY revenue growth guided
▪️₹2,800 Cr backlog, 3.5 GW pipeline
▪️Margins to remain ~19%
Unlike others, KP’s guidance is grounded in booked orders, not hope.

🔟 What’s the Real Opportunity Here ?
- It’s not just about EPC or wind or orders.
- It’s about:
✓ A scalable, execution-focused infra platform
✓ A founder-led group with annuity layering
✓ Clean balance sheet + optionality in offshore
- This is not a story of wind. It’s a story of infra done right.

🧭Investors Compass Take
– KP Energy = Infra Optionality + Execution Moat + Earnings Durability
- In a sector full of noise, KP has quietly built:
▪️Visibility
▪️Profitability
▪️Repeatability
▪️Optionality
➡️ The rerating will follow the results.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

17 Jul 2025 05:43

June General Insurance Data – Nuvama

🔸 BAGIC: GDPI jumped +17.1% YoY, led by: ▪️ Fire 🔥 +27.6%
▪️ Motor TP 🚗 +62.4%
▪️ Retail Health +13% (beat industry)
▪️ Group GDPI ▼5.6%
▪️ Motor OD +14.6%
📌 Rating: HOLD | TP: ₹2,000

🔸 ICICI GI: Total GDPI ▼10.4% YoY
▪️ Motor ▼2.1% (OD +0.8%, TP ▼5%)
▪️ Retail Health +31.2% 🚀
▪️ Group Health ▼11.9%
📌 Rating: BUY | TP: ₹2,340

🔸 Star Health (STARHEAL):
▪️ Retail Health GDPI +8.7% YoY
▪️ Overall Health GDPI +3.2%
▪️ Group Health ▼47.3%
📌 Rating: BUY | TP: ₹500

🔸 Go Digit:
▪️ Motor GDPI +6.8% (TP +9.7%, OD +2.1%)
▪️ Health GDPI +6.7% (Group +6%)

🔸 Niva Bupa:
▪️ Total Health GDPI +16.3% YoY
(Retail +10.7%, Group +30.5%)

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

16 Jul 2025 11:14

Oberoi Realty - Future Outlook

Pre‐sales to clock 46% CAGR over FY25–27E, rising from ~₹53 b in FY25 to ~₹112 b by FY27

Annuity portfolio
Rental income from office & retail assets to grow at ~29% CAGR over FY25–27E, reaching ~₹13 b by FY27

Collections & Cash flows:
- Residential collections to rise at 30% CAGR to ₹90 b by FY27
- Operating cash flow to clock 38% CAGR to ₹73 b by FY27

Lease rentals from commercial portfolio to post ~27% CAGR to ~₹7 b by FY27

Key growth triggers

Robust launch pipeline: new towers in Borivali, Goregaon, Forestville; projects in Gurugram, Adarsh Nagar, Worli, Tardeo.
Alibaug land in design phase

Commercial occupancy ramp‑up: Commerz III at 81% in 4Q FY25, full leasing of all office assets by FY26E

Net debt/equity at 0.01× in FY25

src : MOFSL

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

15 Jul 2025 10:52

Landmark Cars :

Q1 FY26 revenue rose 21.56% YoY to ₹1,415 crore, with vehicle sales growing 24.6% and after-sales services up 8.3%.

The company expanded its network with new Kia workshops in Hyderabad and began Mercedes-Benz operations in Patna.

It plans to open a Mahindra outlet in Kolkata and Kia mini outlets in Hyderabad and Kolkata.

MG Select operations will start in Ahmedabad and Kolkata, focusing on high-demand EV models like Cyberster and M9.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

15 Jul 2025 06:11

Tata Tech Ceo Says Confident In The JLR Story, And Our Ability To Contribute

Have Been Excited With The Performance That JLR Has Made

Very Confident We Will Not Decline In FY26

Confident That Q2 Will Be Better Than Q1 & A Strong H2

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jul 2025 09:09

VIP INDUSTRIES

Mgmnt speaks to CNBCTV18Live after deal

Dilip Piramal says

Had A Management Crisis In The Last Few Yrs

Younger Generation Is Not Interested In Management Of Co

Went Ahead With A PE Player Because Of Their Expertise In Creating Value

https://x.com/blitzkreigm/status/1944653449724887483

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jul 2025 05:36

Best 25+ Themes To look at ~ Double Digit Growth

Market Leaders in Segment⏬

- Auto Ancs : Lumax Auto, Fiem, Lumax, Gabriel, Ask Auto, SJS Ent, Pricol

- Capital Goods : TD Power, Triveni Turbine, Elecon, Kirloskar pneumatic, Interarch, Shivalik Bimetal

