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XAUUSD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Gold reached an all-time high. The gold (XAU) price reached an all-time high on Tuesday as the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September increased.
Possible effects for traders:
Gold has gained 6.36% over the past four weeks and 25.16% over the last 12 months. Gold reached $2,480-a record high-as hopes for a rate cut persisted, despite a rise in U.S. retail sales strengthening the U.S. dollar. This surge followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Monday statement. He expressed 'greater confidence' that inflation is slowing towards the central bank's 2% target due to reduced price pressures and a slowing economy. U.S. retail sales indicator for June remained unchanged month-over-month, surpassing expectations of a 0.3% decline. Additionally, the June retail sales figure, excluding autos, outperformed the forecast of a 0.1% rise and increased by 0.4%.
China, the top gold consumer, still maintains a strong appetite for bullion, even though it paused purchases in May and June. According to policy insiders, industry experts, and data, this is due to China's bullion holdings remaining low amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. 'Gold's ability to find support in any condition this year is worth highlighting,' noted Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodity strategist Vivek Dhar. 'While we think gold prices face uncertainty in coming months, we think the uncertainty has a positive skew, raising the risk that gold rises above our forecast of $2,500 by the end of the year,' he added.
During the Asian trading window, XAUUSD rose but then started declining in the early hours of the European session. Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Building Permits report at 12:30 p.m. UTC today. A lower-than-expected figure will positively impact XAUUSD, potentially pushing the price towards $2,490. However, the pair may correct downwards if the number exceeds expectations.
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