Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 12:20

INFOSYS FY26 GUIDANCE

CC REVENUE GROWTH GUIDANCE RAISED ΤΟ 1-3% FROM 0-3%

LOWER BAND OF FY26 REVENUE GROWTH GUIDANCE INCREASED TO 1% FROM 0%

MARGIN GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AT 20-22%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 07:47

When a stock is valued at more than 100x P/Ex
And
Growth slows down!

Stock tanks,
Time and again, the same thing happens!

Valuations do matter

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 06:28

KEI Industries - Q1FY26 results

Company has surpassed its guidance of 17-18% growth in FY26 to 25% growth in the topline in Q1FY26

✅REV ↑ 25.44% Rs. 2590 CR
✅EBITDA ↑ 28.06% Rs. 298 CR
✅EBITDA margin: 11.49% vs 11.25% in Q1FY25
✅PAT ↑ 30.28% Rs. 196 CR
✅PAT Margin: 7.56% vs 7.28% in Q1FY25

Cable & Wire Institutional
=> Domestic C&W grew by 26.62% to Rs. 711 CR
=> Domestic EHV was up by 46.83% to Rs. 116 CR
=> Exports are up by 122.09% to Rs. 332 CR

Cables & Wire Dealers/Distribution
=> Topline up by 22.21% in Q1 to Rs. 1326 CR from Rs. 1085 CR in Q1FY25
=> Total active working dealers 2094.

EPC Projects and SS Wire
=> Export sale of EPC is Rs. 14 CR in Q1 from Rs. 58 CR in Q1FY25
=> SS wire sale increased to Rs. 27 CR from Rs. 25 CR in Q1FY25

Revenue Mix:
=> Institutional & Export Cable & Wire Sale - 44.77%
=> Dealer/Distribution - 51.18%
=> EPC Sale - 2.36%
=> SS Wire - 1.93%

Product Mix -
🔹LT Cable - Rs. 1037 CR
🔹HW/WW - Rs. 842 CR
🔹HT Cable - Rs. 480 CR
🔹EHV Cable - Rs. 126 CR

Pending order of KEI Industries is Rs. 3,921 CR.

QIP proceeds and Sanand Facility expansion
=> Capex incurred as of 30th June'25 - Rs. 292.88 CR
=> New cable facility, Sanand Ahmedabad Rs. 454.29 CR
=> Repayment - Rs. 275.99 CR
=> Product testing & Raw Materials - Rs. 149.26 CR
=> Total QIP of Rs. 2000 CR out of which 913.92 CR utilized and remaining Rs. 1,086.90 CR is left
=> Funds of Rs. 1105.92 CR unused has been kept as bank deposits
=> Cash/Bank - Rs. 1699 CR

KEI industries have posted good numbers surpassing their guidance though Polycab is still leading with 26% growth in topline and 31% in W&C.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 05:27

One of the ways through which we source ideas:-

1) Look for stocks which expanded their Fixed Assets quite heavily in the past (Capex).

2) Their margins are down due to higher Depreciation and Interest Cost + Bad Cycle.

3) Study them and value them roughly.

4) Wait for stage 2 to start as an entry criterion.

5) Buy when margins start going up, and have at least one tranche in during the pain phase.

6) Average up when 30WEMA starts shaping upwards.

7) Keep doing reverse DCF to track implied growth expectations.

Hope you found it useful!

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 05:06

WHAT SECTOR TO WATCH?

CEMENT-STRONG START TO EARNINGS SEASON-COST REDUCTION IN Q1-LONGS DEVELOPED+LONGS DEVELOPED

NEW AGE TECH-LONGS-Q1 NUMBERS COMING STRONG ON GUIDANCE AND PROFITABILITY (ZOMATO MIGHT SEE PROFIT BOOKING ON RECENT RUN-UP FROM 260-300 LEVELS)+BUYING MIGHT EXTEND

BROKING STOCKS/BROKERAGES/DEPOSITORIES-MAY REMAIN VOLATILE AS ALGO GUIDELINES COMES NSE+SLIGHT UPMOVE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTER SEBI LIFTED BAN ON JANE STREET-BUT EARNINGS STILL IMPACTED IN FO SEGMENT DUE TO SEBI REGULATIONS

CONSUMPTION THEME-LIQUOR STOCKS MAY JUMP UP AFTER STRONG NUMBERS-FMCG NUMBERS WERE LARGELY DECENT+STRONG PALM OILORDERS COMING AHEAD OF FESTIVE SEASON