- Housing Finance : Aptus Value, India Shelter, Home First, Bajaj Housing, Aadhar Housing

- NBFCs : Bajaj Finance, Chola Fin, Muthoot Fin, SBFC, MAS Fin, Northern ARC, Capri Global

- Retail
Value Retail : V2Retail, Style Bazaar, Trent, Vishal Mega

Jewellery : Kalyan, PN Gadgil, Senco, Manoj Vaibhav, Thangamayil, D.P. Abhushan

- Real Estate : Prestige, Godrej Prop, Lodha, Sunteck, Keystone, Signature Global, Max Estates

- Co-working : EFC, Awfis, SmartWorks

- Platform/Exchange : CarTrade, Zinka Logistics, InfoEdge, PB fintech, Zomato, IEX, MCX, Nykaa

- Ports : Adani Ports, JSW Infra

- Hospitals : Max Health, Yatharth, Dr Agarwal's, NH, KIMS, Medanta, HCG

- API/CDMO/CRDMO : Aarti Pharma, Senores, OneSource, BlueJet, Laurus labs, Innova Captab, Jubilant Pharmova, Supriya Life, Concord Bio

- Diagnostics : Thyrocare, Krsnaa, Vijaya, Metropolis, 3B Blackbio

- Hotels : Indian Hotel, Lemon Tree, Chalet, Samhi, Ventive, Park Hotels, Juniper

- Mutual Funds (Financialisation) : CAMS, Kfin Tech, Anand Rathi, Prudent Corp, HDFC AMC, Nippon life

- Wealth/Asset Management : Motilal Oswal, Nuvama, 360One, Edelweiss, JM Financial

- EMS : Syrma SGS, PGEL, Amber, Dixon, Kaynes, Epack

- Consumer Durables : IFB, Whirlpool, Bluestar, VGuard, Voltas, Crompton

- Crane/Crane Rental : Action Contruction, Sanghvi Mover, Tara Chand, Indo Farm, TIL

- Insurance (Life + General + TPA) : HDFC Life, Max Life, ICICI Pru, Medi Assist, Niva Bupa, Go Digit

- Steel Pipes/Tubes : APL Apollo, Goodluck, Venus Pipes, Hariom Pipes, Sambhv, Hi Tech pipes, Ratnamani

- T&D (Transformers, W&C, EPC) :
Skipper, Transrail lighting, Techno Electric, Polycab, KEI Ind, Apar, RR Kabel, Shilchar Tech, TARIL

- Waste/Water : Jash Engineering, Va Tech, Pondy Oxides, Ganesha Eco, Gravita India

- Infrastructure : L&T, J Kumar, PSP Projects, ITD Cem, Ahluwalia, Capacite Infra

- Exporters : Pokarna, Garware Hi Tech, Goldiam, MPS, LT Foods

- Dairy : Heritage, Hatsun Agro, Dodla Dairy, Parag Milk

- Textiles : Pearl Global, PDS, Faze Three, Thomas Scott, Kitex, Arvind, S P Apparels

Not a reco to buy/sell
Shared only for educational purposes

Credit : https://x.com/EquityInsightss/status/1944378058762510366

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

14 Jul 2025 03:57

Scoda Tubes Ltd – Stainless Steel, Seamless Growth Ahead ?
- Post IPO, this smallcap pipe player is doubling capacity, ramping exports, and expanding into high-demand welded segments.
- Let’s decode the transition with hard numbers, capex milestones, and margin shifts

1⃣ From Pipes to Platform: Scoda’s Stack
Scoda isn’t chasing volume for volume’s sake.
▪️Seamless Capacity: 10,068 TPA
▪️Welded Capacity: 1,020 TPA
▪️Mother Hollow: 20,000 TPA (hot piercing mill since May 2022)
➡️ In FY25, 85%+ of revenue came from seamless tubes, not welded.