EMS STOCKS-IN FOCUS AFTER STRONG NUMBERS FROM DIXON-BUT VALUATIONS REMAIN A CONCERN

METAL STOCKS-AUGUST 1 UNWINDING TRADE MAY CONTINUE IN-SOME COUNTERS-WHILE SOME COUNTERS MAY CONTNUE WITH LONGS DUE TO RISING PRICES

TEXTILE/JEWELLERY STOCKS/JLR-UK-INDIA FTA LIKELY TO BE SIGNED ON JULY 24+BANGLADESH +1

AUTO ANCILLARIES/MARUTI SUZUKI(+VE)-MORE CLARITY ON GLOBAL AUTO OEM INDUSTRY AS DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED 15% TARIFFS ON JAPAN

IT STOCKS-INFOSYS AND MIDCAP IT EARNINGS-MAYBE IN CONSOLIDATION PHASE

BANKS MAY REMAIN VOLATILE-FIIs CHURNINGMAY BE THERE AS WELL

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 06:41

Dodla Dairy says

Guidance for FY26
🥛 Organic growth will be approx 12-13% in FY26 +
🥛 Osam Foods will contribute Rs.150-200 Cr
🥛 Will maintain EBITDA margins at 8-10%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 05:44

Disclaimer: Above study is not buy sell suggestion 🙏🏻

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 05:44

3. Growth Drivers and Key Catalysts

- Order book: Visibility into FY26; multi-year contracts, customer additions in EU/US.
- Capacity expansion:
- Unit-II (Ambernath) and Unit-III (Mahad) major upgrades.
- Dahej site acquired; new multi-purpose plant and expanded R&D (Hyderabad) in pipeline to drive product and client diversification.
- New products:
- Advanced intermediates for new cardiovascular and contrast media molecules (e.g., gadopiclenol, NCE launches in H1 FY26).
- Sweeteners: New higher-margin molecules for FMCG clients.
- Macroeconomic trends:
- CDMO tailwinds from global pharma’s China+1 strategy.
- Ageing demographics and chronic disease prevalence boost CMI demand.
- Regulatory push for import substitution (India), environmental focus.
- Management guidance:
- Confident outlook, with 26% revenue CAGR and 30% EBITDA CAGR guided for FY25–28. Credibility reinforced by historic guidance delivery.

4. Industry Positioning & Competitive Edge

- Revenue: ₹10.3bn TTM – mid-sized CDMO, smaller than Neuland (₹16.3bn) and Jubilant (₹28.7bn)
- EBITDA Margin: 36.7% (FY25) – much higher than peer average (21–31%), margin leader
- PE Ratio: 57.2x (Forward) – well above sector average (~39x), trades at a premium
- ROCE: 36–40% estimated – far ahead of peer norm (high teens/low 20s), efficiency leader

Blue Jet is a mid-sized, highly profitable CDMO with industry-leading margins and capital efficiency, but trades at a premium to sector averages.

Moats:
- Exclusive supplier to top global CMI customers
- Proven ability to scale new pharma intermediates rapidly
- High regulation, large entry barriers, and R&D/engineering capabilities
- Vertically integrated supply chains and environmental focus

Competitive Landscape:
- Industry has consolidated customer base but fragmented supplier base.
- Competition mostly global (large EU/US/Japan suppliers); few credible Indian peers at scale.

5. Valuation – Sector-Relevant Approach

- Industry-relevant metrics:
- EV/EBITDA: 40.5x (TTM)
- P/E: 57.2x (TTM)
- Peer average EV/EBITDA: 17–28x; P/E: 23–35x
- Current valuation:
- Stock trades at a premium to both peers and its 5-year historic average.
- Market cap: ₹174.6bn; share price: ₹1,006.80 (Jul 21, 2025)
- Implied growth:
- Valuation assumes continued high-double-digit earnings growth.
- Consensus 1Y price target: ₹946–1,200 (current price > average target).

6. Financial Summary (Q4FY25/TTM)

- Revenue: ₹3,404 mn in Q4; ₹10,300 mn full year (+7% QoQ, +45% YoY; 3Y CAGR ~30%)
- EBITDA: ₹1,400 mn in Q4; ₹3,777 mn full year (+13% QoQ, +65% YoY; 3Y CAGR ~34%)
- EBITDA Margin: 41.1% for Q4; 36.7% for FY25 (+400 bps YoY)
- Net Profit: ₹1,101 mn in Q4; ₹3,052 mn for FY25 (+11% QoQ, +87% YoY)
- PAT Margin: 32.3% for Q4; 29.6% for FY25 (+663 bps YoY)
- ROCE: ~36–40% estimated
- Cash & Investments: ₹2,848 mn
- Net Debt: Zero (debt-free)
- Planned Capex: ₹3,000 mn (Dahej, Mahad, R&D)
- Working Capital Cycle: ~139 days (increased with scale)

Blue Jet posted robust topline and margin growth in FY25, maintaining high capital efficiency, strong cash position, and a debt-free balance sheet.

Balance Sheet:
- Debt-free, strong cash position (₹2.8bn).
- D/E: Nil.
- Interest Coverage: N/A (no net debt); robust cash flows.
- Cash conversion impacted temporarily by expansion cycle; operating cash flow in line with accruals.

7. Risk Assessment

- Sectoral/Structural:
- Large customer concentration (top 3 drive majority of revenue)
- Regulatory risks (pharma/export, environmental standards)
- Macro: Euro/₹ currency volatility

- Company-Specific:
- Execution risks: capacity ramp-up (Mahad/Dahej), new product commercialization timelines
- Raw material supply-chain, especially for specialty chemicals
- Governance: No red flags; high promoter holding (alignment)
- Tech risk: Slow pace of new molecule adoption by clients

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 05:29

I will share my detail study on it

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 03:50

Study in detail BLUEJET

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 03:45

DCM Shriram Ltd
#DCMShriram

Press release and inv PPT:

Stable and steady Q1FY26 led by Chemicals(Caustic segment)

Sugar segment has one off exceptional loss of 36cr which impacted Q1FY26

Exceptional loss of 36cr due to restrospective levy of duty on ethanol exported outside UP
Impacted sugar & ethanol segment in Q1FY26

Q1FY26:
Rev⏫13% at 3455cr
EBITDA ⏫22% at 304cr vs 248cr
OPM ⏫90bps YoY

RoCE 13.2%
Net debt stable at 1481cr

Definitive agreement to acquire 100% stake in Hindustan Speciality Chemicals
Forward integration of ECH into Epoxy and to start advanced materials
Expected completion by Q2FY26

Commisioning of 52,000 TPA ECH plant
Aluminium extrusion facility by FY26
Aluminium chloride and Calcium Chloride plant by FY27

Q1FY26:
Caustic:
Volumes up 20%
ECU realizations ⏫8%
Rev at 905cr⏫43%
PBDIT at 222cr⏫68%
25% OPM

Shriram Farm Solutions has a good quarter with rev⏫29% and PBDIT ⏫22%

Fennesta steady
Orderbook ⏫12%
Spending on brand building

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 10:05

JSW Steel says

💪 Domestic steel demand resilient
🤞 Hopes that Chinese prices have bottomed
👍 Q2FY26 volumes will recover post shutdowns
🤞 Optimistic of a favorable verdict on BPSL case

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 09:36

Rossari Biotech Says

Volume growth at 11% in Q1, exports grew at 6%

Ethylene oxide from Reliance should come in next 12 months

RM prices have touched a 10-15 year low, may have bottomed

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 08:10

L&T Finance says

🎯 Expect 20%-25% AUM growth
🎯 ROAs to be near 2.8% mark by end-FY26
🎯 MFI biz asset quality issues to bottom out by Q3 vs earlier estimate of Q2

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 07:29

Himadari Specialty: Co Sees Good Volume Growth Despite Improved Margins; Birla Tyres Unit Expected To Boost Volume Soon; Carbon Black Capacity Issues Will Be Fixed By Q3 Fy26

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 09:54

#IRFC at day's high, company says Q2 disbursements expected to be 50% or more of FY26 guidance

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 06:36

Did well in #Q1 despite headwinds, business has been resilient in July, will see margin to sustain between 49-50%.

Will see annual recurring rev over ₹20,000 cr with a double-digit growth YoY, says Anuraag Bhatnagar of #Schloss (#TheLeela) Hotels

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 06:25

Taking cautious view, sticking to full year growth guidance of 18-20% for FY26, maintain our guidance of increasing export to total sales to 20% in 2-3 yrs.

Our market share in domestic market will remain at current levels, says Anil Gupta of #KEIIndustries

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

23 Jul 2025 05:19

CCTV - A big theme in making! In india today 85-90% is imported from China, Taiwan and Japan. Once BIS or duty imposed, it’ll benefit huge to Indian players. Very few in-house manufacturing players.

Below stock is beneficiary 👇

Panache Digilife
Prizor Viztech

More updates will share about this company in coming time stay tuned

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 07:24

RAJRATAN GLOBAL WIRE
FY26 MANAGEMENT OUTLOOK & BUSINESS UPDATE – CNBCTV18

📌 SUMMARY:
Rajratan Global aims to deliver strong growth in volumes, revenue, and margins in FY26, backed by capacity expansion in Thailand and improving utilisation in Chennai. The company remains a market leader in bead wire with growing international exposure.