2⃣ Capex That Reflects Intent, Not Just Scale
Capex Outlay: ₹105 Cr (from IPO)
▪️₹55 Cr → Seamless Expansion
▪️₹45 Cr → Welded Pipe Expansion
▪️Timeline:
  Seamless ramp-up by Aug–Sep 2025 (H1 FY26)
  Welded pipes plant commercial by Q1 FY27
▪️Finished Goods Capacity → 11,088 TPA → 33,128 TPA
➡️ 3x total output by FY27, not for chasing tubes, but strategic pipes

3⃣ Financials Show Operating Leverage Already Working
▪️Revenue stood at ₹484.9 Cr in FY25 ⬆️ 21% YoY
▪️EBITDA came in at ₹78.1 Cr ⬆️ 33% YoY
▪️PAT surged to ₹31.7 Cr ⬆️ 73% YoY
▪️EBITDA Margin: 16.1% (+139 bps YoY)
▪️PAT Margin: 6.5% (+197 bps YoY)
▪️Return ratios remain robust:
 ◦ ROE: 29.7%
 ◦ ROCE: 20.4%
 ◦ Debt/Equity: 1.40×
➡️ Revenue is growing, but margin & PAT surge show operating leverage kicking in with scale.

4⃣ Q4 Margin Dip – Explained, Not Alarming
▪️Margin dip was due to higher mother hollow sales, which are lower-margin products
▪️Management clarified: From FY26, all mother hollows will be used in-house
🗣️ “The decline in gross margins was due to a higher proportion of mother hollow sales in Q4.”
🗣️ “Next year, these will be 100% captive.”
➡️ Temporary product mix impact, not a structural issue. Margins expected to normalise.

5⃣ Welded Tubes ⛔ → Welded Pipes ✅
- Scoda is reshaping its welded product strategy.
▪️Current capacity: Welded tubes, demand declining
▪️New capex targets: Welded pipes, broader infra & commercial use
▪️Margin Profiles:
  ◦ Seamless: 16-18% EBITDA
  ◦ Welded Pipes: 12-13% EBITDA
  ◦ Blended: ~15-16% post-expansion
➡️ Management is pivoting into higher-growth, higher-margin product lines.

6⃣ Exports: Europe Now, US Next
- FY25 Export Share: 27%
▪️Europe: 22% | Americas: 4%
▪️Export footprint: 14 countries
▪️Active stockists: 26 (including exclusive partners in US & Europe)
▪️Europe office setup underway
🗣️ “We are setting up offices in Europe to manage logistics and customer interface locally.”
➡️ Scoda is evolving from an exporter to a globally-embedded supplier.

7⃣ Industry Tailwinds Support the Growth Thesis
▪️Global anti-China sentiment continues
▪️EU/US anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel remain in effect
▪️Domestic capacity still below global demand
▪️Industry growth for SS pipes & tubes: 6–8% CAGR (FY24–29)
▪️Management target: 15–20% volume CAGR
🗣️ “We aim to grow 2.5–3x the industry rate in volumes.”
➡️ Scoda is positioned to outgrow the sector, not just ride it.

8⃣ Where the Next Leg of Growth Will Come From
Targeting approvals in new sectors:
▪️Marine
▪️Power
▪️Green Energy
▪️Defence
➡️ These sectors are not included in base growth guidance but offer future upside.

9⃣ Key Risks as Per Management
▪️No volume disclosure (competitive reasons)
▪️Q4 margins impacted by mother hollow mix (temporary)
▪️Revenue concentration:
  ◦ Top 5 Customers: 44%
  ◦ Top 10: 58%
▪️Debt/Equity: 1.40×
▪️No immediate plan to reduce finance costs
➡️ Execution + diversification are the key risks to monitor

🧭 Investor Compass Verdict – Pipes with Purpose
- Scoda isn’t a vanilla pipe manufacturer anymore.
- It’s transforming into a:
▪️Backward-integrated stainless player
▪️Export-anchored margin story
▪️Capex-backed volume compounder
▪️Strategically positioned for PSU infra and global sourcing shifts
- If they execute, it compounds. If they delay, it de-rates.
- High risk. High conviction.


@Faundamental3

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 09:03

Bansal Wires Says Expect EBITDA/tonne At ₹6,500 In FY26, To Rise To ₹8,000-9,000

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 09:03

BANSAL WIRES management Says 20-25% Of Revenue To Come From Value-added Products By FY26-end

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

11 Jul 2025 06:30

NPAs related to Gensol were known to the market, another one-off in Q1 was due to assets booked back in FY20

Expect 12-15 bps decline in cost of borrowing through 54EC Bonds

Pradip Kumar Das, IREDA to CNBC-TV18

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

10 Jul 2025 12:32

Q1FY26 RESULT START

TCS RESULT OUT

NOT TO MISS @Stockupdate9