FINANCIAL & GROWTH GUIDANCE – FY26

🔸 VOLUME GROWTH TARGET: 15%
🔸 REVENUE GUIDANCE: ₹1,100 CRORE
🔸 MARGIN EXPECTATION: In the range of 13–15%

CAPACITY & OPERATIONS

🔹 THAILAND CAPACITY to be increased to 48,000 TONNES
🔹 CURRENT UTILISATION IN THAILAND: 80%, with headroom for 10–15% additional output
🔹 CHENNAI PLANT utilisation to CROSS 50% IN NEAR TERM

MARKET PRESENCE

📍 INDIA MARKET SHARE: ~30%
📍 THAILAND MARKET SHARE: ~35%

📦 PRODUCT FOCUS:
• BEAD WIRE remains the BIGGEST REVENUE CONTRIBUTOR

🌍 EXPORTS & GLOBAL BUSINESS
✅ Continue to SUPPLY TO 2 CUSTOMERS IN EUROPE
✅ US BUSINESS is witnessing HEALTHY GROWTH MOMENTUM

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 06:24

SECTORS TO FOCUS

🔹 Auto – M&M results expected strong + Monsoon coverage supportive

🔹 Cement – Ultratech's strong update + institutional accumulation + Eastern India pricing power

🔹 Capital Goods – Macro data strong + broad-based buying across the sector

🔹 Capital Markets – SEBI greenlights Jane Street participation

🔹 Sugar – Govt allows sugar exports = positive trigger for the pack

🔹 IT – FII churn from banks + strong Big Tech earnings in US

🔹 Metals – Technical breakout + China macro + stimulus tailwind + EU mining rally

🔹 Housing Finance – Strong Q1 earnings + rate transmission benefits

🔹 Cables & Wires – Havells’ strong segmental performance gives a boost

🔹 Textiles – Govt push for exports; FTA, Bangladesh +1 tailwind


Stay sharp. Watch the volume-action combo

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 05:44

8. Investment Checklist

- Clear structural growth driver: Yes — Strong sector momentum in global CDMO and import substitution.
- Margin expansion tailwind: Yes — Benefits from capacity leverage and richer product mix.
- Capital efficiency (ROCE > WACC): Yes — ROCE estimated at 36–40%.
- Clean balance sheet: Yes — Debt-free with a robust cash position.
- Attractive valuation: No — Valuation remains at a premium relative to peers.
- Execution credibility: Yes — Proven track record in guidance and successful scale-up.
- No material governance red flag: Yes — No pledging, clean audit record, transparent disclosures.
- Moat/entry barrier: Yes — Possesses niche chemistry focus and locked-in top-tier clients.

9. Bull, Base & Bear Case Scenarios (FY26E–27E Estimate)

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case:
Strong extension of CMI contracts, early Dahej ramp-up, and fast scaling of new molecules lead to 28% revenue CAGR, EBITDA margin above 40%, and ROCE over 40%. Implied price target: ₹1,300 (+30% upside).

Base Case:
Steady CMI/API orders and gradual commissioning deliver 22% revenue CAGR, EBITDA margin of 36–38%, and ROCE of 34–36%. Implied price: ₹1,025 (no significant change).

Bear Case:
Delays in CMI clients, slow new product launches, and raw material cost pressures result in 14% revenue CAGR, EBITDA margin of 28–30%, and ROCE below 25%. Implied price: ₹820 (–18% downside).

- Bull case assumes market share gains, faster capacity absorption, and multiple molecules commercialized; re-rating to 45x EV/EBITDA.

- Bear case is plausible if key customers diversify supply chains and demand recovery is tepid; margin pressure and inventory build-up delay cash flow conversion.

10. Management Commentary (Q4FY25 Call Tone)

- Positive tone: "record-setting year," "meaningful improvement in quality of earnings".
- Emphasis on proactive capex and new product launches.
- Strong confidence in customer order visibility/multi-year contracts.
- No cut in guidance. No tone shift to overt caution.
- Focused on execution pace and sustaining margins.

11. Conclusion

Blue Jet Healthcare is emerging as a secular compounder with strong earnings visibility aided by specialty positioning, global client lock-ins, and operational discipline. Its capital efficiency and margin leadership offer clear differentiation vs Indian CDMO peers. However, valuation appears stretched versus both peers and historic norms and leaves little room for disappointment. Upside from here needs either sharp execution on new molecules/capacity or a sector-wide multiple re-rating. Monitoring customer concentration and supply-chain/geopolitical risks will be key to the thesis over the next 12–24 months.

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 05:44

Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd. – Fundamental Investment Research

1. Company Snapshot

Business Description:
Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd. is a B2B pharmaceutical company specializing in the development, manufacture, and supply of contrast media intermediates (CMI), high-intensity sweeteners, and advanced pharmaceutical intermediates and APIs. Its CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organization) solutions cater globally to leading innovators in pharma imaging and specialty chemical segments.

Revenue Breakdown (Q4FY25/TTM):
- By Segment (FY25):
- Pharmaceutical Intermediates & APIs: Fastest growing, revenue up 4x YoY in Q4, now a major contributor[3].
- Contrast Media Intermediates: Stabilized after H1 dip, sees renewed validation and commercial sales; new launches in pipeline[3].
- High-Intensity Sweeteners: Marginal growth, focused on FMCG relationships, rationalized product portfolio.

- Geography (FY25):
- Europe: ~75–78% of revenue (mainly Norway, rest of Europe)
- India: ~12%
- Rest of World: 10–12%.

- Product Line (Q4FY25):
- CMI: 44.7% of revenue (9MFY25)
- Sweeteners: 11–12%
- Pharma Intermediates & APIs: Remainder; growing at the fastest pace.

Business Model:
Firmly B2B, with long-term supply agreements and strong presence in regulated and export markets. There is no significant B2C exposure.

Key Customers:
- CMI: GE Healthcare, Guerbet, Bracco Imaging (together >70% of global CMI market)
- Sweeteners: Colgate-Palmolive, Unilever, Prinova US LLC
- Pharma Intermediates/APIs: Olon S.p.A, Hovione Farmaciência, Esperion Therapeutics.

Manufacturing Footprint:
Four facilities in Maharashtra (Shahad, Ambernath Units 1 & 2, Mahad), with new capacity additions and greenfield site at Dahej (Gujarat) in planning.
Combined key capacity at Ambernath and Mahad supports flexible product switching and customer audits.

Distribution Reach:
Supply to more than 16 global customers across Europe, North America, South America, and Asia; strong compliance orientation.

Promoter Group & Ownership:
- Promoters (Arora family): 86%
- Institutions (FII/DII): ~3%
- Retail: ~11%
- No major group companies reported. Management led by Akshay B. Arora (Chairman) and Shiven Arora (MD).

2. Business Model and Industry-Specific Unit Economics

Revenue Model:
- Sales from CMI, sweeteners, and custom pharma intermediate manufacturing via take-or-pay contracts and multiyear agreements[3].
- Backward integration of key starting materials (KSM) for contrast media boosts margins and supply resilience.

Industry KPIs:
- Gross margin: ~54.9% in Q4FY25 (stable YoY, improved sequentially)
- EBITDA margin: 41.1% in Q4 (full-year 36.7%, up >400bps YoY)
- Capacity utilization: 75% overall (up to 65% in new PI lines)
- Customer concentration: Key. Top 3 CMI customers account for a major share.
- Working capital cycle: Cash conversion cycle at 139 days (Q4FY25), increased with growth but now steady
- Fixed cost leverage: Margin uptick driven by new capacity absorption and larger scale

Gross Margin Drivers:
- Operational efficiency (automation, process engineering)
- Premium specialty products (advanced intermediates for NCEs)
- Reduced raw material import dependency via backward integration

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 05:29

Cement seems to be having a good quarter especially midcap cement if you see sagar cement results....ultratech also good nos

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

22 Jul 2025 03:50

blue jet running like its name... q1 exports of 3.9 cr usd which is 85% YoY growth and 20% QoQ. And still not priced in

@fundamental3

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 10:05

BEML: CO APPROVED STOCK SPLIT IN THE RATIO OF 1: 2

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 10:05

INDIAMART

Mgmnt Says:

- Collection growth seen b/w 10-12% in FY26
- Paying Subs could increase by ~2000 each quarter
- Margins in steady state seen b/w 33-35%
- Expect 6-8% ARPU Growth
- Churn Ratio should reduce in H2

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 09:25

JSW Steel says

💪 Domestic steel demand resilient
🤞 Hopes that Chinese prices have bottomed
👍 Q2FY26 volumes will recover post shutdowns
🤞 Optimistic of a favorable verdict on BPSL case

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 07:59

Can Fin Homes says

FY26 Guidance 👇
+13% YoY growth in AUM
₹10,500-11,000 cr disbursements
NIMs at 3.5%
ROA around 2.1-2.2% & ROE at ~17%

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

21 Jul 2025 04:16

Mutual Funds on Steroids:
₹50K Cr+ AUM Schemes
Multiply 7x Since 2023

@Stockupdate9